Rank the expansion teams

Discussion in 'MLS: Expansion' started by jabbaahabbaa, Jun 10, 2017.

  1. sitruc

    sitruc Member+

    Jul 25, 2006
    Virginia
    Of course the rumors of the final DC stadium design...

    :sick:
     
  2. Cincy Liverpool fan

    Fc Cincinnati
    Jun 16, 2015
    Cincinnati, USA
    Club:
    Cincinnati Kings
    I trust, the community trusts carl Lindner III his family isn't wealthy, they are an institution
    LOL, We're all super excited about the stadium. Even if we don't get to the mls the fans want it built. They aren't actually looking for straight cash to do it. Already have the investors, team wants tax breaks though. Kentucky is willing to give them....but we would like it to be on the Ohio side if possible. Which is why they are still haggling with the cincy government. Still, the Newport location is a great one. Newport on the levee is a bar and entertainment district sitting directly across the river from Paul brown stadium and Great American Ballpark
     
  3. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Good luck!
     
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  4. Cincy Liverpool fan

    Fc Cincinnati
    Jun 16, 2015
    Cincinnati, USA
    Club:
    Cincinnati Kings
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  5. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    LaMarcus Aldridge is paid $19.7 million per year by the San Antonio Spurs. That's more than the entire roster salary of any MLS team not named TFC (whose parent organization also owns the Raptors). You can expect they will spend smartly, but compared to the NBA, MLS salaries are mostly chump change to them. There are also no other Major League summer sports to compete with for the city's attention. I could easily see SA being another Orlando.
     
  6. Len

    Len Member+

    Club: Dallas Tornado
    Jan 18, 1999
    Everywhere and Nowhere.....I'm the wind, baby.
    And one might want to check with the good folks at Miami Beckham United about how important those back room shadows might be.

    Good point. When discussing expansion, I think it's always prudent to remember SLC.
     
  7. Red Card

    Red Card Member+

    Mar 3, 1999
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And Fairbanks would fill out the northwest, and Honolulu would fill out the far west.
     
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  8. 30King

    30King Member+

    Jul 22, 2013
    Rocklin, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    It's the fourth largest media market of the twelve contenders. It checks that box too

    Sac is roughly the same size as Orlando- it all depends on how ambitious the ownership wants to be. Personally, I think they'll fall somewhere between Orlando and Portland- maybe grab a $2-3 million DP, but also lean heavily on developing Homegrowns (esp. considering the breadbasket of soccer that Sac sits in)
     
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  9. The Franchise

    The Franchise Member+

    Nov 13, 2014
    Bakersfield, CA
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fairbanks!? You're one of those anti-Sitka trolls, aren't you?
     
  10. The Franchise

    The Franchise Member+

    Nov 13, 2014
    Bakersfield, CA
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There's a resilient belief that Sacramento is small. There are a few possible reasons for this, and other California cities being very large is where I'd start. Compared with greater LA or SJ-SF-Oak, it certainly is small. But compared with other possible expansion cities, it's slightly larger than most, and only Phoenix, Detroit, and Miami are substantially larger.
     
  11. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    #36 nlsanand, Jun 22, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2017

    Was just in Cinci for a wedding (my first time). Here are my hot takes....

    a) FCC is extremely relevant in the media, and in the (admittedly somewhat hipster) neighbourhoods I visited. I saw badges in pubs everywhere.
    b) 20K average in USL should be clear evidence that this market should have a team.
    c) Nippert Stadium seemed to be well located from I could see in that area around Short Vine. I'm assuming that helps with the current draw.
    d) The view that Cinci needs an SSS when Nippert is working for them seems ********ing crazy. The revenue upside can possibly outmatch the ability to avoid a large scale capital investment. Anyone using a DCF model would not make an SSS a requirement.
    e) If the option is taking a well placed team in Clifton/U Cinci/Auburn HIll area and moving it to Kentucky and somehow demanding public subsidies to get a smaller stadium. WTF is the business case here for demanding this of a bid?

    Random question: Does Nippert not allow alcohol sales or something?
     
  12. Cincy Liverpool fan

    Fc Cincinnati
    Jun 16, 2015
    Cincinnati, USA
    Club:
    Cincinnati Kings
    We are an old German city. When world war 1 hit the federal government dragged German Shepards to the city square and killed them infront of our people. I only share that to tell you how German the city was. As a city founded by German immigrants, beer is part of our culture. Nippert for a better part of 100 years has served alcohol. It serves so much alcohol that craft beer vendors are allowed to set up shop inside the stadium. Nippert, during the last 100 years, was at times the only college stadium to serve alcohol in it.

    To answer your question, you bet your ass we have beer in nippert.
     
  13. BookerT

    BookerT Member

    Mar 27, 2007
    NC
    Here are a few different ways to rank the expansion candidates.

    One caveat - I'm including Miami because I think that their inclusion/exclusion will have ramifications for other bids (especially Tampa).

    First, if all the cities had an equally attractive, shovel-ready, 100% privately funded, downtown SSS plan, with the same deep-pocketed ownership group, I think the MLS expansion committee would rank the bids as follows:

    1. Miami (connection to Latin and South America)
    2. St. Louis (soccer pedigree, media market size, geography)
    3. San Diego
    4. Detroit (largest Midwest media market without MLS)
    5. Charlotte (largest Southeast media market without MLS)

    Other than stadium plan/funding and ownership, media market size and geography are MLS' biggest expansion priorities. So, the biggest Midwest market (Detroit) and Southeast market (Charlotte) get in over Phoenix and Tampa for the last two spots.

    Here is the rest of this hypothetical ranking:

    6. Phoenix (loses out to San Diego for Southwest, because MLS seems to like that market more)
    7. Tampa (loses out to Miami)
    8. Nashville (loses out to Charlotte for the Southeast)
    9. Sacramento (loses out to San Diego)
    10. Raleigh (loses out to Charlotte)
    11. San Antonio
    12. Cincinnati (loses out to Detroit for Midwest)
    13. Indy (loses out to Detroit)

    Second ranking is how I think the MLS expansion committee would rank the bids as they currently stand, given their actual stadium plans (or lack thereof), financial standing, quality of ownership group, geography, and media market size.

    1. Sacramento (MLS would rather be in San Diego, but there's not a better bid out there right now)
    2. Miami (they seem to be farther along in securing a stadium site than most of the other bids, plus MLS still wants to be in Miami much more than Tampa)
    3. Detroit (more likely to secure a downtown site for SSS than Cincy or Indy, market size unmatched in Midwest)
    4. Phoenix (large, desirable market, helps fill out map)
    5. Nashville (billionaire owner, support of local government in form of recently passed sales tax law that helps pay off stadium/debt)
    -----
    6. Tampa (market size and success of Rowdies a plus, but stadium plan offers little/no future expansion, also do MLS owners want to bring Bill Edwards into their club?)
    7. Cincinnati (would their 15K fans show up for games across the river in Kentucky and spend substantially more for tickets?)
    8. San Antonio (SSE ownership group is well established, but stadium on outskirts of town)
    9. Raleigh (fastest growing market, owner has deep pockets and connections to MLS via USSF, but until they secure a downtown stadium site, not a top five contender)
    10. San Diego (if the ownership group had not made their bid so contingent on public support, they would be near the top of the list)
    11. St. Louis (reliance on public funds for stadium was their downfall too)
    12. Charlotte (ditto)
    13. Indy (forgive my ignorance, but I haven't heard anything about their bid - do they have a viable stadium plan?)

    My final ranking is my prediction for what will actually happen in November, based on some speculation about how the bids progress between now and then:

    1. Miami (ownership adds investors and secures remaining land and city approval to build stadium)
    2. Sacramento
    3. Detroit (ownership secures downtown stadium site, perhaps the jail site)
    4. Phoenix
    5. Raleigh (Malik announces secured downtown stadium site, still commits to 100% private funding, and Nashville/Cincy final stadium bids are less attractive in the eyes of MLS)
    -----
    6. San Diego (ownership continues to make some noise about a special election, but city council ultimately keeps it pushed back to 2018)
    7. Nashville
    8. Cincy (FCC continues to draw well, but ownership announces stadium site in Kentucky)
    9. Tampa
    10. San Antonio
    11. St. Louis
    12. Charlotte
    13. Indy

    I won't be surprised if only one of my top five actually make it. There's too many uncertainties about each bid at this point. Hopefully things become clearer over the next couple months.
     
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  14. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Bingo.

    That said it's interesting to see rankings and reasonings from different places. Different perspectives, different prejudices, different information.

    It's like we're trying to assemble a 500 piece jigsaw puzzle with only 300 pieces, and nobody can see more than 20 or 30 of them. The shared knowledge helps, but the danger becomes confirmation bias. Detroit is the big market, so we see a way for them to be in. Sacramento "deserves it" and has everything in place, so we see that. Malik is on the USSF board and pulled in an NWSL team a month after saying he'd have one within six months, so Raleigh must be in, Cincy draws more than the Crew so they must be in and so on.
     
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  15. BookerT

    BookerT Member

    Mar 27, 2007
    NC
    https://www.si.com/planet-futbol/2017/06/23/mls-expansion-28-teams-favorites-timeline

    Brian Straus questions whether there will be enough viable bids come decision time.

    It's a fair question to ponder at this point. I do think Miami gets announced in the next couple months. Then Sac and one other by the end of November.

    What'll make things interesting is if we don't get an announcement about Miami sooner than November. Would that mean Sac gets in as #24 and a decision on 25 and 26 gets pushed back til 2018? Who knows!
     
  16. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    I'm guessing Miami gets slot 24, but they may not be the 24th team to take the field.

    I, too, expect Sac and one other (no clue) to be announced this year.

    I think MLS is going to sit on Cincinnati as a "last resort" or threat to the other bids to get their shit together. But due to it's lack of market size and relative lack of growth and the NFL and MLB already in town, I'm also guessing MLS would prefer to find other candidates. Pushing them back a year also gives them an extra year to try and hold their attendance (both San Antonio and Indy have had slowly eroding - but still strong - crowds since their launches).

    The real interesting thing will be chase for the 27/28 slots next year.
     
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  17. The Franchise

    The Franchise Member+

    Nov 13, 2014
    Bakersfield, CA
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It depends on what is meant by viable, and when if one expects all four announced at once, or two this year and two sometime next year. Miami looks on track again. Sacramento is in for #25. There will be one more ready for #26; there's too many good bids for that to not see at least one of them come together. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't all four at once, but it'll happen by early next year.
     
  18. jabbaahabbaa

    jabbaahabbaa Member

    Toronto FC
    Canada
    May 12, 2017
    Testy...
    1. If you are going to number your points, don't end with 1. Just saying.
    2. Let me paraphrase you: "it is not one of the smallest markets unless you include any measurements that show it one of the smallest markets". MSA's are frequently used, if they were useless, they wouldn't exist. Being low is a negative, even if Raleigh fares better by other measurements.
    3. If you are looking for nuance, I said it was the most populous state without a team and one of the smaller markets in the same point. You understand the definition of the word, correct?
    4. The growth trajectory is impressive, but it is growing from a much smaller base. It will take decades before it surpasses even a mid-sized market like St. Louis which is shrinking, never mind larger metros which are growing, albeit slower.
    5. I ranked using available information. If everything was perfectly known, we would already know which team would get in. Using what we know, Raleigh is not a favorite.
     
  19. jabbaahabbaa

    jabbaahabbaa Member

    Toronto FC
    Canada
    May 12, 2017
    Was meant as a joke based on other rankings I've read.
     
  20. jabbaahabbaa

    jabbaahabbaa Member

    Toronto FC
    Canada
    May 12, 2017
    I think there is little doubt that if a Cinci stadium is a slam dunk, it would be very hard to say no to this team. Your point that a deal is already in place seems to contradict every other article I've read, do you have a source?
     
  21. Cincy Liverpool fan

    Fc Cincinnati
    Jun 16, 2015
    Cincinnati, USA
    Club:
    Cincinnati Kings
    #46 Cincy Liverpool fan, Jun 24, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2017
    In 2007 the governor of Kentucky signed an expansion of the TIF for Newport. A tif is a financing system where a developer builds something on a specific plot of land. The development is then "tax free" so to speak. The state estimates your expected property taxes for 10-20 years and gives you your taxes back up front. Instead of paying property taxes you pay back the money given over those 10-20 years. It's already in place, the land is vacant, the team has a memorandum of understanding (approval). They could start building tomorrow. Problem is, the fan base is really prejudice against Kentucky even though the stadium would literally be directly opposite the river from great American. Newport is the fall back plan.

    Welcome to Cincinnati where we cut off our nose to spite the face.
     
  22. Cincy Liverpool fan

    Fc Cincinnati
    Jun 16, 2015
    Cincinnati, USA
    Club:
    Cincinnati Kings
  23. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Unless you look at demographics and demographic trends. Not only is Cincy smaller than any current MLS media market, it's likely to continue to fall down the national list as faster growing markets continue to pass it.

    I see Cincy as MLS's back pocket bid. To put pressure on the markets MLS would prefer to have. If the other markets don't get their shit together, I see Cincy in the 27/28 pair (if things continue as they are.)

    Professional sports leagues have become very sophisticated in using the threat of other markets to get what they want. How many MLB teams got new stadiums based on the threat of relocation to Tampa (which eventually got an expansion team) or DC (which eventually got the Expos. The NHL has used Vegas and Kansas City to extort new stadiums in Pittsburgh and other places.

    I see MLS using Cincy as pressure on the other bids. But I also see Cincy getting in if the pressure doesn't work.
     
  24. Cincy Liverpool fan

    Fc Cincinnati
    Jun 16, 2015
    Cincinnati, USA
    Club:
    Cincinnati Kings
    Not nit picking but we are the fastest growing city in the Midwest. (Especially since half of Kentucky is pouring into our greater cincy area and north east & east Ohio migrate to the greater cincy area (coal miners escaping the destruction of their way of life) Dayton and cincy media markets are on track to merge in 2020 which would make it the 18th rank media maket.
     
  25. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    If you're going to include Dayton, why not Lexington or Louisville? At that rate, in another 20 years you could throw in Columbus and Indy, but then you'd already have a team, so maybe that works against your point.

    Good luck with that.
     

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