Preseason continental club rankings based on betting markets

1. Barcelona: Preseason favorites to win the Champions league at every book and solid La Liga favorites as well
2. Bayern Munich: In a virtual tie for 2nd/3rd, but are 2nd favorites for CL at more books than they're 3rd favorites
3. Real Madrid: Best odds available for them to repeat with the trophy are 5:1 just like Bayern
4. Manchester City: Rank anywhere from 4th to 6th favorites to win CL with the fact that they have to face a playoff round priced in and would be drawn from Pot 2 upon winning it.
5. Atletico Madrid: 4th favorites at the sharpest book, but can be found as high as 16:1
6. Juventus: Sharp books have them as high as 5th
7. Paris Saint Germain: Best odds available are slightly better than Juve, but are less popular at sharp books
8. Manchester United: Not far behind Manchester City as Premier League second favorites in Mourinho's 1st season
9. Arsenal: Barely get the nod for 9th as they're still statistically one of the CL favorites despite their poor historical performance
10. Borussia Dortmund: Best odds available to win the CL are 30:1 just like Arsenal
11. Chelsea: Nearly match Arsenal for odds of winning the Premier League although lack of European competition does make that goal easier
12. Roma: Outright odds for the CL aren't great as they'll face a tough playoff round matchup just to get in, but they're well ahead of Napoli in Serie A
13. Tottenham Hotspur: Tied for 10th favorites to win CL despite potential tough draw from Pot 3.
14. Liverpool: Just a smidgen behind Spurs in Premier League, expected to finish with 1 less point
15. Napoli: Same odds of winning CL as Spurs although O/U is only 66.5 points in Serie A
16. Sevilla: Last of the real contenders to win the CL at 66:1
17. Bayer Leverkeusen: Decent odds to win CL and not far behind Dortmund in the Bundesliga
18. Villareal: Worse CL odds than Sevilla, but in a dead heat for Liga position
19. Inter Milan: Second favorites to win the Europa League of teams already in the draw, and nearly at same points expectation as Napoli
20. Valencia: Actually the favorites to grab the last CL spot in Spain this year although that may be largely due to their lack of European obligations
21. Leicester City: Slightly better CL odds than Villareal although that could be down to their position in Pot 1 and bettors remembering last year's miracle
22. Benfica: Worse CL odds than the contenders above them despite starting in Pot 1
23. Athletic Bilbao: 1 point better Liga expectation than Villareal/Sevilla with lighter European schedule
24. AC Milan: 5th favorites in Serie A, not far behind Inter
25. Fiorentina: Tied for 3rd favorites in the Europa League with an over/under of 59.5 points in Serie A

 

It's definitely never happened in the Premier League era. Would have to be way back in the days of the old first division.

 

This is looking forward to the upcoming season. United didn't have Van Gaal, Zlatan, Mikhy, or Pogba when they finished 5th in the EPL. It's a different team this year. Also, here are the best available odds for winning the Premier League this season:

Manchester City: 5/2
Manchester United: 7/2
Arsenal: 6/1
Tottenham Hotspur: 9/1
Liverpool: 9/1
Leicester City: 30/1

United's clearly pretty close to City as a solid second favorite in the Premier League this year. Think you have to rate them ahead of Arsenal who are tied as 8th favorites to win the Champions League.

 

Thought it would be fun to bump this thread and do some more subjective club rankings to make a Top 15 now that the season's a month and a half old.

1. Bayern Munich (preseason #2): Bayern has been the most consistent team over the course of the season, starting off with 8 straight wins and 7 clean sheets before dropping a tough away match to Atletico and drawing with Koln.

2. Real Madrid (preseason #3): Another team that's hit a rough patch of form recently after an excellent start, Real is still unbeaten on the year even if some draws against inferior competition have them trailing Atletico on goal differential.

3. Barcelona (preseason #1): Poor results and a Messi injury have Barca falling behind their all-world uber-team rivals although the overall talent on display is strong enough that it's hard to drop them much further than third even if they haven't quite performed to that level thus far.

4. Atletico Madrid (preseason #5): An incredibly impressive start to the season sees Atletico leading La Liga conceding only 2 goals in 7 matches and sitting atop their CL group after defeating Bayern at the Vicente Calderon.

5. Juventus (preseason #6): Juve has started the new season very well winning 6 out of 7 games in Serie A and sitting top of their CL group after a win and a draw there.

6. Liverpool (preseason #14): Now, I did say these rankings are subjective, and I may be stepping out on a limb here, but I truly believe that Liverpool's the best team in England right now. They've started the season with a ridiculously tough schedule having to take on Arsenal, Spurs, and Chelsea all away from home, and they came away with 2 wins and a draw from those 3 games. Furthermore, the shots and possession have showed a team that has actually been underperforming an incredibly impressive goal haul thus far.

7. Manchester City (preseason #4): City started the season as well as anyone in Europe winning their first 10 matches, but an injury to their best player, Kevin de Bruyne has turned things around. In the 2 games since the injury, they've played a 3-3 draw against what should have been a completely overmatched Celtic, and lost to Tottenham Hotspur.

8. Borussia Dortmund (preseason #10): Despite a couple early losses, BvB has a goal differential of +10 in 6 Bundesliga matches and had the better of the play in an exciting 2-2 draw with Real Madrid. They have an incredibly deep squad and are managing to beat solid teams by large margins even when they rotate.

9. Paris Saint Germain (preseason #7): PSG has faced quite an adjustment period with Unai Emery coming in from Sevilla and taking the team over, losing 2 and drawing 1 in Ligue 1 and only sitting even with Arsenal in the Champions League despite easier fixtures. He's still an excellent manager with a wealth of talent though, and I'd expect them to round into shape as the season wears on.

10. Manchester United (preseason #8): Could easily be argued that this is too high, but talk about a team with a wealth of talent. There's big-time superstars all over the pitch just fighting for playing time and without decrepit Wayne Rooney holding them down, I like their chances to turn it around. Their first half with him on the bench, United outscored champions Leicester 4-0.

11. Arsenal (preseason #9): Really struggled over spots 9-11 as objectively Arsenal has been better than both the teams above them so far drawing away at PSG, and outplaying Man U in the Premier League. Obviously Arsenal is no slouch talent-wise either. I just see the other two teams a tiny bit better going forward.

12. Tottenham Hotspur (preseason #13): Another English team, and another team with a strong argument to be ranked much higher. Spurs are actually undefeated in the Premier League although they did lose 2-1 at home to Monaco in the Champions League.

13. Chelsea (preseason #11): Conte was probably hoping for a better start than 4 wins, 2 losses, and a draw when he took over at Chelsea, but there's no shame in losses to Liverpool and Arsenal.

14. Napoli (preseason #15): Not only is Napoli sitting second in Serie A after a strong start, they're also top of their Champions League group with wins over Dynamo Kyiv and Benfica.

15. AS Monaco (preseason unranked): Monaco has been arguably the surprise team of the entire season as I didn't even have them in the Top 25 coming in. Now though, they're sitting second in Ligue 1, 3 points ahead of PSG with a league-best GD of +13, while their Champions League performance has been even more impressive still, beating Villarreal both home and away, then beating Spurs at White Hart Lane and drawing with Bayer Leverkusen to top their group.

 

If you're just talking about who's had the most impressive start to the season, I agree it's Atleti, but based on who's likely to win a match played next week (my criterion here), there's no way you can take them above the giants. Even with the lead in La Liga, they're still an 11/2 underdog to win the league compared to no worse than 2:1 for Barca or Real. Right now, there are three teams in world football that can basically just take one of the best players in the world at any position they want, and even if the next tier can beat them for a week or a tournament or even a season, it's really hard for any of them to actually become a better team than the Big 3.

 

That's silly to say that Atletico has had a more impressive last 3 seasons than Bayern. Bayern has won the Bundesliga all 3 years with 82 wins, 11 draws, and 9 losses. Meanwhile, in La Liga Atletico has 1 title, finishing 3rd both of the other seasons with a record of 79 wins, 19 draws, and 16 losses. That's almost twice as many dropped points for Atletico with Bayern recording more wins despite 4 less games each season. In domestic cup competitions, Bayern won the DFB Pokal 2/3 years while Atletico didn't even make a final in the Copa Del Rey and only made the semis once. Yes, Atletico advanced further 2 out of 3 years in the Champions League, but one of those was just on away goals. That's nowhere near a big enough difference to counterbalance Bayern's complete dominance domestically in a league that is at least on par with La Liga.

 

Yeah, and they also only had to play one real game which they got at home. If they had to play at Bayern, or had to play Barca twice or had to play City twice, they probably wouldn't be in that position. They're back to 3rd in their domestic league too.

Look Atleti's a very good team, but it's silly to complain that they're behind Barca, Real, and Bayern. In reality, they're much closer to the Manchester City/Juve/Liverpools of the world than they are to the Big 3 juggernauts.

 

Here's teams listed by the best possible odds you can get on them to win the Champions League, and the suggested probability of winning implied by those odds for each team:

Barcelona: +350 (22.2% to win)
Bayern Munich: +360 (21.7%)
Real Madrid: +600 (14.3%)
Atletico Madrid: +1100 (8.3%)
Manchester City: +1100 (8.3%)
Juventus: +1600 (5.9%)
Borussia Dortmund: +1600 (5.9%)

Notice that despite that glistening 4-0-0 record that gives them a better chance to advance out of their group in first with a favorable R16 draw than any of the teams they're in competition with, Atletico is still given the same odds as Manchester City by the oddsmakers to win the competition, has less than half the chance of Bayern despite being 2 points ahead of them in the same group, and is closer to Juve and Dortmund than they are to Real (who's currently 2nd in their group and may have a tough draw ahead of them). The fact is Atletico is clearly a second tier team.

Now if you want to argue whether Dortmund or Liverpool should be the 4th team in the bottom of that 2nd tier, that's a much more legitimate argument to have. I'll admit I'm irrationally high on Liverpool. It's not based on any kind of historical record so much as it is on watching them play, and watching them continually badly outplay some of the best teams in Europe. Against Arsenal, against Spurs, against Chelsea, against United, they were just clearly the better team every time, and 3 of those were on the road.

 

Seriously, Liverpools just sooo good. All you have to do is watch them. It's like watching the Warriors last year in basketball. They're playing the game a different way than everyone else and no one has an answer for them. I'm not saying they're as good or better than Atletico, but it's definitely close. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Pool win a 2-legged tie between the two of them if they were in the same competition. Remember, I'm not comparing them on their accomplishments over the course of years, just on who's likely to win a match played right now.