We've had four expansion teams the last three years. The East has had three of the four. So I was imprecise - a net of two teams to the East.
I'm still not sure expansion teams are causing the East to win over the West this year. Conventional wisdom would be that expansion teams are weaker at the start up. This seems to be borne out by the standings.
My argument is that weaker expansion teams shred the depth of the top teams, so even if they do poorly, the previous year's top teams will suffer. To test this, I ran a simple correlation between lagged expansion for the East (net expansion) and the win percent for the East, and found no relationship. That said, it had an "N" of 20 (kick out the year the Central division won, kick out 1996), so perhaps in a decade we'll have better data.
Anecdotally, together Atlanta and Minnesota took only two players from teams that finished in the top four in 2016 (one from RBNY and one from Dallas). They took total of four players from non-playoff teams. They took a total of six players from Eastern teams and only four from Western teams. Granted "n" here is only 1 (year) or 2 (expansion teams). Still, it hardly seems the stuff to unbalance conferences in favour of the East.
expansion draft rules changed this past round. They gave the expansion teams more allocation money and less expansion draft picks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_MLS_Expansion_Draft It will be hard to compare past expansion years with 2016's draft as well as future drafts because of this.
Week 25 results: CLB 2-0 LAG CLB 2-1 FCD ORL 1-2 VAN CHI 1-2 MIN It was a split week with 2 wins each way. The West is now 31-25-42 overall. There are just 24 games left. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Teams in BOLD have completed their inter-conference schedule. EAST ATL 5-3-1 TFC 5-3-1 NER 5-3-2 CHI 5-2-2 CLB 5-1-3 NYC 4-1-2 PHI 3-4-2 ORL 3-3-3 NYR 3-1-5 DCU 2-2-5 MTL 2-2-5 WEST HOU 5-0-4 FCD 4-1-3 VAN 4-1-4 RSL 3-3-5 SKC 2-6-0 SEA 2-4-4 MIN 3-0-6 SJE 2-3-3 POR 2-3-3 LAG 2-3-4 COR 2-1-6 Week 26 fixtures: FCD v. NYR
Ironic that just after I say the West needs to win half the away points, they do just that. 2017ATLCHICLBDCUMNTNERNYCNYRORLPHITRNCOLFCDHOULAGMINPORRSLSEASJQSPKVAN ATL1:04:14:2 CHI3:02:11:22:04:14:0 CLB2:12:03:23:0 DCU1:30:00:10:0 MNT1:24:13:12:21:2 NER2:04:35:24:00:01:0 NYC3:12:12:1 NYR1:01:30:05:1 ORL2:02:12:21:2 PHI2:13:12:01:3 TRN1:12:03:24:10:0 COL2:10:11:0 FCD4:22:11:13:1 HOU3:13:14:14:0 LAG2:22:00:20:0 MIN1:60:14:00:31:0 POR1:12:21:12:0 RSL1:32:22:10:11:00:0 SEA0:04:33:33:11:10:1 SJQ2:11:01:12:2 SPK1:13:21:12:01:1 VAN3:10:13:20:00:2 2017HOMEHOMEHOMEAWAYAWAYAWAYTOTSTOTSTOTS 2017WINS TIESLOSSWINS TIESLOSSG.S.G.A.G.D. EAST32.008.008.0010.0017.0023.00161.00128.0033.00 WEST23.0017.0010.008.008.0032.00128.00161.00-33.00 ATLU3.000.000.002.003.001.0021.0010.0011.00 CHIC5.000.001.000.002.001.0022.0011.0011.00 CLBS4.000.000.001.001.003.0016.0012.004.00 DCUD0.002.002.002.000.003.008.0016.00-8.00 MONT2.001.002.000.001.003.0013.0015.00-2.00 NERV5.001.000.001.002.002.0023.0012.0011.00 NYFC3.000.000.000.001.004.0013.0016.00-3.00 NYRB2.001.001.001.000.002.0010.008.002.00 ORLD2.001.001.001.002.002.0010.0012.00-2.00 PHIL3.000.001.000.004.001.0011.009.002.00 TORN3.002.000.002.001.001.0014.007.007.00 COLO2.000.001.000.001.005.005.0012.00-7.00 FCDS3.001.000.001.000.003.0015.0013.002.00 HOUS4.000.000.001.000.004.0018.0014.004.00 LAGA1.002.001.001.001.003.0011.0013.00-2.00 MINN2.000.003.001.000.003.0013.0022.00-9.00 PORT1.003.000.001.000.003.0013.0016.00-3.00 RSLK2.002.002.001.001.003.008.0016.00-8.00 SEAT2.003.001.000.001.003.0015.0020.00-5.00 SJEQ2.002.000.000.001.003.0010.0015.00-5.00 SPKC2.003.000.000.003.000.0010.007.003.00 VANC2.001.002.002.000.002.0010.0013.00-3.00 2017TOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSPTSA 2017TGP.PTS.GPG.PPG.GAPGGLFT2016 EAST98.00151.001.641.541.3124.0025.00 WEST98.00118.001.311.201.6424.00-26.00 ATLU9.0018.002.332.001.113.000.00 CHIC9.0017.002.441.891.222.006.00 CLBS9.0016.001.781.781.332.005.00 DCUD9.008.000.890.891.782.00-5.00 MONT9.008.001.440.891.672.00-8.00 NERV11.0021.002.091.911.090.005.00 NYFC8.0010.001.621.252.003.00-10.00 NYRB7.0010.001.431.431.144.00-4.00 ORLD9.0012.001.111.331.332.004.00 PHIL9.0013.001.221.441.002.007.00 TORN9.0018.001.562.000.782.007.00 COLO9.007.000.560.781.332.00-7.00 FCDS8.0013.001.871.621.623.00-7.00 HOUS9.0015.002.001.671.562.008.00 LAGA9.009.001.221.001.442.00-6.00 MINN9.009.001.441.002.443.000.00 PORT8.009.001.621.122.003.00-4.00 RSLK11.0012.000.731.091.450.00-4.00 SEAT10.0010.001.501.002.001.00-9.00 SJEQ8.009.001.251.121.873.00-2.00 SPKC8.0012.001.251.500.873.00-4.00 VANC9.0013.001.111.441.442.000.00 Columbus carrying the East this week, which is...unusual...for us. Aside from that, with 24 games left, the West has a daunting task ahead. They need to win 74% of the remaining points just to tie. It's still over.
Week 26 results: FCD 2-2 NYR One draw each way this week. The West is now 31-26-42 overall. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Teams in BOLD have completed their inter-conference schedule. EAST ATL 5-3-1 TFC 5-3-1 NER 5-3-2 CHI 5-2-2 CLB 5-1-3 NYC 4-1-2 PHI 3-4-2 ORL 3-3-3 NYR 3-2-5 DCU 2-2-5 MTL 2-2-5 WEST HOU 5-0-4 FCD 4-2-3 VAN 4-1-4 RSL 3-3-5 SKC 2-6-0 SEA 2-4-4 MIN 3-0-6 SJE 2-3-3 POR 2-3-3 LAG 2-3-4 COR 2-1-6 Week 27 fixtures: NYC v. SKC TFC v. SJE NYC v. POR MIN v. PHI CLB v. SKC ATL v. FCD
Week 27 results: NYC 1-0 SKC TFC 4-0 SJE NYC 0-1 POR MIN 1-1 PHI CLB 1-1 SKC ATL 3-0 FCD The East wins the week with 3 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss. The West is now 32-28-45 overall. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Teams in BOLD have completed their inter-conference schedule. EAST ATL 6-3-1 TFC 6-3-1 NER 5-3-2 CHI 5-2-2 CLB 5-2-3 NYC 5-1-3 PHI 3-5-2 ORL 3-3-3 NYR 3-2-5 DCU 2-2-5 MTL 2-2-5 WEST HOU 5-0-4 FCD 4-2-4 VAN 4-1-4 SKC 2-7-1 POR 3-3-3 RSL 3-3-5 MIN 3-1-6 SEA 2-4-4 SJE 2-3-4 LAG 2-3-4 COR 2-1-6 Week 28 fixtures: VAN v. CLB MTL v. MIN SKC v. NER COR v. NYC LAG v. TFC
I see the smiley face but here is the answer. The current standings are 32-28-45 from the West perspective. There are 17 games left. The West needs to win 13 more than the East just to tie. So 14-3-0 would give it to the West. Or 15-1-1. The East just needs to win 3 games to clinch. Possibly fewer if there are some ties. The East could clinch this week but they only have 1 home game so it might not happen until next week.
Catching up now after losing power and procrastinating. 2017ATLCHICLBDCUMNTNERNYCNYRORLPHITRNCOLFCDHOULAGMINPORRSLSEASJQSPKVAN ATL1:03:04:14:2 CHI3:02:11:22:04:14:0 CLB2:12:03:23:01:1 DCU1:30:00:10:0 MNT1:24:13:12:21:2 NER2:04:35:24:00:01:0 NYC3:10:12:12:11:0 NYR1:01:30:05:1 ORL2:02:12:21:2 PHI2:13:12:01:3 TRN1:12:03:24:14:00:0 COL2:10:11:0 FCD4:22:11:13:1 HOU3:13:14:14:0 LAG2:22:00:20:0 MIN1:60:14:00:31:01:1 POR1:12:21:12:0 RSL1:32:22:10:11:00:0 SEA0:04:33:33:11:10:1 SJQ2:11:01:12:2 SPK1:13:21:12:01:1 VAN3:10:13:20:00:2 2017HOMEHOMEHOMEAWAYAWAYAWAYTOTSTOTSTOTS 2017WINS TIESLOSSWINS TIESLOSSG.S.G.A.G.D. EAST35.009.009.0010.0018.0023.00171.00131.0040.00 WEST23.0018.0010.009.009.0035.00131.00171.00-40.00 ATLU4.000.000.002.003.001.0024.0010.0014.00 CHIC5.000.001.000.002.001.0022.0011.0011.00 CLBS4.001.000.001.001.003.0017.0013.004.00 DCUD0.002.002.002.000.003.008.0016.00-8.00 MONT2.001.002.000.001.003.0013.0015.00-2.00 NERV5.001.000.001.002.002.0023.0012.0011.00 NYFC4.000.001.000.001.004.0014.0017.00-3.00 NYRB2.001.001.001.000.002.0010.008.002.00 ORLD2.001.001.001.002.002.0010.0012.00-2.00 PHIL3.000.001.000.005.001.0012.0010.002.00 TORN4.002.000.002.001.001.0018.007.0011.00 COLO2.000.001.000.001.005.005.0012.00-7.00 FCDS3.001.000.001.000.004.0015.0016.00-1.00 HOUS4.000.000.001.000.004.0018.0014.004.00 LAGA1.002.001.001.001.003.0011.0013.00-2.00 MINN2.001.003.001.000.003.0014.0023.00-9.00 PORT1.003.000.002.000.003.0014.0016.00-2.00 RSLK2.002.002.001.001.003.008.0016.00-8.00 SEAT2.003.001.000.001.003.0015.0020.00-5.00 SJEQ2.002.000.000.001.004.0010.0019.00-9.00 SPKC2.003.000.000.004.001.0011.009.002.00 VANC2.001.002.002.000.002.0010.0013.00-3.00 2017TOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSPTSA 2017TGP.PTS.GPG.PPG.GAPGGLFT2016 EAST104.00162.001.641.561.2618.0036.00 WEST104.00123.001.261.181.6418.00-21.00 ATLU10.0021.002.402.101.002.000.00 CHIC9.0017.002.441.891.222.006.00 CLBS10.0017.001.701.701.301.006.00 DCUD9.008.000.890.891.782.00-5.00 MONT9.008.001.440.891.672.00-8.00 NERV11.0021.002.091.911.090.005.00 NYFC10.0013.001.401.301.701.00-7.00 NYRB7.0010.001.431.431.144.00-4.00 ORLD9.0012.001.111.331.332.004.00 PHIL10.0014.001.201.401.001.008.00 TORN10.0021.001.802.100.701.0010.00 COLO9.007.000.560.781.332.00-7.00 FCDS9.0013.001.671.441.782.00-7.00 HOUS9.0015.002.001.671.562.008.00 LAGA9.009.001.221.001.442.00-6.00 MINN10.0010.001.401.002.302.000.00 PORT9.0012.001.561.331.782.00-1.00 RSLK11.0012.000.731.091.450.00-4.00 SEAT10.0010.001.501.002.001.00-9.00 SJEQ9.009.001.111.002.112.00-2.00 SPKC10.0013.001.101.300.901.00-3.00 VANC9.0013.001.111.441.442.000.00 As newtex stated, this is all over but the shouting.
Toplines (sorry @newtex for stealing your thunder) for the week: the West went 2-2-1 this week to have an overall WTL record of 34-30-46. The conferences now have twelve games remaining, and the West is 36 points behind. The West must receive all 100% of those points. Sure, that could happen. And, they'd want to do it scoring a net 41 goals - that'd be a net 3.42 goals per game. Playoff contenders NYRB, CHI, and ATL have a combined eight interconference games left between them, so you know at least one of them is going to be a tie. As the season winds down, five teams now have complete records (Columbus, New York City, Toronto, Real Salt Lake, Sporting Kansas City). Columbus ended 7 points higher than 2016. New York City ended 6 points lower than 2016. Toronto ended thirteen points higher - wow! Salt Lake ended 4 points lower. Kansas City broke even. 2017ATLCHICLBDCUMNTNERNYCNYRORLPHITRNCOLFCDHOULAGMINPORRSLSEASJQSPKVAN ATL1:03:04:14:2 CHI3:02:11:22:04:14:0 CLB2:12:03:23:01:1 DCU1:30:00:10:0 MNT1:22:34:13:12:21:2 NER2:04:35:24:00:01:0 NYC3:10:12:12:11:0 NYR1:01:30:05:1 ORL2:02:12:21:2 PHI2:13:12:01:3 TRN1:12:03:24:14:00:0 COL2:10:11:01:1 FCD4:22:11:12:23:1 HOU3:13:14:14:0 LAG2:22:00:20:00:4 MIN1:60:14:00:31:01:1 POR1:12:21:12:0 RSL1:32:22:10:11:00:0 SEA0:04:33:33:11:10:1 SJQ2:11:01:12:2 SPK1:13:21:13:12:01:1 VAN3:12:20:13:20:00:2 2017HOMEHOMEHOMEAWAYAWAYAWAYTOTSTOTSTOTS 2017WINS TIESLOSSWINS TIESLOSSG.S.G.A.G.D. EAST35.009.0010.0011.0021.0024.00183.00142.0041.00 WEST24.0021.0011.0010.009.0035.00142.00183.00-41.00 ATLU4.000.000.002.003.001.0024.0010.0014.00 CHIC5.000.001.000.002.001.0022.0011.0011.00 CLBS4.001.000.001.002.003.0019.0015.004.00 DCUD0.002.002.002.000.003.008.0016.00-8.00 MONT2.001.003.000.001.003.0015.0018.00-3.00 NERV5.001.000.001.002.003.0024.0015.009.00 NYFC4.000.001.000.002.004.0015.0018.00-3.00 NYRB2.001.001.001.001.002.0012.0010.002.00 ORLD2.001.001.001.002.002.0010.0012.00-2.00 PHIL3.000.001.000.005.001.0012.0010.002.00 TORN4.002.000.003.001.001.0022.007.0015.00 COLO2.001.001.000.001.005.006.0013.00-7.00 FCDS3.002.000.001.000.004.0017.0018.00-1.00 HOUS4.000.000.001.000.004.0018.0014.004.00 LAGA1.002.002.001.001.003.0011.0017.00-6.00 MINN2.001.003.002.000.003.0017.0025.00-8.00 PORT1.003.000.002.000.003.0014.0016.00-2.00 RSLK2.002.002.001.001.003.008.0016.00-8.00 SEAT2.003.001.000.001.003.0015.0020.00-5.00 SJEQ2.002.000.000.001.004.0010.0019.00-9.00 SPKC3.003.000.000.004.001.0014.0010.004.00 VANC2.002.002.002.000.002.0012.0015.00-3.00 2017TOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSPTSA 2017TGP.PTS.GPG.PPG.GAPGGLFT2016 EAST110.00168.001.661.531.2912.0042.00 WEST110.00132.001.291.201.6612.00-12.00 ATLU10.0021.002.402.101.002.000.00 CHIC9.0017.002.441.891.222.006.00 CLBS11.0018.001.731.641.360.007.00 DCUD9.008.000.890.891.782.00-5.00 MONT10.008.001.500.801.801.00-8.00 NERV12.0021.002.001.751.25-1.005.00 NYFC11.0014.001.361.271.640.00-6.00 NYRB8.0011.001.501.371.253.00-3.00 ORLD9.0012.001.111.331.332.004.00 PHIL10.0014.001.201.401.001.008.00 TORN11.0024.002.002.180.640.0013.00 COLO10.008.000.600.801.301.00-6.00 FCDS10.0014.001.701.401.801.00-6.00 HOUS9.0015.002.001.671.562.008.00 LAGA10.009.001.100.901.701.00-6.00 MINN11.0013.001.551.182.271.000.00 PORT9.0012.001.561.331.782.00-1.00 RSLK11.0012.000.731.091.450.00-4.00 SEAT10.0010.001.501.002.001.00-9.00 SJEQ9.009.001.111.002.112.00-2.00 SPKC11.0016.001.271.450.910.000.00 VANC10.0014.001.201.401.501.001.00
Week 28 results: VAN 2-2 CLB MTL 2-3 MIN SKC 3-1 NER COR 1-1 NYC LAG 0-4 TFC The West wins the week with 2 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss. The West is now 34-30-46 overall. That means the West has to win the remaining 12 games to catch the East. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Teams in BOLD have completed their inter-conference schedule. EAST TFC 7-3-1 ATL 6-3-1 NER 5-3-3 CLB 5-3-3 CHI 5-2-2 NYC 5-2-3 PHI 3-5-2 ORL 3-3-3 NYR 3-2-5 DCU 2-2-5 MTL 2-2-6 WEST SKC 3-7-1 HOU 5-0-4 FCD 4-2-4 VAN 4-2-4 MIN 4-1-6 POR 3-3-3 RSL 3-3-5 SEA 2-4-4 SJE 2-3-4 LAG 2-3-5 COR 2-2-6 Week 29 fixtures: ATL v. LAG NYC v. HOU DCU v. SJE POR v.ORL
You only beat me because I thought I had an error. I kept looking at that Kansas City-Red Bulls game this week and thinking, that can't be right because KC is done. And it messed up all my remaining numbers. I kept checking and re-checking and I couldn't figure it out. Finally light dawned and I remembered that the Open Cup isn't quite done.
I have had an error all season that I finally caught - my home ties for the West wasn't including Colorado.
Week 29 results: ATL 4-0 LAG NYC 1-1 HOU DCU 4-0 SJE POR 3-0 ORL The East wins the week with 2 wins, 1 draw, and only 1 loss. The West is now 35-31-48 overall. With only 8 inter-conference games left that clinches the competition for the East. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. Teams in BOLD have completed their inter-conference schedule. EAST TFC 7-3-1 ATL 7-3-1 NER 5-3-3 CLB 5-3-3 NYC 5-3-3 CHI 5-2-2 PHI 3-5-2 ORL 3-3-4 NYR 3-2-5 DCU 3-2-5 MTL 2-2-6 WEST SKC 3-7-1 HOU 5-1-4 POR 4-3-3 FCD 4-2-4 VAN 4-2-4 MIN 4-1-6 RSL 3-3-5 SEA 2-4-4 SJE 2-3-5 LAG 2-3-6 COR 2-2-6 Week 30 fixtures: ORL v. FCD COR v. MTL PHI v. SEA
As newtex said, the East clinched. Now we see how well they do against previous seasons. My guess is that this is a pretty average season for the winning conference, but Atlanta is nearly done roaring through the league so perhaps the West can make up some ground. The tables are below. 2017ATLCHICLBDCUMNTNERNYCNYRORLPHITRNCOLFCDHOULAGMINPORRSLSEASJQSPKVAN ATL1:03:04:14:04:2 CHI3:02:11:22:04:14:0 CLB2:12:03:23:01:1 DCU1:30:00:14:00:0 MNT1:22:34:13:12:21:2 NER2:04:35:24:00:01:0 NYC1:13:10:12:12:11:0 NYR1:01:30:05:1 ORL2:02:12:21:2 PHI2:13:12:01:3 TRN1:12:03:24:14:00:0 COL2:10:11:01:1 FCD4:22:11:12:23:1 HOU3:13:14:14:0 LAG2:22:00:20:00:4 MIN1:60:14:00:31:01:1 POR1:12:21:12:03:0 RSL1:32:22:10:11:00:0 SEA0:04:33:33:11:10:1 SJQ2:11:01:12:2 SPK1:13:21:13:12:01:1 VAN3:12:20:13:20:00:2 2017HOMEHOMEHOMEAWAYAWAYAWAYTOTSTOTSTOTS 2017WINS TIESLOSSWINS TIESLOSSG.S.G.A.G.D. EAST37.0010.0010.0011.0021.0025.00192.00146.0046.00 WEST25.0021.0011.0010.0010.0037.00146.00192.00-46.00 ATLU5.000.000.002.003.001.0028.0010.0018.00 CHIC5.000.001.000.002.001.0022.0011.0011.00 CLBS4.001.000.001.002.003.0019.0015.004.00 DCUD1.002.002.002.000.003.0012.0016.00-4.00 MONT2.001.003.000.001.003.0015.0018.00-3.00 NERV5.001.000.001.002.003.0024.0015.009.00 NYFC4.001.001.000.002.004.0016.0019.00-3.00 NYRB2.001.001.001.001.002.0012.0010.002.00 ORLD2.001.001.001.002.003.0010.0015.00-5.00 PHIL3.000.001.000.005.001.0012.0010.002.00 TORN4.002.000.003.001.001.0022.007.0015.00 COLO2.001.001.000.001.005.006.0013.00-7.00 FCDS3.002.000.001.000.004.0017.0018.00-1.00 HOUS4.000.000.001.001.004.0019.0015.004.00 LAGA1.002.002.001.001.004.0011.0021.00-10.00 MINN2.001.003.002.000.003.0017.0025.00-8.00 PORT2.003.000.002.000.003.0017.0016.001.00 RSLK2.002.002.001.001.003.008.0016.00-8.00 SEAT2.003.001.000.001.003.0015.0020.00-5.00 SJEQ2.002.000.000.001.005.0010.0023.00-13.00 SPKC3.003.000.000.004.001.0014.0010.004.00 VANC2.002.002.002.000.002.0012.0015.00-3.00 2017TOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSPTSA 2017TGP.PTS.GPG.PPG.GAPGGLFT2016 EAST114.00175.001.681.541.288.0049.00 WEST114.00136.001.281.191.688.00-8.00 ATLU11.0024.002.552.180.911.000.00 CHIC9.0017.002.441.891.222.006.00 CLBS11.0018.001.731.641.360.007.00 DCUD10.0011.001.201.101.601.00-2.00 MONT10.008.001.500.801.801.00-8.00 NERV12.0021.002.001.751.25-1.005.00 NYFC12.0015.001.331.251.58-1.00-5.00 NYRB8.0011.001.501.371.253.00-3.00 ORLD10.0012.001.001.201.501.004.00 PHIL10.0014.001.201.401.001.008.00 TORN11.0024.002.002.180.640.0013.00 COLO10.008.000.600.801.301.00-6.00 FCDS10.0014.001.701.401.801.00-6.00 HOUS10.0016.001.901.601.501.009.00 LAGA11.009.001.000.821.910.00-6.00 MINN11.0013.001.551.182.271.000.00 PORT10.0015.001.701.501.601.002.00 RSLK11.0012.000.731.091.450.00-4.00 SEAT10.0010.001.501.002.001.00-9.00 SJEQ10.009.001.000.902.301.00-2.00 SPKC11.0016.001.271.450.910.000.00 VANC10.0014.001.201.401.501.001.00