Is there any chances that a non P5 conference team makes a run for the College Cup? have they been doing enough to challenge?
Yes. West Coast Conference is not P5. Santa Clara went Elite Eight last year. Strong class coming in this year with 2 strong transfers coming in from Idaho State and Washington so they could definitely make a College Cup run.
I agree that Santa Clara will make a solid run. Sanchez will be a star, and Hedge will also be very good. Their front line will be bolstered by having freshman F Julia Doyle as well. Only possible weakness might be the backline.
While WCC is considered a mid-major, it's a top conference in Women's Soccer. I don't believe it's behind Big 12 and Big 10 except by name and checkbook. BYU, Santa Clara, Pepperdine, LMU, Portland and San Diego is a pretty solid list of programs.
I agree with BYU, Santa Clara and Pepperdine. As for LMU, Michelle Myers has done a fantastic job turning that program around the last couple or so years. As for Portland, they are no longer a destination program for the YNT players and out recruited yearly by the likes of the 3 programs above. USD and the hiring of Lou Lieberman should turn that program around....but, it will take a few years to get her recruits in.
not a buyer on the WCC. They make NCAA runs vs. other west coasters and weaker east coasters but bow out vs good (south)east P5. They'll never match the Pac 12 and now the SEC and emerging Austin for the best recruits of the west (Cali).
I usually don't agree with your posts, but I agree with this one. On the West Coast the best players want to play for Pac12 schools sprinkled in with the WCC powerhouses BYU, Pepperdine and Santa Clara. Outside of those schools, the elite players will look at another P5 or Ivy league conferences.
I will chime in as well. I believe the Big East has the possibility of winning it all as shown by Georgetown's final four run last season. Georgetown, Marquette, St. John's and DePaul all have enough talent in 2017 in my opinion. I know I am biased but I believe the conference has a very deep, balanced conference. I believe that helps prepare the teams once the tournament comes. I think the P5 conferences benefit from the quality of the whole conference in preparing teams for the rigors of a run to the College Cup. I believe that is one of their biggest advantages over non P5 conferences which tend to have 1 or 2 strong teams but then the rest of their games are weak. With that in mind, I think the WCC, Big West, Big East & AAC also fit the profile of strong, deep conferences which could provide a non-P5 champion
You are more than biased. St.Johns and DePaul winning it all is ridiculous. DePaul and St. Johns are notorious for playing no one. They win a bunch of games against poor competition, get ousted in the 1st round of the NCAA. Stanford, Penn St and FSU have world class players. St. Johns has a couple of solid internationals mixed in with some decent hard-working americans. You are smoking something strong. The advantage the P5 conference have over mid-major is talent. The gap is getting bigger. Santa Clara has world class players. Georgetown had all-americans.
Full disclosure: I am not a Stanford fan. However, while Santa Clara admittedly did beat Stanford in the NCAA tournament last year, the statistics suggest that it was a very lopsided affair. Is Santa Clara really in the same class as the best schools in the P5 conferences? Santa Clara's keeper must have set a school record in this match with 14 saves! Santa Clara ((11-6-4)) at Stanford ((18-2-1)) Date: 11/18/2016 Result: L 1-0 Complete Stats: Box Score Santa Clara at Stanford (11/18/2016) Statistics Comparison Statistic STAN Santa Clara Goals 0 1 Assists 0 1 Shots 31 7 Shot Percentage 0.000 0.143 Shots On Goal 14 3 Shots On Goal Percentage 0.452 0.429 Saves 2 14 Corners 6 6 Yellow Cards 0 0 Red Cards 0 0
"Depth" of talent for sure. On any given day, a good, disciplined, well coached squad can compete with and occasionally beat a good P5 team (good meaning top 1/3 of the conference). That being said, DePaul will be very good this coming year and play a nice game of soccer. This year at least, they could compete well in the B1G, as could Georgetown compete in the ACC. I am sure that some of the top WCC teams could fare well in the PAC 12. I think making it to the final 16in the NCAAs would be considered successful for the smaller conference schools. Once there, any team can make a run, but when a team like UNC can sub in 9 players that would start on any one of these non-P5 squads, the odds are against them.
Having seen both St. John's and DePaul play against Georgetown last season, I will stand by my comments. Their talent levels are very similar and of a higher quality than you give them credit for. I do think sec123 comments about depth are correct and the mid-major teams are much more exposed to a key injury than the most of the P5 teams.
I believe that the schools that are able to sign up the best coaches will end up with the best teams. So, if the P5 schools are able to sign up the best coaches, they will have the best teams. If you will look at the non-P5 schools that had the very highest level teams, and who their coaches were, you will see this.
If Depaul wants to be taken seriously they need to strengthen their out of conf schedule. Their out of conference wins? The have 3 Top 100 non-conf wins in 3 years! Cincinnati (39), W Mich (80) and Ill St (32) 2016: #262 Army #281 Loyola 2015: #39 Cincinnati #249 E Mich #264 St. Francis #239 Army #80 W Mich #211 C Mich 2014: #207 C Mich #104 Nebraska #175 Towson #176 Loyola #32 Ill St Record since 2009 against Non-conf Top 50 3-9-1 Record since 2009 against Non-conf Top 25 0-4 Other than the "I saw them play and they are good" what about this screams National Title Contender?
With all due respect to cpthomas, I don't believe numbers always tell the full story and sometimes " I saw them play and they are good" is enough. The original premise of this thread was "Is there any chances that a non P5 conference team makes a run for the College Cup?" and I still believe there is a chance.
I would contest that "the numbers" tell a lot better story than someones opinion who's screen name is a billboard for the big east. DePaul or St. John's has zero chance of a final 4. Winning a game would be a big step for them. Their last 3 NCAA Tournaments? 2011: 1st round loss 5-1 ND. Outshot 21-8 2013: 1st round loss 1-0 Indiana. Outshot 13-2 2014: 1st round loss 2-0 Wisconsin. Outshot 13-8 So they are 0-3 in recent memory in the NCAA tourney. Out-scored 8-1. Outshot 47-18. Haven't even been to the NCAA tournament team in 2 years. Haven't beaten a non-conf top 25 team in as far back as I could find. And they are going to the Final 4? St. Johns is nearly identical. Georgetown has shown signs all along the way of a potential run.
Actually, granted that the evidence is limited, what the evidence seems to say is that the numbers will outperform the personal evaluations of most people, but that there will be some people who will do better than the numbers. The questions for those who say "I saw them play and they are good" are whether you have seen other teams play enough times over a long enough period to really know what "good at the highest level (College Cup level, in this case)" is and whether you have seen your team play enough high level teams to see how they do against that level of competition. I agree, however, that there is a chance that a non P5 conference team can make a run for the College Cup. I'm including the West Coast Conference teams as non P5 teams, because the WCC is not a P5 conference. And, if we consider that after the split of the Big East, neither the American nor the Big East conference is a Power 5 conference, it's clear that a non P5 conference's team can make a run for the College Cup since Georgetown just did it. On the other hand, of the teams that have made it to the College Cup over the last 10 years, Georgetown is the only one to get there that is not currently a member of a Power 5 conference (with Notre Dame now being a member of the Power 5 ACC). The last non-Power 5 team to get there was Portland in 2005, when they won the whole thing. So, it's reasonable to say that the chances of a non-Power 5 team making a run for the College Cup are pretty small.
But they did convincingly beat a top-25 conference team (4-1) that went on to the College Cup and before you say that was a 1 game aberration, they also tied them (1-1) in the Big East tournament with Georgetown only advancing on pks. Why are only non-conference games important in your mind?
Pretty small indeed. That's why I root for the minnows! I'll stand by my statement that making it to the round of 16 for a non P5 should be considered a significant accomplishment. Anything beyond that is a bonus. I'll also stand by my statement that actually watching a team play many times over the course of any given year can lead to 'opinions' that a team might be better than the numbers say they are. I won't go so far as to say that a team like the 2017 DePaul team will even make the NCAA tourney, but I can say with confidence that in 2016 they outplayed G'town twice and down the stretch (crushed them in DC late in the season and lost on penalties in the Big East Final) & were one of the best smaller conference teams in the country. Numbers be damned. Let's get this season going so we can argue some more!!!! First games in 5 weeks or so!
Agree with this point. I have seen a lot of soccer "at the highest level" and believe I am a pretty good judge of talent but this will always be subjective. I understand the skepticism of devad and the numbers and history suggest it unlikely one of the Big East teams I mentioned will make a College Cup run, but I stand by my "it's possible" comments. I hope the teams all stay healthy and can prove me correct. We will see.
X beat Y who beat Z, thus X is better than Z is the least statistically reliable form of comparison. When you only use a limited sample pool you can't realistically compare to a separate pool. It would be like saying this conference's champion went 9-0, this conference's champion went 9-0. Therefore these champions are similar. You'd need some form of reliable comparison between the 2 conferences. Long Beach St beat USC. USC won the national championship. Therefore LBSU could win the national championship. In 2015, Rutgers went to the final 4. They tied Purdue 0-0. Purdue went 4-6-1 in the Big 10. Would you say that Purdue was a final 4 team? The fact that you are ignoring hundreds of results to only focus on 1 is telling. You are a Big East homer. Nothing wrong with that. It is more than a stretch to say a team who hasn't been to the NCAA tournament in 2 years, hasn't won an NCAA tournament game in 10 years and hasn't beaten a decent team outside of their conference in forever is any real threat to a final 4.
I would say you are correct that numbers in small doses "don't always tell the full story." That is why your use of 3 results over a 10 year period is not relevant. Over time stats tell a very real story. Here are some facts: 1 mid-major in 10 years has made a Final 4. DePaul hasn't won an NCAA game in 10 years. Depaul hasn't beaten a top 25 non-conf team in 10 years. DePaul has a 3-9-1 record against top 50 non-conf teams. DePaul hasn't been to an NCAA tournament in 2 years. That outweighs "but they outplayed 1 good team."
I am not ignoring hundreds of games, I am simply commenting on teams which I saw personally and saying based on my personal opinion and experience, I believe they have enough talent to make a college cup run. I didn't say it was likely nor did I say past results suggest it. Again, the original question posed to the thread "Is there any chances that a non P5 conference team makes a run for the College Cup?" I was responding that I believe 4 teams from the Big East have enough talent in 2017 to have a "chance" You and cpthomas have brought up some interesting points though. Does recent history of a women's college team portend future results? Is there a correlation between seasonal results? I would think that anything that happened more than 3 seasons ago have no bearing at all on a current teams prospects. Given the turnover of players (~25% per season), I would think it is just as likely for teams to go from an NCAA tourny team to out of the tournament and vice versa.
Good discussion. Perhaps of interest, in trying to come up with pre-season ratings for teams in order to project an end-of-season tournament bracket, the study I did (which was based on the 2016 season) indicated that the best forecaster of next year's ratings is the team's average rating over a number of years. The number of years varies with the longevity of the head coach, i.e., the longer the coach has been there, the greater the number of prior years to average: for coaches who have been there 9 years or more, I use their average over the last 8 years; for coaches there from 4 to 8 years, I use their average over the last 6 years; and for coaches there 3 years or less, I use their average over the last 3 years. I came up with this after trying a lot of different approaches, as the approach producing ratings that come closest to the end-of-season ratings. And, one of the possible approaches I considered involved evaluations of graduated players, returning players, incoming players, and coaches (not my evaluations, but ones that I consider very good). According to what I did, the coach is the biggest factor, in other words player turnover is not as big a factor as one might think. When I look at teams that have had multiple appearances in the College Cup over the last 10 years: Florida State 6 appearances -- same coach entire time Stanford 6 appearances -- same coach entire time UNC 4 appearances -- same coach entire time UCLA 4 appearances -- same coach for first 3, current coach to some extent inherited from that coach Notre Dame 4 appearances -- same coach for all 4 Duke 2 appearances -- same coach for entire time Penn State 2 appearances -- same coach for entire time Virginia 2 appearances -- same coach for entire time USC 2 appearances -- two different coaches The other teams, with 1 appearance each, are Georgetown, West Virginia, Rutgers, Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Ohio State. The top list, of multiple appearance teams, comprises 80% of all College Cup participation over the 10 years. Who the coach is appears to me to be the most critical factor, by quite a bit.