While certainly Iran can lose to any of these sides, and even to teams of lesser merit than either Panama or Honduras, I don't agree it would be a coin flip. In my book, Iran will have a decided advantage in a home-away format. Teams like Panama and Honduras will likely get spanked in Tehran, while Iran will have the tools to at least draw them away.
Playing at Panama and Honduras is o picnic either. It is truly hard to judge how Iran would play on the road in Central America. In my mind just as hard to judge how those teams would play in Iran. So that is why I think it is a coin flip.
Panama has improved tremendously over the last few years. I would back them to beat Iran in a 2 legged playoff. Honduras however is presently very crap.
Even if Honduras is presently bad that does not mean they won't wake up in the qualifying Hex. And their Home field is a reason why.
Why everyone is assuming Bosnia is gonna finish over us is sort of terrifying. Yes we had a terrible qualification run but its not like they managed to do anything better, they failed to qualify to the Euro. Im not saying we have high hopes of qualifying, but deleting this qualifiers from our memory high chances are we will be the ones seeing the play offs instead of a dead bosnia the last 2 years. When playoffs occur however, its too hard to qualify even with them , unless we make a tremendously great run and end up top seeds. Teams like France or Netherlands from Gorup A Switzerland from Group B Poland from Group E Italy or Spain from Group G and Turkey from Group I are gonna be likely play off contenders. If we are lucky and we end up playing playoffs against a Ukraine, Ireland, Romania, Slovakia, Austria , Serbia , Czech Rep or Sweden , those would be some even match ups.
Ok, so I have an almost two-year advantage over the OP, but here goes: CONCACAF: USA, Mexico, Panama, Costa Rica CONMEBOL: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Uruguay AFC: South Korea, Qatar, Japan, Australia CAF: Tunisia, Algeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Ghana UEFA: France, Switzerland, Germany, Serbia, Poland, England, Spain, Belgium, Croatia, Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, Bosnia, Russia (hosts)
CONCACAF: USA, Mexico, Panama, Costa Rica CONMEBOL: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Uruguay AFC: South Korea, Iran, Japan, Australia CAF: Tunisia, Algeria, Ivory Coast, Cape Verde, Ghana UEFA: Russia, France, Portugal, Germany, Austria, Poland, England, Spain, Belgium, Croatia, Netherlands, Hungary, Italy, Wales Not fancy, but what I think is likely to go down...
It would be quite a free fall if Ecuador does not make it, but would not surprise me the least bit. It is going to be so difficult to predict the remaining qualifiers in South America.
I totally forgot the draw was a few weeks ago and I have to say I was incredibly bummed when I saw it. Seems like it's impossible for CAF to protect it's best teams in these draws the way they do in Concacaf, UEFA, and the AFC. The worst you ever see there is typically a group with 3 quality high end teams that could show well in a tourney, with only 1 auto ticket, and 1 playoff ticket in the offing: This is how Portugal and Sweden missed out in '98, the Netherlands missed out in '02, Croatia in '10 etc. For some reason though it feels like CAF has no problem shoving 3 or 4 of the best 8 or so teams in all of Africa into one group, with one winner, and goodnight Irene if you don't take your group. It's just brutal, and how in hell do they justify grouping back to back qualifier Algeria, flagship CAF side Nigeria, lock to qualify except in '06 cause of an idiotic penalty Cameroon, and recent cup of nations winner Zambia all in one freaking group? When I see that it just screams RIGGED. You have basically what looks like about 6 or 7 teams with zero WC pedigree (though in some cases, rising powers, perhaps?) in this batch, another 8 that have WC pedigree, and then another 5 or 6 teams that may or may not have made the WC, but accomplished very little while there, so how they jam in, 3 of the 8 sides with pedigree, in one group, and spread the other 5 among 4 groups is just insanity to me. Every cycle this garbage happens in CAF. Not saying it's rigged, because of the draw process, its inevitable some groups will be stronger than others, but jesus. Doing what they did, to me, is the equivalent of UEFA having Germany, France, Italy, and Denmark in one group (in terms of relative strength of the sides in comparison to the region), and saying, "yeah" random draw. Good luck to you. I see now that the pots were determined by the asinine models the inept, corrupt, witless yokels of FIFA designed. Brilliant. CAF is using the worlds worst ranking system to decide their pots, and surprise, the rankings are insanely stupid. Does FIFA necessitate they use that garbage? Regardless, it's super sad, and really depressing that we are almost assuredly yet again, going to have some really weak sides representing CAF poorly compared to what could have been sent. Hopefully Ghana, and Senegal can qualify and do the business (as long as it isn't against my US side), and whatever side managed to climb out of that death pit that is group B can be rewarded with a reasonable group in Russia. Then again it's Russia and its FIFA (otoh, it's Ghana and/or Ivory Coast that lands the group of death for CAF seemingly every cup so there's that, too). Regardless, just very very bummed out for Algeria, Nigeria, Zambia, and Cameroon. Its just ridiculous.
The funny-tragic thing about that is that for all the bashing Suarez took for doing that, Uruguay, clever (or cynical) to the end, had inculcated multiple players with that commitment. Doubt it, check the replay on youtube. It could have been the other guy, there were two Uruguay players, not just Suarez, who were anything but still and hopeless as that ball made it's way seemingly inevitably into the net, leaping and raising their hands to bat the ball out. Guess Uruguay didn't take the "using your hands and getting away with it with subtlety" lecture series Torsten Frings gave in the summer of '02. Always struck me as funny that noone ever mentions the other Uruguay player doing EXACTLY the same thing as Suarez as Ghana was about to score, the ball just found its way to Suarez instead. However there's definitely no second biter on the grassy knoll if you review the Uruguay-Italy footage, now that was all Suarez.
Senegal (don't think they'll give the other teams a chance, Senegal is the team to beat IMO), Ghana (or Egypt), whoever makes it from group B will make a strong set of teams. Not sure about Cote d'Ivoire, who are not having much next generation success so far (save for a top class defence they could have really used during the Drogba era). Mali could have a nice side by 2018, especially if Monaco's Adama Traore develops to his Pogba-level potential. Morocco meanwhile has some more than decent players (Masina, Benatia, Belhanda, Boufal), so whoever makes it from this group should also be decent. The elephant in the room is Group A and the travesty that is Tunisia, DRCongo, Libya and Guinea. A ridiculously weak group... I can only hope that DRCongo ousts Tunisia and gives a decent showing of themselves at the World Cup. Bakambu, Mbemba, Bolasie, Kebano... could be an interesting attacking outfit. They usually are pretty laid back tactically, but just a pleasure to watch.
I don't see why not. Mexico got banned for the same issue in 1990, so it's happened in other confederations too, but illegality of that sort tends to be most prevalent where things are the least stable, and trust in institutions is non-existant. Anyway I would also argue that saying things like, "we were cheated," and "biased reffing" is to blame for our poor performances is a bit weak. Everyone can say that except for teams like Brazil and Germany, which makes it funny when Brazil gets hosed (like the Copa Centenario this summer. Nothing is funnier than the self-righteous indignation of an international side that has gotten the benefit of virtually every call imaginable always against the little side going back decades until '66 when Pele was practically a victim of prison style assaults by Portugal everytime someone passed the ball to him). Take USA-brutalized by the refs against Germany in '02, Ghana in '06, Slovenia, and Algeria in '10, but blessed by the refs against Mexico in the R16's in '02 (O'Brien Handball), and against Canada in the Gold Cup a half decade ago. England gets away w/a ridiculous foul against T&T to spare their blushes in '06, but is totally hosed against Germany in '10. Unless you're the biggest dog in the show, or you're hosting, you won't get calls with any consistency. Studies have shown that basically refs tend to go the way of the home side due to fan pressure, and a lil edge for the favorites, but beyond that, the calls are usually the calls, unless a guy was paid off. In other words, if you aren't a dominant world power, or at home, then like in a boxing match, you need to dominate your opponent no matter who you are, to avoid random bad calls screwing you. It happens to everyone. I'm sure if fans of the opponents you think got away w/things looked back at the games they could find where they were hosed too, and if not in that specific game, then certainly in others, just as I imagine if Nigeria is playing Equatorial Guinea in a neutral stadium, if there are bad calls, they're more likely to benefit Nigeria just due to reputation/randomness, and Equatorial Guinea is probably only going to end up on the positive side of ball calls purely from randomness, or if they were hosting, rather than playing in a neutral stadium. It's just how it works. When the US plays roadies against Guatemala, Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama, or Mexico, we know we have to decisively dominate and score repeatedly, to insure victory, if the game is close, a ref may just discover that Greg Berhalter has three arms, rather than two, in a crucial moment, late on, just as Canada is probably still shaking its head at the US actually getting some rare hometown cooking in a gold cup semifinal years ago (utterly bogus that that goal was called offside-i say rare because refs up until recently had little reason to be bothered by hometown pressure in the US, the way they would in games hosted in the mountains in say Honduras fifteen years ago in a qualifier, totally different pressure due to the differences in soccer culture and fandom at the time).
http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tou...ionsfwc2018russia_short_e_v210415_neutral.pdf says: "Any seeding based on team performance for each confederation’s preliminary competition shall be based on the FIFA/ Coca-Cola World Ranking."
I'm not bashing Suarez at all, in fact I actually praised him for that. It was funny, but yeah I believe any player would do that in that situation if they could.
That's the weird thing (and I wasn't implying you were, I was referring to posts back in '10, and over the intervening years leading up to '14, where there was a lot of bile directed at him), most don't. Its really strange, you see guys all the time jump feebly up trying to clear it off with their head, then again not a lot of the instances are as late on as that goal was going to be, that's what made it so brilliant, the penalty for doing it being a straight red and a PK, but for Uruguay the straight red was meaningless because if I recall correctly, the play took place in the last moments of extra time. Kind of a weird flaw in the penalty system for a violation like that.
Yeah. Although the red card still meant something because Suarez missed the next game. If Suarez played against Netherlands, Uruguay might have won it. That was a really close game actually.
I don't really feel bad for Cameroon. They have stunk up the joint at the WC for a while now, really I would rather see somebody else have a shot. Zambia had a Greece type win of the ANC and just like Greece are kind of falling off the map right now, won't even qualify for the next ANC. Algeria and Nigeria however could possibly be the best 2 African sides come 2018. Algeria has the most technical players who play sexy football, currently form wise they are the best side in Africa. Nigeria has IMO the most potential of any African side to do true damage in 2018 should they qualify, but much of this depends on how quickly we can sort out our new coaching situation. We have apparently just hired Paul Le Guen. We have a whole bunch of youngster comming from the U17 worldcup winning team of the last 2 editions. Guys like Iheanacho and Iwobi were playing regularly for Arsenal and Mancity respectively. Throw in veterans like Mikel, Victor Moses, and Onazi, who is still only 23, new stars like Isaac Success(new Watford signing) and many others. There has never been this much talent in the wings for Nigeria since perhaps the golden team of 1994. The draw is due to the FIFA rankings which are absolutely terrible even within confederations. CAF needs to adopt a qualifying format similar to AFC where we somehow have 2 groups of 6 and a playoff for the final spot. This will almost guarantee the 5 best squads. As it is group A is extremely weak. I hope Tunisia does not make it because they have benefitted the most from the FIFA sham rankings, and they were the least deserving of a seed. DR Congo has been improving of late and finished 3rd in the last ANC. They could be a descent side. Group B is between Nigeria and Algeria IMO. God help CAF if Cameroon somehow manages to qualify. Group C will be a tough battle between CIV and a resurging Morocco. Morocco now has Herve Renard as coach who twice won the ANC with CIV and Zambia respectively. He knows CIV in and out so IMO Morocco has the slight advantage. Group D should be Senegals unless they choke, which is a possibility. Group E is obviously between Ghana and Egypt, with the Egyptians seeking the same sort of revenge the U.S. served the Ghanaians in Brazil. I don't fancy being in these type of positions against an opponent that will be highly motivated for revenge. IMO Ghana is the better side, but anything can happen in qualifying.
I can only agree. AFC still pops up the odd random result (eg North Korea in 2010) but at least the random teams got there by finishing ahead of a more fancied rival, not because they got a soft draw. I defer to your knowledge of the current state of African National teams, but based what I've seen in World Cups over the years the groups do seem very unbalanced.
I think CAF's problem is that they have a limited number of matchdays available to play WCQ's due to the fact that there are two AFCONs in a four-year cycle. That's why they keep having to use silly formats like this or the one they used for 2014. I think CAF either needs to scrap the second AFCON or find a way to somehow incorporate WCQ into AFCON qualifying. With no 2017 AFCON, for example, CAF could have two group stages, like they do in AFC.
I also wonder about Gabon. They seem to have two world class players that are very promising for their clubs. Lemina from Juventus, and Aubemeyang from Dortmund. Anyway I think Algeria is the best african side by far. They have a few players that play for world class clubs in Europe. Mahrez was a huge part of Leicester's EPL title. Mahrez is not to be underestimated at all. Then we have Brahimi, Silmani, Soudani, and Ghoulam who all play for clubs in Europe that are either in the UCL or Europa League. By far the best team. Then I think Gabon is next. Lemina looks very promising, and Aubemeyang was one of the best players in the Bundesliga last season. Lemina has great skill, and Aubemeyang has great pace and are both special players. Gabon is my pick for the dark horse. Then I say Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, and Ivory Coast.
I didnt think you were, I was referring to the trashing he got on these forums after the game, and then again in the run up to Brazil '14. It was just kind of silly.
Not really. It was about to be a two goal victory for Holland until a Uruguay scored a consolation goal deep into stoppage time.
CAF used to combine WC and ACoN qualifying but even when they did so they still had a similar WC qualifying scheme. Yeah... They need to get their shit together. It only takes a minor tweak to fix this problem. For e,g have four groups of six teams. Then the four second place teams could play-off for the final WC spot, while the top four in each group qualify for the ACoN. So easy.... That said, doesn't Nigeria and Cameroon kinda suck right now? Not sure that group is so brutal like people are saying. My main problem is that WC qualifying in CAF comes down to only 8 matches per team. That's not enough to seperate the good from the mediocre.
Cameroon is always decent within Africa, it's when they get to world ups that they seem always destined for failure. They have a very decent squad and can easily beat Algeria or Nigeria on their day. Right now I would say they are a top 10 team in CAF. Nigeria has missed 2 straight ANC'S . The first one in 2015 was unforgivable, but the format for 2017 meant that we were up against Egypt for one direct birth. Yes CAF has retarded ANC qualifying procedures as well. Basically Nigeria dominated Egypt over the 2 legged affair but gave up an equalizing goal in extra time at home, and then lost away 1-0 despite being slightly the better side. I wouldn't say Nigeria suck at all, just going through a period of instability with 3 different coaches in just 2 years. There was a lot of corruption in player selection which didn't help matters, but we hope with Le Guen he will be able to turn things around. We beat Cameroon in a friendly late last year 3-0, but I am sure they would have learned from that. I actually think Nigeria has more potential than Algeria if they can get things right with all the emerging youth talent. Anyways Algeria, Nigeria, Cameroon are all top 10 in Africa IMO. I think Algeria and Nigeria are both top 5 teams, though we've been a let down since the WC in Brazil.
Gabon isn't even a top 10 side in Africa despite those 2 high profile players. They struggled to even make it to the final rounds of qualifying, needing a penalty shootout victory over Mozambique at the end of the 2 legged playoff. I agree that Algeria is the best team in Africa right now though.