The standard deviation is crazy huge on Montreal. Hard to believe that some of us have them as high as 1 and some as low as 12.
We have an apple and orange problem--the previously posted table uses rankings from vividox and me based on our Elo and ELO+ ratings, respectively, which are intended mainly to reflect current team strength; but then it uses the HFA rankings from aperfectring that represent projections. It would be more consistent to use the latter's EAP rankings instead. I am not sure how the methodology of Jough matches up. Perhaps we also need another table combining the three sets of points projections: Code: Rank Team alet vivi aper AVG 1 SEA 59.2 60.1 58.5 59.3 2 NYR 56.8 57.1 56.9 56.9 3 SKC 55.8 57.1 55.7 56.2 4 RSL 53.9 54.9 54.2 54.3 5 POR 53.9 53.3 54.0 53.7 6 LAG 52.6 53.6 53.0 53.1 7 MTL 52.5 52.8 53.8 53.0 8 COL 50.7 50.3 50.7 50.6 9 HOU 50.4 50.4 50.3 50.4 10 VAN 47.5 47.1 48.0 47.5 11 SJE 46.8 47.2 46.1 46.7 12 DAL 46.7 45.8 47.2 46.6 13 NER 46.1 45.8 46.8 46.2 14 CHI 46.0 46.3 45.5 45.9 15 PHI 45.4 45.1 45.5 45.3 16 CLB 42.9 43.0 43.0 43.0 17 CHV 29.6 28.4 30.2 29.4 18 TOR 27.6 26.9 28.0 27.5 19 DCU 20.0 19.6 20.7 20.1 The most notable thing here is how close our numbers are from top to bottom, despite three quite different approaches. Of course, most of the points have already been earned by this point of the season, so it makes sense for there to be convergence.
While my model is projections, those projections come heavily from the current standings. At this point in the season, most teams have only ~1/7 of their schedule left. This means that my model becomes much less useful for projected point totals, since those will end up being basically just the standings table. The overall model is heavily based on goal ratio (goals scored / goals allowed), FYI. If the others also are, then they should behave relatively similarly, no matter the way that a game's probabilities are calculated. At this late point in the season, there is little freedom for the differences between the models to show up, at least if the models are doing a decent job of actually modelling the remainder of the season. I'm sure if we all went back to the midpoint of the season, we'd have much different results from each other.
Here's my updated model results. Reminder HFA is a projection for the end of season based on the current standings and probabilistic results of the remaining games. EAP is a projection for the performance of a team over the course of a whole season against average opposition. Code: Team HFA EAP SEA 57.7 54.9 NYR 56.9 55.0 RSL 56.2 57.8 POR 55.2 58.5 SKC 53.7 57.9 MON 52.7 50.0 LAG 52.0 53.7 COL 50.7 51.2 HOU 50.4 47.2 SJE 48.1 39.1 PHI 47.8 45.7 VAN 46.2 49.0 NER 45.9 52.9 FCD 45.3 43.8 CLB 45.1 45.8 CHI 44.9 41.3 TOR 29.3 33.8 CHV 28.5 27.9 DCU 19.7 22.0 Playoff positions: East: NYR SKC MON HOU PHI West: SEA RSL POR LAG COL The east is still quite tight, and should be amazing to watch, especially for me since I have no real vested interest in it. The west in the current standings looks closer than it actually is. San Jose is only 1 point out, but they have played an extra game, so have less time to make up the gap. No one has locked up a playoff spot yet, and we are VERY late in the season for that to be the case now.
San Jose faces Colorado and LA (and Dallas) to finish the season. So the Quakes do control their own destiny. I think. The permutations are always so complex.
They are still counting on some of Colorado's and LA's results. If San Jose wins out, they have 53 points. If Colorado loses to San Jose and wins out otherwise, they have 54. Same with LA if they lose to San Jose and win out otherwise. This says to me that San Jose doesn't entirely hold their destiny in their own hands. I'm not pronouncing San Jose dead, far from it. However, they are still on the outside looking in, and hoping some results from games not their own go their way.
Okay - thanks for that. I guess it wasn't really that complicated. Just checked both the schedules for the Rapids and Galaxy. The Rapids end the year with a home-away series with Vancouver (which is both odd and interesting). Seattle has Montreal (home) and Chivas, but end at Seattle.
SCS gives SJE a 99.7% chance if they win out, so the Monte Carlo also found the combination that would keep the Quakes out. (Probably the same one(s) aperfectring found)
Yeah, but the "winning out" is the real trouble there, especially with the road game to LA. My model came up with an ~4% chance of that happening. (42% win v Colorado, 19% @ LA, 49% v Dallas) It will get very interesting, though, especially if they win against Colorado.
Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 09/30. Code: Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points 1 SEA 120 1 SEA 58.5 2 POR 114 2 NYR 57.0 3 NYR 113 3 RSL 56.2 4 RSL 110 4 POR 55.1 5 SJE 110 5 SKC 53.4 6 COL 109 6 MTL 52.6 7 LAG 107 7 LAG 51.6 8 HOU 106 8 HOU 50.8 9 SKC 105 9 COL 50.5 10 MTL 101 10 SJE 48.8 11 PHI 99 11 PHI 48.1 12 VAN 99 12 VAN 45.6 13 CHI 99 13 CLB 45.4 14 CLB 98 14 CHI 45.2 15 NER 97 15 NER 45.2 16 DAL 94 16 DAL 44.5 17 TOR 79 17 TOR 28.7 18 CHV 75 18 CHV 28.1 19 DCU 65 19 DCU 19.0 The average number of games played per team is now 30.2 (K=6.62), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.638 (H=28). Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 09/30. Code: Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall 1 LAG 103.5 1 CHV 119.7 1 CHV 104.4 2 CHV 103.0 2 NER 116.5 2 DAL 102.8 3 RSL 102.9 3 VAN 113.0 3 VAN 102.3 4 DCU 102.6 4 SEA 110.2 4 LAG 101.6 5 SJE 102.1 5 DAL 109.8 5 COL 101.4 6 DAL 101.8 6 TOR 109.0 6 RSL 101.4 7 POR 101.0 7 COL 107.0 7 SJE 101.4 8 VAN 100.9 8 SKC 106.0 8 POR 101.0 9 COL 100.7 9 MTL 103.2 9 DCU 100.9 10 HOU 100.0 10 CHI 101.8 10 SEA 100.5 11 CLB 99.8 11 POR 101.0 11 TOR 99.5 12 PHI 99.1 12 SJE 94.0 12 CLB 99.0 13 SEA 98.8 13 NYR 91.3 13 MTL 98.8 14 TOR 98.5 14 CLB 90.3 14 CHI 98.1 15 MTL 98.0 15 DCU 88.3 15 HOU 97.9 16 CHI 97.6 16 LAG 87.5 16 NER 97.9 17 NYR 97.0 17 PHI 87.5 17 PHI 97.7 18 SKC 95.8 18 RSL 85.0 18 SKC 97.0 19 NER 95.4 19 HOU 82.0 19 NYR 96.5
In a special mid-weekend report! I am sitting around watching youtube videos when I see the results from today, and think, "wow, that just made it extraordinarily uncertain who would be the supporters shield winner". Here's the HFA update, which is much easier for me to put together. A full update will come early next week. Code: Tm HFA SEA 56.5 NYR 56.0 SKC 55.6 POR 55.2 RSL 55.2 COL 52.1 LAG 52.0 HOU 51.7 MON 51.7 SJE 48.0 PHI 46.9 CHI 46.7 VAN 46.2 NER 46.0 FCD 45.5 CLB 43.5 TOR 29.4 CHV 28.6 DCU 18.2 At this point in the season, I'd say that the expected deviation exceeds 1 pt, simply because there are so few games left that a single result could change it drastically. This means that there are realistically 5 (five) teams currently in the running for supporters shield. The only team among those which may significantly change is Portland, which plays at Vancouver tomorrow (Sunday). This season officially went from "that's a little unusual" to "what the fsck is happening here" status today. Usually at this point in the season, the supporters shield is either already won, or might as well be. But no, after this weekend, we will still have 4 teams, and possibly a 5th, which could all realistically win it. If Portland happens to win tomorrow (I hope they do), their projected point total should go up by nearly two points, but RSL and Portland have a game against each other meaning that RSL still would pretty much hold their destiny in their own hands, and should still be considered in the race. On the bright side, for sanity's sake, Columbus and Dallas pretty much ended their playoff hopes with their results today. While not mathematically eliminated yet, they are heavily relying on other teams' results to keep their chances alive. I'm going to go crawl back in my bottle of bourbon, because at least that acts somewhat sanely.
Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 10/06. Code: Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points 1 SEA 114 1 SEA 57.0 2 POR 114 2 NYR 56.0 3 NYR 113 3 SKC 55.5 4 COL 111 4 RSL 55.2 5 RSL 110 5 POR 55.0 6 SKC 108 6 LAG 52.5 7 LAG 108 7 COL 52.0 8 SJE 108 8 HOU 52.0 9 HOU 107 9 MTL 51.6 10 PHI 102 10 PHI 49.1 11 MTL 100 11 SJE 48.6 12 CHI 100 12 CHI 46.9 13 VAN 99 13 NER 45.6 14 NER 97 14 VAN 45.1 15 CLB 96 15 DAL 44.9 16 DAL 95 16 CLB 43.7 17 TOR 78 17 TOR 28.0 18 CHV 77 18 CHV 27.7 19 DCU 63 19 DCU 17.6 The average number of games played per team is now 31.2 (K=6.42), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.637 (H=27). Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 10/06. Code: Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall 1 CHV 103.7 1 VAN 121.0 1 CHV 104.1 2 DAL 103.0 2 CHV 112.0 2 DAL 102.6 3 SJE 102.0 3 COL 111.0 3 VAN 102.2 4 POR 101.8 4 NER 106.3 4 LAG 101.4 5 DCU 101.7 5 CHI 104.3 5 SJE 101.4 6 LAG 101.7 6 SEA 104.0 6 DCU 101.3 7 RSL 101.6 7 NYR 103.5 7 RSL 101.2 8 SEA 100.5 8 TOR 100.0 8 COL 101.1 9 VAN 100.4 9 SKC 99.7 9 POR 100.9 10 COL 100.2 10 PHI 99.3 10 SEA 100.9 11 TOR 99.6 11 DAL 98.3 11 TOR 99.6 12 CLB 99.4 12 LAG 98.3 12 CLB 99.3 13 MTL 99.4 13 CLB 97.0 13 MTL 99.1 14 HOU 99.0 14 DCU 96.7 14 CHI 98.1 15 CHI 97.5 15 MTL 96.3 15 HOU 97.9 16 PHI 97.5 16 SJE 95.7 16 NER 97.9 17 NER 97.1 17 RSL 95.5 17 PHI 97.6 18 SKC 96.6 18 POR 91.3 18 SKC 96.9 19 NYR 96.1 19 HOU 85.7 19 NYR 96.5
Seattle getting destroyed by Colorado really knocked them silly (that one game set them back 28 points). They now share first with SKC. The top of the ratings is crowded with Seattle, KC, and LA within one point of each other and RSL, NY, and Colorado not far behind. At the bottom of the table, DC is threatening to dip down into the 1200s. Sounders are still projected as SS winners, but only by 1.19 points, and SKC is projected to finish over New York after they squandered points against New England at home this weekend. And on top of all of that, RSL and Portland are still projected to finish within 2.3 points of Seattle, meaning that right now, there are really five teams still in the SS race. Basically, my ratings are saying what the standing are already telling you: these next three weeks are going to be insane.
Alright, here's the full update. Reminder, HFA is a projection based on the rest of the season + current standings. EAP is an overall "strength of team" measure. Code: Team HFA EAP SEA 56.5 51.3 NYR 56.0 54.7 SKC 55.6 58.4 RSL 55.2 57.4 POR 55.1 58.1 LAG 53.0 57.2 COL 52.1 54.3 HOU 51.7 47.9 MON 51.6 49.2 SJE 48.0 39.1 PHI 46.9 45.6 CHI 46.7 43.7 NER 46.0 52.7 VAN 45.5 48.9 FCD 45.5 43.9 CLB 43.5 45.0 TOR 29.4 34.0 CHV 27.8 25.6 DCU 18.2 20.9 Playoff projections East: NYR SKC HOU MON PHI West: SEA RSL POR LAG COL This weekend almost completely destroyed any confidence in any team winning the Supporters Shield. I see 5 teams with a chance for it, 3 of those with a good chance. The playoffs are much closer to being set, but the East still has some murkiness. We are 3 weeks from the end of the season, and only 1 team has officially qualified for the playoffs. This season is bananas.
Here are the 2013 MLS BS Points Predictions for 10/07. Code: Rank Team alet vivi aper AVG 1 SEA 57.0 57.4 56.5 57.0 2 NYR 56.0 56.1 56.0 56.0 3 SKC 55.5 56.2 55.6 55.8 4 RSL 55.2 55.7 55.2 55.4 5 POR 55.0 55.2 55.1 55.1 6 LAG 52.5 53.0 53.0 52.8 7 COL 52.0 52.4 52.1 52.2 8 HOU 52.0 51.9 51.7 51.9 9 MTL 51.6 51.6 51.6 51.6 10 SJE 48.6 48.5 48.0 48.4 11 PHI 49.1 49.0 46.9 48.3 12 CHI 46.9 47.2 46.7 46.9 13 NER 45.6 45.6 46.0 45.7 14 VAN 45.1 44.7 45.5 45.1 15 DAL 44.9 44.4 45.5 44.9 16 CLB 43.7 43.8 43.5 43.7 17 TOR 28.0 27.6 29.4 28.3 18 CHV 27.7 27.0 27.8 27.5 19 DCU 17.6 17.0 18.2 17.6
Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 10/13. Code: Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points 1 POR 116 1 POR 56.3 2 NYR 113 2 NYR 55.9 3 RSL 111 3 SKC 55.6 4 SKC 110 4 RSL 55.2 5 COL 109 5 SEA 53.9 6 SJE 109 6 LAG 52.6 7 SEA 108 7 HOU 51.2 8 LAG 108 8 COL 50.9 9 HOU 106 9 SJE 50.0 10 CHI 103 10 MTL 49.7 11 VAN 103 11 CHI 49.0 12 PHI 101 12 PHI 48.6 13 NER 101 13 NER 47.8 14 MTL 97 14 VAN 47.5 15 CLB 96 15 CLB 43.5 16 DAL 91 16 DAL 43.2 17 TOR 78 17 TOR 28.1 18 CHV 77 18 CHV 27.6 19 DCU 63 19 DCU 17.4 The average number of games played per team is now 31.9 (K=6.27), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.632 (H=26). Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 10/13. Code: Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall 1 CHV 103.3 1 CHV 113.5 1 CHV 103.9 2 DAL 102.3 2 VAN 109.0 2 DAL 102.7 3 LAG 101.7 3 DAL 108.5 3 DCU 101.6 4 SEA 101.3 4 DCU 108.0 4 VAN 101.6 5 DCU 101.2 5 NYR 104.5 5 LAG 101.2 6 RSL 101.2 6 MTL 104.3 6 SEA 101.2 7 SJE 101.2 7 PHI 103.5 7 COL 101.1 8 VAN 101.2 8 COL 103.0 8 SJE 101.1 9 COL 101.0 9 CLB 101.0 9 RSL 100.9 10 POR 100.9 10 TOR 100.0 10 POR 100.5 11 TOR 99.8 11 SEA 99.5 11 TOR 99.8 12 CLB 99.4 12 SJE 99.5 12 CLB 99.5 13 MTL 99.0 13 RSL 96.5 13 MTL 99.4 14 HOU 98.8 14 LAG 96.0 14 HOU 98.2 15 CHI 98.3 15 NER 96.0 15 CHI 98.1 16 NER 97.9 16 CHI 95.5 16 PHI 98.0 17 SKC 97.8 17 POR 94.0 17 NER 97.8 18 PHI 97.6 18 HOU 88.0 18 SKC 96.8 19 NYR 96.1 19 SKC 82.0 19 NYR 96.6
The top of the ratings are so topsy turvy it's insane. SKC is only at +4 for the month, but is in first, LA is at -9 in the last month but at #2, Portland is climbing but not quite at the summit, Seattle is crashing harder than a Keanu Reeves movie, and Portland is currently predicted as the SS winner. Barely. Really though, I think with Seattle's loss tonight, the SS race is down to Portland, Salt Lake, New York, and Kansas City.
Updated numbers. HFA is a projection for the remainder of the season, EAP is a strength estimate of the team. Code: Tm HFA EAP POR 56.3 58.5 NYR 56.0 54.7 SKC 55.4 58.1 RSL 55.2 57.4 SEA 53.7 47.9 LAG 53.0 57.2 HOU 51.1 47.8 COL 50.8 53.3 MON 49.8 48.3 SJE 49.5 40.0 CHI 48.7 44.6 NER 48.0 53.3 VAN 47.7 51.1 PHI 46.5 45.6 FCD 43.7 43.3 CLB 43.5 45.0 TOR 29.4 34.0 CHV 27.8 25.6 DCU 17.8 21.5 East Conference Playoff Teams: NYR SKC HOU MON CHI West Conference Playoff Teams: POR RSL SEA LAG COL The teams in the west just shuffled around their positions a bit, while those in the east were actually changed, with Chicago leapfrogging Philly. Nothing can really be said very strongly on this, though. Still no teams in the west have clinched, which means that with 2 games left for each team (LA can't clinch with their game in hand), we still have no teams which have actually made the playoffs there yet. Some good news there, though, is that one more team in the west was eliminated, so it is only 7 teams vying for the 5 playoff spots right now. In the supporters shield, New York holds their path in their own hands. Portland can tie them, but NY would win on the first tiebreaker. It is really looking like whoever between NYR, POR, RSL, and SKC can win their last two games will actually clinch it. POR and RSL face each other next week, and that is likely going to be one hell of a game, and will significantly impact the SS race, no matter which way it goes. So much on the line there, and all of the POR/RSL games have been ridiculous this year. Finally, this season is bananas.
Here are the 2013 MLS BS Points Predictions for 10/14. Code: Rank Team alet vivi aper AVG 1 POR 56.3 56.7 56.3 56.4 2 NYR 55.9 56.1 56.0 56.0 3 SKC 55.6 56.1 55.4 55.7 4 RSL 55.2 55.6 55.2 55.3 5 SEA 53.9 53.9 53.7 53.8 6 LAG 52.6 53.2 53.0 52.9 7 HOU 51.2 51.4 51.1 51.2 8 COL 50.9 50.9 50.8 50.9 9 SJE 50.0 50.0 49.5 49.8 10 MTL 49.7 49.7 49.8 49.7 11 CHI 49.0 49.2 48.7 49.0 12 NER 47.8 47.8 48.0 47.9 13 PHI 48.6 48.3 46.5 47.8 14 VAN 47.5 47.5 47.7 47.6 15 CLB 43.5 43.6 43.5 43.5 16 DAL 43.2 42.9 43.7 43.3 17 TOR 28.1 27.7 29.4 28.4 18 CHV 27.6 27.0 27.8 27.5 19 DCU 17.4 17.1 17.8 17.4 Four teams within 1.1 projected points vying for the Supporters' Shield. Three teams within 1.2 projected points vying for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Bananas, indeed!
Lots of numbers flying around right now, so I'm going to update before today's games. Portland - RSL had huge repercussions on the Supporter Shield race. At this point, if New York wins out, it's theirs, and if they drop any points, SKC can claim it with a win in Philadelphia. If they both drop points, it's a bouquet toss and the maids' names are Portland, Salt Lake, and Los Angeles. My projected points total has SKC edging out NY by less than half a point. I now direct you to a number I didn't think I would ever see in my model. Seattle Sounders FC have moved -102 rating points in last month. Everyone knows Seattle has tanked in the last month, but to see it translated in numbers like that is, to me at least, incredible. If Montreal hadn't come from behind on Philadelphia yesterday, their movement in the last month would have looked similarly. Alright, so, we're all a fan of sportsclubstats.com, right? Me too. The one thing I'm not a fan of is all games are weighted the same way in the estimation. With the 50/50 method, both teams have a 1/3 chance to win, lose, or draw. With the weighted method, the model uses the average home win/lose/draw percentage over the last year. Well, that's really not practical. If, say, a very strong RSL side is hosting a very weak Chivas side in the last game of the season (wink wink), we would expect RSL to win that game. That is to say, using the average home performance over the last year doesn't really give you a good measure when a strong team hosts a weak team or a weak team hosts a strong team. Well, in my Elo rater, I come up with estimated win/lose/draw percentages for all the remaining games and add them up for the points predicted exhibit. So, if I run a Monte Carlo estimation using these game-to-game percentages rather than a flat average, I get a much more accurate picture of what my ratings are telling me the outcome will be. Now, there are a few limitations here. I'm not as good of a programmer as Ken from SCS is. His model, overall, is bigger and better, all the graphs that pop up when you highlight numbers is something I simply can't replicate. Also, he runs his model for 10B iterations, whereas mine bogs down at around 100,000 (he uses Python, I use VBA, there is a big difference in performance there). So I really just look at my numbers as supplementary to his - kind of an indicator of which way those probabilities skew given the remaining schedule. Here are my (rough) estimations using 10,000 trials: Specifically looking at the SS numbers, I'm a few percent higher/lower than SCS on all of them due to strength of schedule. In particular, I have RSL at 10.9% (remember they host Chivas at home - a game they *should* win) whereas SCS has them at 8.3% using the weighted average method. That difference is solely due to using a expected outcome based off of rating and relative strength rather than a running average. Anyway, just one more way to look at possible outcomes that I thought I'd share.
Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 10/20. Code: Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points 1 NYR 116 1 NYR 57.9 2 POR 115 2 SKC 56.1 3 RSL 115 3 POR 55.5 4 SKC 114 4 RSL 55.4 5 SJE 110 5 LAG 53.0 6 LAG 108 6 SEA 52.7 7 COL 108 7 COL 52.0 8 CHI 105 8 MTL 50.2 9 SEA 104 9 SJE 50.0 10 HOU 103 10 CHI 49.8 11 VAN 102 11 HOU 49.6 12 NER 101 12 NER 49.1 13 PHI 101 13 PHI 47.5 14 MTL 97 14 VAN 46.7 15 DAL 94 15 DAL 44.7 16 CLB 93 16 CLB 42.6 17 TOR 77 17 CHV 27.6 18 CHV 76 18 TOR 27.4 19 DCU 61 19 DCU 17.1 The average number of games played per team is now 32.9 (K=6.07), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.637 (H=27). Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 10/20. Code: Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall 1 CHV 103.3 1 CHI 143.0 1 CHV 104.0 2 DCU 102.6 2 DAL 137.0 2 DAL 102.4 3 VAN 102.3 3 LAG 131.0 3 DCU 101.9 4 SEA 102.2 4 COL 129.0 4 VAN 101.7 5 RSL 102.1 5 SKC 128.0 5 SEA 101.5 6 SJE 102.0 6 NER 120.0 6 COL 101.2 7 DAL 101.4 7 CHV 115.0 7 LAG 101.2 8 TOR 100.8 8 MTL 104.0 8 SJE 101.0 9 CLB 100.6 9 POR 103.0 9 POR 100.6 10 POR 100.5 10 HOU 88.0 10 RSL 100.6 11 COL 100.3 11 PHI 87.0 11 CLB 99.9 12 LAG 100.3 12 SEA 81.0 12 TOR 99.9 13 MTL 99.4 13 VAN 81.0 13 MTL 99.5 14 HOU 98.8 14 NYR 78.0 14 HOU 98.5 15 PHI 98.5 15 DCU 76.0 15 PHI 98.1 16 NER 97.0 16 CLB 74.0 16 CHI 97.9 17 NYR 96.7 17 TOR 70.0 17 NER 97.7 18 CHI 96.5 18 SJE 67.0 18 SKC 96.4 19 SKC 95.4 19 RSL 49.0 19 NYR 96.1
Something just feels wrong about Portland having a strength of schedule over 100 for their game against Chivas. I mean, I know why it is showing up as that, but still feels wrong.