Playoff and match probabilities

Discussion in 'LA Galaxy' started by skydog, Aug 6, 2019.

  1. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    #1 skydog, Aug 6, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019
    I thought I would create a thread for our playoff and game probabilities as estimated by Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com.* I've been posting them in individual game threads but those are scattered so we don't get to see season long patterns. Anyway, here is there latest predictions as of 8/6/19:

    Make playoffs: 85%, down from 87% immediately after ATL loss. Weekend games didn't help us - WC teams fighting for the last few playoff spots all earned points. SKC, MIN, RSL all won and SJE tied.

    WC final standings: 52pts, 4th place
    Behind LAFC 76(!), SEA 54, POR 53 and slightly above SJE 51, MIN 51, and RSL 50. So spots 2 through 7 are all up for grabs. But for us to get knocked out either FCD 47 or SKC 46 will have to do significantly better than predicted or us significantly worse.

    Team SPI (strength rating): 39.7, 6th in WC, down from 40.4 before ATL game. Should get better once Pavon is on the team and up to speed.

    Next game vs DCU: win 30%, loss 46%, draw 23%. Take this game prediction with a grain of salt because of all the injuries to DC and our possible addition of Pavon.

    * Nate has an excellent track record at predicting both politics and sports. He had Trump at 30% on election eve when others had him at less than 5% and his site nailed pretty much all of the 2018 races, state and national. He also had Toronto winning the NBA Finals when everyone else had Warriors. Soccer predictions are a newer addition but he has been refining his model over the last 4 or 5 years.
     
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  2. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    #2 skydog, Aug 11, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2019
    After yesterday’s games but before DC game our playoff probability up from 85% to 86%, so basically no change. DC game is out of conference but still 3 pts would be a big help.
     
  3. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    After the 2-1 DC loss:

    Make playoffs: 84%. Our playoff probability drops again, but only slightly.

    WC final standings: 52pts, tied for 5th with MIN. Race has tightened up with Dallas predicted to finish in 8th with 49 points, only 2 behind us. I guess the reason we are still 84% to make the playoffs is because it’s hard for all of our WC competitors to have good season finishes given they are playing each other.

    Team SPI rating: 40.8, 6th in WC.
    Interestingly our SPI rating went up (from 39.7) despite the loss. That’s because we went on the road and dominated, creating a lot more shot opportunities than our opponent. In fact from their 3 different measures of expected goals they “score” this game as a 2.1 to 1.4 win for us. So this loss wasn’t like the ATL loss where both the score and exp. goals were worse than expectations. Also I’m not sure if they have yet adjusted for the addition of Pavon and loss of Boateng.

    Next match @home vs Dallas: 52% to win, 26% to lose, 23% to tie.
     
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  4. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Oops - Predicted points is 51, not 52 as incorrectly written above. Rest of statement correct.
     
  5. Berks

    Berks Member+

    Dec 22, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is super cool @skydog - the math nerd in me loves this thread.
     
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  6. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    After 2-2 draw with SEA:
    90% to make playoffs, 48% to start playoffs with home game (end up 2nd-4th).
     
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  7. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    More info from the 2-2 SEA match - our team SPI rating dropped from 40.8 to 39.7. Why would our quality rating drop given we got a tie on the road despite playing a man down?

    Two reasons:
    1. Based on the in-game action the model says the final score flatters us a bit. Expected goals-wise it was scored a 2.7 to 1.6 win for SEA. Not surprising since they out-shot us 21 to 8 overall with 6 sog to our 4.
    2. We were 51% to win this game and we didn't. A draw was a bit below expectations.

    Countering those dinks to the SPI was the "adjusted goals" measure which favored us 2.1 to 1.7. (Two thirds of SPI ranking comes from expected goals and one third from adjusted goals). Their 2 goal output was adjusted down due to having more players on the field, ours adjusted up. I'm not sure what else affected this measure since they were penalized 0.3 while we were bumped only 0.1.

    Bottom line is this doesn't mean a lot. Our SPI has ranged bounced back and forth between 39.7 and 40.8 over the last few games. But it does serve as a complement to our live game perceptions, which of course are affected by emotions and selective memory.
     
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  8. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Remember guys/gals - I'm just the messenger. Probabilities for LAG @ LAFC:

    LAG win: 8%
    LAG draw: 12%
    LAFC win: 80%

    Even if we add in the Zlatan extra motivation & LAFC-hasn't-beaten-LAG bonuses this will still be a tough game. We will have to be hitting on all cylinders.
     
  9. TrickHog

    TrickHog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Oct 14, 2002
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The key will be the same as last match - bend but don't break when they throw everything at us - and then hit them on the counter with some Pavon-Zlatan magic when they've committed too many players forward.

    The good thing is that they won't play the way most teams have played against us to a high degree of success.

    The bad thing is they are the team that has enough offensive talent to get away with it....
     
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  10. The Cadaver

    The Cadaver It's very quiet here.

    Oct 24, 2000
    La Cañada, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Pitchforks out. Torches. Kill the messenger!!
     
  11. TrickHog

    TrickHog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Oct 14, 2002
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    [​IMG]
     
  12. MPNumber9

    MPNumber9 Member+

    Oct 10, 2010
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What do you think of those odds, Zlatan?

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    You were right!
     
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  14. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    After 3-3 draw with LAFC:

    Make playoffs: 93% (highest this season)
    WC Finish:
    2nd : 19%
    3rd: 19%
    4th: 18%
    2nd-4th (first playoff game at home): 57% (highest this season)

    SPI = improved from 39.7 to 40.5. But has remained in narrow range over the last several games.

    Likely most unpopular stat:
    Win MLS Cup: 2% (first time over 1%)
    Why so low? Because we would have to win 4 consecutive games and most likely two to four of them will be road games.

    Most likely paths required to win Cup, based on our WC finish:
    2nd: Two home wins plus two road wins
    3rd, 4th: Home win plus three road wins
    5th-7th: Four road wins.

    So finishing 2nd would guarantee two home games and possibly three (if LAFC is upset in their home opener). Since SEA is currently (narrowly) predicted to finish 2nd (with 54 points to our 52) a win there would be massive.
     
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  15. TrickHog

    TrickHog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Oct 14, 2002
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, the winner Saturday could end up with that 2nd seed.
     
  16. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Speaking of which, prob for @SEA game:
    LAG win 23%
    Draw 21%
    SEA win 55%
     
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  17. MPNumber9

    MPNumber9 Member+

    Oct 10, 2010
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I am merely a messenger.
     
  18. JPAR

    JPAR Member

    Aug 21, 2013
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    The playoff schedule is out. I hate these mid week games and I think it's a mistake for MLS to force them on fans. Attendance suffers big time on a Wednesday and if there is any travelling involved you can forget about away fans...which is a shame because it adds greatly to the game experience. I know they are doing it for TV purposes, but I think it's short-sighted. They could easily play the games one week apart and finish on the same date....

    For LAFC there is an 18 day gap between the last day of the season and their first game, I think that's actually a disadvantage, too much time not playing real games.
    https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2019/08/28/mls-announces-schedule-audi-2019-mls-cup-playoffs
     
  19. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Mlssoccer.com has posted the strength of remaining schedules (before Saturday night games) based on ppg of upcoming opponents, factoring in location (home vs away):

    [​IMG]

    The bad news: By this metric we have the 3rd toughest remaining schedule in the WC. Plus playoff competitors POR, VAN, SEA and RSL all have some of the easiest remaining schedules in all of MLS.

    The good news: 3rd toughest schedule is still better than what MIN & SJE are facing. Other good news - we control SEA's strength of schedule for one game at least.

    However you look at it we have our work cut out if we hope to finish in the top 3. Good outcomes this weekend -- a CIN win over DAL win, ORL over SJE and a POR-RSL draw(best outcome, right?) will help us. And of course a LAG win tomorrow will be huuuuuge...
     
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  20. MPNumber9

    MPNumber9 Member+

    Oct 10, 2010
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yep. We can't just hit par. We kinda need to go on a bit of tear.
     
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  21. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    RSL not picking up points last night helped us.

    Current WC points standings, adjusted for # of games played:

    1. LAFC: 2.30 ppg
    2. SEA: 1.59
    3. SJE: 1.57
    4. LAG: 1.56 (tied with MIN but we win 1st tie-breaker -- # of wins)
    5. MIN: 1.56
    6. RSL: 1.54
    7. POR: 1.48
    -------------------
    8. FCD: 1.48
    9. SKC: 1.32

    Changes based on outcome of today's game vs SEA:
    LAG win -
    2. LAG: 1.61
    7. SEA: 1.54

    LAG tie -
    3. SEA: 1.57
    7. LAG: 1.54 (6th if MIN loses today)

    SEA win -
    2. SEA: 1.64
    7. LAG: 1.50 (6th if MIN loses today)

    So a win is the difference between being in 2nd and 6th or 7th place at the end of the day. A draw wouldn't help current position but it might mean a lot by the end of the season.
     
  22. rtdavide

    rtdavide Member+

    Apr 20, 2005
    Whittier, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We are very much on the edge right now.
    Colorado may be getting that new coach bump... plus it's there at altitude, so getting points is going to be tough despite their record suggesting it should be a relatively easy game. Then KC is finally figuring things out.
    This means even those games that we figured we should be able to take 3 points are starting to look much more even.
    I think it'll be all we can do to just make the playoffs this year.

    The other teams in the WC might be cannibalizing each other, but that only works in our favor if, you know, we can actually win our games. if we don't clean up on our end, we don't outrun the competition and we are in a very precarious position. And it would absolutely be a gut punch to lose out on the playoffs yet again.
     
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  23. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    After 4-3 loss to SEA:

    Probability of making playoffs: 86%.

    Predicted final position:
    2nd: 10% (likely two playoff games at home)
    3rd-4th: 30% (likely one playoff game at home)
    5th->7th: 46% (road games throughout playoffs)
    8th->9th: 14% (season failure)
     
  24. The Cadaver

    The Cadaver It's very quiet here.

    Oct 24, 2000
    La Cañada, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I find this whole thing so depressing that it tells me I am too emotionally invested in this ream.
     
  25. TrickHog

    TrickHog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Oct 14, 2002
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That typo is incredibly appropriate.
     

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