Not you again - 2019 UK general election thread.

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Naughtius Maximus, Oct 31, 2019.

  1. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    What's that?
     
  2. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The possibility that Corbyn will be PM.
     
  3. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The decision to not challenge the Tories also drove a number of Brexiters away from the Brexit party.
     
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  4. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    I honestly don't know. Based on current polling it doesn't look like it but, as guys like Curtice has said, the tories have 'squeezed' all of the available votes out of the brexit party whereas there is still some votes available from LibDems in the the marginal seats.

    That's why I pointed out the SNP had got almost twice the percentage of seats than their vote percentage would indicate, despite us having a FPTP electoral system which would normally mean the opposite.

    I was discussing this with a friend of mine today and we both felt that we'd do better not to stand people in the areas where the LibDems have a chance of defeating the tories. As it is we're not really campaigning in a lot of places, (at least, not to speak of), so maybe that will be enough?

    We'll see!
     
  5. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Karo Viertel
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    The thing about the Brexit party is it isn't a proper democratic institution run by its members unlike the other major parties

    It basically is just a vehicle for Farage where he has absolute power and leadership authority and can't be challenged on any decision. So basically a scam and he sold them all out yet again.
     
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  6. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    This is a bit old (end of November) they have Conservatives with a 68 seat majority.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...for-68-seat-majority-according-to-yougov-poll

    This one has them at a 28 seat majority.

    upload_2019-12-5_11-41-11.png

    upload_2019-12-5_11-41-27.png

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html


    They do give labor a 20% chance of getting a majority.

    Those are better odds than what Trump got before he won.
     
  7. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    More bad news for the UK (unless you are a conservative).

     
  8. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    There's two things that can't really be factored into the polls - the amount of tactical voting (which appears to be significantly higher than pervious elections) and the 3m+ new registrations.
    Local Lib Dems have been saying for a few weeks now that Raab (23k majority, but 58% remain) is in play, and also think Gove is vulnerable (which I find harder to believe).
    I've seen comments that Johnson has also changed plans to include some campaigning in Uxbridge, which would indicate some level of concern.
     
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  9. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    By vehicle, do you not mean "cash cow"?
     
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  10. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    So pretty much where Charles Kennedy had the Lib Dems before the Orange Bookers took over?
     
  11. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    I saw prof. Curtice on the TV the other day and he was saying that if we got to within 7% of the tories they needed to start worrying.

    https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/to...ed-remain-vote-will-decide-election-1-6407100

    "If the lead is indeed around 10 points he is not so far ahead from where he needs to be to get a majority for us to be sure that he has got it in the bag. Again we just do have to remember that this is essentially a binary election in which either Boris Johnson gets a majority in which case Brexit should happen or he fails to get a majority."

    We'll lose seats but the LibDems and SNP could make up the difference.
     
  12. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The post mortem analysis of this election are going to be interesting, to say the least. How Labour managed to completely f*** up an election that should be easily winnable will be dissertations and reference cases for ages.
     
  13. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They will blame Corbyn.


    Nah, they will just blame they will blame Corbyn.
     
  14. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As they should.... How one could squander the crapshow that was the start of this year so badly is simply amazing.....
     
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  15. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Actually, I think they'll blame the meeja for being unfair to Corbyn.
     
  16. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Honestly he deserves a large share of it though. What a clusterf***
     
  17. Walia Ibex

    Walia Ibex Member

    Arsenal
    Ethiopia
    Oct 2, 2019
    Thanks for the Lib Dem update! When I was living in London in the mid 2000s The Lib Dems with Kennedy anti-Iraq war wing and going left of NL and Blair was refreshing too bad they veered back to the right. I still think they could've had a middle ground between Corbyn and Boris but they have surrendered that to be Tory Lite I guess. I don't know who are there natural voting base? would be I'm guessing Middle class managers, accountants, urbane, educated, maybe a base in london or west of England?. I would think Collge towns as well but I guess not anymore after the tuition rate increases they supported and lied about lol
     
  18. Walia Ibex

    Walia Ibex Member

    Arsenal
    Ethiopia
    Oct 2, 2019
    And in return what does Farage and the Brexit party get from this arrangement? Ministerial posts, ambassadorships, leading the Brexit negotiations, money under the table, next ruler of Gibraltar.....
     
  19. Walia Ibex

    Walia Ibex Member

    Arsenal
    Ethiopia
    Oct 2, 2019
    I will go conservative pardon the pun and say the Tories pick up 15-17 seats overall.

    332-334 Tories
    Labour imo will drop prehaps by 20 242.

    Tories get 42-43%
    Labour 36-37%
     
  20. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Karo Viertel
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Very little IMO

    The party has collapsed already. Be interesting if their funding was pulled. Never entirely clear where that big flood of £ came from
     
  21. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm in favor of confidence intervals but to paraphrase Guy of Gisburne, "Why the two-seat margin, cousin?"
     
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  22. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Karo Viertel
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Lol

    Full 80s flashback
     
  23. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    In the context of brexit it's only 'easily winnable' in the minds of people that don't understand the political history of the UK...

    https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ed-wall-brexit-progressive-industrial-england
    https://www.theguardian.com/comment...r-divided-family-together-brexitland-remainia

    Brexit makes the divide in the political coalition that is 'the left' all the more obvious.

    That's why this stuff about 'Labour should have come out against accepting the brexit result right from the start' was always going to be problematic. It's also why even the LibDems didn't go that route and said they DID accept it.

    It's also important to remember that the only reason we're in the current situation, (apart from the pig-feckers idiotic decision to hold the bloody referendum in the first place), is because of Swinson's equally moronic call to say she couldn't accept a labour-led coalition, even for a few weeks, to get a 2nd referendum underway.

    Voting for Corbyn was always going to be a high risk strategy, (although whether it was more high risk than the choice of a British version of Hillary Clinton is an interesting question), but once we'd done that and he'd, (completely unexpectedly), turned it around in 2017, the current position was always likely to occur with the LibDems hatred of the left distorting their better judgement of the interests of the country.

    Actually, the comparison to the US is quite telling. The lack of a viable 3rd party candidate for potus means people generally end up voting for one of 2 main parties but, obviously, with our parliamentary democracy, we're in a different situation. The closest analogy to us is the electoral college which, again, threw a spanner in the works for you.

    Anyway, we'll see what happens.
     
  24. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Hasn't Banks and the rest of them already pulled their funding?

    They're not a 'real party' anyway, are they.
     
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  25. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
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