Code: GP W L D Pts GR MPT T# M# SSE# 1 DCU 24 14 6 4 43 6 64 37 2 19 2 NER 24 12 6 6 42 7 60 33 6 15 3 HOU 25 12 7 6 42 5 57 30 6 12 4 CDC 22 12 6 4 40 8 64 37 8 19 5 FCD 23 12 8 3 39 7 60 33 9 15 6 NYR 24 11 10 3 36 6 54 27 12 9 7 KCW 24 9 9 6 33 6 51 24 15 6 8 CHI 23 8 10 5 29 7 50 23 19 5 COL 24 7 10 7 28 6 46 19 20 1 CMB 24 6 8 10 28 6 46 19 20 1 TFC 23 5 13 5 20 7 41 14 28 - RSL 22 4 12 6 18 8 42 15 30 - LAG 20 4 11 5 17 10 47 20 31 2 GR = Games Remaining MPT = Maximum Points a team can achieve M# = Is the Magic Number I calculated T# = Is Knave's Tragic Number till Elimination SSE# = Supporters Shield Elimination Number (Points missed until eliminated) Updated to include yesterdays games. jlo thanks for catching the mistake on the Galaxies games left. Left out a function in Excel. I also miscalculated all the Magic Numbers for teams in the port 2 days ago. I inadvertantly used Colorado as the 9th place team to calculations. When in fact the Galaxy have the 9th highest possible points. DC can clinch on Wednesday Beyond that it gets tough to say what a team needs Because take Houston who needs 6 points to clinch. Well beating the Galaxy doesn't quite do it as Columbus and Colorado both have Maximum total points at 46. We could see 3-4 teams clinch this week.
Gemmell, DC has 46 points. So with the win over RSL, DC United has clinched the first playoff spot because the bottom 5 teams can't catch them in points.
Code: GP W L D Pts GR MPT T# M# SSE# 1 DCU 25 15 6 4 49 5 64 37 X 16 2 NER 24 12 6 6 42 6 60 33 6 12 3 HOU 25 12 7 6 42 5 57 30 6 9 4 CDC 22 12 6 4 40 8 64 37 8 16 5 FCD 23 12 8 3 39 7 60 33 9 12 6 NYR 24 11 10 3 36 6 54 27 12 6 7 KCW 24 9 9 6 33 6 51 24 15 3 8 CHI 23 8 10 5 29 7 50 23 19 2 COL 24 7 10 7 28 6 46 19 20 - CMB 24 6 8 10 28 6 46 19 20 - TFC 23 5 13 5 20 7 41 14 28 - RSL 23 4 13 6 18 7 39 12 30 - LAG 20 4 11 5 17 10 47 20 31 - GR = Games Remaining MPT = Maximum Points a team can achieve M# = Is the Magic Number I calculated T# = Is Knave's Tragic Number till Elimination SSE# = Supporters Shield Elimination Number (Points missed until eliminated) DC Clinched with a win last night. Teams that could clinch this week (Ending Sunday) New England Houston Chivas
Please double check this table as any computational accuracy it may exhibit is purely accidental. T# above the playoff line doesn't really make any sense to me. So I left it out. Code: GP W L D PTS GR MPT T# M# SSE# 1 DCU 25 15 6 4 49 5 64 - X 16 2 NER 25 13 6 6 45 5 60 - 2 12 3 CDC 23 13 6 4 43 7 64 - 4 16 4 HOU 25 12 7 6 42 5 57 - 5 9 5 FCD 24 12 9 3 39 6 57 - 8 9 6 NYR 25 11 10 4 37 5 52 - 10 4 7 KCW 25 10 9 6 36 5 51 - 11 3 8 CHI 24 8 10 6 30 6 48 - 17 - --------------------------------------------------- 9 CMB 25 6 9 10 28 5 43 14 19 - 10 COL 24 7 10 7 28 6 46 17 19 - 11 TFC 24 5 13 6 21 6 39 10 26 - 12 RSL 24 4 13 7 19 6 37 8 28 - 13 LAG 21 4 12 5 17 9 44 15 30 - MPT = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3*GR) T# = Tragic Number = MPT – (8th Place PTS) + 1 M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 13th Place MPT) – PTS + 1 SSE# = MPT - (1st Place PTS) + 1
The disclaimer above still stands ... doubly so. Code: GP W L D PTS GR MPT T# M# SSE# 1 DCU 25 15 6 4 49 5 64 - X 16 2 HOU 26 13 7 6 45 4 57 - X 9 3 NER 25 13 6 6 45 5 60 - X 12 4 CDC 24 13 6 5 44 6 62 - 1 14 5 FCD 24 12 9 3 39 6 57 - 6 9 6 NYR 25 11 10 4 37 5 52 - 8 4 7 KCW 25 10 9 6 36 5 51 - 9 3 8 CHI 24 8 10 6 30 6 48 - 15 - -------------------------------------------------- 9 COL 25 7 10 8 29 5 44 15 16 - 10 CMB 25 6 9 10 28 5 43 14 17 - 11 TFC 24 5 13 6 21 6 39 10 24 - 12 RSL 24 4 13 7 19 6 37 8 26 - 13 LAG 22 4 13 5 17 8 41 12 28 - MPT = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3*GR) T# = Tragic Number = MPT – (8th Place PTS) + 1 M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 13th Place MPT) – PTS + 1 SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPT - (1st Place PTS) + 1 New England and Houston clinch. I think ...
Code: GP W L D PTS GR MPT T# M# SSE# 1 DCU 25 15 6 4 49 5 64 - X 16 2 HOU 26 13 7 6 45 4 57 - X 9 3 NER 25 13 6 6 45 5 60 - X 12 4 CDC 24 13 6 5 44 6 62 - 1 14 5 FCD 24 12 9 3 39 6 57 - 6 9 6 NYR 25 11 10 4 37 5 52 - 8 4 7 KCW 25 10 9 6 36 5 51 - 9 3 8 CHI 24 8 10 6 30 6 48 - 15 - -------------------------------------------------- 9 COL 25 7 10 8 29 5 44 15 16 - 10 CMB 25 6 9 10 28 5 43 14 17 - 11 TFC 24 5 13 6 21 6 39 10 24 - 12 RSL 25 4 13 8 20 5 35 6 25 - 13 LAG 23 4 13 6 18 7 39 10 27 - MPT = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3*GR) T# = Tragic Number = MPT – (8th Place PTS) + 1 M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 13th Place MPT) – PTS + 1 SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPT - (1st Place PTS) + 1 If I'm right (always questionable) RSL will be eliminated from the playoffs this weekend if 1) Chicago wins, and 2) RSL loses.
FYP. Since FSL is playing Colorado in a Rocky Mountain Cup match them losing will mean they can't catch Colorado and they will be eliminated from playoff contention.
It's a measure of how close a team is to playoff elimination. In other words, how many points can they lose before they can't catch up to the current 8th place team.
Code: GP W L D PTS GR MPT PPG T# M# SSE# 1 DCU 25 15 6 4 49 5 64 1.96 - - 16 2 HOU 26 13 7 6 45 4 57 1.73 - - 9 3 NER 25 13 6 6 45 5 60 1.8 - - 12 4 CDC 24 13 6 5 44 6 62 1.83 - 1 14 5 FCD 25 12 9 4 40 5 55 1.6 - 5 7 6 NYR 25 11 10 4 37 5 52 1.48 - 8 4 7 KCW 25 10 9 6 36 5 51 1.44 - 9 3 8 CHI 25 8 10 7 31 5 46 1.24 - 14 - -------------------------------------------------------- 9 COL 25 7 10 8 29 5 44 1.16 14 16 - 10 CMB 25 6 9 10 28 5 43 1.12 13 17 - 11 TFC 24 5 13 6 21 6 39 0.88 9 24 - 12 RSL 25 4 13 8 20 5 35 0.8 5 25 - 13 LAG 23 4 13 6 18 7 39 0.78 9 27 - MPT = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3*GR) T# = Tragic Number = MPT – (8th Place PTS) + 1 M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 13th Place MPT) – PTS + 1 SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPT - (1st Place PTS) + 1
MLS Playoff Race 2007, Another Metric? In addition to tragic numbers, here's another new metric which sheds new light on the MLS 2007 Playoff Race, particularly the fight for the final postseason slot: http://redbullrising.blogspot.com/2007/09/mls-playoffs-eating-puppies-and.html
Re: MLS Playoff Race 2007, Another Metric? Code: GP W L D PTS GR MPP PPG T# M# SSE# 1 DCU 26 15 6 5 50 4 62 1.92 - - 13 2 CDC 25 14 6 5 47 5 62 1.88 - - 13 3 NER 26 13 6 7 46 4 58 1.77 - - 9 4 HOU 26 13 7 6 45 4 57 1.73 - - 8 5 FCD 26 12 10 4 40 4 52 1.54 - 4 3 6 NYR 26 11 10 5 38 4 50 1.46 - 6 1 7 KCW 26 10 10 6 36 4 48 1.38 - 8 - 8 CHI 26 8 10 8 32 4 44 1.23 - 12 - -------------------------------------------------------- 9 CMB 26 7 9 10 31 4 43 1.19 12 13 - 10 COL 26 7 11 8 29 4 41 1.12 10 15 - 11 RSL 26 5 13 8 23 4 35 0.88 4 21 - 12 LAG 24 5 13 6 21 6 39 0.88 8 23 - 13 TFC 25 5 14 6 21 5 36 0.84 5 23 - MPP = Most Points Potential = PTS + (3*GR) T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Place PTS) + 1 M# = Magic Number = (Highest 9th to 13th Place MPP) – PTS + 1 SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 Here's why I think the Tragic Number is interesting. So LA did everything right this week to preserve their very slim playoff hopes: they won. But their Tragic Number is actually worse this week than it was last week. That is because Chicago's draw raised the bar for taking over 8th place. So last week LA's MPP was 39 and Chicago PTS was 31 and that meant LA's Tragic Number was 9. This week LA's win preserved their MPP at 39, but Chicago's draw bumped their PTS to 32 and that means LA's Tragic Number dropped to 8. Even with the win, the noose around LA's neck actually tightened. Same thing happened to RSL.
Re: MLS Playoff Race 2007, Another Metric? what really hurt LA was their tie at RSL on Wednesday. their win on Sunday was big. had LA really done "everything right this week to preserve their very slim playoff hopes", they'd be at 23 points right now, and not 21. if they can string together 6 more wins to close out the season, they'd get to 39 points (which could very well be enough to get them by all of CHI, CMB & COL). of course, LA winning 6 more in a row is a long shot, but they are alive (as long as they keep getting W's and not draws or losses).
Re: MLS Playoff Race 2007, Another Metric? Forgot about that midweek game. I was just thinking in terms of since my last update - which was after that midweek game. I think it's beyond a long shot looking at their schedule. Look at all those away games against mid-table teams. @ KCW @ CMB @ HOU TFC NYR @ CHI
Regarding LA's (slim) chances, it always looks worse when you stack them all together. Take it week by week, and it looks brighter (a bit). This week, Chicago at Chivas (probably a loss) and Colorado at New England (ditto). Fire stay at 32, Rapids at 29. If LA wins at KC (who have not been playing well lately, especially if you throw out the miracle comeback vs. the Crew) and then at Columbus, they are sitting with 27 points. Five back of Chicago with a game in hand, with four left to play (for LA). Still a tall order, but no so outrageous, especially since since Chicago closes (@ CHV, NE, @ DC and home to LA). Basically, LA needs to be withing 6 points of 8th (especially if its Chicago) heading into the last week. All they'd have to do is win a meaningless (for NYRB game at home and then beat the Fire on the road to seal it). Again, its a long shot, but since they have one six-pointer left.......
it's not like a team has to be a "good" team to be the 8th out of 13 teams. two wins this week would get LA to 27 points. yes, they could get to 39 by the end of the season. but even 39 might not be enough to qualify a team for MLS playoffs 2007. but again, if LA puts a bit of a winning streak together, they could be in the race (along with the Fire, Crew & Rapids) for the final playoff spot (or even the 7th spot currently held by KC -- who after Thursday's game home to LA host DC then travel to NY and Dallas to close out their season). if LA does win on Thursday and Sunday, the playoff race could be a very exciting and tight one in the final three weeks. even without LA involved, the battle between the Fire, Crew & Rapids also has a lot of potential for a great race.
Let's see if LA can win a road game first, then we'll see about a couple in a row, then we'll start thinking about an outside shot at the playoffs. Most of us Galaxy fans are now looking at these games as nothing more than momentum builders for next season...
First of all, I just want to say that I don’t think LA’s goin’ to no playoffs or nothing. But I must point out that it won’t be easy to take points from us in the month of October, mainly b/c we will be getting back so many players who have been injured, including quality players like Albright and Beckham. This will accomplish 2 things: 1. give rest to already weary players 2. give rest to guys that are playing injured and are “taking one for the team” So we’ll finally be able to field a somewhat reasonable side, something we haven’t been able to do all season.
You know, I like to think of these games as the 2008 MLS Superdraft Race. (Of course San Jose already cheated by sitting out of the league a few years and get an automatic #1, but teams are still fighting for #2 pick.) I also like to think of them as an audition for season ticket holders who haven't called their ticket reps yet about next season - a "sampler", if you will, of what an actual MLS game with a competitive Galaxy team might look like. (You have to ignore that the games are probably meaningless, and that most of the guys playing are reserves or injured, and often you have to ignore the results on the scoreboard too )