(cross-posted to Climbing the Ladder) RANKING Code: Overall Games Points 1 Italy 2.263 19 43 2 Germany 2.750 8 22 3 Netherlands 2.600 20 52 4 Croatia 2.474 19 47 5 Sweden 2.389 18 43 6 England 2.368 19 45 7 Romania 2.250 20 45 8 Czech 2.238 21 47 9 Poland 2.143 21 45 10 Portugal 2.136 22 47 11 Spain 2.053 19 39 12 France 2.053 19 39 13 Greece 2.000 20 40 14 Turkey 2.000 20 40 15 Russia 1.952 21 41 16 Ukraine 1.900 20 38 17 Serbia 1.900 20 38 18 Norway 1.842 19 35 19 Israel 1.842 19 35 20 Denmark 1.800 20 36 21 Switzerland 1.800 10 18 22 Scotland 1.789 19 34 23 Bulgaria 1.737 19 33 24 Ireland 1.632 19 31 25 Slovakia 1.571 21 33 26 Bosnia 1.526 19 29 27 Finland 1.522 23 35 28 Austria 1.500 10 15 29 N.Ireland 1.316 19 25 30 Hungary 1.211 19 23 31 Slovenia 1.158 19 22 32 Belgium 1.150 20 23 33 Albania 1.100 20 22 34 Lithuania 1.053 19 20 35 Latvia 1.050 20 21 36 Wales 1.000 18 18 37 Estonia 0.955 22 21 38 Belarus 0.895 19 17 39 Macedonia 0.810 21 17 40 Georgia 0.810 21 17 41 Cyprus 0.778 18 14 42 Armenia 0.750 20 15 43 Iceland 0.632 19 12 44 Liechtenstein 0.571 21 12 45 Moldova 0.526 19 10 46 Azerbaijan 0.444 18 8 47 Malta 0.444 18 8 48 Kazakhstan 0.364 22 8 49 Andorra 0.238 21 5 50 Faroe Islands 0.053 19 1 51 Luxembourg 0.000 21 0 52 San Marino 0.000 19 0 53 Montenegro xxx xxx xxx CURRENT POTS Pot 1: Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Croatia, Sweden, England, Romania, Czech, Poland Pot 2: Portugal, Spain, France, Greece, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Serbia, Norway Pot 3: Israel, Denmark, Switzerland, Scotland, Bulgaria, Ireland, Slovakia, Bosnia, Finland Pot 4: Austria, N.Ireland, Hungary, Slovenia, Belgium, Albania, Lithuania, Latvia, Wales Pot 5: Estonia, Belarus, Macedonia, Georgia, Cyprus, Armenia, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Moldova Pot 6: Azerbaijan, Malta, Kazakhstan, Andorra, Faroe Islands, Luxembourgh, San Marino, Montenegro WCQ MOCK DRAW Group A: England, Portugal, Finland, Lithuania, Belarus, Montenegro Group B: Croatia, Serbia, Denmark, Austria, Liechtenstein, Faroe Islands Group C: Sweden, Russia, Ireland, Belgium, Macedonia, Andorra Group D: Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Latvia, Iceland, Luxembourg Group E: Czech, Spain, Switzerland, Slovenia, Georgia, San Marino Group F: Netherlands, Norway, Israel, Wales, Moldova, Azerbaijan Group G: Italy, Greece, Scotland, N.Ireland, Estonia, Malta Group H: Poland, Turkey, Bosnia, Hungary, Cyprus, Kazakhstan Group I: Germany, France, Slovakia, Albania, Armenia Format: 9 Group winners qualify automatically. Best 8 runners up playoff for remaining 4 spots.
There are only a few more games for each team, so there won't be huge changes from here on out. Still, there's plenty of drama for teams on the verge of moving up or down a pot, especially for that top pot. It looks like there are 6 teams fighting for the last 3 spots in the first pot. Personally, I hope that Portugal, Spain, and France don't get there, because having those teams in the second pot could make for an exciting group of death in the WCQ. That would also be good for the USA in 2010 if the good teams don't qualify. Spain and France are up against it, though. The best both could do is 2.181 (48/22). Romania would only need 8 points in their final 4 games to best that. Spain probably has the hardest schedule left; they play Sweden and Denmark. France will likely need to win in Ukraine in the final matchday. Games remaining for those 6 teams: Code: Romania 4 Netherlands (H), Luxembourg (A), Bulgaria (A), Albania (H) Czech 3 Germany (A), Slovakia (H), Cyprus (A) Poland 3 Kazakhstan (H), Belgium (H), Serbia (A) Portugal 4 Azerbaijan (A), Kazakhstan (A), Armenia (H), Finland (H) Spain 3 Denmark (A), Sweden (H), N.Ireland (H) France 3 Faroes (A), Lithuania (H), Ukraine (A) I would project that Romania, Czech, and Portugal would take the three spots.
Haha, OMG Polish I presume! I guess you're clouded by anger but please do not throw out conspiracy accusations. Sweden always play to win. In the end, should Sweden be some sort of baby-sitter for Poland ?, shouldn't Polish supporters depend on the Polish NT to put Poland in a cup ?. If the situation was reversed, I would only be disappointed in the Swedish NT and not on Poland.
Some analysis on likely UEFA pots 1-4 Pot 1 (based on points needed to reach 2.20 average): In (1): Italy Almost in (5): Code: Team Cur Need Left Source Netherlands 2.60 1 4 Luxembourg Croatia 2.47 2 3 Israel, @Macedonia Germany 2.75 5 4 Cyprus + two home games England 2.37 4 3 Estonia + Croatia or @Russia Sweden 2.39 6 4 Latvia, @Liechtenstein In the fight (4 for 3 spots): Code: Team Cur Need Left Source (other Opponents) Czech Rep 2.24 6 3 Slovakia, @Cyprus; (Germany) Romania 2.25 8 4 @Luxembourg, Albania; (Netherlands, @Bulgaria) Poland 2.14 8 3 Kazakhstan, Belgium; (@Serbia) Portugal 2.14 11 4 @Azerbaijan, @Kazakhstan, Armenia; (Finland) Czech Rep. looks safe. The others have some work to do, Poland might have the hardest path. Need help (4): Code: Team Cur Max Left Opponents France 2.05 2.18 3 @Faroe Islands, Lithuania, @Ukraine Spain 2.05 2.18 3 @Denmark, Sweden, Northern Ireland Turkey 2.00 2.17 4 @Moldova, Greece, @Norway, Bosnia Greece 2.00 2.17 4 Bosnia, @Turkey, Malta, @Hungary Pot 2 (based on points needed to reach 1.90 average): 5 teams left from above are in barring a total collapse. In the fight (8 for 4 spots): Code: Team Cur Need Left Source (other Opponents) Russia 1.95 5 3 @Andorra; (@Israel, England) Serbia 1.90 8 4 @Armenia, @Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan; (Poland) Ukraine 1.90 8 4 Faroe Islands, Lithuania; (@Scotland, France) Norway 1.84 7 3 @Malta, @Bosnia; (Turkey) Israel 1.84 7 3 Macedonia; (Russia, @Croatia) Denmark 1.80 10 4 Latvia, Iceland, @Northern Ireland; (Spain) Scotland 1.79 8 3 @Georgia; (Ukraine, Italy) Bulgaria 1.74 9 3 @Albania, @Slovenia; (Romania) Israel, Scotland and Bulgaria likely to fall short; Denmark & Norway also has a tough road. Serbia is the only one that seems to be in. Need help (2) Code: Team Cur Max Left Opponents Ireland 1.63 1.82 3 Germany, Cyprus, @Wales Switzerland 1.80 1.80 - Pot 3 (based on points needed to reach 1.50 average): 6 teams left from above are in (Ireland needs 2 points from 3 games). In the fight (5 for 3 spots): Code: Team Cur Need Left Source (other Opponents) Austria 1.50 0 - Slovakia 1.57 3 3 San Marino, @San Marino; (@Czech Republic) Finland 1.52 4 3 Azerbaijan, @Belgium; (@Portugal) Bosnia 1.53 4 3 (Norway, @Turkey, @Greece) Nor Ireland 1.32 8 3 (Denmark, @Spain, @Sweden) It looks like Bosnia and Northern Ireland will miss the cut. Both Slovakia and Austria are in. Need help (2) Code: Team Cur Max Left Opponents Hungary 1.21 1.45 3 Malta, @Moldova, Greece Belgium 1.15 1.46 4 Finland, Armenia, @Poland, @Azerbaijan Pot 4 (based on points needed to reach 1.00 average): 4 teams left from above are in. In the fight (7 for 5 spots): Code: Team Cur Need Left Source (other Opponents) Slovenia 1.16 0 3 Albania; (Bulgaria, @Netherlands) Albania 1.10 2 4 Belarus, @Slovenia; (Bulgaria, @Romania) Lithuania 1.05 2 3 @Georgia; (Ukraine, @France) Latvia 1.05 3 4 Liechtenstein, @Iceland; (@Denmark, @Sweden) Wales 1.00 4 4 @San Marino, @Cyprus; (Ireland @Germany) Estonia 0.95 3 2 @Andorra; (@England) Belarus 0.89 5 3 Luxembourg, @Albania; (Netherlands) With theoretical chance(3) Code: Team Cur Need Left Macedonia 0.81 7 3 Georgia 0.81 7 3 Cyprus 0.78 8 4
All clear for December EURO draw -> uefa.com "The UEFA Executive Committee also decided that the draw for the European qualifying competition for the 2010 World Cup – to take place in Durban, South Africa, on 25 November – would be based on FIFA national team rankings." The pots -> link.
In English: Current Pots Pot 1: Italy, Germany, Netherlands, France, Spain, Portugal, England, Croatia, Czech Pot 2: Romania, Scotland, Greece, Poland, Ukraine, Sweden, Turkey, Serbia, Russia Pot 3: Denmark, Norway, Ireland, Israel, Bulgaria, N.Ireland, Bosnia, Switzerland, Finland Pot 4: Slovakia, Wales, Hungary, Belgium, Macedonia, Cyprus, Belarus, Slovenia, Albania Pot 5: Iceland, Moldova, Lithuania, Austria, Armenia, Latvia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan Pot 6: Malta, Estonia, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Faroes, San Marino Mock Draw Group A: Netherlands, Poland, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Armenia, Liechtenstein Group B: France, Greece, Bosnia, Wales, Lithuania, Estonia Group C: Spain, Turkey, Denmark, Albania, Ausria, Faroes Group D: Portugal, Serbia, Switzerland, Belgium, Georgia, Andorra Group E: Czech, Sweden, Norway, Macedonia, Iceland, Malta Group F: Croatia, Romania, Ireland, Slovenia, Kazakhstan, Montenegro Group G: Germany, Ukraine, Israel, Hungary, Latvia, Luxembourg Group H: Italy, Russia, N.Ireland, Belarus, Azerbaijan, San Marino Group I: England, Scotland, Finland, Slovakia, Moldova
??! FIFA rankings are more accurate than they used to be before the WC and the pots actually look better than with the old method. Because everyone is playing in the same confederation (duh) the FIFA rankings are mostly fair, too. Only Switzerland and Austria are getting screwed over because their lack of meaningful games hurts them in the rankings.
that's a fair point. though they are hosting euro 2008 so it could be looked at as the positive cancels out the negative..
So true I wander how much France and Spain being out of pot 1 using the better system had to do with the change. Now UEFA get the five "big" countries (Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and England) in pot 1. England used to be at risk under the new system, but two September wins fixed that issue for UEFA. The big loser seems to be Sweden (near certain pot 1 to lower-mid of pot 2). The big winner (other than Spain and France) might be Scotland who moved from a probable pot 3 to have an outside chance at pot 1.
This is a ********ING SCANDAL! They do anything to let the big names play in WC. Although Sweden is a lot better than Spain, Spain is seeded and Sweden not. Basically this system allow teams to play against San Marino and Lichenstein 15 times and suddenly be in pot 1. I promise you that in 20 years Spain, England, France etc dont even have to bother qualififying. The most important thing is to have money. Modern football...
The problem with the old system is that it didn't actually factor-in how teams did in the Euro and World Cup finals. That's a major flaw IMO. Also, it was inherently flawed because a team's record in qualifying is obviously a function of how difficult their group is, which is a function of what seed they were allocated in previous qualifiers. In other words, the pots for the WC 2010 draw would have been a function of the pots for the Euro 2008 draw. So teams like Scotland could never move up. Now, even if Scotland finish 3rd in their Euro 2008 qualifying group, their difficult schedule will be factored-in for the WC 2010 qualifying draw. They'll still be in pot 2 (assuming they beat Ukraine and Georgia next week) because of their strong showing in a brutal group. And they would deserve that. I'm glad they changed it.
Regardless if this was a major flaw or not, the new system doesn't address it for two reasons: About half the finalists actually lose points for playing in the finals since their results for the year are divided by 3 extra games and their scores for this 3 games are worse than their average for the year before the final. The results of the WC06 are discounted by 50%, Euro04 is 80% discounted. That is simply not true, 4th pot teams (e.g. Ukraine, Norway) which did well in WCQ moved up a pot, while some pot 2 team (e.g. Ireland, Belgium, Slovenia) dropped two pots. Using the old system, Scotland (a pot 4 team) would already be in Pot 3 for WCQ and have an outside chance at Pot 2 (considering they had a poor 2006 WCQ this is a nice move). You are right, if they beat Ukraine and Georgia they would be almost assured of pot 2. However, if they only tie these two games, they are in trouble for two reasons: From Dec 06 to Nov 07 Scotland would play 10 games compared with 9 from Oct 06 to Sep 07. The net result is that all their scores for the games between Dec 06 to Sep 07 would be worse 11% less than they do in the Sep 07 ranking. Some good scores (e.g. win vs France in Oct 06) will be discounted by 50%. This alone might cost them over 75 points in the ranking (if my math is right). Scotland's lead over UEFA's 19th place (Denmark) is 231 points. Something to think about: Northern Ireland after two loses (each loss is 0 points) in Sep lost 179 points (they did have a win over Liechtenstein in lat Aug worth 502.5 points). Bosnia with two Sep loses and a friendly loss in late Aug, lost 219 points. The claim that the new system reward you for a "strong showing in a brutal group" is overrated. Scotland's win at France was worth 1470 points. Come Nov 07 it will be one of 10 game so it would contribute 147 points for the yearly score. Four days before, England played Israel (a pot 4 team) at home, England's win was worth 1252.50 points. If we were to divide it by 10 as well (I'm not sure how many game England would have), this game would contribute 125.25 points. In this case the difference between a pot 4 team beat a pot 1 team away and a pot 1 team beating a pot 4 team at home is less than 25 points. For beating Israel and Russia, England earned a total of 2572.5 points, Scotland for beating France and Lithuania (pot 5 team) got a total of 2385. Even if you disagree with all of the above, for me, a major reason against this new system is that 2006 WCQ results play almost no role in determining the pots for 2010 WCQ (2005 WCQ results are discount 70%, 2004 WCQ results by 80%). This means that a team like Scotland which underperformed (1.3 points/game) in 2006 WCQ will get a "free pass" on these results when the pots for 2010 WCQ are determined. I like the idea that qualifiers for a WC have a meaningful impact on the seeding for the next WC. We'll agree to disagree.
Well, the next world cup is not being played in Europe. So if history is any indication, UEFA teams will struggle! So to answer your question: No, they should not.
The question was if they did dominate the 2006 WC, which of course is true. Usually, past achievements are used to justify WC spots, not future projections. South America didn't lose any spots for 2006 just because they usually don't do so well in Europe either. So let's look at the past three WCs: 1998: overall: 15 UEFA teams (~46.9%) round of 16: 10 UEFA teams (62.5%) quarter finals: 6 UEFA teams (75%) semi finals: 3 UEFA teams (75%) 2002: overall: 15 UEFA teams (~46.9%) round of 16: 9 UEFA teams (~56.3%) quarter finals: 4 UEFA teams (50%) semi finals: 2 UEFA teams (50%) 2006: overall: 14 UEFA teams (~43.8%) round of 16: 10 UEFA teams (62.5%) quarter finals: 6 UEFA teams (75%) semi finals: 4 UEFA teams (100%) So in all of the last three WCs, UEFA had more teams in the later rounds (percentage wise) than in the first round, even during 2002 which was a horrible year for UEFA. However, 2006 more than made up for 2002, but instead of regaining the lost spot, UEFA loses another one for 2010. That's surely not fair. What did Asia do to justify their 4.5 spots? Unless we already count Australia, they didn't have a single team in the second round in 2006.
at the end of the day, rightly or wrongly, we all know that extra places have nothing to do with previous performances and everything to do with FIFA politics.
Fifa are obviously pushing from the global side of things. Most of Europes top sides are always going to make it. So to Fifa if they can nudge out some of the lesser European nations in exchange for lesser world nations, it spreads the appeal of the competition and more than likely generates more cash. They are happy to sacrifice the quality of the games in the WC to make more profit, probably masking their true intent under the umbrella of 'World Football Development'
Well, they do have something to do with previous performances (obviously) since neither 45% of the world's population nor 45% of the world's countries are in Europe. Anyway, too much discussion on this topic has been done already IMO. And since I'm neither Bahrainian, Trinidadian, Serbian or Togolese, I can't really be bothered getting into a long debate about how one spot should go here instead of there. *BIG YAWN*