Neverending Story 3: The Ongoing Brexit Thread

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I have given an indication as to how I think things will go. I think we'll lose some seats overall but the Liberals and SNP will gain roughly the same number so parliament will probably end up back where it started.

But, presumably you realise that two years ago is before now, do yer? Coz, y'know... that's how time works

So, no... I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for something you probably did back then. It's not a prediction now, is it. It's historical data.

I'm just interested as to how accurate your predictions were from that time what you being an 'expert' and all

 

I think the average pundit prediction for Labour last time was around 160-170 seats. And I think every one of those pundits is still employed.

 

1192164863436640256 is not a valid tweet id

 

A few administrations ago in the states we had a vice president who used to shoot rich people. Nothing in the UK is new under the sun.

 

And he gets a rep of being a bad guy, he should be celebrated by the left for shooting rich people.

 

Give me a prediction first. An actual prediction.

 

Jesus... what are you, 12 years old?

Tell yer what... you tell me what you predicted last time first, then I might consider it.

 

That's not how this works. You want the respect of reciprocity or not?

Look, this sounds petty on the surface but is actually the process I take my students through when they learn to think for themselves. They're curious about the world but want their teacher to provide the explanation. Instead of spoon-feeding them whatever they request, I make them do some work on their own.

This isn't a hard ask. At the end of the General Election, if you're wrong, no secret police are coming for you. I'm not going to think better or worse of you if your gut instinct proves more correct than polling; all you're doing is guessing wildly. Just tell me how many seats (a single number for each party) and share of the vote (again, a single number for each party) that the Tories, Labour, and LibDems will earn this election. Then I'll tell you all you want to know about 2017.

As a reminder that I've already done my bit, here is my prediction from last week:

 

LOL

I don't give a shit what you think. You've ignored all my points and have even ignored any data that doesn't support your warped view of the political reality, preferring to rely on meaningless nonsense about people being 'bad' or 'good' at politics.

Truth is we all KNOW why you don't want to admit what your prediction was at the start of the last general election.... because you, like everybody else, got it spectacularly wrong I'm guessing.

TBH, I don't have a problem with that. I thought we were likely to lose seats as well. Bluntly, who gives a shit!!!

But to start pretending that these threads are on some sort of spread betting forum and that the ONLY thing that matters is whether one's long term predictions are right, (we can ALL make predictions a few days or weeks before a vote), is just... well, it's pathetic, quite honestly.

I am here to discuss the politics of this election. You're not and you clearly have no interested in doing do.

Until you actually start to discuss the politics and, more specifically, the POLICIES, (because that's what's important after all), I'm just going to ignore you.

 

1) In a representative democracy, we as citizens delegate our policymaking powers to a body of representatives.

2) Those representatives possess policymaking powers, and enforcement of those powers.

3) In democracies, the representatives organise themselves into groups called political parties.

4) The largest political party, or coalition of political parties, is able to wield control over policymaking and enforcement. We call that a government.

5) We select that body of representatives at regular intervals called elections. In the prelude to those elections, called "campaigns," some companies called "polling firms" ask a representative sample of voters who they plan to vote for, and publish those reports.

6) The political party that is able to obtain the majority will be the one that implements the policies they want.

7) In this election, Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party look on pace to win a small majority. This means they will implement their Brexit deal, which is the entire purpose of this thread.

8) Since the purpose of this thread is to talk about what has happened with Brexit and what will happen, it is often a useful exercise to try and predict whether the Brexit deal will pass.

9) If the Tories win a majority, they will pass their Brexit deal.

10) If they do not, the Brexit deal will collapse and a new government -- with different Brexit priorities -- will take office.

11) I believe I can predict that the Brexit deal will pass because I can use public opinion polling to predict the result of the general election.

12) I have asked you, as someone who rejects the predictability of public opinion polling, to predict the result of the general election -- and therefore, the Brexit policy that will occur.

13) You have asked me, instead, to tell you my retrospective prediction of the 2017 election, thinking that somehow I am obligated to provide you additional information while you are not obligated to provide any information to me.

I think I have covered as much as I need to. It should embarrass you far more than it does that I had to spell all of this out.

 

Johnson's on fine form again I see...

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...northern-ireland-to-gb-wont-be-checked-brexit

Boris Johnson has been accused of misunderstanding his own Brexit deal after he again insisted his government would not implement any customs checks on goods from Northern Ireland to Great Britain.

Interviewed by the BBC on a tightly controlled visit to a hospital on Friday, the prime minister repeated a claim he made in a video that emerged overnight of a rambling speech in Northern Ireland.

Asked about customs controls on goods being moved between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, he said: “We are the government of the UK and we will not be instituting such checks.”

The Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, told the House of Lords last month that businesses would need to complete “exit summary declarations” when sending shipments from Northern Ireland to the rest of the UK.

Asked whether he was saying the government would not enforce such declarations, Johnson said: “That’s right – we’re one UK territory, we need to get this deal done, get it over the line and take the country forward.”​

This stuff has been disproved repeatedly but Johnson seems to be turning it into a zombie fact... it doesn't matter how many times it shown to be wrong, he'll keep repeating it.

 

The point with modern communication is that the fascist way of making the press into a liars den (fake news/Lügenpresse etc.) in the mind of their supporters is working bloody well. They believe every lie their delusion brain pied pipers serve them. They only discover it's a lie after they voted for that truth and still are so stupid not to get it. See the XXX million NHS bus lie.
The whole Brexit and USA elections are a testament against voting rights for intelligence impaired people.

 

https://politicalwire.com/2019/11/10/russian-donors-named-in-secret-u-k-report/

Holy shit.

 

Well, I personally am shocked... shocked I tell yer!

 

Only emotionally.

 

4th general election in 9 years huh British politics are having so many elections reminds me of Israel lol. For the Brits who live there what is Labour issue of why they cannot breakout and win a GE? Is it because voters still blame Brown-Blair for the widening wealth gap, Iraq war, immigration and sluggish economy in those years. Or is it because of weak Leadership Miliband and Corbyn? Or another reason. Because the Tories don't look too hot themselves yet they still pull off wins or at least pluralities.

 

We lost a lot of support during the Blair years because of the neo-liberal economic policies and because of the military adventures you mention.

Regarding leadership, people have argued that we've lost support because Corbyn's policies are too left-wing but that statement's rather undermined by the fact the previous guy, Miliband's, policies weren't particularly left-wing, (indeed, some have been co-opted by the tories), and he did a lot worse. Some have pointed out that was because people were voting tactically in that election but, strictly speaking, that situation hasn't changed particularly for this one.

But the long and short of why Labour hasn't done better is because the left -wing vote is split between people who support different anti-tory policies and, unlike the potus elections, those candidates actually have a chance of getting elected in individual constituencies.

If I look back at the GE's for most of my adult life the tories haven't got NEAR a majority of the votes when they won, often between mid 30's to just over 40%, (David Cameron won a majority in 2015 on 36.9%) , and yet the amount of difference between the policies of the labour, liberal, green, snp, plaid cymru, etc. etc. have been negligible to non-existent, (2017 excepted I suppose).

 

Doesn't Farage's chickening out mean he's due less election coverage?
If he's only contesting 300 or so seats, he should get half of the air time of the other main parties.

 

The brexit parties are way more organized to win the election than the other parties.

No surprise at all.

 

That's because they're not a 'party' in any meaningful sense... they're just the Nigel Farage fan club. Having said that, it turns out even the most docile fanboy can turn fractious if they're pushed far enough...

We're there. We've finally reached Peak Brexit. pic.twitter.com/dBg4kuuPbF

— Roland Smith (@rolandmcs) November 12, 2019

 

Why doesn't the "Brexit Party/UKIP" and the Tories run on a united ticket or slate like they do in other parliamentary countries with parties with similar ideology? Easier to get a majority that way.

 

Because, like I say, they're just Nigel Farage's fan club and Nigel Farage's 'ex'. It would be like a guy's ex-wife and his current girlfriend joining together to buy him a Christmas present.

 

This sort of thing might have 'legs', as they say...

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ddey-threatens-to-stand-down-in-marginal-seat

During the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election we did almost no work AFAIK which probably helped put them over the top or, at least, helped.