[R] The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation [R]

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

This is purely anecdotal, so it's not what you wanted, but I had the 2007 numbers right here already, so ...

Code:

[B][u][SIZE="4"]2007[/SIZE][/u] - Projected vs Actual

     GP  W   L   D   PTS PPG   PRJ ACT DIF
DCU  25  15  06  04  49  1.96  59  55  +7%
NER  25  13  06  06  45  1.80  54  50  +8%
CDC  23  13  06  04  43  1.87  56  53  +6%
HOU  25  12  07  06  42  1.68  50  52  -3%
FCD  24  12  09  03  39  1.63  49  44  +11%
NYR  25  11  10  04  37  1.48  44  43  +3%
KCW  25  10  09  06  36  1.44  43  40  +8%
CHI  24  08  10  06  30  1.25  38  40  -6%
CMB  25  06  09  10  28  1.12  34  37  -9%
COL  24  07  10  07  28  1.17  35  35  0%
TFC  24  05  13  06  21  0.88  26  25  +5%
RSL  24  04  13  07  19  0.79  24  27  -12%
LAG  21  04  12  05  17  0.81  24  34  -29%

                        Average Diff:  -1%
                        Average Diff (without LA): +1.5%

ACT = Actual final points[/B]

With each passing game you would expect the difference to diminish as the projection trended toward the actual.

Like I said, it's purely anecdotal so for all I know it's a fluke. But I was actually surprised by that average difference.

But it's obviously still pretty unreliable in any individual case even in this single instance.

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Yes, I saw your earlier comment about the mis-ranking. Didn't show up as an issue last time I did this, but as you note New England is throwing things off this time. The magic number should be calculated on the basis of the 9th highest max points potential. I already fixed it in my spreadsheet. So the next update ...

But isn't the 9th highest MPP RSL's 51. So the Crew's M# is actually 10. No?

The tragic number is unaffected because that is based on actual current points.

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Found it. I was missing a draw for RSL. In fact, I'm thinking I must have originally omitted the entire RSL-Chicago game. Someone pointed out the Chicago error, which I fixed. Should have checked the RSL numbers before assuming the Chicago error was just typo.

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
01  CMB  24  6  11  09  04  42  1.75  53  60  08  25  19
02  HOU  26  4  11  07  08  40  1.54  46  52  10  17  11
03  CHI  25  5  10  09  06  39  1.56  47  54  11  19  13
04  LAG  25  5  09  11  05  38  1.52  46  53  12  18  12
05  SEA  25  5  09  10  06  37  1.48  44  52  13  17  11
06  CDC  23  7  11  03  09  36  1.57  47  57  14  22  16
07  COL  24  6  10  06  08  36  1.50  45  54  14  19  13
08  DCU  26  4  08  12  06  36  1.38  42  48  14  13  07
----------------------------------------------------------
09  RSL  25  5  09  07  09  34  1.36  41  49  16  14  08
10  TFC  25  5  09  07  09  34  1.36  41  49  16  14  08
11  NER  23  7  09  06  08  33  1.43  43  54  17  19  13
12  KCW  24  6  07  06  11  27  1.13  34  45  23  10  04
13  FCD  24  6  07  06  11  27  1.13  34  45  23  10  04
14  SJE  22  8  05  05  12  20  0.91  27  44  30  09  03
[COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  25  5  04  04  17  16  0.64  19  31  34  -04  -10[/COLOR]

GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG)
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 

- Sorted by PTS, then PPG.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]     GP  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
CMB  24  8  4  0  3  5  4  -06
CDC  23  8  1  2  3  2  7  -09
CHI  25  4  4  4  6  5  2  -10
HOU  26  7  4  1  4  3  7  -10
LAG  25  4  4  4  5  7  1  -11
NER  23  6  3  3  3  3  5  -14
COL  24  8  3  2  2  3  6  -14
SEA  25  6  5  2  3  5  4  -14
DCU  26  6  5  1  2  7  5  -14
TFC  25  7  3  3  2  4  6  -17
RSL  25  7  5  1  2  2  8  -17
KCW  24  3  3  5  4  3  6  -19
FDC  24  5  4  3  2  2  8  -21
SJE  22  5  3  4  0  2  8  -26
NYR  25  4  3  6  0  1  11 -35

Sorted by PCE, then least GP.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

CDC: @SEA, NYR, @DCU, KCW, SJE, @CHI, HOU
CHI: CMB, TFC, @LAG, @NER, CDC
CMB: @CHI, LAG, SEA, @NER, @DCE, NER
COL: @SJE, SJE, @KCW, NER, @FCD, @RSL
DCU: SJE, CDC, CMB, @KCW
FCD: @KCW, RSL, NER, @SJE, COL, @SEA
HOU: RSL, KCW, LAG, @CDC
KCW: FCD, COL, @HOU, @CDC, SEA, DCU
LAG: TFC, @CMB, CHI, @HOU, SJE
NER: @NYR, SEA, @FCD, @COL, CMB, CHI, @CMB
NYR: NER, @CDC, @SJE, @RSL, TFC
RSL: @HOU, @FCD, NYR, @TFC, COL
SEA: CDC, @NER, @CMB, @KCW, FCD
TFC: @LAG, @CHI, SJE, RSL, @NYR[/B]

As always, please point any errors.

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Could be worse!

What are you talking about? You've got lots to look forward to this year!

Heck, the MetroRedBullRotMasterStars could clinch this weekend.

And by clinch I mean last place.

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Whoops! Thanks, I'll fix that with the next update.

Looks the same as in the past, which IIRC is a bit tricky. Let's say DCU, the Revs and Toronto are tied for the last two spots at 45 points. So you set up a head to head table between all those teams and going through the tie-breakers, Toronto comes out on top with the Revs in second and DCU in third. So Toronto gets the seventh spot. But for the last spot you then have to discard the original table and set up a new table just between the Revs and DCU. It's actually quite possible that in this new head to head that DCU will top the Revs once you go through the tie-breakers, which means that DCU would get the nod even though on the three-way head to head they were the third worst team.

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Things didn't change much after last night aside from RSL and Toronto blowing their advantage over DCU. So I didn't rush to do an update. But I'll post one after today's game.

 

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

If the question last week was how screwed is DCU, the question this week is how screwed are RSL and TFC. RSL and TFC really needed wins to make a push for the 8th spot. Both lost. Now RSL and TFC have not merely lost the small game-in-hand advantage they had over DCU, but now DCU has kept its points advantage over them.

DC United also needed NER to lose, but NER drew with NYR. Yes, NER could have given itself a huge boost with a win. But don’t dismiss that draw (even if it was against the lowly NYR) because with it NER maintained its -14 pace, which sounds terrible but which is actually even with DCU. NER is still very strongly in the running to take the 8th spot.

Still, if there was a definite winner this week, it was DCU. DCU needed a lifeline, TFC and RSL threw one to them. The question now is whether DCU is capable of grabbing that lifeline.

The SS race seems awfully close to being settled.

Finally, SJE has a lot of games left (7). I'm thinking they're going to spoil somebody's playoff hopes. Will it be COL, DCU or TOR?

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
01  CMB  25  5  11  10  04  43  1.72  52  58  06  23  16
02  HOU  27  3  12  07  08  43  1.59  48  52  06  17  10
03  LAG  26  4  10  11  05  41  1.58  47  53  08  18  11
04  CHI  26  4  10  10  06  40  1.54  46  52  09  17  10
05  SEA  26  4  09  11  06  38  1.46  44  50  11  15  08
06  CDC  24  6  11  04  09  37  1.54  46  55  12  20  13
07  COL  25  5  10  07  08  37  1.48  44  52  12  17  10
08  DCU  26  4  08  12  06  36  1.38  42  48  13  13  06
----------------------------------------------------------
09  NER  24  6  09  07  08  34  1.42  43  52  15  17  10
10  RSL  26  4  09  07  10  34  1.31  39  46  15  11  04
11  TFC  26  4  09  07  10  34  1.31  39  46  15  11  04
12  KCW  25  5  08  06  11  30  1.20  36  45  19  10  03
13  FCD  25  5  07  06  12  27  1.08  32  42  22  07  00
14  SJE  23  7  05  06  12  21  0.91  27  42  28  07  00
[COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  26  4  04  05  17  17  0.65  20  29  32  -06 -13 [/COLOR]

GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG)
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 

- Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
01  CMB  25  43  12  13  8  4  0  3  6  4  -06
02  CDC  24  37  11  13  8  1  2  3  3  7  -09
03  HOU  27  43  13  14  8  4  1  4  3  7  -10
04  LAG  26  41  13  13  5  4  4  5  7  1  -11
05  CHI  26  40  13  13  4  5  4  6  5  2  -12
06  NER  24  34  12  12  6  3  3  3  4  5  -14
07  COL  25  37  13  12  8  3  2  2  4  6  -14
08  DCU  26  36  12  14  6  5  1  2  7  5  -14
09  SEA  26  38  14  12  6  6  2  3  5  4  -16
10  RSL  26  34  13  13  7  5  1  2  2  9  -18
11  TFC  26  34  13  13  7  3  3  2  4  7  -18
12  KCW  25  30  12  13  4  3  5  4  3  6  -19
13  FCD  25  27  12  13  5  4  3  2  2  9  -22
14  SJE  23  21  13  10  5  4  4  0  2  8  -28
15  NYR  26  17  14  12  4  4  6  0  1  11 -37

Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

CDC: NYR, @DCU, KCW, SJE, @CHI, HOU
CHI: TFC, @LAG, @NER, CDC
CMB: LAG, SEA, @NER, @DCE, NER
COL: SJE, @KCW, NER, @FCD, @RSL
DCU: SJE, CDC, CMB, @KCW
FCD: RSL, NER, @SJE, COL, @SEA
HOU: KCW, LAG, @CDC
KCW: COL, @HOU, @CDC, SEA, DCU
LAG: @CMB, CHI, @HOU, SJE
NER: SEA, @FCD, @COL, CMB, CHI, @CMB
NYR: @CDC, @SJE, @RSL, TFC
RSL: @FCD, NYR, @TFC, COL
SEA: @NER, @CMB, @KCW, FCD
SJE: @COL, @DCU, NYR, FCD, @TOR, CDC, LAG
TFC: @CHI, SJE, RSL, @NYR[/B]

If you see any errors, please note them in this thread.