Neverending Story 3: The Ongoing Brexit Thread

The only thing I know about the British LibDems is that this song is apparently about them:

 

So say another 25% are business types that vote conservative, where the fvck are the other 18%?

 

You're imagining they'd be doing better with someone else. It's a counterfactual, obviously but that's unlikely, IMO.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/21/jeremy-corbyn-campaign-trail-labour-brexit-divide

The thing is that this has become a religious issue... and that's for BOTH sides.

People are pretending that it's just the brexiters that are all batshit crazy but there are many, MANY remain voters that will ONLY be satisfied with every brexit voter being publicly led through the streets wearing signs saying, 'nationalist scum', 'racist', 'Arsenal -supporter' and the like, whilst being pelted with rotten eggs by small children. The brexiters won't be satisfied with anything less than the reintroduction of 'Madame Guillotine.

At some point we need to try and bring people back together again and, in that regard, simply re-running the last referendum isn't the best way to proceed because SOMEBODY will be pissed off. You're also imagining, (rather fondly I have to say), that we'd be guaranteed to get the 'right decision'.

So with a throwaway election tomorrow where people can, almost literally, vote for the monster raving loony party because we've all been told they won't be taking their seats for more than a few months, (which might ALSO turn out to be wrong), people are just using the opportunity to have a go at 'them', whoever 'THEM' is.

As I said a few days ago, I was surprised the liberals weren't doing a lot better than they were so maybe they'll pick up the pure 'remain' votes in this election, albeit rather pointless as it is... which is fair enough in my book, tbh.

Their 'Bollocks to brexit', whilst crude, is not exactly sophisticated messaging but it IS simple to understand and, as we all know, they'll never have to worry about picking up the pieces of the damage caused to the nation when this is all over

 

Dunno... Would Labour take an actual opposition position on Brexit if it were under different leadership?

While there is certainly a percentage of Labour voters that are pro-Brexit, it seems like a significantly larger portion is pro-Remain. By riding the fence, Corbyn seems to be annoying both ends of the spectrum and driving both groups away from Labour.

 

Oh almost certainly.

But the problem goes back to what I was saying before about the data pointing in different directions.

The thing is there IS an almost purely remain party that have candidates across the UK, (so, not just the SNP who are in Scotland IOW), the libdems. They got 23% back in 2010 before this all started so that was probably their underlying popularity, untainted by the brexit 'factor'.

They then collapsed down to 7.9% in the 2015 GE because of the student grants betrayal so, normally, you'd think they'd have recovered somewhat in the following election where brexit WAS a factor.

In fact they went DOWN again... to 7.4% with a manifesto that promised to hold a 2nd referendum on brexit...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39946809

If there were a GE tomorrow I'd imagine we'd be promising to renegotiate a better 'labour' deal, (so in the CU and IM), and then hold a 2nd referendum to confirm whether people want THAT or simply to stay in.

But, (and this might come as news to some people), there ISN'T!!!

All that's happening tomorrow is an election for a body we've all been told we'll be leaving soon.

So most people won't be voting and the only ones that DO will be pro and anti extremists and a few political obsessive losers with too much time on their hands. Well, OK I mean me, don't I

It's going to be like the NRA and anti-abortion nutters on steroids and the people that go on marches AGAINST the NRA and anti-abortion nutters on steroids.

The turnout in EU elections varies normally from about 25-35%. IIRC the most it's been in few decades was LESS than 40% so you don't need much to get a large share of the vote.

What will be interesting will be to see the numbers that vote for the brexit party and compare it with the number that voted for brexit. That's interesting because we keep being told that 17.4m ALL voted for what Farage says is a 'real brexit', i.e. leave and trade on WTO terms.

I think we'll find that it's nothing LIKE 17.4m people. I think he'll be lucky to get HALF that.

IOW it could be argued there are something like 10m people that voted for brexit but not a hard brexit. Of course, that's not how he and the hard right meeja will be putting it.

 

The difference between bullshit and analysis is the presence of analysis.

http://theconversation.com/why-labo...ear-from-brexit-voters-than-they-think-117140

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/labour-brexit-remain-voters-european-elections



Sorry for being emotional again.

 

None of which contradicts anything I've said... that people are moving to the libdems and greens in this one, specific, election, (which they don't think will matter).

 

Predict something. Predict something in a way that allows you to be wrong. It's called falsifiability.

For example:

I predict that, if Jeremy Corbyn is the Labour Party leader in the next general election, Labour will pick up fewer than 200 seats. If Jeremy Corbyn is not the leader, then Labour will pick up more than 262 seats.

My prediction allows me to be wrong. If Corbyn is leader in the next general election and Labour get more than 200 seats, I am wrong. Additionally, if he is forced out/resigns, and Labour get fewer than 262 seats, I can also be wrong.

I have laid out a precise set of conditions under which I can be wrong.

Predict something.

 

We can all blame politicians, but I sometimes like to blame the people.

This part.

The problem is that young labor people both love Corbyn and are remainers.

That seems to be a crazy position for young labor people to have and it makes it difficult for a labor Brutus to take out Corbyn,

 

You could make it look like an accident

 

I don't see how you can predict anything at the moment. Even if we get a new Tory leader, until the Brexit Party/Tory votes settles down anything could happen.

The latest poll of polls from Britain Elects would give Labour 312 seats on 29.4% of the vote.



Don't forget, almost everyone was predicting under 200 seats for Labour just weeks before the 2017 election.

 

It's worth pointing out, again, that it's not so much Corbyn they love as his policies. The only significance of Corbyn as an individual is that people generally believe he'll try and actually do what he SAYS he'll do. Whether he will or not remains to be seen.

As I've said in this very thread, (explicitly, IN TERMS), he might not get the chance because we may have passed 'peak Corbyn'. It's just a fact of life that people want something new and fresh. People today, unfortunately, seem to have the attention span of a goldfish

But it's also worth pointing out that relying on the votes of the single part of society whose vote is COMPLETELY unreliable seems a rather odd choice but, what do I know. I've only been doing this shit, (including analysis the data), for the past several decades

 

As I've said repeatedly, I voted for Corbyn the first time but for the OTHER guy the 2nd. There's a reason for that.

My only argument is with this idea that a simple change of leader would be a guarantee of success. That is a LONG way from obvious.

In his case, people believe that he believes what he says precisely because he HAS been saying the same stuff for many years. With someone new they'd be claiming that they don't believe what they're saying because they have no record of saying it before.

So maybe Jacinda is probably in that sweet spot of not having much history but, then again, how different is that to Ed Miliband who was only elected as an MP in 2005. He had no history of supporting the policies that people found popular in 2017 so they wouldn't have voted for him at THAT point. In truth he was actually pretty anodyne.

Like lanman says...

In all honesty ANYBODY who says they can confidently predict what's going to happen simply hasn't been paying attention.

There are just too many variables as it stands.

 

Believe me, I understand far more than you do this sentiment. The world is so vast and complicated, people are making unprecedented decisions, and we're in uncharted territory. How on earth could people possibly predict something?

The answer, is, slightly counter-intuitively, by predicting things. I'm leaving myself open to being wrong. I have an explanation for why Jeremy Corbyn is so bad at his job, and why the Liberal Democrats and Greens' policy weaknesses are being ignored. If Labour were to replace Corbyn with anyone - virtually ANYONE - else, Labour would rebound because the actions that led to Corbyn's departure would mean the party reoriented itself, purged the bigots, made itself a clear Remainer party, etc.

My explanation (although, if I'm being fair, "my" explanation is really the synthesis of journalists and pollsters) is full of opportunities to be incorrect, and at every step, if I continue to be correct, I eliminate false alternatives. As long as I'm not immediately disproven, my explanation has merit.

The minute I fail to predict something meaningful, my explanation is wrong. We search for a new explanation, and try to predict something else.

It also prevents me from seeing Labour rebound under Corbyn and say "See! I've been saying that the whole time!"

Then predict something. If you've done analysis you're familiar with associational statistical techniques at the very least. Tell me how some X is associated with some Y.

 

The results this weekend could be interesting. Turnout figures are starting to come out, with strong Leave areas showing very low figures and Remain areas showing higher than usual for Euro elections.
Could the Brexit Party support be overstated in the polls?

 

If BP support is solid, then the Tories will start going for a hard Brexit, whoever is in charge. If BP poll at 15% for Westminster then they'll struggle to even be the largest party if Labour can keep at 30%. Party before country.

 

May out...

Who's in?

 

Hopefully Grayling, because when he goes to speak to the EU he's likely to Revoke A50 by mistake.

 

BTW, you're basing that on?

You keep making these outlandish demands for me to, 'predict something', like there's some merit in being able make a prediction, (for an election that might not happen for several years), but you haven't even detailed what you're basis your OWN prediction on.

I mean, can I assume that Theresa May is still prime minister? Well, I could have up till a few hours ago, couldn't I.

What about if Boris Johnson is PM... or Dominic Raab? What if we leave with no deal and the economy craters... what then? What if we come to a 'soft brexit', unexpectedly, under BoJo. That's something I've seen suggested... it's not like he's bothered about saying one thing and doing the complete opposite.

As I say, it's obvious to everyone, (well.. maybe not everyone, apparently ), that there are simply too many variables atm so demands for 'predictions' are a bit daft.

Also, let's be honest, all you're doing is frantically searching for data to prove your OWN prejudices are right. All of the alleged 'data' you've given can be better explained by other political issues that were occurring at the same time.

I have my own reasons for thinking that Corbyn is problematic with voters, (particularly around here and places like it), but the reasons you've suggested to do with antisemitism have very little evidence to support them.

Like I say, it was the manifesto that was popular around here... not Corbyn himself.

 

This is why I do not take you seriously.

I explain why my hypothesis can be easily disproven. If we leave in a no-Deal and support for Labour is rallied while Corbyn is in office, then I am wrong. If Boris Johnson takes over and things collapse for the Tories even further, and Labour manage to eke out wins in a four-party environment, then I am wrong.

You have left yourself open to never being wrong. Therefore, you leave yourself able to claim vindication under any circumstance that arises.

That is garbage.