MLS Power Rankings: 2013

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Fiosfan, Mar 6, 2013.

  1. aletheist

    aletheist Member

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 09/02.
    Code:
    Rank Team  ELO+  Rank Team Points
     1  RSL  118   1  RSL  57.8
     2  LAG  116   2  LAG  56.8
     3  SEA  113   3  SEA  55.5
     4  POR  109   4  MTL  54.6
     5  SKC  107   5  SKC  52.9
     6  COL  107   6  NYR  52.4
     7  MTL  106   7  POR  51.8
     8  NYR  106   8  HOU  50.9
     9  HOU  105   9  PHI  48.7
    10  CHI  103  10  NER  48.4
    11  PHI  102  11  COL  48.2
    12  NER  100  12  DAL  47.4
    13  DAL  100  13  CHI  47.2
    14  VAN  100  14  VAN  46.0
    15  SJE   98  15  SJE  43.3
    16  CLB   86  16  CLB  37.7
    17  TOR   81  17  TOR  30.6
    18  CHV   80  18  CHV  30.1
    19  DCU   63  19  DCU  20.6
    
    The average number of games played per team is now 26.1 (K=7.66), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.645 (H=29).

    Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 09/02.
    Code:
    Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall
     1  POR  104.5   1  VAN  114.5   1  CHV  104.2
     2  CHV  104.3   2  COL  109.3   2  SJE  102.6
     3  LAG  104.0   3  CHV  103.9   3  DAL  102.4
     4  SJE  103.5   4  DAL  103.9   4  VAN  102.4
     5  DAL  102.0   5  CLB  103.5   5  COL  101.8
     6  SEA  101.9   6  CHI  102.6   6  POR  101.6
     7  DCU  101.7   7  MTL  102.4   7  SEA  101.3
     8  RSL  101.0   8  RSL  100.0   8  DCU  101.1
     9  COL   99.9   9  TOR   99.9   9  LAG  101.0
    10  HOU   99.7  10  SEA   99.7  10  RSL  100.8
    11  TOR   98.8  11  PHI   99.4  11  CLB   99.9
    12  CLB   98.7  12  DCU   99.3  12  TOR   99.0
    13  VAN   98.7  13  SJE   99.1  13  MTL   98.1
    14  NER   97.8  14  NYR   96.9  14  CHI   97.7
    15  SKC   97.7  15  NER   95.1  15  PHI   97.7
    16  PHI   97.2  16  SKC   93.4  16  HOU   97.6
    17  NYR   96.7  17  POR   92.1  17  NER   97.2
    18  MTL   96.6  18  HOU   91.9  18  NYR   96.8
    19  CHI   96.0  19  LAG   91.4  19  SKC   96.8
    
     
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  2. Fiosfan

    Fiosfan Member+

    Mar 21, 2010
    New York
    Club:
    New York City FC
    Country:
    United States
  3. vividox

    vividox Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 10, 2005
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    #153 vividox, Sep 3, 2013
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2013
    LA has surged to the top of the standings with RSL in close tow, but RSL is still leading by half a point on the end of season prediction. New York is starting to plummet, despite a home win against DCU this weekend, and Portland's 1-3-3 record in the last seven games has them treading water.

    Not a lot else for me to say here.

    2013.09.01.png
     
  4. Jough

    Jough Member+

    Jul 30, 2007
    Kansas City
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Numbers seem a bit more reasonable this week. Colorado still holding on to their 2 spot, but maybe not for long. Seattle and LA both climbing, Salt Lake City retakes #1, Portland in free fall after only 6 points from 8 games. New England perhaps still a little high?

    week28table.gif
     
  5. vividox

    vividox Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 10, 2005
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    New York and Montreal with some huge jumps this week. Might come back later and write more, but I gotta scram.

    2013.09.08.png
     
  6. aletheist

    aletheist Member

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 09/09.
    Code:
    Rank Team  ELO+  Rank Team Points
     1  SEA  117   1  SEA  57.8
     2  RSL  116   2  MTL  57.5
     3  LAG  112   3  RSL  57.4
     4  POR  111   4  NYR  55.1
     5  COL  111   5  SKC  54.2
     6  MTL  110   6  LAG  54.2
     7  NYR  110   7  POR  52.8
     8  SKC  109   8  COL  50.7
     9  DAL  103   9  DAL  48.7
    10  SJE  102  10  PHI  47.5
    11  CHI  100  11  HOU  47.0
    12  PHI   99  12  NER  46.4
    13  HOU   97  13  CHI  45.9
    14  NER   96  14  SJE  45.0
    15  VAN   96  15  VAN  44.4
    16  CLB   86  16  CLB  38.7
    17  CHV   82  17  CHV  30.8
    18  TOR   81  18  TOR  30.1
    19  DCU   62  19  DCU  20.1
    
    The average number of games played per team is now 27.3 (K=7.34), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.649 (H=30).

    Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 09/09.
    Code:
    Rank Team  Past  Rank Team Future  Rank Team Overall
     1  CHV  103.8   1  VAN  115.4   1  CHV  104.5
     2  LAG  103.4   2  DAL  110.3   2  VAN  103.3
     3  POR  103.0   3  SEA  108.9   3  SJE  102.8
     4  SJE  102.6   4  CHV  108.2   4  DAL  102.7
     5  DCU  102.0   5  COL  104.2   5  COL  102.0
     6  COL  101.5   6  SJE  103.3   6  POR  102.0
     7  RSL  101.5   7  CLB  102.3   7  LAG  101.9
     8  DAL  100.7   8  RSL  101.8   8  RSL  101.5
     9  VAN  100.1   9  CHI   98.6   9  SEA  101.4
    10  TOR  100.0  10  POR   98.0  10  DCU  100.5
    11  HOU   99.7  11  NER   97.3  11  CLB   99.4
    12  SEA   99.2  12  SKC   97.3  12  TOR   98.8
    13  CLB   98.8  13  LAG   95.9  13  HOU   97.9
    14  PHI   98.3  14  MTL   95.9  14  PHI   97.6
    15  MTL   97.9  15  DCU   94.9  15  MTL   97.4
    16  NYR   97.4  16  PHI   94.7  16  CHI   97.3
    17  CHI   96.9  17  TOR   94.3  17  NER   96.9
    18  NER   96.7  18  HOU   91.1  18  SKC   96.1
    19  SKC   95.8  19  NYR   89.0  19  NYR   95.9
    
     
  7. Jough

    Jough Member+

    Jul 30, 2007
    Kansas City
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Numbers shaking out well this week, with the possible exception of New York. Impossible team to figure out, seems like they're playing well and then lose to Columbus, draw with Philly, lose to Chivas, then bounce right back with some wins. Still sandwhiched between New England and Chicago, but those two teams are trending down and NY is, once more, on the rise, so who knows what'll happen against Toronto next week. Kansas City back to winning ways, Colorado stops their slide and Seattle and Montreal jumping up the table.

    week29table.gif
     
  8. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Jul 13, 2011
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Here's my updated numbers. Reminder, the first column accounts for current points earned, and future schedule. The second column is the expected performance of the team over the course of a full season against an average MLS opponent.

    Code:
    Tm  HFA  EAP
    RSL 57.6 60.4
    SEA 57.0 54.0
    MON 57.0 53.8
    NYR 54.8 53.3
    LAG 54.3 55.3
    SKC 54.2 58.7
    POR 53.2 58.0
    COL 50.5 51.9
    FCD 49.1 46.8
    PHI 47.3 45.7
    NER 47.3 53.7
    HOU 46.9 42.7
    VAN 45.8 47.6
    CHI 45.3 42.0
    SJE 44.3 36.9
    CLB 39.3 40.3
    CHV 31.4 29.7
    TOR 30.7 31.7
    DCU 21.5 21.7
    Using the first column, the expected playoff teams are as follows:
    RSL, SEA, LAG, POR, COL
    MON, NYR, SKC, PHI, NER

    I see nothing too far out about any of this. Houston is just barely on the outside looking in, but is close enough that it really is a tossup between them and PHI/NER.

    In case it interests people, here's the probabilities the first column model comes up with for this week's games.
    Code:
    Home Away HW%  Tie% AW%
    TOR  CHI  45.4 26.5 28.0
    SEA  RSL  48.4 24.5 27.1
    MON  CLB  59.3 21.7 19.0
    NYR  TOR  62.2 21.7 16.2
    PHI  HOU  52.8 24.5 22.7
    CHI  NER  45.0 26.2 28.8
    COL  FCD  54.2 24.0 21.7
    CHV  POR  36.8 26.3 37.0
    SJE  VAN  46.5 25.4 28.2
    DCU  LAG  33.1 27.4 39.5
    Interestingly, but only slightly surprisingly, the model predicts two road teams as being at least slight favorites to win. That almost never happens in the model, because HFA is rather strong. Considering the hosting and visiting teams in each case, it isn't overly surprising, but I found it interesting.
     
  9. Fiosfan

    Fiosfan Member+

    Mar 21, 2010
    New York
    Club:
    New York City FC
    Country:
    United States
  10. Jough

    Jough Member+

    Jul 30, 2007
    Kansas City
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Took a minute to see what happened if I averaged all the rankings folks are generating here, and I've got to say, it looks pretty good. Let's just call em BS Rankings.

    bsratingsweek29.gif
     
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  11. aletheist

    aletheist Member

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Is there any other kind? :D

    What (if any) significance should we attach to the fact that three of the four sources for BS Rankings are SKC supporters?
     
    fuzzx and Jough repped this.
  12. vividox

    vividox Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 10, 2005
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    You get bad results when making conclusions based off of a small sample size. ;)[/stats nerd]
     
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  13. aletheist

    aletheist Member

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 09/15.
    Code:
    Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points
     1  SEA  119   1  SEA  59.2
     2  RSL  114   2  RSL  56.4
     3  POR  112   3  NYR  55.7
     4  NYR  111   4  MTL  54.7
     5  COL  111   5  SKC  53.9
     6  LAG  110   6  LAG  53.4
     7  SKC  106   7  POR  52.5
     8  MTL  104   8  COL  51.7
     9  HOU  104   9  HOU  49.9
    10  CHI  104  10  DAL  47.5
    11  SJE  102  11  CHI  47.4
    12  DAL  100  12  PHI  45.5
    13  VAN   98  13  NER  45.3
    14  NER   96  14  VAN  44.9
    15  PHI   94  15  SJE  44.2
    16  CLB   90  16  CLB  41.4
    17  CHV   81  17  CHV  30.3
    18  TOR   79  18  TOR  29.0
    19  DCU   65  19  DCU  20.3
    
    The average number of games played per team is now 28.3 (K=7.06), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.647 (H=29).

    Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 09/15.
    Code:
    Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall
     1  LAG  103.0   1  CHV  114.2   1  CHV  104.4
     2  POR  103.0   2  VAN  111.8   2  VAN  102.9
     3  RSL  103.0   3  COL  111.6   3  DAL  102.8
     4  CHV  102.8   4  SEA  111.6   4  SJE  102.6
     5  DAL  101.9   5  SJE  109.0   5  LAG  101.9
     6  SJE  101.5   6  DAL  106.7   6  COL  101.8
     7  DCU  101.2   7  MTL  102.0   7  POR  101.7
     8  VAN  101.0   8  CHI  101.2   8  RSL  101.5
     9  HOU  100.6   9  NYR   98.8   9  SEA  101.1
    10  TOR  100.6  10  PHI   97.8  10  DCU  100.5
    11  CLB  100.1  11  SKC   97.3  11  CLB   99.3
    12  COL  100.1  12  DCU   97.2  12  TOR   98.9
    13  SEA   98.4  13  LAG   96.5  13  MTL   98.0
    14  NER   98.0  14  POR   95.8  14  PHI   97.9
    15  PHI   98.0  15  CLB   94.6  15  HOU   97.7
    16  MTL   97.0  16  NER   94.0  16  NER   97.3
    17  CHI   96.3  17  RSL   92.8  17  CHI   97.2
    18  SKC   96.3  18  TOR   88.8  18  SKC   96.5
    19  NYR   95.5  19  HOU   84.2  19  NYR   96.0
    
     
  14. Jough

    Jough Member+

    Jul 30, 2007
    Kansas City
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    A bit of a crazy week. Seattle not quite at the top yet, but Montreal and RSL trending down while Seattle trending up, so unless they really stumble, next week will likely see them at the top. Chivas playing better than half of the teams in the East right now, despite having a lock on last place in the West... New York moving up quick as well. Looking forward to the BS rankings this week.

    week30table.gif
     
  15. JoeCelt

    JoeCelt Member+

    Jul 7, 2012
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Country:
    Bosnia-Herzegovina
  16. JoeCelt

    JoeCelt Member+

    Jul 7, 2012
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Country:
    Bosnia-Herzegovina
  17. aletheist

    aletheist Member

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 09/22.
    Code:
    Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points
     1  SEA  120   1  SEA  59.2
     2  POR  114   2  NYR  56.8
     3  NYR  112   3  SKC  55.8
     4  SKC  110   4  POR  53.9
     5  LAG  109   5  RSL  53.9
     6  COL  109   6  LAG  52.6
     7  RSL  107   7  MTL  52.5
     8  SJE  106   8  HOU  50.7
     9  HOU  104   9  COL  50.4
    10  VAN  103  10  VAN  47.5
    11  MTL  100  11  SJE  46.8
    12  CHI  100  12  DAL  46.7
    13  DAL   99  13  NER  46.1
    14  NER   97  14  CHI  46.0
    15  PHI   94  15  PHI  45.4
    16  CLB   93  16  CLB  42.9
    17  CHV   79  17  CHV  29.6
    18  TOR   77  18  TOR  27.6
    19  DCU   67  19  DCU  20.0
    
    The average number of games played per team is now 29.3 (K=6.83), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.646 (H=29).

    Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 09/22.
    Code:
    Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall
     1  CHV  104.0   1  CHV  109.0   1  CHV  104.6
     2  DAL  103.4   2  COL  108.0   2  DAL  102.8
     3  LAG  102.6   3  SEA  107.7   3  VAN  102.4
     4  SJE  102.6   4  MTL  106.5   4  SJE  102.2
     5  RSL  102.5   5  NER  106.2   5  RSL  102.1
     6  POR  102.1   6  VAN  106.0   6  COL  101.9
     7  DCU  102.0   7  NYR  105.3   7  LAG  101.9
     8  VAN  101.8   8  CLB  100.8   8  POR  101.5
     9  COL  101.1   9  DAL   99.4   9  SEA  100.9
    10  TOR  100.4  10  SJE   99.0  10  DCU  100.4
    11  SEA   99.5  11  RSL   98.8  11  TOR   99.2
    12  HOU   98.9  12  PHI   98.6  12  CLB   99.1
    13  CLB   98.8  13  LAG   98.0  13  MTL   98.4
    14  CHI   97.8  14  POR   97.8  14  PHI   97.9
    15  PHI   97.8  15  CHI   96.8  15  HOU   97.8
    16  MTL   96.6  16  SKC   96.2  16  CHI   97.6
    17  SKC   96.1  17  HOU   91.4  17  NER   97.3
    18  NER   95.7  18  DCU   91.2  18  SKC   96.1
    19  NYR   94.7  19  TOR   90.3  19  NYR   95.9
    
     
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  18. Jough

    Jough Member+

    Jul 30, 2007
    Kansas City
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    New numbers. Montreal just about out of the first spot, but neither LA or Seattle managed to unseat. New York once again on the rise, and Kansas City putting together a good run when it counts. Columbus with two big wins now making some waves as well.

    week31graph.gif
     
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  19. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Jul 13, 2011
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Here's my updated rankings. HFA is a projected standing for the end of the season including the remaining schedule. The EAP is the strength of the team, given in points per season against average opponents. The model used is a poisson prediction model, and predicts the probability of W,D,L in each game, which are then multiplied by the point totals for each result. For EAP it is calcualated against a league average opponent for one neutral site game, and multiplied by 34. For HFA, it is done for each of the remaining games, and summed up, and added to the current standings. There is enough error in these calculations that the values should be interpreted as approximately +/- 1pt.

    Code:
    Tm  HFA  EAP
    SEA 58.5 55.2
    NYR 56.9 55.2
    SKC 55.7 59.1
    RSL 54.2 57.3
    POR 54.0 58.1
    LAG 53.0 54.7
    MON 52.8 50.1
    COL 50.7 51.2
    HOU 50.3 47.3
    VAN 48.0 49.9
    FCD 47.2 45.1
    NER 46.8 53.1
    SJE 46.1 38.2
    CHI 45.5 41.0
    PHI 45.5 44.9
    CLB 43.0 44.0
    CHV 30.2 28.3
    TOR 28.0 30.8
    DCU 20.7 22.9
    
    East playoff teams:
    NYR
    SKC
    MON
    HOU
    NER

    West playoff teams:
    SEA
    RSL
    POR
    LAG
    COL

    This puts the west cutoff at ~50 pts and the east cutoff at ~46. The picture in the west looks to be clearing up a little bit. It is by no means set, but the teams not currently in the playoffs will need a good run to make it in. The picture in the east is still about as clear as mud. Seattle is currently projected for the supporters shield, but in order to win it, they will definitely have to make good on their games in hand.
     
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  20. Jough

    Jough Member+

    Jul 30, 2007
    Kansas City
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    BS Ranking time? BS ranking time.

    week31bsratings.gif
     
  21. vividox

    vividox Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 10, 2005
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Darn, I was going to post tonight.
     
  22. Jough

    Jough Member+

    Jul 30, 2007
    Kansas City
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Please do :D I just got twitcy. New (extra screamy) baby has me rushing to get everything done the moment I have a free second...
     
  23. vividox

    vividox Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 10, 2005
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Seattle keeps the lead despite New York climbing to the top of the MLS standings. Seattle has moved a whopping +54 in the last month, they are in some great form right now and are still predicted to comfortably (well, three points is pretty comfortable considering the amount of parity we are witnessing, right?) win the SS. New York leap frogs KC for predicted East Conference finish, but it's by about three hundredths of a point. Interestingly, DC, Toronto, and Chivas are all within two points of each other clear down at the bottom of the ratings. Philadelphia is trying desperately to catch them at -55 for the month, but still has 113 points to go before they get an invite to join D.C. Chivas Canada.

    2013.09.22.png
     
  24. Jough

    Jough Member+

    Jul 30, 2007
    Kansas City
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Much like Star Wars, let's revise and revisit. New BS rankings, a few small changes. SKC up to #2. NY and RSL in a virtual tie, RSL with the very slight edge on SD variation.

    week31bsratings.gif
     
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