R16 July 2 Brasil v. Mexico [R]

In.

 

My friend hasn't said anything since Mexico lost against Sweden...he's been oddly quiet ever since it was official that Brazil would be their next opponent....

God if Mexico loses then I have to buy my coworker some drinks so that he'd feel better. -_-

 

Tell him this exact words: "Hey, no te agüites. Podría ser peor, podrías irle a los gringos".

He'll feel better.

 

I said it in the other thread and I will say it here. "Mexico is the stone in Brazil's shoe."
Brazil better watch out because Osorio saw how Costa Rica made Brazil work for their victory. And Mexico has more talent and more confidence than los Ticos.
Should be a great game.

 

I don't expect Mexico to win, but I do expect them to make Brazil sweat. Mexico's speed upfront should be a challenge for Tite's team.

 

This is going to be a crazy game I know it.

 

This game will be a very tough one. Osorio will try to surprise us. I really hope Fagner and Filipe Luis show a great performance like they did against Serbia. My prediction is Brazil 2-1 Mexico. Goals: Neymar, Lozano, Casemiro.

 

Everything you said is true, but I doubt Mexico can play a 100% defensive game against Brazil like Costa Rica did. Mexico has way more offensive quality and they will attack (and I think Brazil will give them space for that, we've been doing this every game). Brazil will probably wait for Mexico's mistakes to create better chances.

 

For what it’s worth

Elo have Brazil at 2149, Mexico at 1843. A 200 point difference implies an expectation of 76% Brazil win to Mexico’s 24%

 

Spain-Russia was about the same gap: 2010-1710. We know how that turned out.

 

Yep. The game that was the biggest insult to the game in World Cup history

 

Going to be a scorcher in Samara tomorrow..

The two teams played in the heat in Fortaleza in 2014. Aside from shots on goal, a generally even match that ended 0-0, with Ochoa making several great saves.

 

A couple of points on this.

1. Even assuming those odds are roughly correct, if ELO predicted a ~25% chance of Russia winning and Russia in fact won, that doesn't mean the forecast was wrong. It could just mean we're in the 25% scenario. If you were to play the same match in parallel universes with identical starting conditions 100 times, based on what we saw, surely Spain would have won that game at least more often than not (maybe Iniesta's long shot goes in, or Piqué doesn't give up a penalty, etc.).

2. Russia is a host playing at home. Historically, that makes a huge difference, and it isn't factored into a simple comparison of raw ELO ratings.

3. Spain's ELO rating is based largely on its pre-WC form under Lopetegui, who was fired 2 days before the competition began despite pleas from the players. The resulting locker room turmoil and lackluster form under Hierro likely isn't fully priced into the ratings, which arguably don't discount prior form enough in this sort of situation.

 

This is the 5th World Cup confrontation between these two teams, and Brazil won 3 and drew one. It must be noted that while the advantage in both wins and goals scored is Brazil's (Mexico has never scored on Brazil in World Cup play), those 3 wins are from decades ago, and in more recent time, Mexico has been a thorn in the flesh for Brazil. Brazil had many shots on goal in 2014 but Ochoa was clutch.

Going back to 2004, Brazil and Mexico played twice in the Confederations Cup and twice as well in the Copa América. No draws, with each team winning once in each tournament. The 2014 World Cup match was the first draw in an official match ever - all other draws were in friendly games.

The last Mexican victory over Brazil was a 2-0 result in a friendly in 2012. In 2015, Brazil returned the same score to Mexico as it was the winner.

Overall, the statistics favor Brazil, but Mexico is definitely a difficult opponent for Brazil.

 

Good article in the New York times by veteran Brasilian football journalist Juca Kfouri.

It's in Spanish but totally readable.

Brasil y México, matar o morir en Samara

 

Mexico usually plays Brazil very well and Mexico has a history of playing a great game in the R16 against the elite only to lose in heart breaking ways. So history suggests a close one goal Brazil win. But so far, history has meant jack-sh*t in this tournament. I would not be surprised by anything from a 2 goal Mexico win to a 3 goal Brazil win.

 

Forza Alisson

 

IT will be interesting to see how things turn out when it comes to the crowd and atmosphere.
Mexico was by far the home team in the stands in each of their first three matches (and I think it helped them get 6 points).

I do not expect that for this one. It will probably be half yellow/half green around the stadium.

 

If Brazil scores at the begin, then it is a game over to Mexico. They will have to go forward and will probably take more goals doing that.

 

Ochoa is going to have to come up huge like he did 4 years ago.

I am not sure he can.

 

It is not realistic for him to do that, but he's been in great form lately so, who knows?