PBP Match Thread: Switzerland vs Costa Rica, 27 June 2018 [R]

Costa Rica is the only team not to have scored a goal so far. Ironically, I predicted them to go home without scoring. Maybe they can get one in this. It would be a huge step backwards from being the sensation in 2014 to this.

 

Bizarrely, Group E actually plays after Group F tomorrow. So, the teams in Group E will know who their Round of 16 opponents will be if they finish first/second. If things go as expected, Mexico should top Group F with at least 7 points, and Germany should be runners-up with 6. Personally, I'm hoping Switzerland finishes second, because it gives Mexico an easier Round of 16 matchup than if they were to play Brazil, not that Switzerland is a bad side. If I were Switzerland, I'd rather play Mexico, as well. It will be interesting to see how Switzerland will approach this match, as finishing second may well be preferable to finishing first. A draw will guarantee them second, so as long as they don't fall behind, they may not want to go forward and try to score too many goals.

 

In.

 

if things go as expected.....

well, not a lot of that going around!

So. the Group winner gets Mexico, the #2 gets Sweden

Switerland has an Elo rating of 1930, and Costa Rica has 1709, so a difference of 221, for a win expectation 78%-22% for Switzerland

Note: The win expectation is a statistical construct and the Elo model doesn't model draws, so this should be viewed as a measure of relative strengths, since obviously draws are a fairly likely outcome. if you put in a 33% chance of a draw the breakdown would be somethign like:

51% Sweden Win, 33% draw, 14.5% Costa Rica win

I think I may start posting the Elo breakdown in games if people find that helpful.

 

Switzerland should beat Costa Rica - when teams start to play for their next game...it often comes back to bite them...(and it is no fun for us to watch!)

 

What the hell happened to Costa Rica? This side was incredible to watch in 2014. Most of the same players too, a number of them (Navas, Campbell) actually pretty decent.

Guess you could say that about a number of teams at this tournament, but still. Massively disappointing so far.

 

Guess the Ticos want to go out with a bang. Even if they win, though, nothing changes. Switzerland vs. Sweden is going to be an interesting one, they haven't played a competitive game since the Euro quals in 1995 (the Swiss topped the group and made it, the Swedish finished third and didn't --the Swiss won at home 4-2 and tied away 0-0).

 

Good non-PK. Score one for VAR.

 

And looks like a good PK. 2-2

 

Pemain Swiss, Blerim Dzemaili terpilih menjadi 'Man of The Match' di laga Swiss vs Kosta Rika, yang berakhir imbang dengan skor 2-2. @FIFAWorldCup #ElshintaSport #PestaBola pic.twitter.com/p6aSgQ5Enp

— Radio Elshinta (@RadioElshinta) June 27, 2018