Except downtown dayton is 30-40 minutes to downtown cincy and 25 + % of Dayton works in cincy (the thresh hold to start combining markets) but yea besides that you're spot on
I think MLS is going to want to plug some geographic holes, which will factor into the franchise decisions. The way I see it, there are cities competing for specific spots: Miami/Tampa are fighting for a spot. Nashville/Charlotte/Raleigh are fighting for another spot Sacramento/San Diego are fighting for a third spot. Phoenix/San Antonio/St. Louis are looking at spot 27. Detroit/Cincinnati/Indy are fighting for the last spot.
I may be wrong, but I think MLS strongly favors media market size as their metric for expansion markets. Yeah, I think they'd like to fill out the map, if there are suitable bids to choose from in each of the groups you laid out. But I'm skeptical that the chips will fall so neatly. It'll be very interesting to see if the league is willing to forego, say, another team in the Southeast in favor of two Midwest teams (Cincy and Detroit). Or two California or Florida teams. Or a third Texas team. It's a possibility that, at the end of this process, 11 of the 25 domestic teams in MLS are from three states (CA, FL, and TX).
Yes, you are are probably correct, but they don't use as their only metric. Otherwise putting a stadium outside the urban core would not be a concern as it doesn't impact television. I think there is some informal arithmetic, that the population closest to the stadium is most valuable, followed by city residents, declining as you move further into the suburbs, and lowest in value as you approach other cities with their own identity. This to me goes to the problem with Raleigh. Will the surrounding college fans living outside Raleigh, identify with a professional team in the city, just because they happen to be in the same TV market? It's possible, but even by DMAs, Raleigh is still only 7/12.
It's not just Raleigh though, it's the whole triangle area. If they can encompass the entire triangle it would be an absolute home run. If*
I meant that the league uses it when deciding between the different expansion bids, not when individual bidders decide where to locate their stadium. All expansion hopefuls (except San Diego and Phoenix, apparently) will need to build their stadia in their respective downtowns in order to be taken seriously by the league. I think the demographics in the Triangle align very well with MLS' target fan base, and the college students account for a small fraction of that. Will UNC or Duke students come to downtown Raleigh for MLS matches? Some probably will. A lot more will come from NC State, which is less than a mile from downtown and has an enrollment of 35,000. But I still don't think that college students would account for more than 10-15% of ticket sales.
Which is a terrible metric as "downtown" in American cities doesn't always mean something positive. Especially in western and the "new south" sprawl metropolises.
One example of this which comes to mind is San Antonio. Toyota Park is one of the easiest places to reach for most people around the city, and definitely more so than downtown would be. There are downsides to each bid, but stadiums outside downtown aren't always among them.
I dont think that at all, the bids are going to be chosen by who is ready and can not bounce their checks.
But then it comes back to the question from the OP, if all other things being equal, which markets do you think MLS would prefer to have in slots 24-28?
There's a good argument to be made that there's more money for the league in creating more clusters and thus rivalries than spreading out the spots to fill holes on a map. ESPN can get more viewers for Portland Seattle than Portland NE. Maybe having Nashville Atlanta and Raleigh all operating near each other is a better deal
rivalries are what makes soccer great! orlando = miami and tampa sa = dallas and houston sac= sj and a bit farther lafc/gals cinc= chicago columbus phx = lafc/gals, rsl and cr nash= atl, cinc, columbus
I think the powers that be would love to fill some geographic holes, but in the end, quality of ownership group, stadium plan, and market demographics/growth projections are going to be the deciding factors. Let's say, for example, that Cincy fills their $100 million funding gap for a downtown stadium, and Detroit also agrees to Gilbert and Gores' deal to take over the jail site for their stadium. MLS would not say "oh, well, we only want one Midwest team, so it's one or the other." They would both very likely be chosen. There is still too much unknown about the bids to fairly handicap the race at this point. But we are getting closer to knowing how the chips will start falling when certain things either happen or don't happen. - St. Louis: If the St. Louis ownership group decides to fill their $60 million funding gap with private funds, they are in, no matter what happens with any other bids. (I would guess this is very unlikely to happen, but I would guess that StL's investment group is at least considering, if not actively courting, additional investors.) - San Diego: If MLS decides to postpone a decision on 27/28 until EOY 2018, and San Diego votes in favor of Soccer City in their 2018 election, San Diego is in, no matter what happens with any other bids. (I would not be surprised to see this happen.) - Sacramento: Unless a miracle happens in both St. Louis and San Diego between now and November, or MLS decides to delay all expansion announcements until next year, Sacramento is in, no matter what happens with any other bids. - Detroit: If Detroit gets to build their stadium at the downtown jail site, they are in. (I have no idea how likely or unlikely that is at this point, but I am pessimistic. I doubt that the city will accept the proposed deal from Gilbert and Gores. If they don't, then we will need to see what kind of Plan B they have.) - Cincinnati: If Cincinnati gets funding for their downtown stadium, they are in. But if they only get funding to build a stadium in Newport, KY, they would need virtually all of the bids below, and at least one above, to fail. (Based on articles I've read recently, funding for the downtown site is not looking good.) - Charlotte: If Charlotte closes the funding gap for their proposed stadium, and enough of the above bids fail, they are in. (This still seems unlikely. Their city council is reconsidering stadium funding, and may vote this summer to approve funding, but may only approve $30 million, not the $43.75 million they asked. If the city only approves $30 million, will the county also only approve $30 million? If so, will Marcus Smith come up with the $27.5 million gap?) - Phoenix: If Phoenix can put together an investment group that can fully fund their (seemingly expensive) stadium plan, and enough of the above bids fail, they are in. (I have no idea how likely or unlikely that is at this point). - Nashville: If MLS finds Nashville's state fairgrounds to be a suitable site for their proposed stadium, and they receive the tax breaks and funding they are seeking, and enough of the above bids fail, AND Charlotte's bid fails, they are in. (I don't see MLS accepting more than one Southeast team unless no good Midwest/Southwest candidates emerge. And I know nothing about their state fairgrounds, other than it is the proposed site for their SSS). - Tampa: If Miami falls through, Tampa could vault to the top four, but otherwise, many bids would likely need to fail before they get in (I think). - Raleigh: If Raleigh announces that their stadium site is in downtown Raleigh, and will be 100% privately financed, and if enough of the above bids fail, AND both Charlotte and Nashville's bids fail, they are in. (We are supposed to hear more stadium plan details, including location, from Steve Malik this month, but the clock is ticking fast on them. If they don't produce a viable downtown SSS plan soon, they will remain near the bottom of the list.) - San Antonio: I feel like I'm giving San Antonio short shrift, but without a downtown stadium plan, they need almost all of the above bids to fail before they get in. - Indianapolis: Indy really needs to have the perfect stadium plan, and then have almost all of the above bids fail. Predictions: 24. Miami 25. Sacramento 26. Phoenix 27. Detroit 28. Raleigh These predictions will continue to change with expected news on several bids throughout the summer. I'll update my rankings when we know more.
What's so special about a stadium site being in downtown Raleigh as opposed to a more accessible location in the Triangle?
I understand where you're coming from. Andy made a good point not too long ago about the difficulty defining "downtown" in some larger southern markets, and Raleigh is a good example. Downtown Raleigh is at the eastern edge of the Triangle, so it is farther away for folks in Durham and Chapel Hill than other potential stadium sites in the middle. I think NCFC could very easily split the distance between Raleigh and Durham/Chapel Hill and build a stadium somewhere near RDU, or perhaps North Hills or Cary. (I would include Durham, but I think Malik has said the proposed stadium will be in Wake County.) But I think that decision would doom their bid, since it runs counter to MLS' explicit desire to be in the urban core, and for the Triangle, much as I love downtown Durham, Raleigh's downtown provides the greatest number of people who fit MLS' target demographic (young, educated, professional, disposable income). If stadium location did not matter so much in the eyes of MLS, I would not hinge Raleigh's chances on where Malik decides to build. But I think they know that the type of sports fan who they can most easily attract - the white male in his 20s or 30s who sees the Timbers on TV and feels drawn to that sort of supporters culture - that fan most likely lives downtown, and although he would gladly march to the downtown stadium, he may not drive to the burbs for a match. It's the same reason I think NCFC in the NASL would draw twice as much if they played in DTR as opposed to a stadium in Cary only 6 miles from DTR.
Detroit and Miami are nowhere near where they need to be shovel-wise. On the other hand, Cincinnati has options both in Northern Kentucky and Cincinnati proper along with a nice interim arrangement with the University of Cincinnati at Nippert Stadium. As well, Tampa Bay seems all set and would be a very strong candidate city if the Rowdies owner did not have a problematic reputation. In short, Detroit is not in the running. Miami seems to be coming around but Beckham still has hurdles to jump because the Miami-Dade county government is rather lukewarm towards his bid. Miami, at this point, might be ready to come into the league as the 27th or 28th expansion candidate if Beckham stays the course. So, my guess is that Cincinnati, Sacramento and Tampa Bay currently are best positioned to come in as teams no. 24, 25 & 26. I don't understand why you rank Raleigh so highly, frankly. Nashville and Phoenix seem to have extremely viable bids that offer MLS so much more over the long run as the 27th or 28th expansion city as media markets. Miami probably will beat out one of Nashville or Phoenix for the 27th or 28th slot because MLS has more or less promised him an expansion team when he signed to play with the Galaxy in 2005. San Antonio, whose bid is backed by the Spurs ownership, ought to be a solid candidate for the 27th or 28th slot but for the fact that Garber seems to prefer Austin.
Really confused where this comes from. Last I heard they were looking for 100 million from the government. They can have all the attendance they want, talk about locations left and right, select architects and draw pictures, but until they figure out how they will finance it, and get all the permits and approvals, Cincy is no closer than St. Louis.
Miami is much further along than Detroit - actually, they are much further along than all but Sacramento. That doesn't mean that they are shovel-ready, or that they will ultimately pass all necessary hurdles to finalize their stadium plan. But Detroit is nowhere near where Miami is at this point, and if the city doesn't agree to the proposed deal on the jail site, they may never get off the ground. Cincy is also in a tenuous position. If they are not able to fund a downtown stadium, they will probably get passed by. And it doesn't sound like they will close their $100m funding gap unless they build in KY, and who knows what MLS will think of that. I'm not unbiased when it comes to Raleigh. I hope they have a strong bid, a stadium location that MLS likes, and the fortune of other bids failing to make the grade. It's possible that MLS covets Charlotte or Nashville more. I think that a really good Southeast bid will be competitive for 25-28. Who knows if any of the three will ultimately pass muster. We should know a lot more about Raleigh this month though.
The NKY stadium, and I can't stress this enough, is literally across the river from the Reds' stadium. Like .5 miles. The NKY site is closer to downtown than Nippert stadium. The NKY site has a TIF district already in place. If Cincy proper says no to a TIF district or if Hamilton County says no to FCC using the current stadium sales tax (which already exists) then they'll go to NKY with no problem. The NKY stadium is pretty much a done deal at this point.
They have the financing to build at one spot.... personally I think this is a great view and it's actually closer to downtown than where they are playing currently, at the U of Cincy
I think you're right that it's a done deal - FCC is not likely to get the TIF anywhere except Newport. I've stayed in Covington before and know its proximity to Cincy - I actually walked across the bridge to go to a Reds game. I don't think MLS would quibble too much about a stadium in Newport. But I could be wrong. It was booed by supporters at their stadium event a couple months ago. Are there fans who would show up for matches at Nippert but not Newport?
The number of "Cincinnati only" fans is tiny. I'd argue that putting it in Newport would attract more fans. I used to live in the eastern exurbs and we'd park at Newport to go to Reds games. If a downtown stadium can be done, I think people would prefer that, but most of the chatter I've seen of the opinion that if Newport gets them a bid, so be it.
It'll be interesting to see how they bridge the $100 million funding gap for Newport. I keep seeing a TIF thrown around like a panecea, but the devil is in the details. Will NKY be willing (or able) to finance $100 million with the TIF? There's a ton of factors at play, and other interests/commitments for that tax money (i.e. Public safety). A TIF will likely get them part of they way, but what then?
The TIF was expanded in 2007 by the state, so you're technically dealing with the state. But, they said they have a memorandum of understanding for the Newport location which means they could start whenever necessary. It's been signed off on. New port, however, is actively lobbying for the team and is rumored to be offering extra incentives on their own. All that being said, if Hamilton county decides to give them the most basic TIF zoned area, they will be in Hamilton county (Ohio side of cincy)