Next Ballon d'Or winner that isn't CR7 or LM10 (and when)?

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by BocaFan, Jan 19, 2015.

  1. Skandal!!!

    Skandal!!! Member

    Legia Warszawa
    Poland
    Apr 26, 2017
    Mbappe probably too young yet... Hope money won't spoil him, like so many young talents before him. If he manages to resist temptations, and concentrates on the game, he surely looks like a future prospect.
     
  2. leadleader

    leadleader Member+

    Aug 19, 2009
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    But Messi is no Zidane; Messi is just an overrated poacher who occasionally drops deep, but doesn't drop deep consistently enough that it would limit his goal scoring capability. Zidane would correct all of Barcelona's flaws in the midfield. Messi is just a poacher who cannot dominate the midfield, and therefore cannot 'correct' Barcelona's flaws in the midfield. Bottom line: Zidane is better than both Messi and Ronaldo. And Ronaldo is more dominant than Messi. And the more you try to talk some sense into Estel, the more he will believe that he is more intelligent than you, and can see 'truths' that you cannot see. It's silly and embarrassing just how uneducated Estel is about the basics of the sport, let alone the more complex dynamics of the sport.
     
  3. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    That's still true, but only barely in the case of CR7. In league football, CR7 was a poor man's Harry Kane last season, statistically. He has been vastly superior in cup competitions than Kane and ...well... everyone, but cups aren't so reliable (Madrid isn't going to win CL every season).
     
    afar repped this.
  4. ko242

    ko242 Member+

    Jul 9, 2015
    i generally agree with your point. however, messi was literally played as an 'attacking midfielder' this season in a 3-3-1-3 system as messing playing the '1' position. now that i think about, there were a lot of times that he played more like an attacking midfielder. even in a game against real madrid in the classico, he played like an atacking midfielder. i would say that Messi only started playing as an attacking midfielder later on in the season. but of course, it wasn't a 'true' #10 merely because of the freedom he got to stay high up the field at moments of he wanted to. ultimately i don't think either you or @celito are wrong.
     
  5. Bavarian14

    Bavarian14 Member

    Bayern München
    Jun 1, 2017
    Anytime after 2018 WC. Depends on who takes the limelight. Neymar & Griezmann are the main candidates. James, Mbappe, Dybala, Coutinho in long shot
     
  6. Estel

    Estel Member+

    May 5, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    In that case we are arguing two separate aspects. My post to which you originally replied, was
    as I explained, in response to a hyperbole on their respective roles. The only other comment on the comparison between CRonaldo and Messi post Real Madrid's CL victory that I made was related to how, at the end of the day, the team remains king when one considers each players' perception at any given point in time over their careers.


    These goals show how Messi gets almost as many goals by poaching tap-ins/PKs as CRonaldo does, even in a season that he plays more as a playmaking forward. I believe a couple of your points were - 'Messi still gets more goals than CRonaldo, even though he is a playmaker' and 'CRonaldo poaches almost exclusively in contrast to Messi'. The above video was to show how this is a false narrative.

    Ultimately, any set of players putting up the numbers that these two put up, would tend to have a majority of poaching tap-ins and PK goals, interspersed with more classic CF goals and the odd spectacular strike or dribble goal.


    Look at it this way, CRonaldo is doing, very successfully mind you, exactly what his team needs him to do. Since between Bale's injury issues, Benzema's tendency to play as much outside the box as in it and Isco's emergence, what Real Madrid most need is CRonaldo being the primary goal threat and target man within the box.

    Messi similarly has tried to do what his team needs most i.e. play more as a playmaker, maybe even sometimes in the midfield. But he has not been quite as dominant in that role as
    the former midfield playmakers of Barcelona were, when at the top of their game. This is IMO since he still tries to do it like a forward. If he completely converts to a midfield playmaking role though, then there would probably be a drastic decline in his numbers, which is maybe something that he himself does not want.

    Of course, each players' success or lack thereof does have to do with the changes in their respective teams' strengths, but then it does go a long way to show how even players who can put up monstrous numbers like these two, have a lot to thank their teammates for in terms of their trophy cabinets. Messi's fans preferred to minimize that dependency when Barcelona was winning more, maybe CRonaldo's fans would do it now. IMO that would be doing a disservice to their teammates though, especially since it comes from fans of players who are for the most part forwards, and thus dependent to a greater extent on their team than players who occupy more central roles.


    Same in my case. Any further continuation will simply mean rehashing the same points that I have made previously (probably already happened a couple of times as well).

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------​

    If Messi is playing the 1 then there is a vacancy in the center of the front 3, assuming Barcelona did tend to spread out into a 3-3-1-3. I don't see anyone occupying that vacant position though apart from Messi when he moves there, so his role is more akin to a withdrawn CF or a false 9.

    Agreed with the point that Messi's role is not that of a 'true' #10 or as I prefer to call it, a midfield playmaker. Hence I refer to Messi as a playmaking forward, to make that distinction clear.


    Ha ha, true. This is not a Messi vs CRonaldo thread. So back on topic, following is my list of immediate potential future Balon d'Or candidates,

    - Neymar (if he moves out of Barcelona or becomes the go-to-guy there ahead of Messi, or has a monster WC)
    - Bale (if he can stay injury free and can become the go-to-guy at RM in a big season, but there is very little time left for him to do so)
    - Greizmann (it could to happen on the back of a strong showing in a WC win for France after another good run in the CL with Atletico, but needs to show up in finals)
    - Dybala (is placed well to get it by having a great run in the CL followed by a strong showing in the WC, but has to be more consistent)

    There are of course a bunch of new and upcoming talents who look like they could make the step, but maybe their time will come in a couple more years and not immediately. Though the likes of Mbappe, Dembele, Asensio, Rashford, etc. definitely do look like they could go on to upstage their more experienced rivals that I mentioned above, and directly challenge Messi/CRonaldo
     
  7. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    All I will say is go look at his goals in La Liga. You will see a whole lot that was not poaching.
     
  8. leadleader

    leadleader Member+

    Aug 19, 2009
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    #1408 leadleader, Jun 13, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2017
    I'm sorry but the only false narrative is your conveniently false interpretation of the sport. Your argument is like saying that Ronaldo 1996-98 scored a majority of poacher goals, because you think that players who score that many goals will tend to score a majority of tap-ins and PK goals, interspersed with classic CF goals, and the off spectacular striker or dribble goals. But what you're conveniently ignoring, is the fact that Ronaldo 1996-98 or Messi 2010-17 are very much a part of the build up in the creation of these 'poacher goals'.

    There's a big difference between playing in-the-box practically all the time, waiting to 'poach' some goals here and there. And actively being a part of the build up in goals that, looking at the goals themselves (isolated from the build up playmaking), can very much look like 'poacher' goals. In any case: your interpretation that Messi gets almost as many goals by poaching tap-ins/PKs as Ronaldo does, is an incorrect interpretation, and potentially also a dishonest interpretation. Messi gets almost as many goals by poaching tap-ins as Ronaldo does, in plays that Messi himself significantly helps create by getting involved in the midfield areas - Ronaldo scores poacher goals essentially without any involvement in the creation of the plays, that is, other than the minimal involvement of latching on to crosses to score headers and/or tap ins.

    Messi's style of play, obviously limits the amount of goals he can score. This is painfully obvious to anybody who actually watches Barcelona on a regular basis. You are wrong. And possibly, you know that you're wrong, and you're just being a dishonest Zidane fan looking for baseless arguments to diminish the legacy of the most talented player of the modern era.
     
    afar, celito and ko242 repped this.
  9. Estel

    Estel Member+

    May 5, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Aren't we done yet?

    I did, and I expected to find a majority of spectacular strikes/dribble goals, considering what you mentioned above.

    But I counted around only 12-13 spectacular strikes/dribble goals while the number of goals he got from poaching, tap-in/PKs was around 15-16 with the remaining being classic CF strikes like headers or goals from well within the box using strong finishes. So I would maintain that Messi still gets the biggest chunk of his goals from poaching, tap-ins/PK goals, without which for instance, he would have had around 20 goals in La Liga this season.
    That would makes this season of his comparable to that of Gareth Bale in his last year in the EPL from a perspective of impressive goals, since Bale also had 12 spectacular strikes/dribble goals, but those came out of a total of only 25 goals (no PKs and only 4-5 clear poaching, tap-in goals).

    In any case, I never disagreed with Messi being fairly spectacular in La liga this season, but that isn't exactly the same as doing it in the CL, which is arguably tougher and which was the example I gave. Furthermore, CRonaldo had his own challenges with post-injury form related issues in the first half of La liga and being rested for a bunch of games against weaker opposition in the 2nd, that has seen him not being able to show quite as much, this season in La Liga (though he did pick it up by the end, when the stakes became high and there was no margin for error).
     
  10. leadleader

    leadleader Member+

    Aug 19, 2009
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    #1410 leadleader, Jun 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2017
    Which proves what exactly??

    I repeat: scoring non-dribbling-goals from close range WHEN YOU ARE PART OF THE BUILD UP PLAY -- is not 'poaching' goals. A poacher goal scorer is Ronaldo, who sits and waits near or inside the box. Your definition of what 'poacher goals' are, is wrong. Essentially, you're saying that non-dribbling goals, non-sensational goals, are one way or the other essentially 'poacher goals'. Your conclusion is irrational. This isn't a case of you having a different opinion that cannot be disproved by facts, this is a case of you having an opinion against the self-evident reality.

    Again: you're welcomed to think that Zidane is the be all and end all of everything good about football... But when you imply that non-dribbling goals and/or non-sensational goals are proof that Messi just scored a majority of 'poacher goals', your definition of what a 'poacher goal' is, is in fact definitely irrational. You are isolating the goal itself from the fact that Messi is more often than not involved in the build up play. You blindly assume that the playmaking would happen with or without Messi, that is, you blindly assume that Messi could just sit and wait around the box, and that Barcelona will still be equally good in terms of generating the type of 'playmaking' that generates 'poacher goals' for Messi to score. Isolating the goal itself from the overall context that produced the overall situation, is irrational, due to self-evidently obvious reasons.
     
    afar and ko242 repped this.
  11. ko242

    ko242 Member+

    Jul 9, 2015
    rafinha or gomez was occupying the right side role that messi played while messi played as the 1, which was the attcking midfielder. happened a number of times this season.
     
  12. Estel

    Estel Member+

    May 5, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    I don't disagree with the point that this was happening occasionally, but across the entire length of the season, I think it is quite the stretch to suggest this as being the default.

    The reason I say the above is because of graphics like those that I had posted for two of Barcelona's games this season, earlier in this thread (https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/ne...r-lm10-and-when.2015852/page-52#post-35527929), which do not seem to support the above conclusion of yours, from a perspective of the average touch position of the players mentioned.

    Hence my earlier suggestion on Messi's role.
     
  13. ko242

    ko242 Member+

    Jul 9, 2015
    this graphic you posted is from 2011. are we not talking about the season they just played? 2016-17. messi literally played attacking midfielder for a number of games
     
  14. DazerII

    DazerII Member

    May 27, 2011
    19.02.2017 and 26.02.2017. Surely that's 2017!
     
    Estel repped this.
  15. TitoTata

    TitoTata Member+

    Jun 26, 2014
    Surely , Cronaldo's chances of winning of have been slashed since he news that he's been officially charged of tax evasion !?!
     
  16. Estel

    Estel Member+

    May 5, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    The post has two more graphics which are from the 2nd half of the 2016-17 season. The 2011 graphic is only used because it helps to explain Barcelona's lack of midfield play, in comparison.
     
  17. verde-rubro

    verde-rubro Member+

    C.S.Maritimo + Liverpool FC
    Portugal
    Jan 15, 2005
    LONDON
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
     
  18. verde-rubro

    verde-rubro Member+

    C.S.Maritimo + Liverpool FC
    Portugal
    Jan 15, 2005
    LONDON
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal

    Sir Alex at the end, spot on
     
  19. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Poor @zahzah must be going crazy now. :ROFLMAO:
     
  20. zahzah

    zahzah Member+

    Jun 27, 2011
    Club:
    FK Crvena Zvezda Beograd
    Didn't hurt Messi's chances when he was convicted of tax evasion.

    If he's guilty its a stain on his as an individual.
     
  21. ko242

    ko242 Member+

    Jul 9, 2015
    he played the same role against PSG in the 2nd leg and there are multiple other games he played the same role. against PSG, rafinha occupied the right side and messi played behind suarez. who do you think gave that pass to suarez from near the center circle that was rewarded as a penalty?
     
  22. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Furthermore, he didn't cheat with charity money or is a Grondona protege. I don't see why it would or should hurt CR7 his chances. It would be double standards to the max. Maybe taking Blatter out of the mothballs for his best commander impression? And Platini saying again that he's blocking the ascendancy of Neymar?

    What should hurt CR7 his chances, is that he's actually not among the three best in the world any more.

    Marcelo should be top 10, Modric top 5 (so far).
     
  23. DazerII

    DazerII Member

    May 27, 2011
    You probably need to continue this discussion with @Estel as my input was just to highlight that he indeed provided 2017 games.

    Anyway imo there is absolutely no need to base your argument on one play to support your argument in this kind of discussion. The heat map which is objective and has no feelings towards any player will either agree/disagree with your notion.
     
  24. poetgooner

    poetgooner Member+

    Arsenal
    Nov 20, 2014
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    In a fair world, Modric would be the Madrid candidate for Ballon D'or for sure.
     
  25. leadleader

    leadleader Member+

    Aug 19, 2009
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    What is it with this pseudo-objectivity that so many CR7 fans totally fail to understand to any real degree??

    1. The heat map does not demonstrate how many dribble per game, in areas of the pitch per game, Messi produced. It's hardly 'objective' to say that a heat map 'objectively' proves that Messi played as withdrawn striker, when the heat map cannot even determine how many dribbles per game Messi is producing in his 'withdraw striker' role. If the so-called 'poacher goals' by Messi require a dribbling run by Messi -- that can hardly be defined as a poacher goal, given the fact that Messi's dribbling ability is crucial in the build up of said goal.

    The poster known as @Estel can of course play the semantics game, therefore defining Messi as a withdrawn striker - but what Estel cannot 'objectively' do is ignore the fact that Messi's dribbling ability is crucial in many of his goals and/or assists, and then conclude that Messi just scores a majority of poacher goals and/or poacher assists.

    2. The so-called 'objective' heat map did not existed when Zidane played the game, so how exactly does the heat map work when comparing Messi vs. Zidane??

    The poster known as @Estel is using a heat map of Messi, and comparing said heat map vs. Estel's personal opinion of Zidane -- there's nothing remotely 'objective' about what @Estel is doing. If there were 'heat maps' in Zidane's time, they would show that Zidane was not much of a midfielder to begin with, and that Zidane added virtually nothing to the defense.
     

Share This Page