Probability of a home playoff game

Discussion in 'Toronto FC' started by whitbytfcfan, Sep 23, 2019.

  1. whitbytfcfan

    whitbytfcfan Member

    Apr 9, 2016
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Mavinga has likely just cost MLSE a lot of money because that lost two points makes that home playoff game scenario so much more difficult.

    DC United has 48 points with games remaining away @NY Red Bulls and home to Cincinnati.
    NY Red Bulls have 47 points with games remaining at home vs DC United and away @ Montreal.

    Making the assumption that TFC beats Chicago and Columbus to finish with 52 points seeing as there is really no way to get that home playoff date without winning both games:
    • If DC United win against New York, safe to assume they will beat Cincinnati and reach 54 points so TFC will not get that home playoff game.
    • If New York wins against DC United, they will have 50 points and TFC will need the Montreal Impact to get at least a draw against the Red Bulls to get the home playoff game. That awful scenario where we have to cheer for the Impact.
    • If DC United gets a draw against New York and defeats Cincinnati, we would be tied in points and both have 14 wins so it will come down to goal difference which is currently tied. This is the most interesting scenario as it now matters not only whether we win both games but how many goals we score in the process.
     
  2. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    There are a number of other points they dropped through the year so it's a bit harsh to pin it on Mavinga, as stupid as that play was. On the other hand, I do hope we manage to upgrade our defense for next season.
     
  3. whitbytfcfan

    whitbytfcfan Member

    Apr 9, 2016
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Valid point. Human nature I guess to overemphasize the most recent game but yes, there are many other games where we managed to turn wins into a draw and draws into a loss.
     

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