Official Red Devils EURO 2020 thread

Discussion in 'Belgium' started by Blondo, Oct 10, 2019.

  1. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    [​IMG]

    Belgium is the first and currently only side to reach the final event.
    The draw for the final tournament will be held on 30 November 2019, 18:00 CET.​
     
  2. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Travel distance (to reach Wembley's final 4)

    D 4,700 or 5,400
    F 5,600 or 6,400
    E 6,000 or 6,800
    B 6,300 or 10,600
    C 10,800 or 7,500
    A 12,100 or 17,500
    Show Spoiler
    A: 3100 Baku/Rome => London/Munich (5900) or Amsterdam/Baku (11300)
    B: 1150 Copenhagen/Saint Petersburg => Bilbao/Munich (4000) or Amsterdam/Baku (8300)
    C: 1800 Bucharest/Amsterdam => Budapest/Baku (7200) or London/Munich (3900)
    D: 550 Glasgow/London => Dublin/Rome (3600) or Copenhagen/Saint Petersburg (4300)
    E: 1150 Dublin/Bilbao => Glasgow/Rome (3700) or Copenhagen/Saint Petersburg (4500)
    F: 550 Budapest/Munich => Bucharest/Saint Petersburg (4500) or Dublin/Rome (5300)

    => worst case scenario = Group A runners-up + 2nd group game v. Italy:

    Brussels > 3664 > Baku > 3111 > Rome > 3111 > Baku > 3632 > Amsterdam > 3632 > Baku > 3975 > London
    That's 21,125 kilometers and Baku would be the default basecamp. The KBVB initially planned to make Brussels our basecamp but it's already insane to travel so much without returning to Brussels after every game.
     
  3. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Generally speaking, best to be drawn into groups B or E, especially compared to groups A and D as the latter two groups have a worse path in the KO rounds. Groups C and F are interesting to come top in but aren't that kind to the runners-up.

    How the final EURO 2020 draw looks now (of course November's results might cause a few changes):

    Group A:
    Italy
    Poland/Turkey/Croatia/France
    Czech Rep./Portugal/Switzerland/Austria/Slovakia
    Finland/Sweden

    Group B:
    Belgium
    Denmark
    Russia
    Finland/Sweden


    Group C:
    Netherlands
    Poland/Turkey/Croatia/France
    Czech Rep./Portugal/Switzerland/Austria/Slovakia
    League A or League D play-off winner

    Group D:
    England
    Poland/Turkey/Croatia/France
    Czech Rep./Portugal/Switzerland/Austria/Slovakia
    League C play-off winner

    Group E:
    Spain
    Poland/Turkey/Croatia/France
    Czech Rep./Portugal/Switzerland/Austria/Slovakia
    League B play-off winner

    Group F:
    Ukraine
    Germany
    Czech Rep./Portugal/Switzerland/Austria/Slovakia
    League A or League D play-off winner


    I'd rather avoid playing Russia again at the EUROs. I prefer Belgium to be in a group with two of France, Holland, Spain, Germany, England, Portugal, Croatia, ... (not Italy because it's the worst group to be drawn into) + the League D play-off winner. With a League D team in the group failing to advance to the KO stage should be impossible. Great games, already in the group stage, and better chances at a deep run.
     
  4. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Group B

    Belgium
    Russia
    Denmark
    Finland*

    UEFA separate Russia and Kosovo in bid to keep the peace => meaning the League D play-off winner cannot be drawn into Belgium's group (already have to go into this group because Russia and Ukraine must be kept apart). The other play-off paths will most likely contain hosts linked to other groups. Currently Finland and Hungary are in pot 4 but as Hungary are hosting as well Belgium's group for EURO 2020 is basically complete (*Czech Rep., Wales or Slovakia can still end up in pot 4 instead of Hungary).

    Both Russia and Denmark play their games against Belgium at home and a draw will decide if Belgium plays two group games in Russia or Denmark. Finland will play close to home at either venue and they're a fairytale in the making, a new Iceland.

    "I'd rather avoid playing Russia again at the EUROs" => nope
    "I prefer to be in a group with two of France, Holland, Spain, Germany, England, Portugal, Croatia, ..." => nope
    "plus the League D play-off winner" => nope, not a chance that we'll be joined by those guys

    = FML

    Facing Russia again (it will probably be a cagey affair unless the Russians need a win to advance), Denmark are quite decent, very much underrated (yet against this red-hot Belgium...) and Finland shamelessly parking the bus ... not what I wished for, not at all. Luckily Belgium have become very adept at unlocking ultra-defensive teams. Belgium should get through this group without much trouble yet these sort of ties don't exactly promise great football and the path ahead didn't get any easier, especially if you don't top this group.


    PS: Belgium's basecamp will be in Belgium. The FA won't view going back and forth to group B's venues as excessive travel. Still Belgium will have to travel well over 17 000kms to reach Wembley's final 4. That's only 4K fewer than the worst case scenario in all groups, i.e. 21,125 kilometers with Baku as the default basecamp. Winning group B would soften travel demands and those 17 000kms can even be halved if we besides winning the group play two succesive group games in one of the venues and stay there for both. Best case scenario, don't have the basecamp in Brussels and lower travel even further (= median for non-hosts).
     
  5. Ceres

    Ceres Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    Aarhus, Denmark
    Club:
    AGF Aarhus
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    With the present NT coach in charge, Denmark is now undefeated 3 years in a row, or in 33 games in a row ...
     
    Blondo repped this.
  6. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    For me Portugal was the only team stronger than Denmark from that pot (also according to Elo). As I said I feel Denmark are underrated although I have a suspicion we'll soon hear from Morten Olsen what's wrong with Danish football. Have seen enough of him in Belgian media but I guess it's unavoidable that he'll be asked again. How do you feel about Hareide getting the boot?

    Apropos, I hear we'll know if Russia or Denmark will be the host with 3 home games by Friday (when the play-off draw is held). If not then it's a short wait until the final draw on the 30th. Regarding who'll be our group's pot 4 team it's a coin flip between Wales and Finland. I'd rather have Wales. Granted they're better than Finland but there's a small score to settle from the previous Euros plus I prefer to face them in the group instead of the KO phase.
     
  7. Ceres

    Ceres Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    Aarhus, Denmark
    Club:
    AGF Aarhus
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    #7 Ceres, Nov 20, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2019
    I do not think it can be Wales. They are in the same seeding group as Denmark and Russia, and they were in the same Nations League group B that Denmark was promoted from to League A. So it must be a League C team that get the last spot.
     
  8. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    To seed the qualis the three of you were indeed pot 2 teams but for the final event this is how the pots look. With Belgium (pot 1), Russia (pot 2) and Denmark (pot 3) already in group B, only a pot 4 team needs to be added. Can't be the winner of play-off path D (contains Kosovo, prohibited clash with Russia) nor the winner of play-off path B (contains Ireland, a group E host assigned to that group). UEFA have yet to confirm but as the remaining two play-off paths also contain hosts they'd be linked to other groups. That only leaves us with two options (unless UEFA add another), i.e. the pot 4 teams not involved in play-offs: Wales and Finland.

    @Ceres what are your thoughts on Hareide (and him getting sacked)?
    It's useless to complain about an opponent opting for a pragmatic approach, so I won't, besides why add to what the Danish media has already written about Hareide. We simply have to play what's put in front of us.
     
  9. Ceres

    Ceres Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    Aarhus, Denmark
    Club:
    AGF Aarhus
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    #9 Ceres, Nov 20, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2019
    He wasn't exactly sacked, but did not get his contract extended, because the Danish FA were keen on getting the former FC Nordsjælland head coach Kasper Hjulmand, who is known for being brilliant at developing young players. In fact, FCN were fielding the youngest top-flight team in all of Europe last season.:

    https://football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/atlas/en/

    The style of play with Hareide has been a bit boring at times, but he surely know how not to lose a game, if a win do not seem possible for some reason, or if a draw is what is needed... and though Denmark finished 2nd in their group, they did beat Switzerland at home and secured a crazy 3-3 draw away that will not soon be forgotten.
     
    Blondo repped this.
  10. Ceres

    Ceres Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    Aarhus, Denmark
    Club:
    AGF Aarhus
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    But Kosovo could still be knocked out by N. Macedonia in the path D Semi-Finals.
     
  11. Ceres

    Ceres Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    Aarhus, Denmark
    Club:
    AGF Aarhus
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    Sorry, my mistake ... they seem to play the Semis at a later point in time, but I do not really trust UEFA and suspect that we are bound to get Finland, both due to their Nordic and Russian "ties" and because we faced Wales in the Nations League
     
  12. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    @Ceres ... UEFA confirmed the rumour I heard, i.e. the group B host with 3 home games will be drawn in roughly 11 hours from when I post this.

    'Denmark and Russia have both qualified for UEFA EURO 2020. As both are hosts (Copenhagen and Saint Petersburg) and paired together in Group B of the final tournament, a draw is required to determine which of the two will play three group stage games at home; the other host will play two group stage matches at home.'

    The draw procedure was published as well. This bit is also relevant for group B: 'The optional allocation of the future play-off winners shall not affect the 20 directly qualified teams. Therefore, Path D which is the only path without host must be paired with the path with the two hosts.' Meaning Wales and Finland can only be drawn into groups A and B, the four play-off winners going into the other four groups. As expected UEFA didn't add another option/Wales and Finland will be the only two options for group B. None of the 20 directly qualified teams, incl. Wales and Finland, will have to wait until the play-offs in March to know in which venues they'll play.
     
    Ceres repped this.
  13. Ceres

    Ceres Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    Aarhus, Denmark
    Club:
    AGF Aarhus
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    #13 Ceres, Nov 22, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2019
    As written before, I do not trust a highly corrupt UEFA to make any kind of non-bias "draw" ... Denmark will play at home against Russia ... obviously because (highly rich little) Denmark has never been a host before and Russia was the host of the WC-18
     
  14. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    And Belgium will play either Finland or Wales in Saint-Petersburg (and v. Russia as well of course). We've played there a few times lately, during Russia 2018 and last week our penultimate game of the qualis. Should feel comfy by now. If Finland is added to our group their fans won't have to travel very far.

    Now let's see what happens on the 30th.
     
  15. Ceres

    Ceres Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    Aarhus, Denmark
    Club:
    AGF Aarhus
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    ... and norway
    As a Scandinavian I can only attest to UEFA earning loads of money from Scandinavia and so we are always getting the "Royal" treat regarding both how they group the qualifying path in the Europa Cups and in these kind of draws (not to forget that the Euro-92 was also pretty much gift-wrapped for Denmark, because we did not really qualify for the tournament, though obviously you do need the quality to actually become Champion) ... Norway will also be the host Nation for their play-off final for the Euro-20, if they manage to qualify.

    I will be surprised if Finland do not end up in this group ... on the other hand, Denmark recently beat Wales both home and away in the Nations League group B, so perhaps UEFA may think that this will favor us to progress, which will be highly profitable for them.
     
  16. Ceres

    Ceres Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    Aarhus, Denmark
    Club:
    AGF Aarhus
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    .. and Finland it was ... no surprise there ...
     
  17. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    ;) ... I've been busy but I'm back to have a look at our group.

    The match schedule was a bigger uncertainty. Not ideal. Russia will be very cautious in our opener, especially after the last game we played there, and we won't play two successive games in Saint Petersburg. Hey-ho, having to play two hosts already was a disadvantage. A lousy schedule shouldn't matter either. Must advance from this group.

    Winning this group might come at a price. The 3rd placed team from the GoD, likely one of Germany, France or Portugal, could be the opponent in the Ro16. They can only face the group winners from B or C. It depends on which four 3rd placed teams advance (5 scenarios each in which they play either the winners from B or C). Similarly the 3rd placed team from our group could be linked to the winner of the GoD (or Spain's group, again 5 scenarios each way).

    Runners-up in our group have to travel to Amsterdam (Ro16), Baku for the quarters with the semis in London soon after. I'd rather avoid this path. Besides I'm betting the 3rd placed team from group D doesn't advance. As group B winners you'd then face either the 3rd placed team from A or E in Bilbao (4 scenarios for these outcomes) unless the 3rd placed team from group A also fails to advance to the KO phase (the sole scenario that puts a GoD team in front of you). The group B 3rd placed team would then face the winners from Spain's group in Glasgow (unless group A's 3rd placed team also fails... in that case it's a game against the GoD winner in the furnace that is Bucharest).
     
  18. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Reportedly in March we'll go to Qatar for a training camp, most likely with games against Croatia and Portugal.

    During the Euros our basecamp will be at home. The FA is also looking to replicate the conditions of Russia 2018. Roughly a week before our opener we'll travel to Saint Petersburg. After our second group game, against Denmark, we'll stay in Copenhagen and from there we'll return to Saint Petersburg for the final group game against Finland.
     

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