We are now 16 months from the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup in France. Final rosters are 23 players, with 7 alternates making up a preliminary squad of 30 players. Here's a thread to discuss the evolution of the roster as we get closer to France. My picks as of now, with ages during World Cup (June 7-July 7, 2019) GK: Naeher (31), Harris (33), Franch (24) D: Sauerbrunn (34), Dahlkemper (25), Davidson (20), Menges (26), O'Hara (30), Sonnett (25), Short (28), Gibbons (24) M: Ertz (27), S. Mewis (26), Horan (25), Sullivan (23), Lavelle (24), Brian (26)/Lloyd (36) F: Morgan (29), Press (30), Pugh (21), Hatch (24)/Williams (25), Dunn (27)/Ohai (27), Heath (31)/Rapinoe (33) Others to round out the preliminary roster, plus a few extras: Campbell (24), A. Smith (25), T. Smith (25), Colaprico (26), McCaskill (22), Huerta (26), Groom (26) Long-shot veterans: Krieger (34): it's pretty clear Ellis has moved on, as she did with Engen Long (31): impactful NWSL player, subpar with WNT and younger players can fill the same role better Rodriguez (32): maligned by fans circa 2011, but great in NWSL whenever she plays; getting older and ACL recovery is a question mark Leroux (29): looks slower than pre-pregnancy; her tenacity and work rate are still valuable Tough calls Brian vs. Lloyd: when healthy, Brian can spray the ball around with the best of them, and she's calm under pressure. Plus she will have a season playing in France with Lyon. Contrast this with Lloyd, who is fiery, streaky, and as we know is a goal-scoring threat. But she will be 36, and her presence tends to change how the team plays. Sonnett vs. T. Smith/Huerta: Ellis seem to like Smith right now for her attacking instincts, but she's not a great passer and I'm worried about her defending. Same worry goes for Huerta, who is the best crosser of these three. In Sonnett you get a lock-down defender with good pace, who can play central or wide. Including four center backs: Sauerbrunn for her leadership and still-excellent ability to snuff out attacks with her brain, Menges I want on the team for her speed and reliability, Davidson is a great distributor and future anchor of the backline, and Dahlkemper seems to be a lock at this point. Hatch vs. Williams: only one cap for Hatch so far, but she has a better first touch than Williams. Both can finish when given the opportunity, though Williams has been wasteful at international level. Both are better used central. Williams' pace is unmatched and a great weapon, but she isn't a good crosser and makes poor decisions out wide. Dunn vs. Ohai: old college and U-20 teammates. Ellis may feel pressure to include Dunn after omitting her in 2015. Dunn also has a decent goal tally, and has shown ability to score from distance or poaching in the box. That said, she didn't impress me in 2017. Needs to regain form. Ohai looked poised to make a big impact after a lights-out 2016 club season and scoring the fastest debut goal in USWNT history. Then the dreaded ACL happened. 2017 is a big year for her -- can she get her explosiveness back? Heath vs. Rapinoe: two wily, unconventional vets who are full of tricks. A contrast of years. In 2016, Tobin was playing the best soccer of her life -- still with trademark flair but also more efficient/purposeful. Rapinoe was out with ACL and rushing her back for the Olympics didn't help. In 2017, Rapinoe was NWSL Best 11 and reclaimed a USWNT starting role, while Heath was plagued by injuries. When "on" both these players add needed creativity. But each, especially Pinoe, can have very "off" games where nothing works. Depth chart (again, my opinion): G: Naeher, Franch, Harris, Campbell, A. Smith RB: O'Hara, Sonnett, T. Smith, Huerta CB: Sauerbrunn, Menges, Dahlkemper, Davidson LM: Short, Gibbons DM: Ertz, Sullivan, Colaprico CM: Mewis, Brian/Lloyd AM: Horan, Lavelle, McCaskill CF: Morgan, Press, Williams/Hatch OF: Pugh, Heath/Rapinoe, Dunn/Ohai, Groom
I'll take Campbell/Smith over Harris. With Ellis as HC, I can't see Menges, Short, Colaprico, Gibbons, Hatch, Groom, or Ohai making the roster. I gotta think that one or more of the following will be out with injury (based on history): Heath, Rapinoe, Lloyd, Lavelle, Brian.
I can't see all of them making the roster, but I can definitely see some. Short, in particular, seems like a very likely one to make the roster. She played in all but one match in 2017.
Franch --- her problem is if she can ever play for NT it is very hard for her to move up the depth chart and only Naeher is playing. Sonnett --- All Ellis wants from her outside backs is offense. If she wanted a good defender Krieger would still be getting calls Menges --- Ellis doesn't like her at all and can't figure why. Despite her deficiencies she is the fast CB Ellis is always crying about Midfield --- I think she takes 5 true midfielders and Lloyd is one of them Defenders --- I think she only takes 7 Attacker --- she now has 8 spots for attacker by shorting the other two G: Naeher, Harris, Campbell RB: T. Smith, Huerta CB: Sauerbrunn, Dahlkemper, Davidson LM: Short, O'Hara DM: Ertz CM: Mewis, Horan, Lloyd, Sullivan CF: Morgan, Press, Williams OF: Pugh, Heath, Rapinoe, Dunn, Lavelle If she wants Brian then it happens at the expense of right back so take out Huerta. O'Hara plays both side and Dunn is cover
I could easily see that being the list Ellis chooses. Biggest question mark might be Huerta. I could see Ellis taking Brian or Smith or some as of yet unknown player instead. Otherwise, it'd take a player exploding onto the scene to change it I think.
The Franch situation kind of shows just how the NT works. Franch was the best GK in the NWSL last year yet it doesn't get anything but a look on the NT. So lets compare Franch and Ertz. Twice now Ertz has risen from obscurity to a starter on the NT. First at Algarve in 2015 and again against Brazil in 2017. She did it because field players get the chances that GK rarely get on the NT...the chance to make a statement in an NT match. Nothing snaps Ellis out of her perpetual trance like a big performance in a match.
I concur, but the big question mark is, who will make the team who is 22 or 23 and have an impact? That is a crucial question. Ertz and Brian were 23 and 22j in '15; take them off the squad and the USA does not win the '15 World Cup (and might not get out of the first round).
Ertz and Brian were pretty likely roster players back then, if I recall correctly. I'm not sure I see anyone similar now unless McCaskill would fit the profile -- I think she likely will be on the roster. Who are others that might fit the profile?
At this point in the last cycle, Brian was solidly in the mix. Ertz was not. She had some call-ups and a few caps, but was not a regular. (She didn't get named to the 2014 Algarve roster, nor some of the following friendlies.) I would say both Sullivan and McCaskill fit the profile, as does someone like Hatch.
Forgetting about injuries, my current WC roster would be (not my preference but who I think Ellis would pick) GK: Naeher, Harris, Campbell CB: Sauerbrunn, Dahlkemper, Davidson OB: O'Hara, Short, _______ DM: Ertz, Sullivan AM: Horan, Mewis, Lloyd, McCaskell F: Morgan, Press, Dunn, Pugh, Rapinoe, Heath, Lavelle, Williams That leaves one spot at OB that I don't have a clue about. Maybe Taylor, Sonnett, Huerta. If Dunn goes back there then the 23rd spot could be help on any of the three lines
If we're still in a 4-3-3 by the time we're going to France (assuming we qualify), then Ellis is likely going with 3 keepers (because that's mandatory), 4 CB, 4 OB, 6 mids, and 6 forwards. That way there's cover at each position in case the I-word decides to hit after the tournament begins.
Lloyd should be dropped. Much respect for her but she's old and has lost her legs. It's the problem of not having the stomach to nudge out a longtime stalwart. It's Wambach redux.
Well first Ellis hasn't shown in her four years that she believes that positions r actually relevant else she would play people in their actual positions. Second, most of her darlings r in the F troop.
Right now: G: Naeher, Franch, Campbell D: Sauerbrunn, Dahlkemper, Davidson, Sonnett, O'Hara, Dunn, Short M: Ertz, Mewis, Horan, Sullivan, Brian, Lloyd F: Morgan, Pugh, Rapinoe, Press, Lavelle, McCaskill, Williams/Hatch Notes Franch has improved her weaknesses, deserves to be in the team; Naeher has been shaky lately but I still like her more than Harris Two more "stay-at-home" outside backs, two attack-minded ones All the midfielders are central players, in line with Ellis' current formation Sam Mewis' knee injury is up-in-the-air. On Jen Cooper's podcast, the local NC reporter said they are trying physical therapy, but if that doesn't work, the only option is surgery with a 1-year recovery time. It's not a ligament injury but rather some problem with the patella (?) If Lavelle makes it back, it's probably as an outside forward in Ellis' 4-3-3. Heath just hasn't played enough games to warrent it at this time. Can't see both Williams and Hatch going; whoever shows better NWSL form - and the ability to finish internationally - gets the nod Ellis will relent and recall Press for her finishing abilities Missing out: Harris, Krieger, Klingenberg, Huerta, T. Smith, Hinkle, Long, Heath, Ohai, either Hatch or Williams
You should be banned for this comment. I know Semblance will agree. If Mewis requires surgery and is out for a year then who takes her place? My guess is Huerta.
I think the expectation is that Tobin will be back pretty soon. If she is, then I think she'll get a true shot at making the roster.
I think if Ellis has a roster in her mind, Heath and Lavelle r on it despite losing the last year. That was certainly the case with Morgan.
We're down to 29, for 23 spots. Jill has already shown her cards. No one else has a very good shot, and would need a minor miracle at this point. Attackers (Pick 5-6, of these 7) Morgan, Pugh, Rapinoe, Press, Williams, McCaskill, Hatch Midfielders/Central (Pick 4 of these 6) Ertz, Mewis, Horan, Brian, Sullivan, Long Defenders (Pick 6-7, of these 7) O'Hara, Sonnett, Smith, Short, Sauerbrunn, Davidson, Dahlkemper Wildcard (Pick 3-4 of these 5) Dunn, Lloyd, Heath, Lavelle, Huerta Goalkeepers (Pick 3 of these 4) Naeher, Harris, Campbell, Franch Jill has finally narrowed it down to less than 30. It would take a lot of injuries to enable others to jump on to the 23 player roster. That is certainly possible at this point, but is still a minor miracle. Players tend to become more healthy in a World Cup year.
[ Attackers (Pick 5-6, of these 7) Morgan, Pugh, Rapinoe, Press, Williams, McCaskill, Hatch Midfielders/Central (Pick 4 of these 6) Ertz, Mewis, Horan, Brian, Sullivan, Long (these are all going, you need 8 midfielders) Defenders (Pick 6-7, of these 7) O'Hara, Sonnett, Smith, Short, Sauerbrunn, Davidson, Dahlkemper Wildcard (Pick 3-4 of these 5) Dunn, Lloyd, Heath, Lavelle, Huerta Goalkeepers (Pick 3 of these 4) Naeher, Harris, Campbell, Franch Press will probably make it as someone will be hurt.[/u][/b]
I'm not convinced McCaskill will stay long with the national team. She's skilled and a good player, to be sure, but I don't think she's ever really been a midfielder. She was a forward in college. She played high quite a bit to draw defenders, but that's not playing midfield. Still, that might be her best chance for sticking as I think there might always be better players on the NT at forward. She might prove me wrong. I've seen Lloyd get annoyed with her twice in their last two games--first in the first Sky Blue game and then in the first Mexico friendly when Lloyd was streaking down the wing all alone and McCaskill badly muffed the pass. Maybe it's a vet-rookie thing or just in-game frustration that everybody shows.
agreed. mewis and ertz are the best pair in the middle, and they seem to be irreplaceable defending and attacking (particularly ertz) balls in the air - especially on set pieces. ... and defending set pieces may turn out to be the achilles heel of this team without those two.