MLS v CSL

All star games don't mean anything.

 

CSL is at a rather distinct disadvantage to MLS in that AFC only allows 4 foreign players (1 must be AFC) and the average Chinese player isn't very good. Of course, one advantage of the limit on foreign players is that CSL teams are going after "better" foreign players, particularly in the last year or two. They are dumping money into development and given their history with the Olympics, I wouldn't be too shocked if the quality of Chinese players increases relatively quickly.

 

The CSL is officially at 24,238 after the 2016 season. But until there is a global standard for ticket counting there isn't much of a point in comparing exact figures. Any ranking just serves as "ballpark" measurements. MLS claims it now only gives away 9% of tickets for free (down from 30% in 2006) but unless we know how the CSL, Serie A or Ligue 1 handle this aspect of "attendance" it doesn't mean much.

That rule only applies to AFC competitions. Asian leagues can still set the number of foreigners domestically. In fact, the CSL at present allows 4+1 foreigners. One more than the AFC directive.

 

Bringing back the Hawaii invitational that includes China*, Japan and Korea would be nice, but lack of support is the reason it went away.


* China would replace the A-league.

 

CSL attendance and gate income is affected by following facts:
1. Clubs could only open 80% of the capacity of the stadium in matchday for safety reason according to Chinese Laws, and stands for away fans must be seperated with empty stands.
2. season tickes for fans group members and club members are relativelly cheap compare with single game tickes, usually season tickets for big clubs is between 1,500 to 3,000 RMB (215 to 500 USD), while price for single matches is between 100 to 800 RMB (14 to 112 USD)

 

Thanks for that. So would you know how the CSL counts attendance?

- Turnstile
- Tickets sold
- Tickets sold + tickets distributed (i.e. given away for free)

It would be quite interesting to know how various leagues count their attendance and what percentage tickets distributed constitute - if any at all. This article on Arsenal attendance only mentions turnstile vs. tickets sold leading me to believe that tickets given away are not included. I sometimes can't help but feel that emerging leagues inflate their attendance to look good and show progress. Passing a "Big Five" European league like Ligue 1 or Serie A makes for a good story.

 

They use security gates to count attendance numbers, when you check in and go through the gates you heard beeps that means you are counted.

 

I know MLS fans like to take a look at Forbes so here is their take on the CSL:

(Personally I think they overvalue teams in both leagues)

China's Ten Most Valuable Soccer Teams Are Led By Guangzhou Evergrande At $282 Million

And when you consider the number of teams (16 vs. 22) that means even more revenue per CSL club. Not to mention the CSL gets to sign a new deal before the current MLS one expires.

Quality-wise I think MLS still has the edge overall but Guangzhou Evergrande is probably better than the best team in MLS. The next 4-5 clubs in the CSL table are also advancing at fast pace. Considering money only started pouring into the league in 2010 when Evergrande Real Estate started taking interest I think what has been achieved so far is quite notable. In just six years Guangzhou Evergrande turned from a second division team into a two-time Asian champion. It was the first continental title for China in over two decades. And as stated previously, they managed to do it with only 3+1 foreigners so evidently there are some quality domestic players available. Other leading CSL clubs also no longer embarrass themselves in the AFC Champions League, a tournament I rate higher than the CONCACAF version.

While CSL clubs splash on big name foreigners they also focus on youth development. The first mover here again is Guangzhou Evergrande with their USD 185M Evergrande Football School:



In summary, China deserves to be taken seriously.

So turnstile then?

That would be very impressive if true. I think by now the vast majority of sports teams use tickets sold.

 

Some domestic players, sure, but I think you'd be hard pressed to say the average CSL player is on par with the average MLS player. The lack of a cap allows the top clubs in CSL to have most of the best players in the league on their team. As you said, China is dumping a massive amount of money into their academies now so that might change in the future, but for now?

I really struggle with the AFC CL's east/west split. While the size of AFC necessitates the split, a lot of the west's games are pretty unwatchable until you get into the knockout rounds. The East's games are generally pretty good even in the group stages if they are between CSL, J-League, and K-League teams.

CCL is generally crap in the group stages unless it is 2 MLS teams or Costa Rican vs. LigaMX/MLS team. Knockouts are generally more entertaining now with MLS making it out of groups on a regular basis. We'll see what the upcoming format changes has though.

 

Agreed. At present the average MLS player is better than the average CSL player. Like I said, MLS is currently the better league overall. The point is there is some domestic quality in China. This isn't the Indian Super League where just about all of the heavy-lifting is done by the international players.

It will take China at least a decade to improve domestic player quality across the board but that won't stop the top 5-6 clubs from making noise in Asia and perhaps the world stage. Remember, Guangzhou Evergrande has already beaten the record champion of Africa (Al Ahly) and the record champion of CONCACAF (Club America) in the Club World Cup. League parity and quality of the average domestic player make for good message forum arguments but they don't get the international limelight. Big signings (in their prime) and international success do. The CSL has a clear edge there right now.

As someone who regularly watches and attends AFC Champions League matches in the West I think you are being a bit too harsh but yes - the East is better. And the CSL plays in the East (hence my comment).

But what I really want to know is how MLS compares to Iran's PGL. *ducks*

 

Chinese Super League hijacks Atlanta United target

Elswhere, MLS' favorite Italian coach since the Giovinco Euro 2016 debate, Antonio Conte, weighs in on the CSL.

I guess MLS and CSL fans now have something in common. A mutual dislike for Conte.

 

Eh, I say that is 50/50 true. Some teams actually really relied on their domestics this season since most teams were pretty much the same foreigner wise. Kerala Blasters were bottom of the table beginning of November but then the addition of CK Vineeth and Rino Anto helped propel them to the top (Vineeth scoring 5 goals and 2 assists in just 6 games). Teams like Delhi Dynamos, Atletico de Kolkata, and Mumbai City also had Indians who did just as much, if not more, than foreigners such as Kean Lewis, Sena Ralte, Debjit Mujumdar etc.

Then you had the teams at the lower end of the table. Goa had decent foreigners but their Indian recruitment was shoddy. Romeo Fernandes and Mandar Rao Desai were good but playing guys like Sahil Tavora, Keenan Almeida, both who don't even regularly play in the I-League is suicide. Chennaiyin had nothing up front and it got worse when Jeje, arguably their best striker, got injured. Pune City also had nothing despite having one of the better foreign squad in the league. Same with NorthEast United.

 

Fair enough. I do follow the ISL casually (even caught the final on Sunday) but evidently not as closely as you. But the point stands that domestic player development in India is miles away from China. It still lacks basic infrastructure really. Take this year's AFC Champions League qualifying stage where 3+1 applies and Mohun Bagan went under 6:0 against Shandong Luneng. For those who don't know, the I-League is still the officially sanctioned "Division 1" in the country but that will likely change in 2017.

 

This mega push by the CSL is totally because of government backing. Will that exist 3, 5, or even 10 years from now? China is a country with a burgeoning middle class, but also one with entire cities sitting totally empty cause they pumped money into something that couldn't sustain itself. And of course they are famous for undervaluing their currency. This thing could collapse pretty quickly and that is what European observers are predicting(or at least hoping) .

Both the CSL and MLS have the same exact goals and receive about the same scorn from the European press. They are just taking different routes. It is very much a tortoise vs. hare race and we know who won that.

 

Oh ya, it's amazing. Bagan have guys like Sony Norde being paid $300,000 a season to dominate the I-League but put him up against proper players and he is reduced to nothing (same happened in ISL).

Although I am interested in seeing the result if an ISL team came up against Shandong. The ISL team would be able to afford a better head coach than Bagan's and also 4 much better foreigners and maybe at least put in a proper performance.

Also keep in mind that Bengaluru FC, another I-League team, made the final of the AFC Cup and only lost to an Iraqi team 1-0 in Qatar and that to without playing a proper league game since April.

 

Well, you have to remember that government backing in China doesn't carry the same negative connotation that it does it the West. There is a difference in culture to be considered. But I agree with you in principal. The next five years or so are crucial for the CSL to become self-sustaining. If the Guangzhou Evergrande success story can be replicated at 5-7 other clubs then I would say critical mass is within reach.

I noticed Bengaluru's run to the (second-tier) AFC Cup final and that is surely a success story for Indian football this year. Having said that, they did it in the absence of the Kuwaiti clubs that won the competition three years in a row before FIFA suspended the association in 2015. I-League clubs are still a level below Kuwait and two levels below Saudi Arabia/UAE/Qatar.

As for ISL clubs against Chinese opposition, they may not lose 6:0 but still by a significant margin of two or three goals. At least in my opinion. Hopefully we get to find out soon, either in 2018 or 2019.

But let's get back to MLS vs. CSL shall we?

 

I don't think the argument is that Chinese fans will turn on CSL because of government funding, but rather that once Xi Jinping steps down, the CSL might find itself cut off from its benefactors because his replacement might not be interested in soccer.

 

Haha, sorry. Last post on this... you also had the fact that Johor Tanzim were missing to their two best players (the Argentine strikers) for the semi-final against Bengaluru FC. That may have helped a little.

 

I think this Xi Jinping thing is a bit exaggerated. There's no doubt that his influence has put the gas on the pedal, but it's not like the league was static before then.

Xi Jinping became president in March 2013. But the league was already steadily increasing attendance for about 10 years up to that point. The stadium infrastructure has also increasing in conjunction with the build up for 2008 Olympics. Guangzhou Evergrande had already reincarnated itself into a super club going back to 2010. By 2012 we already saw big names like Marcello Lippi and Nicolas Anelka going to China.

This isn't a phenomenon manufactured around the whims of one president. The sport is genuinely popular in China ... probably the most popular team sport. As the Chinese middle class has grown over the past years, it's inevitable that their sports/entertainment sectors were also going to grow.

What I predict is that at some point in the future there will be a correction. Perhaps after the Xi Jinping era ends. But a correction is probably a good thing. It doesn't mean a collapse. Even if they decrease transfer spending by 50% at some point, that still leaves the league in a very robust position.

 

Much of the growth before Xi Jinping was a correction to normal attendance levels after attendance previously collapsed due to a series of match-fixing scandals.

 

Tevez offered a 40 million Euro per year deal with an unnamed CSL club. If that's the kind of money that some owners there have to play with, then we are entering an entirely new world of football.

http://www.marca.com/en/football/international-football/2016/11/20/58320009468aeb14378b4664.html

 

Xi Jinping will likely remain in office until 2022. Given current levels of investment I think that's enough time to create a self-sustaining infrastructure. But yes, the next few years will be crucial. International success at CSL and national team level would of course help.

• The Oscar transfer to Shanghai SIPG is now official for a reported USD 74M.
• Looks like the CFA wants to reduce foreign player quota to 3+1 (from 4+1).

 

It's hard to say which league is better. For a newer league, the CSL is doing very well for itself and focusing mostly on the right things. Between the two countries, Chinese soccer have more potential while American soccer will continue being held back from it's own dysfunction, lack of any organization, no unity, personal greed and delusional plans until someone better is in charge. Currently, American soccer have the better players in the national team mostly thanks to dual citizenship and players playing abroad. It's a completely different story talking about American players who's developed by MLS. Like the CSL, MLS club academies are to new to compare at this moment. The next comparison is the confederations (CONCACAF and AFC). In some people's opinions, CONCACAF is a harder confederation than the AFC. That to me is only half true. I see AFC harder than CONCACAF for league competitions, but weaker during national team competitions compared to CONCACAF. Outside of Mexico and maybe Costa Rica's professional leagues, what other challenging league is there? China faces against harder leagues in the AFC in countries like Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar in it's league competitions. Japan and South Korea's leagues can match Liga MX in quality. The reason I say this because a CSL club won more than one AFC CL title while MLS haven't won one for more than a decade in a one league dominate CONCACAF CL. MLS clubs don't even face Liga MX clubs until the quarterfinals and by then, 2 of the 5 that qualify for the tournament usually reach it. That's usually three MLS clubs that could not beat clubs in weaker leagues. There is some rare seasons when 4 MLS clubs reach the quarterfinals, but it's mostly 2-3 on average.