Fair point on the correction re Braga; I was mixing it up with the previous leg. I hope Porto can eliminate Young Boys because then we'd have the team with the creepiest name out of Europe. Four teams still in Europe out of five would be an outstanding result. Three would be solid. Anything fewer would be disappointing.
Three draws, two wins. Good week. Not a great week, a good week. Finally one team is eliminated (Vitoria Guimaraes), but there's a chance for four to get through to the next round, though it may take some fancy footwork. Here's the story: Leipzig 2-2 Benfica. On paper this appears to be a good outcome: Benfica tied the group leaders away, who beat them at home to open group play. In fact, this was a gut-punch of a result. Benfica led 2-0 in the 90th minute only to give up two goals, one in the sixth minute of stoppage. As a result, they stand on the brink of elimination from Europe with only four points from five group games. Zenit beat Lyon in Russia, so that means there's really only one direct path for Benfica to stay in Europe: beat Zenit by more than three goals. That would reverse the goal difference on them so that Benfica would be at least third; and theoretically they could still qualify from the group if Leipzig beat Lyon by a similarly large margin. Regardless, this draw felt like a loss. News from the Europa League was better: Sporting CP 4-0 PSV. This big win over the Dutch side confirmed Sporting's progress to the next round and kept them in first place. They play at second-place LASK (Austria) next round, and a draw or win will win them the group. Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Standard Liege. V Guimaraes got their second group point running with a draw that could have seen them get all three points. They've played really well this tournament, better than their point total suggests. Still, with only two points they are eliminated and locked into finishing fourth. Young Boys 1-2 Porto. When YB took an early lead, I worried that Porto would again underperform as they have nearly every game this group stage. But two late goals snatched all three points, and now Porto will advance with a home win over group bottom team Feyenoord. That's no easy task though; Feyenoord beat Porto 2-0 in Holland. And right now Porto sits third on goal difference with seven points behind Rangers (8) and Young Boys (7). Given the way tiebreakers work though they will advance past YB so long as they match their point total. If they win and YB beats Rangers, Porto will win the group. Braga 3-3 Wolves. This was a solid result especially after going down 1-3 early on. Braga (and Wolves) confirm advancement, and Braga will win the group if they match or exceed the points Wolves get in the final game. Two teams through to the next round. Porto in pretty good shape. Benfica hanging by a theoretical thread. Vitoria out. Next round would be good to see Porto take care of business and Benfica whoop some Russian ass. Speaking of which, Portugal continues to stretch their lead on Russia in the overall UEFA coefficient. Portugal have 8.1 points to Russia's 4.333. That's good for a lead of just over two points vs Russia in the overall standings.
Whoa seems that I overlooked the possibility of a three-way tie among Zenit, Benfica, and Lyon. In such a scenario, Benfica would advance to the Europa League as things currently stand: Benfica 2-0 Zenit, Lyon 1-2 Leipzig. In fact even if Lyon draw even I think Benfica will still advance v Zenit because of away goals. Crazy part is I think if Benfica gets one more goal they may advance out of the group. Need to wait to see how the games wrap up of course; Benfica blew it late last time.
Holy shit a third for Benfica, and Lyon equalizes. On these scores, Benfica is through to the Europa League and Zenit is out of Europe. Great outcome for UEFA coefficient.
Yesterday's win could not have been more important for Portugal's UEFA coefficient campaign, especially vis a vis Russia. By beating Zenit, Benfica gained 2 UEFA points for Portugal, prevented Russia from getting any, saved its shot to get more points in the Europa League, and prevented Zenit from earning any more points by eliminating them from Europe. With the win, Portugal sits 6th overall in Europe, just .1 point behind Holland, on 8.5 points. By contrast, Russia is 17th and has 4.33 points. If Porto can get the win tomorrow and advance in the EL, that will give Portugal four teams alive in Europe (out of five total) to continue picking up points. By contrast, Russia will probably be down to one--Krasnodar in the EL, ironically the team that eliminated Porto to start the CL this year. Watch for Lokomotiv in the CL today, if they lose or tie at Atletico Madrid (likely) they're eliminated from Europe as well.
With Lokomotiv losing today, Russia is down to two teams. CSKA will be eliminated tomorrow; even with a win they'll be last in their group. Krasnodar plays at Getafe and will be eliminated unless they win. There is a very good chance that Russia will have zero teams left in Europe after tomorrow, and even if Krasnodar manages a win they will have just the one.
A big day: Porto beats Feyenoord 3-2 at home; Braga beats Slovan Bratislava 4-2 in Slovakia; and perhaps most impressive and surprising, Vitoria Guimaraes gets two late goals to earn their first win of the group stage at Eintracht Frankfurt. Sporting was the lone down note, getting drubbed 0-3 at LASK in Austria. Even so, Portugal has four teams of five through to the next round of the EL, and Vitoria acquitted themselves very well and got enough points not to be a drag on the UEFA coefficient (as the final qualifier from Portugal so often has been in past years). Porto and Braga qualify as group winners, Sporting in second spot, and Benfica for getting third in their CL group. This is important because it means Portugal can keep accumulating UEFA points--assuming the teams retain decent form and win at least a couple rounds. And as @fdasilva pointed out, with Krasnodar getting only a draw and CSKA already guaranteed group bottom, no Russian teams are left, so Portugal has officially regained sixth spot in Europe from the Russkies. That lead is now 3.3 points and can only get larger. I believe the draw for the R32 is Monday; should be interesting.
R32 draw: Sporting CP v. Istanbul Basaksehir Bayer 04 Leverkusen v. FC Porto FC Shakhtar Donestk v. SL Benfica Rangers FC v. SC Braga
No real clue about how this all breaks down. Sporting is the only unseeded team of the four in the draw but they got the opponent who is the least known quantity. Porto struggled with Rangers, but not sure how that would translate to a different team that, like Braga, is playing much better in Europe than Porto. German teams always play Portuguese teams tough in European competition, so Porto has their work cut out for them. Shakhtar is historically a strong team, but I know nothing about their current edition; that one will depend on if Benfica can build on their momentum from the big win over Zenit.
Ultimately not a great first day of the knockout rounds: Rangers 3-2 Braga Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 SL Benfica Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FC Porto Sporting CP 3-1 Istanbul Basaksehir Results look esp bad in light of Braga blowing a 2-0 lead at Rangers. That said, while the haul of UEFA points isn't great from this, all four teams are reasonably well qualified to advance. Sporting obviously looks the best on paper, but if they screw up in Istanbul (tough place to play; shit happens) they could be out. 0-2 would be enough to do it. For Braga, Porto and Benfica, if they win by more than one goal, they'll be through. If they win by a goal but keep the score down to 1-0 they'll also be through. Braga can win 2-1 and go through. All these outcomes seem reasonable; the trick of course is to actually do it.
Total meltdown: Benfica 3-3 Shakhtar Donetsk Porto 1-3 Leverkusen Braga 0-1 Rangers Istanbul 4-1 Sporting That's four teams eliminated in one day. Total UEFA points garnered in the elimination round stage: 1. That's a really shitty outcome in case it's not clear. Portugal still is fifth overall in Europe with a respectable but not spectacular final haul of 10.3 UEFA points. Scotland or France could pass us pending results. It's a decent year but a major opportunity missed. Only good news: Krasnodar lost so all Russian teams are out of Europe too. See you all next year.