Yeah, I spoke to hundreds of Obama voters every month in Florida and Ohio during the 2008 and 2012 elections and I never thought that those experiences were more valid than public opinion polling. Sorry, that didn't come across as condescending as I meant it. Give me half an hour to work up my energy and I'll really do it justice.
Again I don't think they are "more valid" than polling. e.g in the buildup to 2017, I remember Labour had some dreadful doorstep stories coming thru. But the fears turned out to be largely unfounded. If we go back to what I actually posted, I simply said NM offers insights into whats going on in active grass roots campaigning in the midlands. e.g some specific confirmation that focussing on services/NHS type stuff works. I don't think it holds any water in terms of how Corbyn is perceived in Surrey Hills or Hull.
I think you are being overly emotional about this. Like I said, I disagree with my Dad over lots of Labour tactics and messaging - but the thing he has that I don't have is that over multiple campaigns, he doorstepped 1000s of voters in working class Christchurch. Of course its coloured by his own prejudices and beliefs. But he does have insights you don't get from Op Ed. For instance why was the big strategy about Tory corruption in the city not leading to votes? From polling Labour knew the Tory mayor was popular because he had been on TV a lot. But why was he still popular when he was a crook? Going door to door showed people simply weren't aware of the details despite significant media coverage. When you've worked specific neighbourhoods for years you get a level of insight about those communities that you don't get only from polling or Op Ed. But you are reaching a point where the team have spoken to virtually every potential Labour household in the district.
What's been fascinating to read is that this entire time I have said "no, let's focus on the data and not our experiences" while NM has been very good at bringing his emotions. But I'm the one being overly emotional. Fascinating.
Pointing out that the polling numbers weren't reflected in the 2017 GE when we put ON 3.5m votes, (particularly at a time when there was constant coverage of Corbyn's alleged 'antisemitism), isn't 'emotion'. Pointing out that the drop in the polls around the formation of the ChangeUK party were probably more connected precisely TO the formation of that party as another political option for the voters and not necessarily any alleged reason for it's formation, isn't 'emotion'. The evidence is contradictory, isn't it... that's the point. However, I shouldn't have called into question your objectivity. I realise you were simply raising contrary data and should have just accepted it as such, That was uncalled for and didn't help the debate so, sorry Regarding the future, I honestly don't know what will happen in the future. It might be that we've passed 'peak Corbyn'. That's obviously a possibility. We'll just have to see I suppose.
Then put all this Brexit crap aside for a moment. Have you booked your travel for the finals in Ubekibekibekistan yet. What tickets there are for the match can be had for a mere 5k or so. Oh...and there's only 1 flight a week or you can take a 4 day train trip unless you prefer a 59 hr drive. Ps...Another option would be to drop Chelsea and adopt a team that's just been relegated!
The kid in the ambulance.... <iframe width="683" height="512" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Lvlt3Uyoli0" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Labour has begun another slide in the polls, whereas the Conservatives might as well not be a major party any more. https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/
People answers are coloured by their intended votes in the euro elections, (which the majority of people don't vote in), due in less than a week.
The new party that is shooting up, is that the splinter group from the big 2 or the new Brexit party? Edit: Nevermind, I checked it is the new Brexit party. And UKIP.
It basically is the new UKIP, and is polling lower than UKIP was back in the day UKIP basically got reabsorbed by the Tories in 2017
Very true. But they are largely riding the wave of the European Parliament elections right now and Leavers are flocking to them to voice their disapproval for the Conservatives and, to a lesser degree, Labours failure to actually leave the EU. Once the EU elections are done, I would expect their support to start to drop since they don't really have any other policy stances.
Probably the more critical story is that May is now going to be rolled - likely by BOJO In his letter today ending negotiations, Corbyn correctly pointed out that May could not command her own party, and thus was unlikely to be able to deliver on a negotiated solution BOJO claims he will go back to the EU to negotiate a new WTA - LOL One obvious point is he won't make the same mistakes as Maybot already made and will drop her deal like a hot potato - but where does that leave him? I don't get the feeling BOJO is very committed to Brexit - it is all about himself. So perhaps he will use his political capital to try to break out of the current paradigm? Otherwise he is stuck with no deal same as before.