P/I/P Game 33: L.A. Galaxy @ MNUFC, SUNDAY 10/21/18, 2pm PT

Discussion in 'LA Galaxy' started by L.A. Native, Oct 6, 2018.

  1. L.A. Native

    L.A. Native Member+

    Aug 1, 2013
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    [​IMG]

    TV: Spectrum SportsNet​
     
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  2. mbar

    mbar Member+

    Apr 30, 1999
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Still breathing.

    Barely.
     
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  3. WarGalaxy

    WarGalaxy Member+

    May 29, 2011
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    -VWC plays on the 17th home against SKC
    -RSL plays on the 18th home against NER
    -VWC plays on the 21st away against LAFC (2pm)
    -RSL plays on the 21st away against PDX (2pm)

    Vancouver and RSL both play simultaneously during this match. A draw actually doesn't kill us in this match, depending on how the other games on the 21st shake out, but it'd be nice to get all three points (to say the least).
     
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  4. TrickHog

    TrickHog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Oct 14, 2002
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    ESPN announced today that they will now be carrying this game as part of a MLS doubleheader.
     
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  5. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Yes a win would really boost our chances. Below are the latest sportsclubstats.com probabilities to make playoffs. They factor in the probabilities of the outcomes of all remaining games (both ours and our opponents).
    Overall they have us at 30% to be playing post-season . But if we win both of our remaining games that increases to 93%. If we only win one game we are 28-30%.

    TP W- D - L Prob
    51 2 - 0 - 0 92.8%
    49 1 - 1 - 0 29.9%
    48 1 - 0 - 1 27.8%
    47 0 - 2 - 0 5.8%
    46 0 - 1 - 1 Out
    45 0 - 0 - 2 Out
    Total Playoff Prob: 30.0%
     
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  6. 73Bruin

    73Bruin Member+

    Jul 12, 2008
    Torrance, California
    I don't disagree that those were the numbers posted, but I very much doubt that they take into consideration things like player suspensions or an adverse schedule.

    IMO, RSL will be fortunate to gain 3 points in their last 2 games. First they have Beckerman and Sunny suspended and two other players coming back off of international duty for the game Thursday 10/18 at home against the Revolution. They then have to travel to Portland and play the following Sunday on 2 days rest. Meanwhile New England still has a mathematical chance of making the playoffs and Portland is also trying to get into one of the top 2 spots. Portland is 10-2-4 at home and RSL is 3-10-3 on the road which would make Portland a 62% favorite to pull out a victory.
     
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  7. MPNumber9

    MPNumber9 Member+

    Oct 10, 2010
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah, RSL blowing their home game (which was unexpected, they've been great at home) was HUGE. Another bit of gossip:

    Apparently Rusnak was holding out for a new contract, to the extent that he didn't fly with the team to SKC (boarded a plane later once a deal was inked). He basically did what Penedo tried with us, but at an even more crucial point in the season. But with SKC caving to Rusnak, question remains if other players pull the same antics. This is exactly the reason we didn't cave to Penedo.
     
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  8. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    #8 skydog, Oct 9, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2018
    You have a point that "giving in" to Penedo might have proved problematic - not because of him but because of precedent. But in fairness the situation arose mainly because we (well Bruce) had treated Penedo pretty poorly all along. Or maybe it is fairer to say that Bruce just didn't seem to value him as much as his performances seemed to merit. He was consistently underpaid and couldn't get any assurances that he wouldn't be dropped in December - a tough time for keepers to find a starting position in most leagues. IIRC he wasn't asking for a lot - just a one year extension beyond the end of the season and for significantly less money than many of his later sucky replacements cost.
     
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  9. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Yep, the sportsclubstats probabilities don't take into account suspensions nor psychological factors in a game (for example - whether it's a 'must win' or a 'should win' game). They are just based on team strength (which is based on how they've done against the rest of the league this season), upcoming opponents strength and then the results of a few hundred thousand simulations of the season being played out. So we may have slightly better overall odds than stated.

    But note those probabilities don't expect RSL to win out either or else our prob of making the playoffs would be 0%. And it's not just RSL that we have to beat out - VAN is only 2 points behind us with a game in hand. We don't control our fate against either team. We need a trifecta: an RSL stumble, a VAN stumble and us finishing strong.
     
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  10. 73Bruin

    73Bruin Member+

    Jul 12, 2008
    Torrance, California
    I pretty much agree with this. My recollection (admittedly faded) was that Penedo was athletic as hell and great during the run of play but had problems with corner kicks and other set piece plays with players in the box. I also agree that the Galaxy were certainly worse off with Ricketts as a replacement.
     
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  11. Beep Boop Robot

    Mar 11, 2015
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    I still holdfast in my belief that we win the 2015 MLS Cup if we either keep Penedo, or start Rowe. The team as whole seemed way more confident when Ricketts wasn't in goal. Not to mention the 3 goals Ricketts gifted Seattle in the playoffs.
     
  12. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Yes Penedo had a couple weaknesses. In addition to his occasional struggle with a set piece he was small (for a keeper). And we were all frustrated with his somewhat weak and random goal kicks. But when you looked at the whole package he was a good keeper because of his agility, quick reflexes (#1 trait for a keeper imo), concentration and anticipation. If I were to grade him out I would call him a A-/B+ level keeper for MLS. We haven't had a keeper of that quality since.

    What we really need is another Hartman-in-his-prime level keeper.
     
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  13. WarGalaxy

    WarGalaxy Member+

    May 29, 2011
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Penedo's biggest weakness was poor representation. His agent had no idea what Penedo's value was in MLS until the Player Association released MLS player salaries. After that they tried to renegotiate, even though Penedo received a new contract just months prior in the off season.

    The sad part is that if Penedo was receiving the same salary as Ricketts was that year (and even what Dan Kennedy was the following year), he'd probably would have been content and played out his contract.
     
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  14. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    He actually would have worked for a lot less than Kennedy if we had offered him even a one year extension. He desperately wanted some job security. Our personnel changes in 2015 alone were astonishingly bad.
    We purposely did the following:
    Replaced Penedo with Ricketts,
    replaced Sarvas with Gerrard,
    replaced Ishizaki with Vayrynen.
    And of course it wasn't our choice for Landon to retire. But it was our choice to replace him with Gio and Buddle.
    :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:
    :thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown:
    :cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry:
     
  15. WarGalaxy

    WarGalaxy Member+

    May 29, 2011
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Why was job security suddenly paramount, for Penedo, in July; but wasn't in February when he was negotiating his new contract?
     
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  16. skydog

    skydog Member+

    Aug 1, 1999
    Durham, NC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
  17. L.A. Native

    L.A. Native Member+

    Aug 1, 2013
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
  18. The Cadaver

    The Cadaver It's very quiet here.

    Oct 24, 2000
    La Cañada, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, if we only had pro/rel the players would really care about these meaningless MLS games.....
     
  19. shelbo

    shelbo Member+

    Oct 16, 2007
    L.A.
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Damn, I was really looking forward to this game yesterday. Was pissed when I couldn't find it on ESPN or SpectrumSN! And no one was posting a stream, and no one seemed to be on BS to discuss, and . . . oh, wait. Next week? *sigh*
     
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  20. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Any news if Zlatan is going to play?
     
  21. TrickHog

    TrickHog Moderator
    Staff Member

    Oct 14, 2002
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Pretty sure he will. They said when it became necessary for him to play on turf that he would. And it is now necessary....
     
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  22. GalaxyOne

    GalaxyOne Member+

    Dec 6, 2005
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    One thing you can say about Penedo is he definitely made the best save of all time, not only for the Galaxy, but the MLS, and maybe the world. Anyone disagree with that? :)
     
  23. 73Bruin

    73Bruin Member+

    Jul 12, 2008
    Torrance, California
    Not sure which save in particular you are referring to, but there are certainly any number of saves out there that are as impressive as the Penedo saves in the Galaxy's thank you video.
     
  24. WarGalaxy

    WarGalaxy Member+

    May 29, 2011
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I really think it depends on the RSL result on Thursday.

    RSL Win = Zlatan starts
    RSL Tie = Zlatan in the 18
    RSL loss = Zlatan doesn’t make the trip

    I think this team, without Zlatan, can get a result in this match.

    I know it’s tempting to start him regardless because we could leap frog RSL depending on their result. However it’s been snowing in Minnesota, so that turf must be like concrete. If he plays close to 90 minutes he’s going to feel it in his knees for awhile.
     
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  25. Beep Boop Robot

    Mar 11, 2015
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
     
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