NCAA DI Women's Soccer Selection Show

Could be a banner day for the SEC tomorrow, or could be a whiny one (where will Auburn & Arkansas land?)
I think Florida State sneaks up and takes that final #1 seed.
South Carolina still gets a #1 seed, with their overall record, and still lean on their SEC regular season title.

Duke is still the most dangerous team overall in this tournament.


Seeded Teams
1.) West Virginia, Stanford, South Carolina, Florida State (ACC conference tournament champs)
2.) BYU, USC, Florida, Notre Dame (ACC regular season champs)
3.) Minnesota, Georgetown, North Carolina, UCONN
4.) UCLA, Clemson, Virginia, Duke


Region #1
South Carolina
Notre Dame
Minnesota
Clemson

Region #2
Florida State
Florida
UCONN
Duke

Region #3
West Virginia
USC
Georgetown
Virginia

Region #4
Stanford
BYU
North Carolina
UCLA


Best potential match-ups from the predictions above:

1.) Duke at Florida State (Sweet 16, and rematch of last year's College Cup Semifinal. tons of pro talent here)
2.) Florida at Florida State (Elite 8, they didn't play each other in the regular season, we finally get to see it here)
3.) North Carolina at BYU (Sweet 16, and rematch of the 2012 Elite 8 classic)
4.) Minnesota at Notre Dame (Sweet 16, bruising Midwest match played in the bitter cold at South Bend)
5.) UCLA at Stanford (Sweet 16, some would argue this should be #1, but won't be as physical as the matches above)
6.) USC at West Virginia (Elite 8, some top NWSL prospects here, and if WVU loses, it very well could be here)
7.) Virginia at West Virginia (Sweet 16, if only UVA had Brian, Doniak, Colaprico. if so, this would be the #1 match)
8.) Clemson at South Carolina (Sweet 16, in-state rivals and this one could get mighty physical)
9.) BYU at Stanford (Elite 8, and this is probably where BYU runs out of fuel, if they make it this far)
10.) Notre Dame at South Carolina (Elite 8, ACC and SEC regular season champions collide)

 

This is where CPThomas has to patiently explain why Florida State won't even be close to a #1 seed and more like a #4

 

There is no way FSU will be a #4 seed.
The ACC tournament champion is not going to get a #4 seed.
Also, FSU now has Deyna. That strengthens their case vs. where they were over a month ago.

 

Committee doesn't care who you have on your team. Maybe they won the conference tournament, but it goes down as a tie. I don't know about 4 seed, but it's highly unlikely that they will get a 1 seed. They have way too many holes in their body of work to be considered for a 1 seed.

 

So does every one else not named West Virginia, Stanford, and South Carolina.
Someone has to get that last #1 seed.

In any other year, yep .... FSU's resume right now would be a #3 or #4 seed.
But there is so much parity after those three teams (WVU, Stanford, South Carolina).
Winning the ACC tournament has always been the biggest crowning achievement in the committee's eyes.
At least in terms of getting a #1 seed.

We'll see if that holds true this year.
BYU hasn't played the schedule, and lost to Nebraska.
Their road victory at Penn State doesn't look nearly as good as FSU's achievement in winning the ACC tournament.

USC lost to UCLA, in terms of what have you done for us (and the committee) lately.
So USC is on thin ice right now to get that last #1 seed.
Will two Pac 12 teams get a #1 seed, but no ACC teams?
That doesn't follow traditional pattern, but this is a "strange" year, so anything can happen.

 

Southern Cal has some holes in their resume, as do Florida State and North Carolina. But what about this: Southern Cal beat North Carolina 3-0. North Carolina beat and tied Florida State. Two of the NCAA's criteria are head-to-head results and results against common opponents. Southern Cal's ARPI is significantly better than Florida State's. Southern Cal's Non-Conference ARPI is significantly better than Florida State's. Southern Cal's results against Top 60 teams are the best in the country (according to my scoring system), Florida State's are 11th best, and North Carolina's are 19th best. The ACC has the #2 average ARPI and the Pac 12 has the #3, and when you look at the exact averages, they're extremely close. If you look at average Non-Conference ARPIs, the Pac 12 is #1 and the ACC is #3, but again they're very close. (According to the NCAA, the ANCRPI better reflects conference strength. I'm not sure I agree, though I understand their theory.)

Florida State finished the ACC regular season tied for #5 with North Carolina. If you average finishing positions in the regular season and conference tournament, Florida State finished with an average of #3 and UNC with #3.5. Southern Cal finished their conference season tied for second, giving them a #2.5.

I mention all of these things because they are part of the data the Women's Soccer Committee receives. It's very hard, on these numbers, to justify Florida State being seeded ahead of Southern Cal.

This is the kind of parsing of details that's supposed to go on in the Committee room.

 

The real question is....will the NC school be permitted to host or will the NCAA event ban prohibit them from doing so.

It would really be hypocritical if they were allowed to host but the NCAA moved the college cup.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Yes NC schools can host. The prohibition doesn't apply to on-campus events.

 

Southern Cal should get a higher seed than fsu, I should think.

 

A few other tidbits on USC. ALL 19 teams faced finished inside top 100 RPI (Washington being lowers at 94) and their two games with the largest margin of victory came against Stanford--3-0 and North Carolina--3-0

 

You must be kidding. FSU should get a higher seed bcz Deyna? She is good. How good we will see. Certainly, the last games what she played have not justified the hype. So UCLA should have a higher seed too? This is just simple ridiculous.

 

UCLA obviously benefited by beating USC at the StubHub Center, which was a neutral site but was officially a USC home game.

 

I just want to add on to what orangecrusader has said. Here is an example. The Atlantic10 came out and let Davidson host a men's conference tourney and explained why it is not so hypocritical nor a conflicting sentiment with the NCAA's. Their release iterated that this particular institution did not violate the expected civil rights protocol and in fact is doing well to try to dissuade it. Davidson, for one, will not be punished like the rest of the "in state" sanction. The conference tourneys and opening round games are seen as a boon for campuses, whereas the College Cup is a marquee event that benefits the state's tourism dollars in an impactful way. I'm sure the hoteliers are feeling it, since amateur sports is far from the only where these sorts of sanctions are being implemented in this hotbed political climate. I hope that because of lost tax revenues, the lawmakers are feeling it too and not just we peons.

 

I can see the committee going with Florida over Florida State for a #1 seed other 3 are easy. West Virginia, Stanford and South Carolina.

My question is will the committee go with the BCS schools like Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Iowa State and Tech Tech over the ROI top teams like Princeton and St. joes.

My guess is yes. BCS will get the nod.

Will a team like Va Tech get squeezed due to a lack wins. 2 good ties.

DePaul as well. Beat Georgetown 4-1. Tied them Who else on the bubble has results like that vs top 10 team like GTown.

I guess we will see what happens at 4pm but it could be bad. Committee will be getting a bunch of calls.

ACC. -7 ND, Clem, UNC, UVa, Duke, FSU, NC St.
Big 10 - 8 - Neb, minn, NW, Rut, OSU, PSU, Wisc, Mich
Pax 12 - 6 - Stan, Cal, USC, UCLA, colo, Utah
Big 12 - 6 - WVU, OU, kan, TCU, Ok St, Tx Tech(Iowa St)
SEC 6 - SC, Florida, Aub, Ark, Missouri, TAMU
WCC - 3 - BYU, Pepperdine, Santa Clara
AAC - 3 - UConn, Memphis, SMU
Big East - 2 -?Georgetown, Marquette

Big 10 had a banner year last year so they get 8. ACC was wild this year with a bunch of crazy results. BC, VT , Miami, Wale and Louisville all were good but league was so spread out so I gave them 7. Pac12 gets the only 6 that deserves it. Sec will probably get benefit of the BCS the most. A&M coach was on tv begging for a spot.
Big 12 has #1 RPI conference which saves them. TCU made a great run and deserve it. But TT and Ok State I'm throwing a bone to them.

I hope I'm wrong with my prediction of BCS power 5 getting the nod.
Loyola Marymount, Princeton, St. Joseph all have a fight.

Princeton beat BC in NCAA
LMU had a great run making sweet 16

30 minutes remaining let the games begin

 

Chris, any comments on DePaul not getting in. They have a better RPI than OKla St and Texas A@m and they won their conference and they beat and tied Georgetown- both games at Georgetown- in fact Georgetown beat Virginia and West Virginia and DePaul beatand tied GT both away games. The game they won was DePaul 4-1 over GT. Something is not right

 

The problem is that unless you are not in one of the Big 5 power conferences you are just not going to get the same kind of consideration if you are a bubble team. There are plenty of other teams that were more deserving then Texas AM, better RPI and SOS, but A&M somehow jumps over them.

 

But I thought the RPI took into consideration the power conference strength of schedule. The RPI was used to take subjectivity out of the equation. Looks like a rigged system. Are the committee members all from power conferences?

 

I'll take a look at, and report back on, what the rationale might have been as to DePaul, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State. It will take a while to pull all the info together.

My computer had Oklahoma State (with reservations) and Iowa State "in" and DePaul (with reservations) and Texas A&M "out." My initial reaction was that the Committee didn't do anything radically bad. Other than the Iowa State/Texas A&M exchange, all the at large selections were what my computer called for.

Use this link for the Committee Structure and Membership.

 

Thanks Chris.

 

OKla St getting in is absolutely wild.

TX A&M made better sense but I could see no way DEPaul was next in line when a team like VT was left on the outside. DePaul RPI was 54... hard to make a case with that RPI.

 

Well, I guess the Big Ten is the best conference now, or at least equal to any other conference (top to bottom).
They got 8 teams in.

This is the 2nd year in a row that the Big Ten was at least a Top 3 conference overall.
Just another reminder that Wisconsin got royally screwed last year, after winning the Big Ten title.

We will see Rose Lavelle and Devon Kerr in this NCAA Tournament.
Two future National Team prospects.

 

Florida getting a #1 seed is crazy.
USC played a tougher schedule overall, in a tougher conference.
Winning your conference tournament matters to this committee, and USC got punished for not having one.

On the bright side, Florida gets to host at least every match until the College Cup (provided they keep winning).
Hopefully those matches turn up on WatchESPN on the SEC Network online.

And BYU got screwed.
#4 seed?

 

Wow. Wasn't that long ago that Michigan was being, in their minds, snubbed.