Not you again - 2019 UK general election thread.

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Naughtius Maximus, Oct 31, 2019.

  1. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
  2. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    Polls still all over the place, showing anything from a 6% to 14% Tory lead.
    YouGov's latest MRP polling has a 28 seat Tory majority, down from over 60 just over a week ago, with the majority of polling taken before Johnson's disastorous Monday. The father of the man killed at the London Bridge incident has also just accused Johnson of lying about having been in contact with him. There's a reason they try to hide him from any form of public scrutiny.
     
  3. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    Hiding in a fridge to avoid journalists. A hung parliament with nobody able to form a government would be a Tory nightmare. A fresh election would follow, meaning having to stage manage Johnson for another couple of months.
     
  4. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Even the BBC has gone full muppet now...

    1204156328815579137 is not a valid tweet id


    As an old timer this seems particularly sad :(

    We're in a situation where 60% of people will vote for people opposed to the tories and their hard brexit and yet we still end up with them as our government.
     
  5. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So how does nationalizing sausages help fight climate change?


    :whistling:
     
  6. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    I'm gonna guess it doesn't.

    It just shows the stupidity of the coverage this time around. The tories keep getting away with 'labour's financial crash' and the meeja, who are meant to be independent, never challenge it.
     
  7. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Why challenge it, when you can form your own opinion (in the media).

    Just because the Tories (Johnson) are full of shit, it does not mean that Labor is not full of shit.

    You could argue that there is less shit coming from labor.

    Just because the media goes #bothsidesdoit it does not mean they do it the same amount.

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/12/07/truth-has-been-the-first-casualty-of-britains-election
     
  8. Walia Ibex

    Walia Ibex Red Card

    Arsenal
    Ethiopia
    Oct 2, 2019
    I'm sorry but let's not pretend the main alternative to the Tories Jeremy Corbyn is anything to write home about. The Tories are only ahead because Corbyn is a disaster. Labour has given those who think Boris is a buffoon no real choice because Corbyn is not a credible choice. He is a protest politician now asked to be a leader and he is certainly not one. He is an unlikable charlatan. Hopefully after this beating they get he can be ousted and return to the backbench.
     
  9. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Any updates?
     
  10. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not until the polls close, I believe. In looking at the Guardian's home page, the Tories are sending out emails saying Labour turnout is high and imploring their members to get out and vote as well.
     
  11. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    There's quite a bit of chatter that Johnson's seat is going to be close.
    He's spent the evening campaigning there, for what it's worth.
     
  12. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So.. What happens if Johnson loses his seat, but the Tories get the majority?
     
  13. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But yeah.. From what I'm seeing in the "prediction" front is that the Tories are going to be making big gains the Labour Leave areas, while Labour is going to be making big gains in the Conservative Remain areas. A political re-alignment in which parties represent which areas, but possibly with very little change in the actual seat counts.
     
  14. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    You don't have to be an MP to be Prime Minister, but it wouldn't be a good look.
    More likely someone in a safe London seat gets bumped up to the Lords and Johnson wins that by-election in a few months. Raab (if he survives) would act as PM in the meantime.

    It would be the most high profile loss since 1906, when Balfour (and almost all of his cabinet) were dumped.
     
  15. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    Yeah, I'm not sure that the exit poll will be the best guide with the amount of tactical voting. I'd also think that Labour may see some big gains in city seats which they already hold, and the Tories likewise in shire seats.
     
  16. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    I still have very little hope that we're seeing anything but a Tory government.
     
  17. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah.. I think at this point the only question is whether it will be a majority government, or another minority government, with the odds leading to a clear majority. If it is a clear majority, the only question is if it will be a No Deal brexit, or an approval of the Johnson negotiated deal. With the purge of the Conservative party that happened of those opposed to Brexit (or no deal), the likelihood of any defectors to oppose the UK leaving the EU under Conservative terms is highly unlikely.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  18. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    If the UK has another hung parliament, I have no idea what happens.
     
  19. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    If the Tories are just short (over 300), then it's anyone's guess - probably a rerun in the new year.
    If somehow Labour get to 280+ then with 40+ SNP you've got a clear second referendum path.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  20. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That may be the best case scenario though....
     
  21. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    Do the Democratic Unionists join the Tories again in a coalition even though Johnson was willing to burn them?
     
  22. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    Depends how big the bribe is, but they're as opposed to his Brexit deal as they are to Corbyn. They're also expected to lose a few seats. Any SDLP gains in Northern Ireland are effectively Labour gains.
     
  23. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's the only reason there would be a hung parliament. Tory losses will have to be greater than the number of DUP seats (and they may actually lose seats), or it'll be a CON/DUP minority government if the Tories don't get a clear majority. I've also seen comments from DUP that they will never back a Corbyn led government, so the odds of them holding out and allowing Labour to build a minority government are next to zero.
     
  24. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002


    Not good
     
  25. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So if Labour loses, as expected, will Jeremy be out of the leadership?
     

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