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Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by HomokHarcos, Feb 11, 2017.
These are my predictions
Yes, I imagine the same.
Uruguay or Colombia could take a place but Portugal has the confed cup to gather some extra points, so it's unlikely.
I say Spain will probably find a way to get a seed.
Wow just realized it's possible to have Colombia, Uruguay, Italy, Netherlands and Spain all unseeded.
Based on the current FIFA Rankings, UEFA and CONMEBOL would have 4 seeds each. The unseeded teams would be:
10 from UEFA (1 pot and 2 more)
1 from CONMEBOL (assuming they beat OFC)
5 from CAF
3 or 4 from CONCACAF
4 or 5 from AFC
If the 2 unseeded UEFA teams separated from the rest are selected randomly from the 10 unseeded UEFA teams (rather than taking the best 2 or worst 2), you could have this group where the record for worst Group Stage performance could be threatened:
Portugal (unseeded from UEFA pot)
Spain (unseeded from UEFA, CONMEBOL and CAF pot)
United Arab Emirates
Actually I think Portugal will be unseeded too. Teams that did really well in the Euros or Copa America 2016 will probably drop in the rankings once those tournaments fall out of the 12 month window.
That's bad news for Chile, Portugal and France. And good news for Spain and Uruguay. So I think that 8 seeds are:
I pick Colombia over Uruguay because for Colombia even to qualify (which I think they'll manage eventually) they'll have to win a lot of games in 2017 which would logically help their ranking.
Won't Portugal and Chile have the opportunity to improve their FIFA Rankings in the Confederations Cup? The only competitions before the World Cup draw that are weighted more than World Cup qualifiers are the Confederations Cup and Gold Cup.
Oh yes, good point. I forgot about that that tournament which is weighted so heavily in the FIFA rankings formula. I guess they'd only drop a bit then. They might still drop a bit though since the opposition strength generally isn't as high as in, say, the Euros.
with the way, fifa ranking is calculated, it heavily helps lower ranked teams with a good qualification cycle to ricochet from nowhere to the top. in that case, i would not be suprised, if ireland, poland, ukraine, switzerland again, find themselves in the top 8 of the coca cola ranking on d-day ahead of the final draw.
True, good point. Switzerland is highly unlikely since 4 out of their 6 competitive matches this year will be against Andorra, Faroe Islands and Latvia (average FIFA ranking: 133).
But look out for Ireland and Croatia!
Uruguay were the big losers last night. They might drop out of the top 12 or even top 15 by the time the April FIFA rankings come out!
If they're not careful they might even fail to qualify for the World Cup!
It quite possible that 3 of them will not even qualify. Netherlands are 4th in their group halfway through, one of Italy or Spain will have to win a playoff. And it is possible, but I would not bet on it, that on of Uruguay or more likely Colombia fall out of the top 5 in Conmebol. Uruguay is sitting second with a relatively easy schedule to finish out the qualifying.
additionally, Uruguay managed to get a seed last time after winning the Copa, and Chile have 2 Copa wins at their back.
Russia Brazil Argentina Chili France Germany seem sure seeds to me.
In balance for 2 remaining places: belgium, portugal, colombia, uruguay, spain.
Things got even worse for Uruguay. It seems like they always prefer drama in the Qualification process.
And if some how , some way Colombia can keep on grinding results they may be a seed for a second straight tournament. (I am hoping.)
Where did you get the idea that points of those tournaments only count for 12 months ?.
points count for 4 complete years (48 months), my friend
After each year they count less than the year before, but still counts, and at the end are decisive.
You don't really get much points by just winning the tournaments. You really get them by winning more matches in those tournaments. Usually teams that won them, is also the team that won the most amount of matches, but that not always happens. Sometimes whom comes behind won more matches than the team that won the tournament.
And in both, Copa America Centenario and the Eurocup, played last year, the losing finalists won more matches than the team that at the end raised the cup, so they won more points than the champion.
But champions do have another opportunity to win big points, in the next years, as by being champions they got tickets to play the Confederation cup, where each win counts the same as if it were the WC, which is proportionally a huge amount of points, the same year the draw for the WC takes place. So whomever manages to win, say, 3 matches in that short small tournament, they can almost get full certainty that they'll get seeded for that draw, if they qualify to the WC.
The finalist of continental tournaments, only get to watch this tournament from home.
And for the case of Uruguay, it wasn't their Copa America win what really got them to be seeds at the draw, but the points they won in the Confederation Cup played in Brazil 2013 (and they only won 2 matches, and had 1 draw, there).
Yes, I know. When I said 'drop out of the 12 month window' I meant their Euro 2016 run wouldn't count 100% anymore. And considering they are only barely clinging to a top 8 position even with Euro 2016 results counting 100%, that could be problematic.
But yeah... after I posted that I remembered the Confederations' Cup which counts just as much. So 100% of Confed Cup results + 50% of Euro 2016 results could still see Portugal rank quite high in the FIFA rankings come October this year.
netherlands is probably not going to be in russia at all
Their FIFA ranking has taken such a hit that even if they manage to finish second in their group (best case scenario), they'll likely be unseeded in the playoff draw meaning a potential matchup against Italy/Spain, Portugal, Belgium, etc.
#10 Spain drew 2-2 with #5 Colombia today. That's not gonna help Spain's chances getting a seed.
Also #12 Italy beat #16 Uruguay 3-nil.
Uruguay's form has really dipped, however, I think they will find their groove come WC time. They do need to find a first-rate attacking midfielder soon, especially with Carlos Sanchez's age beginning to show.
3. Argentina (will qualify)
5. Chile (will qualify)
6. Portugal (will qualify)
7. Switzerland (will qualify)
8. Poland (will qualify)
Friendly matches give very low amount of points for FIFA's ranking.
To base all chances in getting seeded on them, is completely delusional.
Only matches that always counts the same no matter at what level or type of tournament, are defeats, but in this case they always count negatively
To get the required points, you do so basicly on what your team does in continental type of tournaments and at the past WC (although given that they are from 3 years ago, these last points count lots less).
Settle-down. I never said all their chances rested on the friendly. But since Spain is on the cusp of getting a seed, every match is important now. Even though this was a friendly, Colombia is #5 in the world so there was a chance to get a adequate amount of points (if Spain had won).