I'd say that since currently, expectations for the 2022 WC aren't very high at all, to have this move to 48 teams, will definitively prove the sooner than the later, that it is a horrible setup (3 team groups). In other words to "kill all pigeons with the same shot" or have all bad "experiments" in only one tournament instead of having it in many. After which, FIFA will get their senses back, and decide to get back to the original 4 team groups or maybe the 32 team WC for 2026, the same as for every WC that comes after it, as well........
One crazy thought i had is this.... [put on tin foil hat] .... since Turkey is helping out Qatar with supplies and Turkey is part of UEFA what if they somehow put 16 - 24 teams in Turkey? It will be a cross continental host with UEFA and AFC. This will open up 2026 to either United bid or Morocco and then 2030 to Arg/Uru/Para. By allowing Turkey to host a few games they can say UEFA had part in 2022 and it will only be a 8 year absence compared to 12.... I dont know much about middle eastern politics so not sure if Qatar would allow Saudi, UAE or Bahrain to share in any of the WC plans even if they ended the blockade. From what I have read, this is a play by the Saudis with almost no real impact up to now.
Only problem is that for the 2026 bids, Morocco wasn't allowed to present a joint bid with Spain and Portugal (whom are only separated by a few miles of water between each other), due to the fact that they belong to diferent Confeds. At present times, given the political conditions that surrounds Qatar, as "wild" as it may seem, it is much more likely that they get to share hosting rights with Iran, than any other of their arab neighbours.
I don't think they will revert back to 32. They would probably play with the format a bit and Group numbers but not revert back. Too much Money to be made by Television and Sponsors and possible Markets that can sneak in like China.
this is all nuts, which is why its so crazy to even hear about the expansion in the first place! Id rather go to Iran than Qatar... but the passport would be very suspicious... Russia then Qatar and Iran...
Sheer numbers don't make a tournament more atractive to market. Besides you need lots of interest regarding consumers. And a weak China team will not boost their market for FIFA. In fact, when they qualified to the WC in 2002, which was a 32 team WC, they got to be the "punching bag" for everyone whom confronted them there, and at the end their participation had almost zero impact in market for FIFA. What FIFA needs to improve market there, is a strong China team, with a good perormance at the WC, and this will never happen if they make it easier on them to reach the WC.
Sheer numbers make it possible for Television Networks to charge sponsors more money because there's more games for their products and services to be seen on the biggest stage in the world. That in turns allows FIFA to charge more money for the Television Rights. Chinese Television Networks will probably pay more money if they get into the World Cup more often (even if they are punching bags) so the 2002 reference is irrelevant.
As I am not a US citizen (not affected by any of their national bias towards other countries), I wouldn't have any problem with that. And to be honest, I would love it from happening, as both seem to me, to be interesting cultures. Besides, Iran is one of the top footballing countries in Asia (to me, at about the same level as for the USA), also a big country, with plenty of big interesting cities, and infrastructure already in place to host a tournament of this kind. In many aspects a WC there would makes lots more sense than many of the countries that have already hosted in the past, or will host a WC in the future.
Also, (Something no one is talking about) with the way the 48 team set up is structured the Playoff in 2021 set for November could also be sold separately by FIFA to Networks which will bring in some more money. How much money remains to be seen though. Europe probably won't pony up the Cash to see El Salvador - Burkina Faso and Paraguay-China but the USA market and Asian markets probably will.
The 2002 reference is completely relevant, as it proves that triumphs is what makes the money wheel rolling. Defeats don't atract anyone, and least of all to network consumers. Besides, on reference to China, it still not the best moment for them to open up completely to the world, so their media is still going to be subject to plenty of government restrictions, as they still are at present times.
The Chinese Federation in recent years has put a priority on their Football and advancing the sport. Chinese Television Networks and Companies have invested more of their money in Football programming from around the world. The world is a very different place than it was in 2002.
Not only in recent years, as they've been on to it since a very long time, but without the desired results yet. And their television network is still highly restrictive, as they only show what their government allows them to show. Still hasn't changed much.
I read recent articles that conflict with what you are saying about it being for a very long time. It has only been within the last 3 years or so (at least with the focus and resources they are putting into the sport currently). Even with restrictions they ponied up money for the Premiere League. They will probably invest more in World Cups. Especially if they qualify for them at a higher percentage.
The Chinese market also is currently in the top 10 in World Cup ticket sales. I also imagine that demand would increase if they have a better chance at making it to the World Cup.
At youth level tournaments they've been working since long (more seriously during the late 80's early 90's, hiring important coaches from elsewhere to help them develop their teams), and have also qualified to diferent tournaments (we even played against them in the under-17 WC of 1993, hosted by Japan, where we had a 2 goal each, draw vs. them, for instance).
The point is there is much more money to be made in a 48 team setup. I don't see them moving it back to 32. Back to Qatar...
When that happens, almost the whole world footballing fans will turn their heads, to club competitions instead (not for nothing, that Infantino offered Uefa a huge amount of money, to be payed by an undisclosed party, for their rights on their competitions) . Something that is already somehow happening, despite not having even played the first 48 team WC. With the increase in numbers of participating teams at the WC, FIFA is actually "killing" the golden hen that the WC currently represents. For what most of their high officials care, they just want to bag in the most cash they can get, the sooner the better, as after, there will not be much money for the grabs, and they can retire safely back home with pockets full. For whom comes after, or for the future health of what the WC represents, they don't give a crap about them.....
They might have 3 teams in the Champions League final. They can play three halves, total goals. Make sure the three teams are from different countries, with one reserved for the team with the biggest media profile. It'll increase revenue.
It's almost as if FIFA are conducting an experiment to see many dumb ideas the crowd will put up with. I can honestly say that FIFA expanding the World Cup made me 10 times angrier than the USA not qualifying for Russia.
At this point we just have to get through the Qatar anomaly. Expanding the 2022 World Cup should be an absolute non-starter.
turns out Qatar are going to Copa America 2019.... will be a big test for the national team... looking forward to seeing it...
Maybe You're right Current copyrights of major professional football tournaments in China Chinese Super League, 11 billion RMB for ten years 2016-2025, about 176 million USD per year (Suning / CSM) English Premier League，721 million USD for three years （19/20-21/22），240 m USD per year （Suning / PP Sports） Spain La Liga， 500 million EUR for five years （17/18 - 21/22）, about 123 million USD per year （DDMC） German Bundesliga 250 million USD for five years (18/19 - 22/23)， 50 million USD per year （Suning / PP Sports） EUFA club Competitions， 400 million USD for three year （18/19 - 20/21）, 133 million USD per year （DDMC） AFC Competitions， 100 million USD for four years （2017-2020），25 million USD per year （Suning / CSM）
Personally, I'd have no problem as long as the Iranian government agrees to end the ban on women in football stadia. Is Santiago Soria still around? I'd imagine he'd be the Qatari go-to interview for the Latin American press