Those are worst possible case scenarios and so important to know to ensure our fate. But it's reassuring to remember they are very pessimistic - for example if we were to finish poorly and get only a single point in our last three game we still make the playoffs unless POR and SJ both win 2 of 3 despite playing each other AND DAL goes 2-0-0 AND MIN picks up at least 1 point. All of those events could happen together, but not likely.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/LAGalaxy.html has our playoff probabilities based on points earned in last three: 3 pts: 100% 2 pts: 99.1% 1 pt : 98% 0 pts: 93% Overall prob: 99.5%
After 2-1 win at RSL probability of finish: Make playoffs: 100% 2nd: 58% 3rd: 32% 4th: 7% So 97% chance of first playoff game at home! What a difference three games make.
After going through this playoff probability thing last year, and feeling like we had made it after the first half of that stupid last game against Houston, only to choke three goals in the second half... I'm SOOOO happy to be here at this point- in the playoffs and most likely with a home game to start. I had written three weeks ago that we were in a precarious position, but the team has looked much more solid over the last weeks. Chance creation is way up, and if it weren't for some uncharacteristically wasteful finishing by Zlatan, he'd be ahead in the golden boot race, and we'd have won the last two games comfortably. If we can get it done against Vancouver, we've got our initial home playoff game locked up. And while I know it's not of any major importance, I'd really love for Zlatan to overtake Vela in the Golden Boot race just to snatch that little jewel right out from under LAFC at the last moment... especially when they've been essentially considering it his for most of this season. But if it doesn't happen... not too big of a deal. A better treat would be to knock them out of the playoffs.... Finishing with a win against Houston would also be nice. Hitting the playoffs with a five game win streak should boost some morale, but I gotta say: right now, I'm not really feeling afraid of anyone.
If I'm being honest, if the Gs end up playing the Timbers in the first round, it'd be a little concerning considering the types of games they've had.
After the POR draw and SJ loss came in our probabilities of 2nd remained same but our chances for 3rd & 4th improved a tiny bit: 2nd: 58% 3rd: 34% 4th: 8% Overall now 99% chance of 1 thru 4 finish and first playoff game at home and 1% chance of finishing 5th.
That means there is only an 9% chance of us playing at Chivas in second round (tickets currently $90 and up at Stubhub). If we face them it will be for western conference title. (Tickets currently $200+ on stubhub)
LAFC just clinched the shield. So...they don't play a meaningful game until October 23 / 24 , when they'll face the winner of the opening round of playoffs. That's a long time off.
The LA Galaxy blew a huge opportunity to possibly jump to second place last weekend. https://galaxygolazo.wordpress.com/2019/09/30/la-galaxy-and-the-disappearing-defense/
I was so depressed by the outcome that I put this off. But here are our probabilities after the 4-3 loss at home to VAN: 2nd: 8% (1st and 2nd playoff games at home) 3rd: 26% (1 game at home, 2nd game vs #2 on road OR 2nd game at home vs #7) 4th: 42% (1st game at home, 2nd game at LAFC) 5th: 24% (1st game on road, 2nd game at LAFC) How HOU game affects our final position -- We win @HOU: 2nd: If MIN ties @SEA. 3rd: If MIN does does not tie @SEA. We draw @HOU: 4th: RSL draws or loses @VAN. 5th: RSL wins @VAN. We lose @HOU: 4th: If RSL loses @VAN. 5th: If RSL draws or wins @VAN. So if we beat HOU we are guaranteed 2nd or 3rd place and avoid playing our 2nd game @ LAFC. If we don't beat HOU then we end up 4th or 5th depending on RSL results.
Ok, 5th place, worst possible outcome, could only happen if we lost @ HOU and RSL didn't lose @ VAN. Sadly, mission accomplished. Since we now have all playoff games on the road* our playoff advancement prospects are dire. 538 probabilitites: Make it to Conf Semifinal: 38% Make it to Conf Championship game: 6% Make it to MLS Cup: 3% Win MLS Cup: <1% Go Galaxy! *In theory we could have up to two home games! If we and DAL advance to WC final (hahahaha) we play the game at home. And after we win that game and TOR, DCU, NYRB or NER make it out of the EC we also get MLS Cup at home!** At that point of course we win #6 and then our short memories forgive GBS and everyone else on the team not named Skjoijo! ** Actual odds of that happening: Approximately 1 in not-going-to-happen.
MLS Cup odds, from @betonline_ag: LAFC 3/2NYCFC 4/1 Atlanta 10/1Philly 12/1 Seattle 12/1 Minnesota 16/1Galaxy 20/1Red Bulls 20/1Toronto 22/1DC 25/1New England 25/1 Real Salt Lake 25/1 Portland 33/1Dallas 40/1— Steven Goff (@SoccerInsider) October 8, 2019
It doesn't sound so bad, but 4 games to win MLS cup, right? My math is usually faulty, but (1/20)^(1/4) = 0.4728 ... so it'd be a good bet if you believe the Galaxy have better than a 47.3% chance of winning each game. If you believe home field advantage matters - and there is statistical evidence that it does - you're chance of winning a road game might only be 38%, which would mean 48:1 would be a fair bet.
Funny you should say that - fivethirtyeight has our chances of winning @ MIN at exactly 38%. (That is higher than it would be normally because draws have 0% probability in the playoffs.) And your math is indeed correct - we are 1 in 20 to win it all only if each playoff game is almost a coin flip. And objectively there is no way our odds are that good. But lets be generous to ourselves and assume we are actually 38% to win each road playoff game - as you point out that would make our our overall probability of winning the Cup ~ 2%. I would take that bet - risking $100 to win $5000 (or $10 to win $500). But only because I think the Galaxy's winning history in the playoffs has some intangible, psychological value, even though we are a different team. Any New Chivas fans here want to take me up on it?