News: New World Cup Qualifying Format For CONCACAF

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Sebsasour, Jul 10, 2019.

  1. CMeszt

    CMeszt Member+

    SUM Cabal Executive Director
    Jan 9, 2004
    3 blocks from "SoccerHouse", Chicago
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Sort of. Last time around the early CONCACAF minoow knockouts started in march of 2015, so only the playoffs would have gotten in the way. Not sure if the interconfederation playoffs are at the same time or later this time.
     
  2. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    IF I calculated it correctly (I used a proxy for the Martinique games, but maybe FIFA doesn't consider those at all?), the FIFA rankings coming out of the Gold Cup are:

    MEX 1611
    USA 1549
    CR 1445
    JAM 1425
    HON 1349
    ES 1342
    PAN 1331
    CAN 1327
    CUR 1310
    HAT 1290
    T&T 1226
    NIC 1074
    BER 972
    GUY 953
    CUB 942

    Haiti jumps 71 points based on the Gold Cup putting them within striking distance, but they'd probably have to win their NL group to have a chance.

    Stupid thing it looks like Jamaica has basically punched their ticket to the Hex by NOT qualifying for League A. Good work CONCACAF.
     
  3. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I guess the intention is not bad, but at first reaction I don't like it.
     
  4. Justin O

    Justin O Member+

    Nov 30, 1998
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle
    Hard to wrap my head around this. My initial thought is that this is fine for the upper class (US, Mex, CR) fine for the lower class, who get more games, but highly problematic for the "upper middle class" such as Canada, T&T, Haiti.
     
  5. rgli13

    rgli13 Member+

    Mar 23, 2005
    Memphis, Tn
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    a playoff for a playoff spot. brilliant.

    why not just take the top 3 ranked teams, and see whos ranked higher between the oceania/comnebol (not even getting in the ridiculousness of that rotation) "playoff" team? no need to bother playing any games with our foolproof, totally meaningful formula rankings.

    leaves even more time for nations league games! fifa is pushing that at level of shamelessness that makes the nba/wnba propaganda look like a friendly suggestion (no pun intended).
     
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  6. thedukeofsoccer

    thedukeofsoccer Member+

    Jul 11, 2004
    Youtube: Jimmy Dore, Secular Talk
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I hate the proposed idea, and not because I'm against change period, rather it's majorly biased toward the established powers, who should have to earn their way, and beyond the top 2-3 are extremely volatile based on golden generations. Some teams could be grandfathered in.

    Also, as aforementioned, it could be gamed. It's not like that's a ranking system which is considered reliable. It's not even ELO-level.

    From a selfish standpoint, it mostly helps. Although it gets even dicier than before if winding up in the 4th spot, which we didn't even do last cycle. And it would make the schedule less mundane not having to face a glut of minnows. Less having to sweat it out in that preliminary round which often is left late even if the comp sucks due to the format and one misstep.
     
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  7. owian

    owian Member+

    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They really are doing their best to drive me away from International Football. First the Qatar fiasco, then the 48 teams joke and now this?

    I understand the desire to give more competitive matches to the smaller associations but there has to be a better way. I mean seriously 6 teams have a better than 50/50 chance to qualify and everyone else has to play this long convoluted tournament to maybe get a chance to be knocked out by Uruguay?

    This is a F*** joke right?
     
  8. Mantis Toboggan M.D.

    Philadelphia Union
    United States
    Jul 8, 2017
    This is the dumbest shxt in the history of dumb shxt. It shouldn't directly affect the US, but it's awful.
     
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  9. pirozhok

    pirozhok Member

    United States
    Jul 20, 2007
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    On the surface:

    1. It benefits top 6 teams - so good news for our clowns and their ringmaster
    2. Makes CONCACAF bottom feeders play much more competitive games - possible raise in TV revenues?
    3. Possibly helps to fulfill Montigliani's purpose as CONCACAF chief to put CAN to WC - CAN is at 8th place now with 28 pts between them and 6th place SLV
    4. Helps to continue transition from friendlies to competitive games on FIFA windows - raise in TV revenues and ticket sales
    5. Is it hard on other 29? - Who the ******** cares?
     
  10. ChuckBlazersCat

    ChuckBlazersCat New Member

    Tottenham Hotspur, Celtic FC, FC St. Pauli, Chicago Fire
    United States
    Mar 25, 2019
    Since Jamaica is in B, I'd think they'd be hurt even by winning all the games in their B league. That said if we're using the eye test and the logical test, I think Jamaica would be a pretty good consensus as the 4th best team in CONCACAF right now. Lost in ES in CNQ, yes, but the US and CR would probably lose there in a competitive match, too. In the Gold Cup, Honduras and El Salvador were in their group, they won the group...the other two were eliminated, while Jamaica then went on to beat Panama. So I do think it's reasonable for them to be ahead of the 3 that follow behind them.

    Bottom line, this format is really good for 1 thru 4 and 12-35, but really bad for about 5 through 11.

    In CONCACAF's slight defense, it does preserve US, Mexico and Costa Rica playing home and home qualifiers against each other, which are must-see TV. It's also a one-off thing this cycle, given 6 bids in the future so it probably wont lead to anyone figuring out and gaming the system in such short order.
     
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  11. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    Jamaica won't be hurt unless they lose games, as you cannot subtract points unless you lose in the FIFA system now. Their group is Guyana, Antigua, and Aruba, so that really really shouldn't happen.

    Now, they won't gain hardly any points either with those matches either, but sitting almost 100 clear right now, they look pretty golden.

    And, shit El Salvador is in B league 2. They sit at 6th. They are in a really weird spot, basically not controlling their own destiny and are basically just at the mercy of Panama, Cananda, and the others in that sphere now.

    Their group games consisting of Dom Rep, St.Lucia, Montserrat, based on rankings right now, El Salvador would gain 3 points by beating Dom Rep and/or St.Lucia and 2 for beating Montserrat. Total possible gain of 16 points. If they lose or draw any they are really screwed.

    Then again, I just sim Panama's NL games. Assume they beat Cuba twice and the lose once to Mex and draw the other. They'd only gain 6 points. So they can't really catch ES. They gonna need to beat a win against Mexico, maybe both times to catch ES if tthe sallies just win against those crap teams.

    The more you dig into this, the more ridiculous it is.
     
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  12. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would just like to add my barf to everyone else's.
     
  13. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What they should do is sh!t can the Hex altogether.

    Go with two four (or five) team groups. Winners in. 2nd place PO for 3rd spot, loser to .5 game.

    Yeah, they have to keep $$$ from USA/Mex Hex games. And try to invent a reason Nations League matters. But this is awful.
     
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  14. Marius Tresor

    Marius Tresor Member

    Aug 1, 2014
    This is clearly designed to address 2 issues:

    1. Make the Nations League games of some importance; and
    2. Increase the likelihood that the U.S. and Mexico qualify (or probably better phrased as decrease the possibility that the U.S./Mexico might not qualify).

    CONCACAF does not want a repeat of 2014 Mexico (almost) and 2018 USA. They probably would have just advanced the top 2 ranked teams to the WC, if they thought they could get away with that. FIFA is probably as much, or even more on board with this. They might even be behind this scheme.
     
  15. Rahbiefowlah

    Rahbiefowlah Member+

    Oct 22, 2001
    Las Vegas
    These rankings don’t reflect the Gold Cup results yet do they?

    Either way the big news is now we have 14 months to get ready for the Hex. So awesome that we wasted so much time for no reason at all.
     
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  16. FirstStar

    FirstStar Hustlin' for the USA

    Feb 1, 2005
    Time's Arrow
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I am happy to see the Quad go- that round always had the greatest chance of random variability. This new format still sucks. We are going to go years without meaningful matches. Years. And with the Nations League (here and in Europe), int’l soccer for the US and Mexico is going to be really dull.
     
  17. Elninho

    Elninho Member+

    Oct 30, 2000
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The European Nations League is probably the worst thing that's happened to the international game in recent years. Even before the CONCACAF Nations League was announced, it was clear that at least half of the worthwhile friendly opponents in the world had been taken almost completely off the table.

    It's really strange and unfortunate that, even as international transportation is more reliable and accessible than it's ever been, the number of inter-confederation friendlies being played worldwide has gone downward since it peaked in the early 1990s. And with this cycle, it's gone off a cliff.
     
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  18. CMeszt

    CMeszt Member+

    SUM Cabal Executive Director
    Jan 9, 2004
    3 blocks from "SoccerHouse", Chicago
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    We'll have to see how it all works out. Euro League A teams will have 2 free dates out of 6 available during Nations League time and we're at least still an attractive opponent for teams looking to play outside of UEFA. What will be less common is teams coming over here to play us then Mexico or another CONMEBOL team in the USA in a single road trip.

    I think we're going to be playing a lot of games against CONMEBOL in the future.
     
  19. ArsenalMetro

    ArsenalMetro Member+

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 5, 2008
    Chicago, IL
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    On the other hand, friendlies suck and are largely a waste of everyone's time and money.

    Games against Cuba aren't any better, but that's a format problem more than anything else.
     
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  20. trafficjam304

    trafficjam304 Member

    May 28, 2010
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    awful awful awful
     
  21. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    Amen.

    It would scream for us to schedule mediocrity to enhance/protect our ranking. I know some will say, "but the algorithm favors strength of schedule." Not if you get routinely killed like we did in the fall. No, for our purposes you would want to schedule middling teams and run the table.
     
  22. Roger Allaway

    Roger Allaway Member+

    Apr 22, 2009
    Warminster, Pa.
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Under this schedule, it appears that the Hex will end in September 2021, when the World Cup itself doesn't begin until November 2022. More than half of the games in the Hex will be in 2020, two years or more before the World Cup.

    Why did they move so much of the Hex earlier in a cycle in which the World Cup was being played later?

    Other than that, however, I don't mind this format. I don't think the small nations are getting screwed the way some people think. They chance they're getting is indeed small, but I think it was even smaller in previous cycles when they had to go through the same sort of elimination process in order for one or two of them to get into the semifinal round.

    Canada? In the past, they had to get past nations like Trinidad and Guatemala to get into the Hex. Now, they have to get past nations like Trinidad and Guatemala to get a shot at the #4 team in the Hex. This doesn't seem like a big drop-off.
     
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  23. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    Not really.

    The weighing of friendlies makes them not move the needle a whole lot.

    For Example if we played Belgium (#1 right now):

    Loss - Lose 3 (yep only 3) points
    Draw - Gain 2
    Win - Gain 7

    Even less if it's a non-fifa date.
     
  24. ArsenalMetro

    ArsenalMetro Member+

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 5, 2008
    Chicago, IL
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    The format actually isn't bad.

    It gives more teams competitive games against competitively-appropriate opposition, and that's good. We won't see the Bahamas get knocked out of qualifying 36 months before the tournament.

    It's the fact that Concacaf is arbitrarily deciding that FIFA rankings automatically select the teams in the final stage, without giving teams a way to actually win their way into it that's the problem. And announcing it 11 months before the rankings that make that determination? Insanity.
     
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  25. CMeszt

    CMeszt Member+

    SUM Cabal Executive Director
    Jan 9, 2004
    3 blocks from "SoccerHouse", Chicago
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    two international dates in October for the CONCACAF playoff, then two international dates in November for the intercontinental playoff. Seemingly, FIFA wants qualification wrapped up by November 2020 despite the later start of the World Cup.
     

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