Pots for WCQ 2010 - UEFA zone

Discussion in 'UEFA and Europe' started by Edgar, Dec 14, 2005.

  1. deyna199

    deyna199 Member

    Sep 6, 2005
    Vancouver
    Nat'l Team:
    Poland
    thanks mate, i appreciate it.....
     
  2. jpick

    jpick Member

    Jul 5, 2006
    jacksonville, FL
    Club:
    AC Milan
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    yeah, that's cause it's a straight average. Yes, no system will be perfect, but their should be, say, a bonus for qualifying to offset (or at least partially offset), the drop in average, a la the bonuses given for champs league advancement (yes, that is different cause the average is not in games played, but the rule can be applied here), so that teams who qualify and crash out are equal to under the old system, but teams who advance far in actual important tournaments get those points added on with a multiplier, so say like a win is three points, but in wc quarterfinals it is multipled by 1.25, semifinal 1.4 and final 1.5, while giving bonus points along the way as you are now getting more games, so you don't want losing in the semis to bring down someone's ranking. that is essentially what fifa rankings do, they multiply to give more weight to important wins, etc. I haven't worked out the exacts of this, but this current system could lead to some really dumb results, worse than fifa rankings. poland is better than italy (if they weren't world cup champions) and france and spain and portugal and england, blah blah. this is even moreinceible when you take into account some of those teams hqad really long unbeaten streaks, italy got to 25 games before croatia b team friendly, france also and I think spain did too until the world cup. it is just nonsensical to me that croatia, sweden, and poland are so high above all those powers who advanced far in the world cup.

    admittedly, the exact numbers and procedures would have to be worked out, as I haven't given too much thought to them, but that seems like a start.
     
  3. Forza AZ

    Forza AZ New Member

    Jun 26, 2003
    Alkmaar
    The results of WC 2006 and Euro 2008 qualifying:

    Poland
    WC 2006: 24 points from 10 matches
    Euro 2008: 16 points from 7 matches (so far)
    total: 40 from 17 = 2.353 points/match

    France
    WC 2006: 20 points from 10 matches
    Euro 2008: 12 points from 5 matches (so far)
    total: 32 from 15 = 2.133 points/match

    Edit: Sorry, I only see now it was already posted.
     
  4. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    this is a very stupid and comical system, why does it not take into account the WC and the Euro championship themselves instead of qualifying. This is worse than just using the fifa rankings. I have never seen such a ridiculous method used before.
     
  5. WambachWoodenOrnamen

    Dec 17, 2005
    As explained above it's not as bad of a system as our resident crybaby and physical football hater would have us believe. After all the draw is to decide pots for qualifiers, so the teams that have been most successful in a lenghty, demanding home and away round-robin in the recent past should be given the best seeds - once the Championship stage is reached, then performance in recent tournaments should be used to determine pots. I agree though that it perhaps would be beneficial to make some statistical amends for the uneven quality of past groups - but would it make that much of a difference? Is Poland's present Euro group with Portugal, Belgium, Serbia, and Finland any worse statistically than France's with Italy, Ukraine and Scotland? Let's see, based on current FIFA rankings, using only the rankings of France's and Poland's opponents, and omitting those countries themselves since they can not play themselves:
    Italy - 2; Ukraine - 11; Scotland - 16; Lithuania - 76; Georgia - 85; Faroe Isl - 182. Total: 372. Average FIFA position: 62

    Portugal - 8; Serbia-28; Finland -32; Belgium -55; Armenia -119; Kazakhstan - 143; Azerbaijan - 123. Total: 532. Average FIFA position: 72.5

    So we have an average difference of about 10.5 spots in the FIFA ranking in favor of France's opponents. What does it mean, if anything? And how to account for that advantage with respect to pots, I don't know.
     
  6. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    If the purpose is to qualify the best teams from Europe, then this system automatically eliminates some of them, and gaurantees that a few featherweight sides will qualify. Oh well, hopefully my team gets a side like Poland or Scotland in their group.
     
  7. jpick

    jpick Member

    Jul 5, 2006
    jacksonville, FL
    Club:
    AC Milan
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    wambach, with all due respect a straight average is absolutely silly, as the difference between #100 and #180 is negligible (for big nations will easily dispose of both 99 out of 100 times) and not near as big as the difference in quality betweeen #15 and #30. that is why in elo ratings, a win over #100 gives a good team about the same amount of points as a win over #180 (basically nothing for both), but a non-negligible difference in points between beating #10 and #25. in your system, the difference between faroe islands and Kazakhstan exactly makes up for the difference in quality of italy over portugal, ukraine over serbia and scotland over finland combined.
    In something like the elo ratings, the bottom three or four teams would all basically cancel each other out, and then the top three opponents all having such vast differences in quality, would make france's multiplier over poland's pretty vast. your system way overvalues the comparison of the bottom teams.
     
  8. Sagy

    Sagy New Member

    Aug 6, 2004
    I think that in the Poland-France discussion people might be confusing "Better team" with "Better results". I think that everyone would agree that France is better than Poland; however the same is not true if you look at their results in Euro08 & WC06 qualifiers.
    1. WC06
      • Poland only lost points(6) to England, they swept Austria, Northern Ireland and Wales (playoff in 2004) - very good performance for a 2 seed. Before you dismiss Northern Ireland - in their last 9 qualifiers they have beaten England, Spain and Sweden as well as tied at Denmark.
      • France lost points to Switzerland(4), Israel(4) and Ireland(2) - poor performance for a 1 seed.
    2. Euro08
      • Poland (still a 2 seed) - Tie with Serbia (expected), loss to Finland (very bad) somewhat made up for by a win over Portugal (1 seed).
      • France (still a 1 seed) - Loss to Scotland (4 seed).
    Right now Poland has the lead over France - they started this campaign with a 4 points lead and now have 8 points, but France has two games in hand. The biggest advantage that Poland has is that group A has two 7 seeds which effectively gives them an extra 0.250 points (6/24) combined with the 4 points carryover France is 0.417 behind. This seems like a lot, but the reality is that if France can get as many points as Poland (in two fewer games) they will pass Poland. Both teams have 7 games left (France needs to make up 4 points):
    Code:
    Poland         France
    @Azerbaijan    Ukraine
    @Armenia       Georgia
    @Portugal      @Italy
    @Finland       Scotland
    Kazakhstan     @Faroe Islands
    Belgium        Lithuania
    @Serbia        @Ukraine
    No one will be shocked if Poland drop points in Portugal, Serbia or Finland and even a tie with Belgium will not make headlines - if they don't they earned a 1 seed. France on the other hand is expected to win 5 of the 7 games, if they don't they probably don't deserve to be a 1 seed.
     
  9. EruditeHobo

    EruditeHobo Member+

    Mar 29, 2007
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    i don't think anyone is saying that the qualifying results don't matter... but why shouldn't the results at those championships count for something? france was just in the world cup final, if they aren't in pot 1 isn't something wrong?
     
  10. deyna199

    deyna199 Member

    Sep 6, 2005
    Vancouver
    Nat'l Team:
    Poland
    watch Poland and France end up in the same group regardless :D
     
  11. Sagy

    Sagy New Member

    Aug 6, 2004
    They were a 1 seed for the Euro 2008 qualifiers (draw was done before the WC).

    All the system says is that in order to keep that 1 seed for WC 2010 qualifiers they need to perform well as a 1 seed during this campaign. It will probably take an average of 2.20-2.30 to be in the top 7 (Italy as champions gets a 1 seed). This means that France needs 17 points out of the last 7 games (15 or 16 might do it with some luck). Since 1 seeds requires around 75%, France needs an 80% average this time in order to bring their average up from 67% last time.

    If France is one of the top 7 UEFA teams, they should be able to do that (they had 100% in Euro 04 qualifiers). If they don't, teams like: Germany, Netherlands, Croatia and Portugal will surely finish ahead of them and England (if they get 13 points in 6 games) and Sweden (13 in 7) are also looking good for a top seed, this leaves us with one spot and France has to show that they are better than Serbia, Turkey, Poland, Czech, Romania and Spain (if they go 7 for 7).

    If this is "wrong", you are basically saying that two games against Spain and Brazil in which France was very good (maybe excellent) during less than a week in June 2006, are much more important than 22 games covering more than 3 years Sep 2004 to Nov 2007. More than that, for this to be "wrong", these two WC games should erase home ties with Israel, Switzerland, Ireland and a loss to Scotland, away ties at Israel and Switzerland plus some other poor result(s) (otherwise they will still get 17 points in 7 games).

    Just like Arsenal (as CL finalist) didn't get a head start in the EPL (the "qualifier" for the CL) France as the WC finalist, should not get a head start in the next WC qualifier - they need to earn it. The UEFA system is not perfect, but it is reasonable and rewards teams for their on the field accomplishments.
     
  12. EruditeHobo

    EruditeHobo Member+

    Mar 29, 2007
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    your point would be very well taken i were saying 'throw out the qualifying games, just use the 6 cup games!', but i'm not. but the world cup is a fifa thing and not a uefa thing, so it generally makes sense.

    but the teams that would suffer from what could be considered a misjudgment would not be a france, it would be the lesser teams that face france as a pot 2 team. but i see your point.
     
  13. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Updated after this week's results. I went ahead and gave Sweden the 3 points against Denmark. Also, I've separated the teams into eight groups so you can see what the pots would look like. Eight groups seems like the most likely scenario.

    [result]Poland really hurt themselves by losing today. France seems likely to overtake them now. Romania also is charging up the ranks and has a serious shot at the top pot.

    Czech, Ukraine, and Turkey hurt themselves also. Meanwhile, Israel and Russia are knocking on the door of the second pot.[/result]

    This includes results from the 2006 and 2008 qualifying campaigns, so most teams have 17-19 games taken into consideration here.

    Code:
              		PPG
    1	Italy   	2.294
    2	Germany 	2.714
    3	Netherlands	2.556
    4	Sweden  	2.471
    5	Croatia 	2.412
    6	Portugal	2.316
    7	England 	2.294
    8	Poland  	2.263
    		
    9	France  	2.235
    10	Romania 	2.211
    11	Czech   	2.158
    12	Serbia  	2.118
    13	Spain   	2.059
    14	Ukraine 	2.056
    15	Greece  	2.053
    16	Turkey  	2.000
    		
    17	Russia  	2.000
    18	Israel  	1.944
    19	Norway  	1.824
    20	Switzerland	1.800
    21	Denmark 	1.778
    22	Bulgaria	1.765
    23	Ireland 	1.765
    24	Bosnia  	1.706
    		
    25	Slovakia	1.684
    26	Scotland	1.647
    27	Finland 	1.500
    28	Austria 	1.500
    29	N.Ireland	1.375
    30	Hungary 	1.176
    31	Albania 	1.158
    32	Belgium 	1.056
    		
    33	Belarus 	1.000
    34	Lithuania	1.000
    35	Latvia  	1.000
    36	Slovenia	0.941
    37	Wales   	0.938
    38	Estonia 	0.895
    39	Macedonia	0.842
    40	Georgia 	0.800
    		
    41	Armenia 	0.737
    42	Liechtenstein	0.632
    43	Cyprus  	0.500
    44	Iceland 	0.471
    45	Azerbaijan	0.444
    46	Malta   	0.412
    47	Moldova 	0.412
    48	Kazakhstan	0.350
    		
    49	Andorra 	0.263
    50	Faroe Islands	0.056
    51	Luxembourg	0.000
    52	San Marino	0.000
    53	Montenegro	0.000
    
     
  14. no_name

    no_name Red Card

    Jun 1, 2007
    im prefer head to head record in case of same points. we dident qualify to the last world cup becuse goal diffrences with swis
     
  15. EruditeHobo

    EruditeHobo Member+

    Mar 29, 2007
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  16. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    Confirmed today.
     
  17. Sagy

    Sagy New Member

    Aug 6, 2004
    Some back of the napkin analysis:

    Pot 1: (Guess 2.250 and you are in)
    1. Italy is in (WC holder)
    2. Netherlands (needs 8 points from 6 games), Sweden (8/5) and Germany (8/5) are in barring total collapse
    3. Croatia is in if they can average 1.8 pts/game considering they have 6 of the 9 points it looks promising; so all they need is a win over Israel or @FYRM (three ties will also do the job).
    4. Portugal will probably need 15 points in 7 games and they have 12 in the bank already. So all they need is 3 points from home game vs Finland, Poland and Serbia.
    5. England is in if it can win its 4 home games, all they need is 11 points from 5 games (this will also put them in Euro 2008).
    6. Last spot is to be contested by:
      • France (12/5)
      • Serbia (17/7)
      • Czech Rep (13/5)
      • Romania (12/5 they still need to play @Bulgaria and vs. Netherlands so two ties will drop them below 2.25).

    Pot 2: (Guess 2.000 needed)
    1. The 3 teams that didn't make it to pot 1.
    2. Spain (9/5, can get to 2.25 if they win out), Poland (5/5, needs 11 for 2.25 ave) and Greece (9/5, needs to win out for 2.25 ave) are in.
    3. Ukraine needs 11 points and have 6 in the bank, if they can beat Lithuania away, a pot 2 spot looks safe.
    4. The last spot is between Turkey (12/6), Russia (10/5, but they have to play England twice and @Israel), Israel (9/4, no easy games).
    5. Norway (13/5), Ireland (15/5), Bulgaria (15/5), Denmark (16/6) and Bosnia (15/5) can also reach 2.00 average.

    Pot 3: (1.600)
    1. Switzerland (done with 1.800), Turkey (3/6) or Russia (1/5) and Israel (1/4) are solid.
    2. Norway (5/5), Ireland (6/5) and Bulgaria (6/5) all probably safe since all have at least one easy game.
    3. The last 2 spots are between Denmark (7/6), Bosnia (7/5), Slovakia (7/5) and Scotland (8/5) whoever will have a stronger finish will get pot 3.

    Pot 4: (1.100)
    1. The two left over from pot 3 and Austria (done at 1.500).
    2. Finland is also safe since they can't drop below 1.154 (need 12 points in 6 game to average above 1.60).
    3. Northern Ireland (3/6) is also solid (they will need 14/6 to reach 1.60).
    4. The contenders for the last 3 spots are:
      • Hungary (5/5)
      • Belgium (8/6)
      • Wales (10/6)
      • Belarus (8/5)
      • Albania (5/5)
      I don't think that any of the others has a realistic chance to reach 1.100 Some of these include:
      • Latvia (9/6)
      • Lithuania (8/5)
      • Slovenia (9/5)
    It might be that a team with a 1.000 average will make pot 4 :(
     
  18. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Good analysis Sagy. Here's the best and worst possible scenarios based on these pots:

    Toughest Possible Group

    Italy
    France
    Denmark
    Belgium
    Slovenia
    Iceland
    Montenegro

    Easiest Possible Group

    Poland
    Greece
    Bosnia
    Albania
    Estonia
    Malta
    San Marino
     
  19. Amerikaki

    Amerikaki Member

    Sep 19, 2005
    Queens
    Interesting thread.
     
  20. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    9 groups in the WCQ - UEFA zone -> uefa.com

    The pots -> link (it's in Romanian, sorry about that).
     
  21. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Wow, exciting news. At least for the 5-10 of us who follow this stuff religiously. :)

    So that means that there will be less qualifying games, and definitely less room for error for the favorites. That's definitely a good thing for the USA, Romania, or any other non-superpower.
     
  22. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Code:
              		PPG
    1	Italy   	2.294
    2	Germany 	2.714
    3	Netherlands	2.556
    4	Sweden  	2.471
    5	Croatia 	2.412
    6	Portugal	2.316
    7	England 	2.294
    8	Poland  	2.263		
    9	France  	2.235
    
    10	Romania 	2.211
    11	Czech   	2.158
    12	Serbia  	2.118
    13	Spain   	2.059
    14	Ukraine 	2.056
    15	Greece  	2.053
    16	Turkey  	2.000		
    17	Russia  	2.000
    18	Israel  	1.944
    
    19	Norway  	1.824
    20	Switzerland	1.800
    21	Denmark 	1.778
    22	Bulgaria	1.765
    23	Ireland 	1.765
    24	Bosnia  	1.706		
    25	Slovakia	1.684
    26	Scotland	1.647
    27	Finland 	1.500
    
    28	Austria 	1.500
    29	N.Ireland	1.375
    30	Hungary 	1.176
    31	Albania 	1.158
    32	Belgium 	1.056		
    33	Belarus 	1.000
    34	Lithuania	1.000
    35	Latvia  	1.000
    36	Slovenia	0.941
    
    37	Wales   	0.938
    38	Estonia 	0.895
    39	Macedonia	0.842
    40	Georgia 	0.800
    41	Armenia 	0.737
    42	Liechtenstein	0.632
    43	Cyprus  	0.500
    44	Iceland 	0.471
    45	Azerbaijan	0.444
    
    46	Malta   	0.412
    47	Moldova 	0.412
    48	Kazakhstan	0.350
    49	Andorra 	0.263
    50	Faroe Islands	0.056
    51	Luxembourg	0.000
    52	San Marino	0.000
    53	Montenegro	0.000
    
    The following teams move up a pot:

    France
    Israel
    Russia
    Slovakia
    Scotland
    Finland
    Belarus
    Lithuania
    Latvia
    Slovenia
    Armenia
    Liechtenstein
    Cyprus
    Iceland
    Azerbaijan
    Andorra
    Faroe Islands
    Luxembourg
    San Marino
    Montenegro

    Edgar, you have Malta and Azerbaijan switched (or I do).
     
  23. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Here's a mock draw based on the new pots:

    Group 1: England, Serbia, Switzerland, Albania, Armenia, San Marino
    Group 2: Croatia, Israel, Slovakia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan
    Group 3: Netherlands, Spain, Scotland, Slovenia, Estonia
    Group 4: Sweden, Greece, Norway, Hungary, Wales, Moldova
    Group 5: France, Czech, Finland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Montenegro
    Group 6: Portugal, Romania, Ireland, Austria, Macedonia, Faroe Islands
    Group 7: Germany, Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Iceland, Malta
    Group 8: Italy, Ukraine, Denmark, N.Ireland, Cyprus, Andorra
    Group 9: Poland, Turkey, Bosnia, Belgium, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg

    Seems like there's the possibility for more unbalanced groups this way as well (since 9 teams is a lot for one pot).
     
  24. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    Little of both :)

    I was in a hurry and I used the right order of teams, but the old values for the coefficients.

    I fixed it now -> link

    On the other hand, we don't have the same values for Armenia and Azerbaijan because I already gave them 2 games more after UEFA cancelled their games -> uefa.com (the same article with the WCQ)

     
  25. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    I take that news to mean that since neither game will be played, then they'll only have 12 games played instead of 14.
     

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