News: New World Cup Qualifying Format For CONCACAF

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Sebsasour, Jul 10, 2019.

  1. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    talking about in general. this will be a distant road world cup. schedule like it. get the players used to playing somewhere they have to fly far off to. doesn't have to be every time, but enough where it's not new when it happens.

    that and as i explained, we have a pretty sharp home-away discrepancy from last time that a bright organization would try to address. and not by coddling the team with endless home games or friendlies nicely scheduled in europe for those who are there -- one of the real reasons that is often done -- for ease of travel and coddling, as much as for the opposition.
     
  2. pirozhok

    pirozhok Member+

    United States
    Jul 20, 2007
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I am sure USSF promoted new format, it was a good business decision. Federation lost a lot of projected revenues/profits due to WCQ 2018 disaster, they could not rely on NT anymore to qualify every cycle, decided to mitigate the risks by eliminating pre-HEX matches (and possible failures). Won't help NT to improve most likely, but won't hurt either, could prevent injuries and fatigue for key players as well.
     
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  3. manfromgallifrey91

    Swansea City
    United States
    Jul 24, 2015
    Wyoming, USA
    Club:
    Southampton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And further on that point, we are now losing the home friendlies so no real upside to doing that. I think along the lines of getting as used to the tournament as possible. I think friendlies should be a week a part with an intrasquad scrimmage in the middle, simulating as best as possible what could happen in a group stage. Flying as much as possible and getting used to the time zone of where the games will be played. But then you have the club seasons and how that factors into the players decisions to come, so its honestly a balancing act.

    I prefer playing harder teams on the road and very few home games, its not like fans are clamoring to pay those ticket prices anyway (not the US fans anyway).
     
  4. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    New format sucks but won't cause us any problems. That's all.
     
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  5. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    Yes, you are right. And Concacaf is right doing that as well. The situation reminds 1999-2001. We barely got through semi finals waddled throw the hex and had a great WC eventually. At the start of the cycle we had no Donovan, DMB, Pablo, Job, Mathis, Wolff.
    Pope was always injured and McBride mediocre. If we missed 2002 WC that would be a disaster for the whole Concacaf as MLS wouldn't survive it. So screw the fairness, I don't mind Concacaf help us when we need it.
     
  6. manfromgallifrey91

    Swansea City
    United States
    Jul 24, 2015
    Wyoming, USA
    Club:
    Southampton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/article/concacaf-announces-format-for-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-confederation-qualifiers

    "“The love for the game in this region is growing rapidly and our diverse and dynamic communities want a clear pathway to world-class football. Through our freshly designed formats — across FIFA World Cup Qualifiers, Concacaf Nations League and Concacaf Gold Cup — we are staging more competitive international matches than ever-before to help these communities fulfill their potential,” said Concacaf President Victor Montagliani. "

    "“This new FIFA World Cup Qualifying format, based on the FIFA rankings, makes every competitive match count. Alongside the Concacaf Nations League, and our expanded Gold Cup, it will raise standards of play to unprecedented levels and develop the sport across the region. Making the leading Concacaf nations stronger on the global stage, while giving our emerging footballing nations the chance to pursue their dreams of playing at a World Cup.”"

    Will it help though? I mean I suppose having the biggest teams go ensures the most money and revenue but Im not sure on the split from the teams fed and CONCACAF.

    I really dont mind it one way or the other. I think they had to change some things up because of Nations League and I guess those games now have added significance for those smaller nations, which means less experimentation (bad thing for us right now) in the games for the bigger teams.
     
  7. Cannons

    Cannons Member+

    May 16, 2005
    I feel were still wasting time. GB will continue to pick the wrong people and come up short only we'll be too close to qualifying to make a change. It's depressing
     
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  8. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Btw, since MLS has us joined at the hip: could anyone better at FIFA math than me confirm if Canada have to beat us in the Nations League to have a shot of reaching the Hex?
     
  9. manfromgallifrey91

    Swansea City
    United States
    Jul 24, 2015
    Wyoming, USA
    Club:
    Southampton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    https://resources.fifa.com/image/up...ion-revision.pdf?cloudid=edbm045h0udbwkqew35a

    Im at work so cant do all that stuff but if anyone is here ya go.

    And here is a scenario

    If this helps:
    Example: Team A has 1300 points before the match and wins a continental qualifier against team B that has 1500 points. For team A the formula is: P=1300+25*(1–(1/(10 exp (-(1300–1500)/600) +1))) For team B the formula is: P = 1500 + 25 * (0- (1 / 10(-(1500-1300)/600) + 1)) Thus, team A wins 17 points and has P = 1317 points after the match. Team B loses the same amount of points and thus ends up with 1483 points after the match.

    Looks like you can make a jump but Im not sure that big a jump.
     
  10. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    I think it's guided by $$$. They wanted two Nations Leagues and also wanted to make sure the USA & Mexico make it. Those two things together maximize the influx of cash.

    Were USA and Mexico not the top two teams in the rankings and safe there, you can bet they'd be happy to sacrifice a Nations League to keep the status quo.

    After all, it was only this time four qualifying dates were needed for the Nations League. They could have two of them plus well planned qualifiers next cycle without a problem. The point of the NL is to happen during the usual "friendlies" windows.
     
  11. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    People are not dumb and many are unhappy with unfair advantages, even when given to themselves. I can see more than a few new fans losing interest when they think about it and realize we're getting an unfair advantage.

    Also, there's karma. Making things easier and easier for us only makes us weaker in the long term.
     
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  12. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm not going to do the math right now, but the only way to make a significant move up the rankings is to beat teams ranked above you, and those two games against the USA are likely Canada's best opportunity to do that.
     
  13. pirozhok

    pirozhok Member+

    United States
    Jul 20, 2007
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'll try to calculate at home, but in any case Canada's main concern is how SLV and PAN will be doing in NL.
     
  14. FeedhimtothepigsArold

    Apr 7, 2014
    Club:
    Oxford United FC
    This is a joke.

    Basically, no games are meaningful.

    Im starting to lose my passion for anything related to US soccer. Whats the point in competition if you take out the competition?
     
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  15. AlbertCamus

    AlbertCamus Member+

    Colorado Rapids
    Sep 2, 2005
    Colorado, USA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Well said.
     
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  16. Elninho

    Elninho Member+

    Sacramento Republic FC
    United States
    Oct 30, 2000
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's possible to squeeze three games into a single FIFA window, even outside of pre-tournament camps. It's a tight squeeze and not often done. The last national team to do it was Myanmar playing friendlies at Indonesia, then home vs. Bolivia, then at Bahrain within last October's window.

    The one thing that would make it hard is club coaches objecting to that level of intensity, which I suspect is why teams in the top 100 don't do it. But if we can assure club coaches that no player will play more than twice, and rotate the squad, we still get most of the benefits.

    Note that Qatar would not involve a lot of travel. The two farthest World Cup venues from one another are only about 75 km apart.
     
  17. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    It's going to be very difficult for Canada.

    IF I calculated the Rankings correctly back a few pages ago, here's what I got coming out of the Gold Cup.

    CAN starts at 1327. There's a real possibility they are lower unfortunately, because I gave them credit for the Win over Martinique, but FIFA may just discard that result in their rankings. Don't know.

    HON is 5th at 1349, El Salvador is 6th at 1342. Then Panama at 1331. Then Canada's 1327.

    If they win all 4 NL games they wold move to 1353, jumping to 5th if the other Nations stay stable (they won't). More realistically if they draw US away, they'd be at 1346. IF they split with the US (say draw-draw) they can win on GD. In that case they would be at 1339 (and on the outside still).

    A big problem for Canada is El Salvador though. By them sucking enough to play in League B, their competition is awful. If ES sweep through Dom Rep., St.Lucia, and Montserrat, they go from 1342 to 1358, a number that Canada CANNOT achieve (of course there are friendlies that can move the needle, but only slightly).

    Meanwhile Honduras has shitty T&T and Martinque. The Martinique games might not even count. If Hondo can beat T&T once and draw with them once, they would rise to 1353, the same as Canada if they win all 4 of their games.

    Panama is of course also a monkey in their wrench.
     
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  18. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I also tried to run the Gold Cup results through the formula. I may have some errors. In parentheses are the point changes due to the tournament. The only positional change in the top 12 was Haiti passing T&T into 10th place. I ignored Martinique games, because I think that's what FIFA does.

    MEX 1604 (+47)
    USA 1549 (+54)
    CRC 1445 (-8)
    JAM 1425 (+28)
    HON 1352 (-16)
    ELS 1342 (0)
    --
    PAN 1331 (+9)
    CAN 1311 (-3)
    CUY 1310 (+8)
    HAI 1290 (+71)
    TRI 1226 (-34)
    ATG 1136 (N/A)

    I'd consider the top 4 to be locks. Maybe somebody can close the gap to surpass Jamaica, but three teams passing them? Only if they go on a big losing streak against all of their League B opponents.

    I think nobody below Haiti has even a remote chance. For Haiti it would probably take them taking at least 4 points against CRC and then beating USA and Mexico in the CNL final rounds.
     
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  19. CMeszt

    CMeszt Member+

    Whelp....
    Jan 9, 2004
    3 blocks from "SoccerHouse", Chicago
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Well in other confederation news, CAF went back to the format they used for 2014 where it all comes down to a home and home knockout.
     
  20. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    I think for some reason you have Honduras wrong, I got 1349, but the rest match mine (except for the Martinique issue) so thanks for the confirmation.

    Agreed. Below Haiti has Zero chance. Jamaica's a lock unless they absolutely shit the bed. Honduras and El Salvador just have to win or draw in games where they are favorites. The Hex is sadly pretty set. But for the US, I guess...Yay?
     
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  21. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    We can call this "CONCACAF's 'F**k Canada' Rule."

    [​IMG]
     
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  22. TOAzer

    TOAzer Member+

    The Man With No Club
    May 29, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Remember, this is Chicago House..... The whole point is to whack the competition before they can be the competition....
    Otherwise, ya know, things might get competitive. And then where would we be, eh? :coffee:
     
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  23. Master O

    Master O Member+

    Jul 7, 2006
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My Prediction:

    The USA will finish 4th and play ...

    Curacao ... and then lose.
     
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  24. Master O

    Master O Member+

    Jul 7, 2006
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
     
  25. CMeszt

    CMeszt Member+

    Whelp....
    Jan 9, 2004
    3 blocks from "SoccerHouse", Chicago
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Or, you know... CONCACAF, the confederation based in Miami that isn't US Soccer.

    But other than that, your post makes total sense.
     
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