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Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by Nico Limmat, Feb 24, 2014.

  1. jagum

    jagum Member

    Montreal Impact
    Venezuela
    Jun 20, 2007
    Panama City, Panama
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Venezuela
    The best thing that can happen is that USA finishes in fifth place and all the plans of Concacaf $$$$$$$$$$ are ruined... :D
     
  2. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Who in Concacaf doesn't have to fight over one lousy intercontinental playoff spot (possibly against a tough opponent):

    July 2019 ranking
    1. Mexico (1604)
    2. USA (1548)
    3. Costa Rica (1445)
    4. Jamaica (1425)
    ------------------------------
    5. Honduras (1350)
    6. El Salvador (1341)

    The chasing pack: Panama (1331), Canada (1312), Curacao (1309) and Haiti (1288). Others are more than 100 points behind El Salvador.

    In the CNL they can improve their ranking before the all-important June 2020 ranking. The multiplier isn't much better than the one for friendlies. Haiti would need to be almost flawless in the CNL (odds of reaching the Hex are really long). OTOH Mexico, USA, CR and Jamaica are nailed on seeing movement in the rankings is very slow.

    You're in luck if your FIFA ranking gives you better odds of reaching the Hex than when you had to advance from your group. And tough luck... (vice versa). For the teams that can reach (or miss out on) the Hex looking for good value in friendlies can be very alluring (could even try bribing your way into the Hex).
     
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  3. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    I'm still struggling to believe that Concacaf is serious about a qualifying system that robs most of their members of a chance of qualifying for the World Cup by defeating teams within Concacaf. Surely the 29 nations robbed of that chance (maybe the number is higher now? haven't checked Concacafs Full FIFA member roster for a while) wouldn't be in favour of such a system.
     
  4. glennaldo_sf

    glennaldo_sf Member+

    Deportivo Wanka, Semen Padang, Dinamo Bender, Fotballaget Fart
    United States
    Nov 25, 2004
    Doha, Qatar
    Club:
    FL Fart Vang Hedmark
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Is there a sports version of the Onion? ...... please tell me that this is satire....
     
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  5. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Brooklyn, NY
    Not so sure. The way I read it, the 5th and 6th-place teams in the HEX are eliminated straight-away. And the 4th-place team has to play 2 playoffs instead of 1, the first of which will be against the CONCACAF playoff winner (so guaranteed to be a team in really good form).

    I think this actually works against the US because they looked so bad in 2018 qualifying, having the HEX start sooner in this cycle is not a good thing. If I'm the US, I wouldn't want the HEX to start until the second half of 2021 to give me as much time as possible to rebuild the team and its confidence.

    Of course they should still qualify.

    Not sure why CONCAF are going with such a batshit format for 2022. This would make more sense for 2026 qualifying. But it seems they figured out a way to ensure Mexico-US qualifying matches for 2026 qualifying and beyond when CONCACAF gets more spots.
     
  6. PabloSanDiego

    PabloSanDiego Member+

    West Ham United
    United States
    Jan 18, 2014
    San Diego, CA
    Club:
    West Ham United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As you stated, CONCACAF announced the Hex starts 2 months earlier, which isn't that big of a deal for the US. I guess the 2 extra months with a batch of friendlies helps but it's still 14 months away instead of 16.

    I'm wondering though with the WC itself not starting until November of 2022 instead of the usual June, why wouldn't the Hex be delayed along with the tournament, at least by a few months? Why is CONCACAF actually starting it sooner, it makes no sense to me. With 3 teams decided by September 2021, that's a full 14 months before the WC to play warm up friendlies.

    I wonder if a Hex date change could happen? This schedule doesn't make sense, but then CONCACAF often does things that don't make sense. I'm not asking because as a US supporter I want it delayed.

    I dug around a bit and read that most other confederations haven't announced their qualification process yet. Maybe those other ones will slide later to correspond with the later WC.

    I also read that the Inter-continental playoffs are in March 2022. So again, why would the Hex end in September 2021 and then have a 6 months wait to decide if the 4th CCF entry will go?
     
  7. LordofBrewtown

    LordofBrewtown New Member

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    Agreed. Really harsh format. There's a happy medium between this and CONCACAF's stupidity.
     
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  8. LordofBrewtown

    LordofBrewtown New Member

    Wigan Athletic
    United States
    Nov 19, 2018
    Based on current form, I think that Jamaica and Costa Rica are most helped by this - Costa Rica likely makes the hex; but, no guarantee. I'm not at all convinced that Jamaica would. Haiti and Canada are the most screwed, as I think both countries would have had good chances/been favored to make the hex based on recent trends.

    The way the CNL stacks up, Jamaica and El Salvador are really helped also. Extra games being in League B, and could easily go without any losses or draws, so they'll be gaining more points before the final June ranking.

    Panama should schedule as many friendlies against minnows to scrape up points as possible.
     
  9. PabloSanDiego

    PabloSanDiego Member+

    West Ham United
    United States
    Jan 18, 2014
    San Diego, CA
    Club:
    West Ham United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    this is just one factor that makes using FIFA rankings so flawed. Instead of deciding it out on the pitch in an understandable format (get enough points in actual matches and qualify), teams can get creative and game the ranking system formula by doing things like "schedule as many friendlies against minnows to scrape up points".
     
  10. korsarz222

    korsarz222 New Member

    May 24, 2010
    What a stupid format! Is not fair! $$$$$$$
     
  11. athletics68

    athletics68 Member+

    Dec 12, 2006
    San Diego & San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Stupid format for a stupid World Cup... seems legit to me.
     
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  12. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Concafaf have 3 direct World Cup Spots and 35 nations capable of entering the tournament. At the stroke of a pen 29 of those 35 will not have the opportunity to compete for one of the direct spots. Why would they do this? I get the feeling that in the future they will be happy to have 2 Gold Cups and two nations leagues running in each cycle and use those to determine World Cup spots.
     
  13. thewitness

    thewitness Member

    Melbourne Victory, Derby County
    Australia
    Jul 10, 2013
    Club:
    Derby County FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    AFC Round 2 draw results
    Group A: China PR, Syria, Philippines, Maldives, Guam

    Group B: Australia, Jordan, Chinese Taipei, Kuwait, Nepal

    Group C: IR Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Cambodia

    Group D: Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Palestine, Yemen, Singapore

    Group E: Bangladesh, Oman, India, Afghanistan, Qatar

    Group F: Japan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Mongolia

    Group G: UAE, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia

    Group H: Korea Republic, Lebanon, Korea DPR, Turkmenistan, Sri Lanka
     
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  14. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    http://www.football-rankings.info/2019/07/concacaf-nations-league-2020.html

    These projections are pretty much in line with my expectations below. Mexico, USA, CR and Jamaica are indeed nailed on for the Hex. Honduras and El Salvador not that far off. Even though Haiti and Curacao are both longshots to make the Hex it's a small surprise Haiti isn't bottom. And as expected the teams that are more than 100 points behind El Salvador don't have a prayer to reach the Hex.

     
  15. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    #3440 JLSA, Jul 21, 2019 at 6:21 PM
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2019 at 6:30 PM
    Thinking about it - the more I start to say (from the point of view of teams just outside the Hex zone) Why Not?.

    Before you were competing for 3.5 spots against USA, Mexico, Costa Rica (who are all clearly a level ahead of you), plus Jamaica and (say) Honduras.

    Now you are competing for 0.5 spots - with just a one off play-off at the end against a team that doesn't quite succeed in the Hex.

    Three fewer spots with the best of your rivals going out the top before you need to play them - seems like the calculus could have swung in your favour. Particularly when you consider teams like Canada can't even get into the Hex because they get at least one of the big three plus another team in the semi groups - they now avoid all the teams that keep stopping them making the top six, until you go into the one-off lottery play-off (well, two one-off lottery play-offs).

    J
     
  16. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So Canada should be happy that they'll be playing WCQ with Montserrat and TCI instead of Mexico and T&T?
     

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