R16 July 2 Belgium v. Japan [R]

Discussion in 'World Cup 2018 - Knockout Rounds' started by soccernutter, Jun 30, 2018.

  1. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hi everyone,

    A friendly reminder: we're all here for the football. With that in mind, we here are taking a zero-tolerance policy towards expressions of racism, sexism, discrimination based on sexual orientation, xenophobia, ad hominem attacks, insults (towards a group of people, countries, or fellow posters) and trolling. Infractions will get you booked - and if you ask where was your warning, this is it. If you see a fellow poster insulting you or a part of your identity (race, sex, nationality, etc.)? Don't respond in kind - REPORT IT. It is the fastest way for us mods to handle the offending posts.

    So, with that said, good luck to both sides, and let's enjoy!

    The Moderators of Big Soccer
     
  2. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    [​IMG]

    Belgium

    v.

    Japan

    [​IMG]

    Rostov Arena, Rostov-On-Don (capacity: 43,472)

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Philip J. Fry

    Philip J. Fry Member+

    Jun 12, 2013
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Needs more Richard Tex Tex.
     
  4. Froboy69

    Froboy69 Member+

    Mar 25, 2011
    Lemoore, CA
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    Poor Japan. :(
     
  5. user02B

    user02B New Member

    Jun 27, 2018
    I'm expecting a low scoring game and belgium to win (probably like 70-30 odds). But who knows how japan might change their playstyle in this matchup though. We'd imagine they certainly are going to be starting their full roster, unlike what happened against poland.
     
  6. Volrath

    Volrath Member

    Jun 28, 2007
    Why low scoring?
     
  7. Froboy69

    Froboy69 Member+

    Mar 25, 2011
    Lemoore, CA
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    I wonder how the mentality of the teams are.
     
  8. grassman

    grassman Member

    May 18, 2006
    Toronto
    Club:
    SL Benfica
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
  9. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Per Elo ratings, that 70-30 is probably optimistic for Japan. Belgium sits at 2001, Japan at 1708, for an odds of 84% Belgium win, 16% Japan
     
  10. BUDOKAN

    BUDOKAN Member

    May 31, 2006
    Tokyo
    Club:
    Yokohama F Marinos
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    Agree.
    I guess 16% includes PSO win.
     
  11. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    As a Neutral I want this game to be close but it is going to take a very disciplined game for Japan to stop all of Belgium's fire power.
    I say something like 3-1 Belgium.
     
  12. user02B

    user02B New Member

    Jun 27, 2018
    You should't be going off ELO when it proved to not be an accurate measurement.
     
  13. allthethings

    allthethings New Member

    Jul 10, 2007
    Everybody is so certain Belgium (and Brazil) will win today, but the question for us is not can they win, but can they win in 90 minutes? This is the sixth WC for which we have odds readily available, and to this point the record of dogs of 6.00 or above in this first knockout is 0-7-9.

    Here are the sides that have gotten draws in 90 in this round:

    Ireland v Spain
    Russia v Spain
    Chile v Brazil
    Switzerland v Argentina
    Paraguay v France
    Algeria v Germany
    Mexico v Argentina

    Four of the favorites on this list won in ET, and two won on PKs. Russia yesterday was only winner.
     
  14. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    I think many people are certain that Belgium will find a way to advance. And it should be in regulation.

    I don't think as many people are as confident about Brazil. Mexico always plays them tough. That one could go to ET.
     
  15. allthethings

    allthethings New Member

    Jul 10, 2007
    Also, 40 matches in this database (four 8th-final matches from 1998 are missing), and the over/under 2.5 tally is 13-27.
     
  16. allthethings

    allthethings New Member

    Jul 10, 2007
    People's confidence is reflected in the odds. Denmark-Croatia draw yesterday was 3.22, Russia-Spain was 4.30.

    Paraguay, Algeria and Mexico on that list were priced between 9.50 and 11.00 to win, and the draws were in the range of 4.20 to 5.50.
     
  17. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    Not everyone bets on games.
    Shocking I know.
     
    allthethings repped this.
  18. allthethings

    allthethings New Member

    Jul 10, 2007
    I should add that Brazil's other four 8th-round matches ended in Brazil wins (Chile, Chile, Belgium, Ghana), three of them overs.
     
  19. frideswide

    frideswide Member+

    Kumamoto Renaissance FC
    Feb 27, 2014
    København
    Club:
    Brøndby IF
    I've given up predictions in this WC... all of mine have been spectacularly wrong.
     
  20. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Yeah. It's a bit odd, since the Elo system was devised for chess which doesn't have draws. We could put in a draw with a three outcome logistic model, but none of us have gotten around to it.
     
  21. Phillyspur

    Phillyspur Member+

    Tottenham Hotspur
    England
    Mar 18, 2007
    Arroganistan
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Just hoping for a good game, with a winner before PKs. One can see Lukaku having his way against Japanese defenders. OTOH, too many overlook Japan's Brazilian influence and we've seen some nice examples of flair play from them too.
     
  22. BlueDamian

    BlueDamian Member+

    Jun 7, 2005
    In the shade
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    Let's go Belgium!

    [​IMG]

    Show us some pretty footy.
     
    GhostofBruceArena repped this.
  23. glennaldo_sf

    glennaldo_sf Member+

    Deportivo Wanka, Semen Padang, Dinamo Bender, Fotballaget Fart
    United States
    Nov 25, 2004
    Doha, Qatar
    Club:
    FL Fart Vang Hedmark
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Japan are basically the last hope of the rest of the world against UEFA and CONMEBOL. However, while I would normally root for the underdogs in these circumstances, I really want to see that Belgium vs Brazil quarterfinal.
     
    taylor repped this.
  24. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    I will root for whoever is playing better or makes me feel deserves to win. Ordinarily, that should be Belgium, particularly since they have been on fire and look particularly good against lesser teams. But Japan's coach, I heard, has said that he rates Japan equal to Belgium so it doesn't seem the Japanese will be lacking in confidence.

    Hopefully, it will be a good match. I worry Belgium might run up the score on Japan, but know that in football, nothing is certain and no one can count Japan out until this match is over.
     
    kennytt repped this.
  25. Steve Page

    Steve Page Member

    Oct 30, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Belgium expects their team to win today and handsomely. They have all the ingredients to go far in the tournament. The question is how well do they handle the pressure? They are yet to play in a pressured environment. Panama were one of the weakest teams in the tournament, Tunisia were poor and had to come at them, the England game was a non-event reserve fixture. Japan will work their socks off. If they can keep Belgium scoreless into the 2nd half will the superstars keep their composure? In all likelihood they will win and I expect them to win by two clear goals. Possibly more if they can score early. However, you never know and Japan are a proud team who will fight them to the end. They have a glimmer. I expect to learn about Belgium as a team today, what will they teach me?
     

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