Not you again - 2019 UK general election thread.

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Naughtius Maximus, Oct 31, 2019.

  1. Walia Ibex

    Walia Ibex Red Card

    Arsenal
    Ethiopia
    Oct 2, 2019
    If he wins a majority for the conservatives that will be good enough to be deemed a success.
     
  2. Walia Ibex

    Walia Ibex Red Card

    Arsenal
    Ethiopia
    Oct 2, 2019
    Oh I don't disagree but politics especially electioneering is theater and he is a better showman than the rest. Clegg and the Lib Dems were the vessels for "good policy and were going to deliver" in 2010 only to completley back on their word so pragmatism is a good quality for any leader. Politics is more about identity and tribalism now than it is about issues or ideology.
     
  3. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No, no, no...no, no.

    No.

    No.

    No.

    No.

    Politics is about the redistribution of public resources to maximize the benefits of those resources for the winning coalition. It is only about theater when the public, having ceded their responsibilities, demand theater. To paraphrase a great quote, "Politicians don't take a dump without their voters saying so."
     
  4. Walia Ibex

    Walia Ibex Red Card

    Arsenal
    Ethiopia
    Oct 2, 2019
    I respectfully disagree. I think your statement is more accurate when parties and leaders start to govern and implement said policies. But the act of campaigning and electioneering is much different. Back to the election other than Brexit and the UK relationship with the EU I wonder what other issues are front and center Healthcare and the NHS, Education or just bread and butter issues.
     
  5. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Your respectful disagreement is borne out by what, precisely?
     
  6. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Wow - great media strategy from Corbyn there

    Given an open goal to put the issue to bed he .... shits the bed
     
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  7. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How does he not handle the taxes question???

    Labour deserve better.
     
  8. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    He should have just pulled out, as Johnson appears to have done.
     
  9. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    Big YouGov polling out tonight using the constituency model that was the most accurate last time, including having Canterbury going to Labour.
    Some claims on Twitter that it shows the Tories having gained on 2017, but trending towards a hung parliament.
     
  10. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
  11. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Is not looking good for the left.

     
  12. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
  13. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
  14. Walia Ibex

    Walia Ibex Red Card

    Arsenal
    Ethiopia
    Oct 2, 2019
    A very undramatic GE maybe 2005 was as boring just because the result is so predictable. A conservative healthy margin of victory and most likely a majority. If Labour and Corbyn weren't inept they could take advantage over this Brexit disaster. But with the Anti-Semitism row and Corbyn disastrous messaging and campaign it's a slam dunk for the Tories. And yes I know the British media is right-wing and biased but these are unforced errors by Labour.

    Labour Brexit policy is also confusing. Why not just take a stance like the Lib dems and go all in with Remain. But to vacillate just shows inconsistency and weakness.

    Prediction Tories by 7-10 points with a majority.
     
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  15. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For bonus points, predict seat share! Mine is a few pages back (or on the other thread). Be fun to see who gets closer.
     
  16. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So it looks like Brexit and the Lib Dems will go back to being irrelevant (sad face for the Libs).

    It is looking like the good old 2 horse race again.

    The conservatives doing a great job at corralling the vote of people that want to leave the EU.

    That seems to be what will give them the W.


    upload_2019-12-4_10-54-22.png

    https://www.ft.com/content/263615ca-d873-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
     
  17. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    It won't be as simple as that because of tactical voting in specific constituencies. That's how the SNP got 8.6% of the seats with only 4.7% of the votes, (in a FPTP election), back in 2015.

    The LibDems won't be able to do that, obviously, but if they can improve their showing in the seats we're not contesting, (with our rearguard action), it could change the result quite markedly

    The only thing I'm not clear about is what proportion of the new 'yoof' registration, (about 2.5m IIRC), is included in the polls. My guess is it's quite low but we'll see.
     
  18. Walia Ibex

    Walia Ibex Red Card

    Arsenal
    Ethiopia
    Oct 2, 2019
    Wasn't the 2017 GE a reversion back to the two party system. I believe the conservative's got 42% and Labour 40%. The reason why Brexit or UKIP 2.0 is failing is because their voters finally realize they are hurting their own cause by not voting Tory and are voting strategically so they are coming home.

    The Lib Dems are disspointing because now they finally have a true voice a clear alternative to both blue and red and are the party of Remain and a 2nd referendum. But Clegg and his Orange book brigade really tarnished and mortally wounded the Lib Dems as a viable 3rd party by getting into the Cameron coalition, lying and going back on their promises and moving the party to the center. If they had stuck to their anti-Iraq war, internationalist, pro-EU, progressive on education and socially liberal philosophy they could have survived. But they didnt so now they are paying the price.
     
  19. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    Swinson was PPS to Nick Clegg, and most certainly from the same wing of the party as Clegg and Laws. There's no Charles Kennedy types in the parliamentry party, and the Labour party isn't on Blair's line so they can be outflanked from the left as Kennedy managed. They've positioned themselves as a sane version of the Tory party, as Johnson has lurched further right, with an economic policy that's to the right of anything Clegg proposed.
    Swinson's revoke A50 policy in reaction to Labour's 2nd referendum commitment was the dumbest political move since the Iraq war.
     
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  20. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    So glad Boris is shining a light on the incompetent Corbyn government which released all the terrorists
     
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  21. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    This is not right

    The brexit party made a pact with the Tories not to run in 100s of Tory seats

    So the polling has collapsed because you cant actually vote brexit party in noat of the seats where their voters reside
     
  22. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    The abandonment of the economic centre has really left this ground wide open and it is where Labour should have bee. Sensible economy and reform/value in public services.

    IMO the real problem is Swinson lacks any political charm. Completely uninspiring, politically clueless.

    A Jacinda would have cleaned house.
     
  23. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Indeed!

    The prevailing gag about the LibDems and their 'revoke' nonsense is that they're now neither 'liberal' nor 'democratic'.
     
  24. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    ... and it's where we might have been under the Blairite alternatives that ran as alternatives to Corbyn. The problem is that conterfactual ignores the possibility that whether that would have led to any more success than it did with Miliband is FAR obvious.

    Miliband's father fought in WWII and was still attacked for 'hating Britain' and who can forget 'bacon sandwich-gate'.

    Like this guys says...

     
  25. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That probability is very very low correct?
     

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