Hi everyone, According to Fernando Palomo of ESPN, CONCACAF has already circulated a qualifying format for approval among its members before sending it to FIFA for final approval: Round 1 - Home-and-away playoffs with the teams ranked 22 through 35 (March 2015) Round 2 - Home-and-away playoffs with the teams ranked 9 through 21, plus the 14 winners from Round 1 (June 2015) Round 3 - Home-and-away playoffs with the teams ranked 7 and 8, plus the 10 winners from Round 2 (September 2015) Round 4 - Three groups of four, Top 6 ranked teams in CONCACAF plus 6 winners from Round 3 (November 2015, March and September 2016) Round 5 - Hexagonal (November 2016 through October 2017) First, a couple of questions: what happens if the fifth-place finisher in the Caribbean Cup ends up having to play in Round 1? AFAIK, the UNCAF/CFU playoff for the last spot in the Gold Cup is scheduled for March 2015 as well. And depending on which monthly ranking they use, what happens if Jamaica get dragged into Round 2, since they're playing in the Copa América that month? Having said that, my view of this format has grown more positive since I first saw it. While the first group stage from the 2014 WCQ guaranteed more games for the smaller teams in CONCACAF, it is true that said teams could run themselves out of contention early, ending up with dead rubber matches (e.g. all of Matchday 6, with every group having been decided beforehand). In addition, having three such playoff rounds with the top six absent will allow for more evenly-matched series and competitive games, rather than seeing Chicharito, Oribe and Joel Campbell try to put up Borgetti numbers on the likes of Belize and St. Kitts. Finally, a visualization of how this could play out - using the September FIFA rankings (skewed by the best Caribbean teams having yet to join the Caribbean Cup qualifiers), assuming a straight-up best v. worst, second-best v. second worst, etc. draw and allowing for upsets of overrated teams (e.g. Aruba). Round 1 Guyana vs. Anguilla Puerto Rico vs. British Virgin Islands Barbados vs. Cayman Islands Belize vs. Bahamas Dominica vs. US Virgin Islands Montserrat vs. Turks and Caicos Islands Bermuda vs. Nicaragua I'd see all the top seeds winning except Bermuda, who strangely opted out of the Caribbean Cup and could get caught cold against a better-organized Nicaragua side. Round 2 Trinidad and Tobago vs. Nicaragua Jamaica vs. Montserrat St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Dominica Dominican Republic vs. Belize St. Kitts and Nevis vs. Barbados Haiti vs. Puerto Rico Canada vs. Guyana Cuba vs. Curação St. Lucia vs. Suriname Aruba vs. Grenada IMO these games appear pretty balanced, i.e. not too many blowouts on offer. Having said that, a tie such as Haiti-Puerto Rico would be rough...and poor DeRo (Dwayne de Rosario, for those of you who don't follow MLS) if Canada-Guyana were to happen. Round 3 El Salvador vs. Belize Antigua and Barbuda vs. Grenada Trinidad and Tobago vs. Suriname Jamaica vs. Cuba St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Canada St. Kitts and Nevis vs. Haiti Lucky Canada...too bad for them that the ranking will eventually correct itself, and they'll have to fight for their lives in this round. Round 4 Group A Costa Rica Honduras Antigua and Barbuda Haiti Group B Mexico Guatemala Jamaica Trinidad and Tobago Group C USA Panama Canada El Salvador Looks tailor-made for a repeat of the last Hex, although I have no idea who would finish second in Group B.
I like this! But I did have an argument/doubt. According to the article (linked below) they are planning on using the August rankings for the upcoming settings of the WCQ. Would you know why? http://m.edhdeportes.com/articulo/c...aria-salvador-para-proxima-eliminatoria-17434
For Round 2 you mean the 7 winners from Round 1, not 14 winners. I don't like how long the group stages will take. Round 4 can't be played in June 2016 during the special Copa America, and with that format it would take part or all of 11 months compared to 5 months for the Semifinals in 2012. The Hexagonal would take part or all of 12 months compared to 9 months in 2013. If the August 2014 FIFA Rankings are used, Trinidad and Tobago would start in the Semifinals which they didn't reach last time.
@IASocFan Can this topic be stickied? Assuming this format will be used, I already decied what percent different components will be worth in my prediction contest, but I'm not going to start a topic for that yet. A Wikipedia page about CONCACAF qualifying for World Cup 2018 was already created and deleted because it was created with insufficient information because the qualifying format wasn't announced.
Good catch. My guess is that the semifinal round and the Hex starting early have to do with 1) the 2016 Copa América and 2) avoiding the situation we had in June of last year, with three Hex matchdays taking place in the same month. I almost forgot: if CONCACAF's set on using the August rankings (being selfish, that would be preferable for Haiti, although Guatemala would be justifiably upset), then it could play out something like this - again, a simple highest v. lowest ranked, 2nd highest v. 2nd lowest, etc. Round 1 St. Kitts and Nevis vs. Anguilla Belize vs. British Virgin Islands Montserrat vs. Cayman Islands Dominica vs. Bahamas Barbados vs. US Virgin Islands Bermuda vs. Curação Nicaragua vs. Turks and Caicos Islands Round 2 Canada vs. Cayman Islands Cuba vs. Curação Aruba vs. Nicaragua Dominican Republic vs. Barbados El Salvador vs. Dominica Suriname vs. Belize Guatemala vs. St. Kitts and Nevis St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Puerto Rico St. Lucia vs. Guyana Grenada vs. Antigua and Barbuda Round 3 Jamaica vs. Nicaragua Haiti vs. Puerto Rico Canada vs. Guyana Cuba vs. Antigua and Barbuda Dominican Republic vs. Guatemala El Salvador vs. Suriname Round 4 Group A Mexico Honduras Haiti Canada Group B USA Panama Jamaica El Salvador Group C Costa Rica Trinidad and Tobago Guatemala Cuba The big takeaway from this is that if Aruba (predictably) crash out in Round 2, El Salvador would move into Pot 1 for the Round 3 draw, leaving Guatemala as the only significant threat from Pot 2.
The qualifying format for World Cup 2014 was posted on March 17, 2011, and this cycle by about then (March 17, 2015) the qualifiers will be starting. Paul Calixte is assuming Round 1, Round 2, and Round 3 will have separate draws. It could be like the UEFA Champions League Qualifying Round 3 where a draw is done earlier assuming the top pot teams win, and if a bottom pot team wins there could be a matchup of two teams that would have been in the same pot if there were separate draws. Given that the official draw for all confederations is in between Round 2 and Round 3, I would expect Round 2 and Round 3 to have separate draws with the latter also stating what Semifinal groups each winner would go into. I wouldn't be surprised if Round 1 and Round 2 were done in the same draw.
We'll find out on July 25, 2015. IIRC that's exactly how the draws for CONCACAF playoff rounds were done before the 2014 WC cycle, so it could happen again.
In the 2014 cycle Round 1 (five two leg series) was played before the qualifying draw in July 2011. What was drawn together was Round 2 (with six groups) and Round 3 (the Semifinals).
One benefit of using the August ranking is that it exempts Jamaica from the second round, allowing CONCACAF to hold it during the 2015 Copa América without a problem.
I really like it so long as the most recent rankings are used rather than August 2014. I'm glad the point was raised about the dead rubber from the last editions round 2. I think there was the worthy goal of trying to get more small countries an opportunity to host 3 group stage matches, but that kind of gets cancelled out when they are virtually out of it by match day 3 or 4. For Jamaica, Copa 2015 should be last priority behind possible GC, WCQ and possible Copa 2016, they'll send any U-23s they can muster up, because no matter who they send, it would be a miracle if they mustered a single point down there. As for the CFU/UNCAF playoff, I believe the only teams that still face that possibility of having to play in the playoff and a Round 1 match would be Barbados and Curacao based on the August rankings. If you used the September rankings, that would leave only Barbados below 22. If they ended up using a more timely ranking, like Nov. 2014 rankings, any team that is able to finish 5th in the Caribbean Cup will have bumped themselves above 22nd in the CONCACAF rankings. I think that's ultimately what probably happens. The schedulers kind of caught a break that Honduras is the Central American team in that playoff rather than Belize or Nicaragua.
I would hope they would use the December 2014 rankings because those rankings will include every major qualifier while still factoring in 2014 at 100%. The January 2015 rankings will have virtually everyone at 0 for 2015, and those that are not at 0 will have inflated numbers.
Although the FIFA Rankings list the point breakdowns by year, it's really a rolling 12 month period, so the January 2015 rankings will have February 2014 through January 2015 at 100%. If almost everybody was at 0 for 2015 at that time then most countries would have their amount of points go significantly down. In December 2013 the Top 20 countries in the FIFA Rankings had a combined 21,836 points. In January 2014 the Top 20 countries in the FIFA Rankings had a combined 21,821 points.
Concacaf can beat either Asia or Oceania; and even give Conmebol a dogfight and possibly eliminate them as well.
Anybody know when it will be announced what confederation CONCACAF faces in the interconfederation playoff?
Watching the replay of Japan vs Honduras on centroamericatv that Japan 4th goal was a pretty sweet play.
Details on qualification here http://www.sportsnet.ca/soccer/canada-concacaf-gold-cup-2018-fifa-world-cup-russia/
Canadaa, Aruba and the Dominican Republic are big winners by using the August rankings. Guatemala, El Salvador and A&B get the short end of the stick
The August rankings are being used because Jamaica have agreed to be in the Copa America and CONCACAF's director of competitions is the former general secretary of the JFF. Their August ranking was enough to see them receive a bye past the second round that takes place during the beginning of the Copa America. The newer (September/October) rankings weren't enough to get them a third round seed. The proposals were made before the Caribbean Cup took place so it wasn't known for certain whether Jamaica would be able to get back up to the third round seeds - they were.
Yes, this deserves a sticky. So here's what this format would look like Round 1 (March 2015) - This is when the playoff matches will presumably be for Honduras and French Guiana, but obviously Honduras is not at this stage and FG is non-FIFA, so that worked out nicely Pot 1: Nicaragua, Bermuda, Barbados, Dominica, Montserrat, Belize, St. Kitts and Nevis Pot 2: Anguilla, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Bahamas, US Virgin Islands, Curacao, Turks and Caicos Islands ------------------------------------- Round 2 (June 2015) - Before the GC - teams 9-21 join plus the 7 winners to create 10 two-legged ties Pot 1: Grenada, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Guatemala, Suriname, El Salvador, Dominican Republic, Aruba, Cuba, Canada Pot 2: 7 winners from Round 1 plus Puerto Rico, Guyana, Antigua and Barbuda --------------------------------- Round 3 (Fall 2015), Jamaica and Haiti join the 10 group winners for six matches. For ease of following, I will simply advance all the Pot 1 teams from Round 2. Obviously anyone from Pot 2 in Round 2 will be Pot 2 here as well. Pot 1: Jamaica, Haiti, Canada, Cuba, Aruba, Dominican Republic Pot 2: El Salvador, Suriname, Guatemala, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Grenada ------------------- Round 4 (Fall 2016, I assume), again I will advance all the Pot 1 teams from Round 3, although it seems very likely that there will be some pot 2 winners: Pot 1: Costa Rica United States Mexico Pot 2: Honduras Panama Trinidad and Tobago Pot 3: Jamaica Haiti Canada Pot 4: Cuba Aruba Dominican Republic Of course, all of Pot 1 + Jamaica will be coming off Copa 2016. Predicting which other two teams end up in that tournament is a fools errand (Aruba and DR did not qualify for the GC), but it might be very beneficial for those teams to experience elite opposition right before this round. Now remember how I mentioned I was just going all chalk with this projection and we're not likely to get this because there's a couple teams that appear much stronger than their August ranking suggests. The BIG wild card right now, IMO, is Guatemala, and to a lesser extent El Salvador. We'll know by June if they are a quality teams that can potentially crash the party, depending on how they show in the GC and if they qualify for Copa 2016. But there is a very distinct possibility that these two teams end up in Pot 4 and someone could get stuck with a pretty nightmarish group of Honduras, Jamaica, and Guatemala. That would be 3 really brutal road games for the favorite.