PBP: NWSL Week 22 Discussion

Discussion in 'NWSL' started by Gilmoy, Aug 21, 2018.

  1. Gilmoy

    Gilmoy Member+

    Jun 14, 2005
    Pullman, Washington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    12' 0-0 Boureille dribbles in traffic to arc top mid-left, taps to Horan at 15m box left. Horan gets just-into box left, taps right outstep square across Skroski, plants to follow ball just as Skroski(-as-RB) lunges at where the ball was. Skroski ends up spearing Horan's centerline with her thigh/hip, flipping Horan over. Foul in the box, pk :eek:

    13' 1-0 Sinclair pk, right instep pass into back left low, Sheridan frozen without a twitch.

    17' 1-0 1h hydration/bad air break. Portland's AQI (PM2.5µ) was 152 = unhealthy as of 11:00 PDT this morning, so it must be still pretty icky.
     
  2. FawcettFan14

    FawcettFan14 Member+

    Mar 19, 2004
    Colorado
    I'm not convinced that was a penalty. Contact occurred right on the line of the penalty box. If I'm a referee, I err on the side of caution in that situation. Horan had a bunch of traffic between her and the goal when contact occurred; no direct goal scoring opportunity was stopped. Give a direct free kick from just outside the box, rather than an easily converted PK.

    Goes to show all the breaks are against Sky Blue this season. And once again that referees can get caught up in the atmosphere of Providence Park. How many soft/questionable penalties have we seen there over the years?

    That said, Sky Blue has punctured Portland's balloon at home a few times in the past. Maybe they can do so again.
     
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  3. Smallchief

    Smallchief Member+

    Oct 27, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    I agree that was a questionable penalty call. Ref, as you said, should have erred on the side of caution.

    The color commentator, I can't recall her name, really riding McCaskill for not attending to defensive details on a Portland offensive. I didn't see the incident on my screen. Also pointing out that there seems to be dissention among the Sky Blue players on the field, with Rodriguez and McCaskill not seeing eye to eye on something. Well, given Sky Blue's season you would expect some morale problems.

    Katie Johnson has been solid as a target forward, specially as she is always surrounded by Portland players and must operate in very close quarters.

    Keep it together Sky Blue. You deserve to win one.....but I doubt it will happen tonight.
     
  4. Gilmoy

    Gilmoy Member+

    Jun 14, 2005
    Pullman, Washington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    53' 1-0 Tiernan fouls Raso at arc top box right.

    54' 2-0 Heath fk at arc top box right, sent toward 5m 1/3 right. Everybody in the PNW knows it's going to Horan's head, she jumps for it -- ball misses just over her, continues across mouth past Sheridan frozen, bounces untouched into back left edge. Yes, you should always launch the fk directly on goal for exactly this reason. Sky Blue knew to go with Horan, but didn't have anybody left to play the no-touch lane.
     
  5. Gilmoy

    Gilmoy Member+

    Jun 14, 2005
    Pullman, Washington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    75' 2-0 McCaskill right ck, to 6-top 1/3 right. Tiernan front-cuts Purce from 10m left post so hard that she runs Purce into a self-pick off Horan's back at 6-top center, and front-cuts past Horan also. Lunging header over Franch's fingertips, off crossbar center, bounces down hard at 2m center, drops again at 6m 1/3 left and Purce volleys away.
     
  6. Gilmoy

    Gilmoy Member+

    Jun 14, 2005
    Pullman, Washington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    85' 2-1 Richardson serves from 32m mid-right to 8m 6-left for Dorsey trying to back-cut Carpenter through box top. Carpenter wins that race, heads down and away, bouncing slowly to 12m mid-left. Killion trails through arc top left, shoots left instep fast mini-lob across mouth past Franch, into back right edge 1/2 high. Her 1st goal in 2018!

    +8', for all those stoppages.
     
  7. Gilmoy

    Gilmoy Member+

    Jun 14, 2005
    Pullman, Washington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    FT 2-1. Portland clinches the playoffs!

    31 +3 games = 40 max: Chicago
    36 +2 games = 36 now: Portland (holds tiebreaker over Orlando)
    ========
    30 +2 games = 36 max: Orlando
    32 +1 game_ = 35 max: Utah

    Portland went +2=0-1 vs. Orlando this year, so they win the h2h series.
    Chicago, Orlando, and Utah are all playing for the 4th and final spot.
     
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  8. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    If Chicago don't mess it up (especially vs Orlando) I guess they should make it. I can't see Utah beating both Chicago and Orlando for that spot.
     
  9. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Utah's offense was anemic once again, but I guess it looked even worse because Haracic had an excellent game.

    If Washington looked unable to do anything, it was also because Utah has some Sauerbrunn in defense who basicallys stifled any dangerous action that could arise from Spirit: Royals look like a team whose defense is much better than offense (and this despite having added Christien Press to Amy Rodriguez). :coffee:
     
  10. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Observation from being a the Portland v NJNY game that might not have been apparent to those watching video: McCaskill looks like the real captain of this team. She's constantly trying to pep up her teammates, seems very confident in that respect.

    I also observed that she and Carly always were looking for each other on the field. Each one's first outlet was to the other. I think, both playing very well, but with a weak supporting cast. Except that Frisbie had a good game playing center back, but as to her I'm prejudiced in her favor.
     
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  11. FawcettFan14

    FawcettFan14 Member+

    Mar 19, 2004
    Colorado
    Funny you should say that. The color commentator was ragging on McCaskill for a) not tracking back on defense, and b) her negative body language.
     
  12. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I wasn't noticing whether she was tracking back on defense, so I don't know about that. She seems to have a natural slouch that may look to some like negative body language, but I don't think it is.
     
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  13. MiLLeNNiuM

    MiLLeNNiuM Member+

    Aug 28, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Interesting observation.
    What about my girl Rocky Rodriguez? How did she look live?
     
  14. hocbz

    hocbz Member

    Feb 15, 2016
    SkyBlue is definitely a better team than Washington, even if the results would lead you to believe otherwise.

    Utah was good last night. Totally different team with O'Hara as well. Press was excellent on the wing but if they can somehow move her to the middle and have O'hara play wing instead, they are absolutely contenders. Possibly too late in the season now, unfortunately, but still possible.
     
  15. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    #40 SiberianThunderT, Aug 23, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2018
    Technically speaking, Houston is still alive for the 4th spot as well, with max points of 35. If you assume they don't get the full 6pts still available to them, (e.g. don't beat NC in the last game of the season,) then yes they are eliminated, but it's not mathematically certain yet since they can advance with a fair amount of help, particularly with teams chipping away at Chicago.

    If Houston wins both games, then they'd have a GD of at least -2 and have the tiebreak over Orlando but not Chicago or Utah - but the GD doesn't matter. To finish below Houston, you just have to say Orlando don't win both of their games, Utah doesn't win their last one, and Chicago gets at most 3 of the remaining 9pts available. Those three teams have the following remaining games: ORL-CHI, CHI-NJ, NJ-ORL, and UTA-CHI. In the worst-case scenario where NJ doesn't help HOU at all and loses to CHI and ORL, then HOU is eliminated no matter what since CHI would have to lose at least one of the other two, but that would push ORL and/or UTA over HOU. (HOU is also eliminated if CHI beats ORL, because then the UTA-CHI result will guarantee one of them advances over HOU.) However, if NJ snags at least one point, you can get scenarios where HOU advances, e.g. ORL=CHI, CHI=NJ, NJ<ORL, CHI=UTA /or/ ORL>CHI, CHI=NJ, NJ=ORL, CHI=UTA.

    Still quite a long shot, since it assumes HOU beats NC and NJ while NJ doesn't go 0-3 and other things, but if you're putting up a table of max possible points and remaining games, HOU is *technically* still in it too.
     
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  16. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    ....now that I just did the things HOU need to go right to qualify, I wanna look at the other teams, which should be simpler.

    Of note, irrespective of the upcoming games, Orlando hold the h2h over Chicago and Utah separately, which also gives them the tiebreak in the weird case of a three-way tie on 33pts, and Chicago holds the direct h2h over Utah.

    Utah : If CHI earns no more than 3pts and ORL earn no more than 4pts in each team's other two matches, then UTA can advance with a win on their last day. Anything else, and they're eliminated.

    Orlando: Eliminated if they lose to CHI. Also eliminated if they draw both remaining games. Even four points isn't great for them, since then either UTA>CHI eliminates them or CHI gets enough points from the last 6pts available. Not guaranteed to advance with two wins, but will advance with two wins PLUS any other CHI stumble.

    Chicago: Controls their fate, as 5 or more of the last 9pts gets them qualified. 4pts is messy. 3pts gets them eliminated unless it's 3 draws (and HOU doesn't make a run) or it's UTA<CHI + NJ>ORL.
     
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  17. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    #42 SiberianThunderT, Aug 23, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2018
    ....shit, I just realized it's possible to have a FOUR-way tie on 33pts. This, in theory, gives HOU another slight breath at life. They do hold the direct h2h over Orlando, which could in theory make the four-team table hard to decipher. That said, SportsClubStats says HOU is definitely eliminated if they get just 4pts from their remaining games, and since there's a small enough number of games left that I think SCS's 10mil simulations cover everything. X-D

    But just to make it explicit, here's what each team's regular season record would be just against the other three teams to get everyone on 33pts:

    CHI - 3W,3D,3L - 12pts
    HOU - 2W,3D,4L - 9pts
    ORL - 5W,2D,2L - 17pts
    UTA - 2W,4D,3L - 10pts

    So adding HOU into the 33pt tie doesn't change anything, even if they introduce a direct h2h that ORL doesn't win - ORL still comes out on top in this theoretical case. (In fact, there's another theoretical three-way tie on 33pts between HOU/CHI/UTA with NJ kicking ORL out, but HOU loses the h2h against both CHI and UTA individually anyway, so they lose that three-way table too, with Chicago advancing.)
     
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  18. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    One thing we haven't mentioned in the past few weeks is the interesting issue of home field advantage (or lack thereof) this season. If we ignore any games that include NC, DC, or NJ, the "competitive" games to consider this past month are:
    Code:
    8/5/18    8:30 PM    Dash       1-2   Royals
    8/11/18   3:30 PM    Royals     0-1   Reign
    8/11/18   7:30 PM    Pride      0-2   Thorns
    8/15/18   10:30 PM   Reign      0-0   Stars
    8/18/18   3:30 PM    Thorns     2-2   Stars
    8/21/18   10:30 PM   Reign      2-0   Dash
    That's 1W-2D-3L for home teams in August so far. X-D Gonna be interesting to see how the Pride-Stars match falls out.

    Interestingly, the record for games that involve the three "uncompeititve" teams is 6W-3D-2L from a home perspective, which very much looks like these games have HFA important, but it's worth pointing out that NC had just one away game so far in August (draw) while the Spirit had just one (of four) games at home.
     
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  19. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here are some data to supplement what you've provided. These are based on data from the current season:

    upload_2018-8-25_11-42-26.png
     
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  20. Gilmoy

    Gilmoy Member+

    Jun 14, 2005
    Pullman, Washington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #45 Gilmoy, Aug 25, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2018
    [SEA-NC] 4-3-3 for 4-2-3-1; Addo for Kawasumi; McNabb for Long; Catley for Westphal

    O'Sullivan for Hinkle (and Dunn => LB).

    Seattle: Q nil / Long Yanez / SEI Averbuch Dallstream
    North Carolina: Q nil / INTL Jenkins / OUT Hinkle King / SEI Kawamura

    Poor air quality today again: AirNow for WA says Seattle-Bellevue-Kent Valley had an AQI (2.5µ particulates) of 153 = unhealthy period, as of 12:00 noon.
     
  21. MiLLeNNiuM

    MiLLeNNiuM Member+

    Aug 28, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #46 MiLLeNNiuM, Aug 25, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2018
    I don't know which match to watch?

    Seattle vs Courage
    or
    Penn State vs UCLA

    EDIT: I'll have to watch both. :D
     
  22. Gilmoy

    Gilmoy Member+

    Jun 14, 2005
    Pullman, Washington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    14' 0-0 Hinkle hoofs from midfield wide left to arc top, McDonald poaches at box top mid-right, follows to 14m right post and shoots right foot near post hard. Ld.Williams knocks ball down trickling toward goalline center, Nielsen clears.

    27' 0-0 Mathias crosses from circle top wide right to 6-top left post, McDonald stoop-heads to 1/3 left face-high, Ld.Williams blocks it rightward and falls upon it.

    32' 0-0 1h 2nd break.
     
  23. BlueCrimson

    BlueCrimson Member+

    North Carolina Courage
    United States
    Nov 21, 2012
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This game is definitely showing why North Carolina and Seattle are the two best teams in the league this year. Fun game so far.
     
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  24. Blaze20

    Blaze20 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Seattle Reign FC
    Sep 22, 2009
    Club:
    Philadelphia Independence
    Game is a bit unsettled though. It seems Memorial Pitch gets terrible every week. That being said I'll like to see these two teams in the final though.

    Williams have been outstanding in the last month or so. Definitely the team MVP
     
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  25. Gilmoy

    Gilmoy Member+

    Jun 14, 2005
    Pullman, Washington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    HT 0-0. Ld.Williams has been busy :eek:

    Seattle 4(1)-(6)14 shots(sog), 4-2 corners, 6-14 crosses, 47%-53% possession.
    1-1 offside, 7-7 fouls.

    NWSL saves are equal to the other team's shots on goal. (I infer that a "shot blocked" isn't a "shot on goal".)

    23' 0-0 Yellow card on McDonald.
    45+3' (of +4') 0-0 Yellow card on O'Sullivan.
     
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