Pre-match: Oranje vs. Luxembourg WCQ

Discussion in 'The Netherlands' started by Brilliant Dutch, Jun 6, 2017.

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  1. Parel

    Parel Member

    Jun 16, 2010
    Club:
    NAC Breda
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    I got this part totally wrong of course. :( Say we lose in Paris and Sweden are held to a draw by Bulgaria. Then it's still completely out of our hands. Damn
     
  2. Clockwork_orange

    Clockwork_orange New Member

    Jun 15, 2014
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    We.cannot lose in Paris period.
     
    Brilliant Dutch repped this.
  3. bunbohue

    bunbohue Member

    Apr 5, 2005
    We made mistakes early in the qualification so now we have to take the hard road. We need to win the rest of the games in order to have a chance. A lot of positive but it is Luxembourg so we should not overestimate yet. Strootman's play is a concern for me. Now I just hope that we have a full strength squad for August games. We should play the rest of the games in Kuip stadium.
     
  4. 2nd_striker

    2nd_striker Member

    May 21, 2008
    London
    The sweden result scares me, but gives us hope of 1st place
     
  5. Nani_17

    Nani_17 Member+

    Nov 3, 2011
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    I understand the worry, but I don't think it should be all doom and gloom. You guys still have a game against Sweden, and it also seems to me that the Netherlands is starting to show some signs of getting their act together. Difficult road, but by no means is it over.
     
  6. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    And yet they will finish 2nd, and we will finish 3rd.

    This is highly embarrassing!!
     
  7. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    Are you kidding me????
     
  8. Laurent75

    Laurent75 Member

    Aug 2, 2014
    There's no way France will let Holland to win in Paris, especially after losing to Sweden. Plus I already have the feeling Robben won't play again.

    But Holland can definitely win the three other games, while Sweden is expected to lose points in Bulgaria and Belarus. They will play the two games away. We want them to have 3 points or less in the two games away against Bulgaria and Belarus, if they have more there will be no WC for the Netherlands.
     
  9. richsavare

    richsavare Member

    Jan 28, 2003
    New Jersey
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Hugo Lloris what was he up to?
     
  10. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    2nd straight tournament we wont be in!!! :(
     
  11. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    Would you please SHUT the F__CK UP!!! :mad:

    There's no way we're gonna qualify now!!
    It was already dicey if Sweden drew or won, but now everything has gone to hell and back!! :eek:
     
  12. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    @Orange14

    Sorry for being so rude, but right now I'm throwing EVERYTHING at my TV right now!

    Newspapers, remote controls, vitamin bottles, potato chip bags!!!!
    Everything has to go, dammit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  13. Laurent75

    Laurent75 Member

    Aug 2, 2014
    In August Holland will play in Paris and Sweden will play in Bulgaria.

    If Holland loses and Sweden wins, than there's probably 90 % chances that Holland won't finish second.
     
  14. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
  15. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    Yeah, good luck with that :rolleyes:
     
  16. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    Jeezus H. Titty Christ, Toivonen has to pop it in at 94th minute FFS!!!!!!!!

    Life is not fair!!!!!!!!!! :(
     
  17. SectionX

    SectionX Member

    May 27, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Sweden
    Sweden has not been lucky, if anyone watched our game in france our keeper gifted them one goal and they scored one offside goal.

    Lol people think we will lose points against lowly belarus or bulgaria who just lost to belarus.

    Holland is done for if you lose points against france
     
  18. Brilliant Dutch

    Brilliant Dutch BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 14, 2013
    Amsterdam, Holland
    Oh no, we are done for....... period!!
    No coming back from this one!!

    Maybe we don't deserve to be at the World Cup :(
    Not with this team!
     
  19. Parel

    Parel Member

    Jun 16, 2010
    Club:
    NAC Breda
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Ok guys so I've seen reactions ranging from a confident "we will beat France" to the feeling that our World Cup dreams are totally over. It's quite normal to have such varying views, especially among Holland supporters who are more emotionally invested in the team than neutrals would be.

    Anyway, I thought I'd have a look at the current betting odds for the next games on 31 August, for a more objective perspective on our chances now. I converted the betting odds to implied percentage odds for the games and came up with:

    France vs Netherlands
    France win 49.3%
    Draw 27.2%
    Netherlands win 23.5%

    Bulgaria vs Sweden
    Bulgaria win 21.7%
    Draw 26.9%
    Sweden win 51.4%

    Now to calculate the chance of our qualifying campaign being "on track" after the games on 31 August. I define "on track" as everything still being in our hands to finish at least second (i.e. Sweden have no more than a three-point lead). Using the above odds, I totalled the percentage chances of the various scenarios that would satisfy this criteria:

    Holland win 23.5%
    Holland draw and Sweden don't win 13.2%
    Holland lose and Sweden lose 10.7%

    Total 47.4%

    So a slightly less than 50% chance that after the France game we'll still be able to finish second if we win our last three games. By no means hopeless then.
     
    JC-14 repped this.
  20. At least you didnot include your jenever bottle, probably to keep it at hand to drink away the sorrow:D
    So Tricky Dickie has a major task at hand. If he manages to get us the 2nd spot I think alot of Dickie haters here should go to him and kiss his feet and grant him a statue:cool:
     
  21. Laurent75

    Laurent75 Member

    Aug 2, 2014
    #46 Laurent75, Jun 10, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2017
    Bulgaria - Sweden
    Belarus - Sweden
    Sweden - Luxembourg
    Netherlands - Sweden

    Sweden will take 3 points for sure against Luxembourg, no doubt. So even if we consider that we'll beat them last game, they'd still have 3 points more.

    We must hope they don't take more than three points in total against Sweden and Belarus. Basically if they take 4 points in these two games, it will be over for the Netherlands even if we win against Bulgaria, Belarus and them.

    I don't agree with the odds though, Sweden doesn't have 51,4 % to beat Bulgaria away. Sweden is a quite mediocre team and Bulgaria is still hoping for a second place

    I'd say it's 25 % for Bulgaria, 45 % for a draw and 30% for Sweden in that game.
     
  22. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    You need to switch from Jenever to a good small batch American bourbon. I don't know if you can get Booker's in Holland but it's my preferred bourbon!!!!
     
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  23. Parel

    Parel Member

    Jun 16, 2010
    Club:
    NAC Breda
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Yes, if the Netherlands lose in France then Sweden can't take more than 3 points from the Bulgaria and Belarus games. If the Netherlands manage a draw, then we can still catch up if they take 4 points.

    I'd also agree that the published odds for Sweden to win in Bulgaria seem a little high. But they've really been given wings by that last-minute gift from Lloris so I fear there might be some truth behind it.
     
  24. SectionX

    SectionX Member

    May 27, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Sweden
    Sweden mediocre team? Bulgaria is garbage and they have been that ever since stoichkov retired. If anything, sweden is playing better now with egosistical Ibrahimovic gone.

    Also remember that sweden won u21 gold in 2015 and have players from that team. But sure keep underrate us.
     
  25. Parel

    Parel Member

    Jun 16, 2010
    Club:
    NAC Breda
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    I feel your pain. It's bad enough that the goal fell totally against the run of play in the 94th minute, but the way it happened: what a joke!

    I'm still feeling slightly better than I was last night though. The odds analysis helped a bit - it's not as a hopeless as it feels. I'm sure Advocaat and the players are also really pissed off. I just hope they manage to channel their anger and pull off something special in Paris. Stranger things have happened.. remember Germany 1-5 England in 2001? Or France's dramatic choke in 1994 qualifying when they managed to lose to Israel and Bulgaria in their last two home matches (despite going ahead in both games), and miss out on qualifying by 1 point as a result.. That was also the second straight World Cup they missed out on. I personally couldn't imagine experiencing such a dramatic choke down the stretch as a Holland supporter. I'd probably stop watching football lol...
     
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