This. No doubt the FO is struggling with the same argument we are: Is Pablo's 3rd year a fluke or the year he turned the corner? There's no obvious answer either way. This season has been a success, but there are so many signs it could have been even more successful. Which is why I think the FO is doing a quiet search while waiting to see how Pablo handles the playoffs. My guess is if the team is one and done, he's out. BTW -one thing they could do is offer him a 1-year extension, or a multi-year contract with an out for the team if he doesn't measure up any time during the first year. If PM wants to be here he'd likely take it. Could backfire if he's thinking of moving on.
I don't think he wants to move on. Colorado is home. I think he will take what he gets whether it be a one year or a three year deal. His ego might be bruised, but I'm betting he would work harder to get a longer-term deal if the front office only offers him a one year deal. Kind of a messy situation. They give him a three year deal and trust him to build back the program. He does so in his third year, but his first two years are SO bad that it taints his very good season and the front office is gun-shy. Would the Rapids freak out if Pablo left? I don't think so. I think there are plenty of guys who could take over where Pablo left off with the team that the front office has built, including a few on staff as assistants now.
I think the problem is that there's no obvious indication that his coaching is the reason for the turn-around. You add in the variable of player talent, something that greatly increased this season, and it leaves people questioning if this was Pablo's doing or Pablo's luck.
Pablo getting some love as possible Coach of the Year by an MLS soccer.com writer. http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/10/20/stejskal-mastroeni-coach-year-dallas-react-diaz-injury
Have to say, I see similarities to the Gary Smith regime. Clearly the current team plays hard for Pablo. Of course, Pablo played hard for coach Smith, which probably rubbed off to other players then. He's the one constant.
Counter-argument, or maybe more of a devil's advocacy as I'm not sure how much this changes my mind: the D. There's still a game left, but the goals allowed have improved from 43 to 31 (in 33 games). They didn't add a lot of obvious defensive talent (obvious at the time, anyway: Williams, Miller, Azira) and lost the services of St. Ledger. Well, Howard is obvious. But they gave up fewer goals under MacMath, so the solid D started before Howard arrived. Also, fwiw, Pablo has consistently been able to get his offensive players to press.
I've always thought you gotta give coaches a minimum 3 yrs to see how its going to go. With Pablo not having coached before perhaps a few more. With the front office stepping up and providing quality players we see that Pablo has developed as a coach and will only get better with more experience. Go Rapids!
Now since Pablo just may end up add coach of the year, it is time to fire him!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Up until this season I'd have argued that Pablo was in over his head and should go. I'd also say that he was setup for failure in each of the seasons he's coached. I don't think this season was more than marginally better. I expected failure, yet it hasn't come. Why is that? Gashi, Howard, and Jones are all nice, but Gashi hasn't been a huge goal scorer, Howard has been great but the team was already succeeding without him, the same was true with Jones and since his injury. It's not as if the Rapids bought Pablo the lifeline he needed. Defense is something coaches can effect and it's been better, with the same guys he had in the past. The game philosophy may not appeal to neophytes, but the team plays hard, plays together and has earned it's results. That's a coaching thing. Give Pablo a player like Schelotto in his late prime and we would all call him a genius. It confuses me why we don't give credit when he pulls through without such a player. On the youth front... Badji still isn't - the excruciatingly wasteful - Deshorn Brown, but he has turned in some goals and seems to be on a steady improvement path. Marlon Hairston has changed games for the Rapids Both are young players that have risen under Pablo. The Rapids aren't blessed with a great youth core but there are actually a couple of bright spots.. I still have my doubts about Pablo. I still have greater doubts about Bravo. Week-in and week-out I don't see a strong reason to bet on the Rapids: not on talent anyway. Yet, here we are. I don't think the talent has dragged the coach out of the mire, but the coach has gotten the to rise out of it. They can be hard on the eye. They are what they are and they've had a pretty nice run in spite of it. I think the coach deserves an extension
Season-by-season; Asterisks indicate years we missed the playoffs: 1. 2016 - Mastroeni - 1.7059 2. 1999 - Mooch - 1.59375 3. 2010 - Smith - 1.5333 4. 2002 - Hankinson - 1.5 4. 2013 - Pareja - 1.5 6. 2011 - Smith - 1.4412 7. 1998 - Mooch - 1.4375 8. 2005 - Clavijo - 1.40625 9. 2004 - Hankinson - 1.367 10. 2009 - Smith - 1.3333* 11. 1997 - Mooch - 1.28125 11. 2006 - Clavijo - 1.28125 13. 2003 - Hankinson - 1.267 13. 2008 - Clavijo/Smith - 1.267* 15. 2000 - Mooch - 1.1875 16. 2007 - Clavijo - 1.167* 17. 2012 - Pareja - 1.08823* 17. 2015 - Mastroeni - 1.08823* 19. 1996 - Houghton/Wegerle - 1.03125* 20. 2014 - Mastroeni - 0.941* 21. 2001 - Hankinson - 0.923* All-Time Overall: 1. Smith - 104 Games - 1.43 2. Mooch - 128 Games - 1.41 3. Hankinson - 114 Games - 1.29 3. Pareja - 68 Games - 1.29 5. Mastroeni - 102 Games - 1.24 6. Clavijo - 114 Games - 1.18 7. Houghton - 31 Games - 1.06 8. Wegerle - 1 Game - 0.00 Playoff series records: 1. Smith 4-1 - .800 - Won MLS Cup 2. Clavijo - 2-2 - .500 3. Mastroeni - 0-0 - .500 4. Mooch 2-4 - .333 - MLS Cup appearance 5. Hankinson - 1-3 - .250 6. Pareja - 0-1 - .000 7. Houghton - Never qualified - N/A 7. Wegerle - Never qualified - N/A I decided to count series, not games, won or lost in the playoffs as the goal in any series is to advance, not to win any given game.
Pablo would need 51 points (give or take a point for rounding) if he comes back next season to to pass Hankinson/Pareja for 3rd in all-time pts/game average. Essentially he needs to tie our 4th best season all-time.
Sorry, Pablo, Mooch, and Smith are the best three we have had. Gross, Clavijo was fourth (a distant fourth, best). Lots of focus on the past two year with too much thin roster, but without Howard and Jones, look at our records....with them, we should be pretty good going forward. R
The amazing thing is that if Pablo gets a new contract and survives to game 27 next year he'll have coached more games for the Rapids than any other coach in team history.
I'd have to say, regardless of players on those rosters, Smith and Mooch are better coaches, not just successful. Now if the teams will the Cup this year, I'd have to say it moves PM above Mooch equal to Smith in terms of season success, but not better at coaching. Kinda captain obvious statement there as PM has zero experience 3 years ago and Smith/Mooch had experience (albeit it youth primarily for Smith) already.
That says something about the Rapids, really. I would much prefer that we have had a long term coach at some point.... Maybe PM is that guy, he continues to grow and we realize 5 years from now that he is the face of the organization as a coach *and* player. Or maybe not, hard to say give the RFO. rod.
Add the matches he played in or was at least on the squad for (injuries, discipline, Nats) and it might approach 50% overall? Florida team dispersal --> now (minus LA)?
Easily. There's really only 6.5 years out of 21 he wasn't a player or coach for the Rapids. 1996-2001 and the last half of the 2013 season. If my quick math is correct that means he's been around for 457 of Colorado's 662 regular season games. Game appearances + coaching he's at 327 (I don't know if the 225 player appearances on his Wikipedia page is regular season only or not).
By my count the Rapids have played 744 competitive matches (including the 2 playoff games they've got next week). I've got 4 CCL games and 13 USOC games I haven't found game lineups for yet but not including those 17 games Pablo has appeared or coached in 358 matches. He's been on the roster or coached for 514 of the 744 all-time competitive Rapids matches.
No, those I left out. If there's an easy way to get a list of those I'll add them (the only one I can think of is his USOC ban).
There was also that game against Dallas last year where we won by three or four goals while Pablo was suspended.
Amazing command of statistics ... or put another way he's been at more matches than Rapid Man. (And I live 5 hours away and have been to more than Stan Kroenke.)
Great work, as always! So there were 156 matches where Pablo was on the Rapids roster but didn't play? I didn't think he got that many suspensions...