MLS East v. West 2017

EvanJ · Jul 6, 2017

American Brummie said: ↑

I want to have enough data over several years to account for crowd size, referee card bias, altitude, weather, distance, etc...all the little things that supposedly give an edge.
Click to expand...

A few months ago I did a linear regression with 6 independent variables for something else. Maybe I'll help you. Here's what I think of your variables:

Crowd size: As long the attendance is available, I would use this variable. Is there a website with the attendance of every game of a season on one page?

Referee card bias: I don't want a model to be affected by a borderline yellow or red card, and I don't want to look at old articles to identify controversial calls or no calls. Even if referee card bias could be identified, it would be hard to quantify. One reason is that red cards hurt more early in the game. There could also be times where a player got a straight red card in the 40th minute that should have been a yellow. If he hadn't been ejected, he hypothetically could have been ejected for a red card or a second yellow card or been substituted out, so it's impossible to know how long he would have played past the 40th minute.

Altitude: I'm assuming there's somewhere on the internet that has the altitude of every town (or at least cities), but I don't want to look up the altitude of every stadium when it doesn't matter most of the time.

Weather: This could be important, but there are problems. Bad weather could reduce the amount of ticket bought right before the game, which is covered by attendance. Bad weather could also mean that a higher percentage of tickets belonged to people who didn't show up, but it's impossible to know how many people didn't show up. Weather is also hard to measure. It would be necessary to get hour-by-hour weather for each club going back years. A website with one sentence per day per city could say that there was some heavy rain but not say if it rained shortly before or during the game. Even with hour-by-hour weather, I would have to look up the start time for every game. There are times where the weather could be very different a few miles apart. It could be sunny in New York City and Philadelphia but raining in Chester and Harrison where MLS clubs play. There is no way I include weather in a regression I do.

Distance: The distance on roads between any two stadiums is easy to measure. However, the distance by plane is not the same. When I posted how much travel College of Charleston has as the southernmost school in the Colonial Athletic Association, a fan said that College of Charleston has less travel time because they fly to their opponents, whereas they took bus trips when they were in the Southern Conference that were longer than the plane trips they take now. Another factor is if the away club's distance should be from their home or from their previous away game (which could be in another competition). For example, if the Red Bulls fly west, play at San Jose on Wednesday, and play at Seattle 3 days later, should the travel variable for the latter be from San Jose to Seattle or from New Jersey to Seattle? It could also matter how many days before the game the home club was at home. Is there a way of knowing weather the away club took a bus or flew for any possible combination of a home club and an away club? You did not mention days of rest before the game, but it matters. I suggest combining every combination of days of rest and travel since the previous game into one variable from 1 to 5 or 1 to 10.

Crowd size, distance, and days of rest are the only variables I would be willing to help you with.

American Brummie · Jul 6, 2017

EvanJ said: ↑

A few months ago I did a linear regression with 6 independent variables for something else. Maybe I'll help you. Here's what I think of your variables:

Crowd size: As long the attendance is available, I would use this variable. Is there a website with the attendance of every game of a season on one page?

Referee card bias: I don't want a model to be affected by a borderline yellow or red card, and I don't want to look at old articles to identify controversial calls or no calls. Even if referee card bias could be identified, it would be hard to quantify. One reason is that red cards hurt more early in the game. There could also be times where a player got a straight red card in the 40th minute that should have been a yellow. If he hadn't been ejected, he hypothetically could have been ejected for a red card or a second yellow card or been substituted out, so it's impossible to know how long he would have played past the 40th minute.

Altitude: I'm assuming there's somewhere on the internet that has the altitude of every town (or at least cities), but I don't want to look up the altitude of every stadium when it doesn't matter most of the time.

Weather: This could be important, but there are problems. Bad weather could reduce the amount of ticket bought right before the game, which is covered by attendance. Bad weather could also mean that a higher percentage of tickets belonged to people who didn't show up, but it's impossible to know how many people didn't show up. Weather is also hard to measure. It would be necessary to get hour-by-hour weather for each club going back years. A website with one sentence per day per city could say that there was some heavy rain but not say if it rained shortly before or during the game. Even with hour-by-hour weather, I would have to look up the start time for every game. There are times where the weather could be very different a few miles apart. It could be sunny in New York City and Philadelphia but raining in Chester and Harrison where MLS clubs play. There is no way I include weather in a regression I do.

Distance: The distance on roads between any two stadiums is easy to measure. However, the distance by plane is not the same. When I posted how much travel College of Charleston has as the southernmost school in the Colonial Athletic Association, a fan said that College of Charleston has less travel time because they fly to their opponents, whereas they took bus trips when they were in the Southern Conference that were longer than the plane trips they take now. Another factor is if the away club's distance should be from their home or from their previous away game (which could be in another competition). For example, if the Red Bulls fly west, play at San Jose on Wednesday, and play at Seattle 3 days later, should the travel variable for the latter be from San Jose to Seattle or from New Jersey to Seattle? It could also matter how many days before the game the home club was at home. Is there a way of knowing weather the away club took a bus or flew for any possible combination of a home club and an away club? You did not mention days of rest before the game, but it matters. I suggest combining every combination of days of rest and travel since the previous game into one variable from 1 to 5 or 1 to 10.

Crowd size, distance, and days of rest are the only variables I would be willing to help you with.
Click to expand...

PM me.

EvanJ · Jul 6, 2017

American Brummie said: ↑

PM me.
Click to expand...

I got a message that I can't start a conversation with you.

Different clubs have different difficulty of opponents, and no matter what variables you include it is impossible to determine how much games were affected by those variables compared to how much games were affected by the quality of the clubs.

American Brummie · Jul 6, 2017

EvanJ said: ↑

I got a message that I can't start a conversation with you.

Different clubs have different difficulty of opponents, and no matter what variables you include it is impossible to determine how much games were affected by those variables compared to how much games were affected by the quality of the clubs.
Click to expand...

Weird. I sent you one.

newtex · Jul 7, 2017

Week 19 results:
ATL 4-2 SJE
MIN 0-1 CLB
FCD 4-2 DCU
HOU 3-1 MTL
VAN 3-2 NYC
POR 2-2 CHI
SKC 1-1 PHI

The West wins a week with 3 wins and 2 ties against 2 losses. The West is now 21-21-31 overall.

Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned.

EAST
CHI 5-2-0
ATL 5-2-1
TFC 4-2-1
NER 3-3-2
ORL 3-3-2
NYC 3-1-2
CLB 3-0-2
PHI 2-3-2
DCU 1-2-1
MTL 1-2-4
NYR 1-1-4

WEST
HOU 4-0-4
FCD 3-1-1
VAN 3-1-3
LAG 2-3-1
RSL 2-2-4
SKC 1-5-0
SEA 1-4-4
COR 2-0-5
POR 1-3-2
SJE 1-2-2
MIN 1-0-5

Week 20 fixtures:
NYR v. SJE
SEA v. DCU
MIN v. NYR
TFC v. COR
DCU v. HOU
MTL v. FCD
NER v. LAG

American Brummie · Jul 14, 2017

2017 ATL CHI CLB DCU MNT NER NYC NYR ORL PHI TRN COL FCD HOU LAG MIN POR RSL SEA SJQ SPK VAN

ATL 1:0 4:1 4:2

CHI 3:0 2:1 2:0 4:1 4:0

CLB 3:2 3:0

DCU 0:0 0:0

MNT 4:1 2:2 1:2

NER 2:0 5:2 4:0 0:0

NYC 3:1 2:1 2:1

NYR 1:0 1:3 0:0

ORL 2:0 2:1 2:2

PHI 2:1 2:0 1:3

TRN 2:0 3:2 0:0

COL 2:1 1:0

FCD 4:2 2:1 1:1 3:1

HOU 3:1 3:1 4:1 4:0

LAG 2:2 2:0 0:0

MIN 1:6 0:1 1:0

POR 1:1 2:2 1:1

RSL 1:3 2:1 0:1 1:0 0:0

SEA 0:0 3:3 3:1 1:1 0:1

SJQ 1:0 1:1

SPK 1:1 2:0 1:1

VAN 3:1 0:1 3:2 0:0 0:2

I dropped the ball on this last week. Uncharacteristic for me. Plenty of time to catch up before the Gold Cup.

2017 HOME HOME HOME AWAY AWAY AWAY TOTS TOTS TOTS

2017 WINS TIES LOSS WINS TIES LOSS G.S. G.A. G.D.

EAST 24.00 7.00 3.00 7.00 14.00 18.00 115.00 89.00 26.00

WEST 18.00 14.00 7.00 3.00 7.00 24.00 89.00 115.00 -26.00

ATLU 3.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 20.00 9.00 11.00

CHIC 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 19.00 6.00 13.00

CLBS 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 9.00 7.00 2.00

DCUD 0.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 4.00 -1.00

MONT 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 9.00 12.00 -3.00

NERV 3.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00 16.00 9.00 7.00

NYFC 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 4.00 13.00 16.00 -3.00

NYRB 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 5.00 -3.00

ORLD 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 9.00 10.00 -1.00

PHIL 2.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 3.00 1.00 6.00 6.00 0.00

TORN 2.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 9.00 5.00 4.00

COLO 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 4.00 10.00 -6.00

FCDS 3.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 11.00 7.00 4.00

HOUS 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 15.00 13.00 2.00

LAGA 1.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 8.00 5.00 3.00

MINN 1.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 7.00 18.00 -11.00

PORT 0.00 3.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 10.00 12.00 -2.00

RSLK 2.00 1.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 11.00 -7.00

SEAT 1.00 3.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 11.00 17.00 -6.00

SJEQ 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 5.00 7.00 -2.00

SPKC 1.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 6.00 4.00 2.00

VANC 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 8.00 11.00 -3.00

2017 TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS PTSA

2017 TGP. PTS. GPG. PPG. GAPG GLFT 2016

EAST 73.00 114.00 1.58 1.56 1.22 49.00 -12.00

WEST 73.00 84.00 1.22 1.15 1.58 49.00 -60.00

ATLU 8.00 17.00 2.50 2.12 1.12 4.00 0.00

CHIC 7.00 17.00 2.71 2.43 0.86 4.00 6.00

CLBS 5.00 9.00 1.80 1.80 1.40 6.00 -2.00

DCUD 4.00 5.00 0.75 1.25 1.00 7.00 -8.00

MONT 7.00 5.00 1.29 0.71 1.71 4.00 -11.00

NERV 8.00 12.00 2.00 1.50 1.12 3.00 -4.00

NYFC 8.00 10.00 1.62 1.25 2.00 3.00 -10.00

NYRB 4.00 4.00 0.50 1.00 1.25 7.00 -10.00

ORLD 8.00 12.00 1.12 1.50 1.25 3.00 4.00

PHIL 7.00 9.00 0.86 1.29 0.86 4.00 3.00

TORN 7.00 14.00 1.29 2.00 0.71 4.00 3.00

COLO 7.00 6.00 0.57 0.86 1.43 4.00 -8.00

FCDS 5.00 10.00 2.20 2.00 1.40 6.00 -10.00

HOUS 8.00 12.00 1.87 1.50 1.62 3.00 5.00

LAGA 6.00 9.00 1.33 1.50 0.83 5.00 -6.00

MINN 6.00 3.00 1.17 0.50 3.00 6.00 0.00

PORT 6.00 6.00 1.67 1.00 2.00 5.00 -7.00

RSLK 8.00 8.00 0.50 1.00 1.37 3.00 -8.00

SEAT 9.00 7.00 1.22 0.78 1.89 2.00 -12.00

SJEQ 5.00 5.00 1.00 1.00 1.40 6.00 -6.00

SPKC 6.00 8.00 1.00 1.33 0.67 5.00 -8.00

VANC 7.00 10.00 1.14 1.43 1.57 4.00 -3.00

While the West did win the week, they should have. Six of the games were played in the West. The East stole five points from the West, which means the West has played five more home games and have a home record of 1.74, whereas the East has a home record of 2.32. It's that simple. Their away records (W = 0.47, E = 0.62) are abysmal, but the East only needs tie the West in away PPG to win this thing at this point.

newtex · Jul 23, 2017

Week 20 results:
NYR 5-1 SJE
SEA 4-3 DCU
MIN 0-3 NYR
TFC 1-1 COR
DCU 1-3 HOU
MTL 1-2 FCD
NER 4-3 LAG

The week is split with 3 wins and 1 tie each way. The West is now 24-22-34 overall.

Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned.

EAST
CHI 5-2-0
ATL 5-2-1
TFC 4-3-1
NER 4-3-2
ORL 3-3-2
NYC 3-1-2
NYR 3-1-4
CLB 3-0-2
PHI 2-3-2
DCU 1-2-3
MTL 1-2-5

WEST
HOU 5-0-4
FCD 4-1-1
VAN 3-1-3
SEA 2-4-4
LAG 2-3-2
RSL 2-2-4
COR 2-1-5
SKC 1-5-0
POR 1-3-2
SJE 1-2-3
MIN 1-0-6

Week 21 fixtures:
RSL v. CLB
MIN v. DCU
SKC v. CHI

American Brummie · Jul 24, 2017

Tables are below. The West did better this week, stealing seven points away from home. Unfortunately, they also coughed up three points at home, and net negative two goals on the week.

The West is 30 points behind, by my calculations. There are 42 games left. 42 * 3 = 126, 126/2 = 63. 63 + 15 = 78. 78/126 = 0.62, or 62% of the remaining points. That's not the end of the world, and this week showed they can pull it off, but each remaining game played with a loss or draw makes it infinitely harder.

2017 ATL CHI CLB DCU MNT NER NYC NYR ORL PHI TRN COL FCD HOU LAG MIN POR RSL SEA SJQ SPK VAN

ATL 1:0 4:1 4:2

CHI 3:0 2:1 2:0 4:1 4:0

CLB 3:2 3:0

DCU 1:3 0:0 0:0

MNT 1:2 4:1 2:2 1:2

NER 2:0 4:3 5:2 4:0 0:0

NYC 3:1 2:1 2:1

NYR 1:0 1:3 0:0 5:1

ORL 2:0 2:1 2:2

PHI 2:1 2:0 1:3

TRN 1:1 2:0 3:2 0:0

COL 2:1 1:0

FCD 4:2 2:1 1:1 3:1

HOU 3:1 3:1 4:1 4:0

LAG 2:2 2:0 0:0

MIN 1:6 0:1 0:3 1:0

POR 1:1 2:2 1:1

RSL 1:3 2:1 0:1 1:0 0:0

SEA 0:0 4:3 3:3 3:1 1:1 0:1

SJQ 1:0 1:1

SPK 1:1 2:0 1:1

VAN 3:1 0:1 3:2 0:0 0:2

2017 HOME HOME HOME AWAY AWAY AWAY TOTS TOTS TOTS

2017 WINS TIES LOSS WINS TIES LOSS G.S. G.A. G.D.

EAST 26.00 8.00 5.00 8.00 14.00 19.00 133.00 103.00 30.00

WEST 19.00 14.00 8.00 5.00 8.00 26.00 103.00 133.00 -30.00

ATLU 3.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 20.00 9.00 11.00

CHIC 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 19.00 6.00 13.00

CLBS 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 9.00 7.00 2.00

DCUD 0.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 7.00 11.00 -4.00

MONT 1.00 1.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 10.00 14.00 -4.00

NERV 4.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00 20.00 12.00 8.00

NYFC 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 4.00 13.00 16.00 -3.00

NYRB 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 10.00 6.00 4.00

ORLD 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 9.00 10.00 -1.00

PHIL 2.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 3.00 1.00 6.00 6.00 0.00

TORN 2.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 10.00 6.00 4.00

COLO 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 5.00 5.00 11.00 -6.00

FCDS 3.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 13.00 8.00 5.00

HOUS 4.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 4.00 18.00 14.00 4.00

LAGA 1.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 11.00 9.00 2.00

MINN 1.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 7.00 21.00 -14.00

PORT 0.00 3.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 10.00 12.00 -2.00

RSLK 2.00 1.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 11.00 -7.00

SEAT 2.00 3.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 15.00 20.00 -5.00

SJEQ 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 6.00 12.00 -6.00

SPKC 1.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 6.00 4.00 2.00

VANC 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 8.00 11.00 -3.00

2017 TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS PTSA

2017 TGP. PTS. GPG. PPG. GAPG GLFT 2016

EAST 80.00 124.00 1.66 1.55 1.29 42.00 -2.00

WEST 80.00 94.00 1.29 1.18 1.66 42.00 -50.00

ATLU 8.00 17.00 2.50 2.12 1.12 4.00 0.00

CHIC 7.00 17.00 2.71 2.43 0.86 4.00 6.00

CLBS 5.00 9.00 1.80 1.80 1.40 6.00 -2.00

DCUD 6.00 5.00 1.17 0.83 1.83 5.00 -8.00

MONT 8.00 5.00 1.25 0.62 1.75 3.00 -11.00

NERV 9.00 15.00 2.22 1.67 1.33 2.00 -1.00

NYFC 8.00 10.00 1.62 1.25 2.00 3.00 -10.00

NYRB 6.00 10.00 1.67 1.67 1.00 5.00 -4.00

ORLD 8.00 12.00 1.12 1.50 1.25 3.00 4.00

PHIL 7.00 9.00 0.86 1.29 0.86 4.00 3.00

TORN 8.00 15.00 1.25 1.87 0.75 3.00 4.00

COLO 8.00 7.00 0.62 0.87 1.37 3.00 -7.00

FCDS 6.00 13.00 2.17 2.17 1.33 5.00 -7.00

HOUS 9.00 15.00 2.00 1.67 1.56 2.00 8.00

LAGA 7.00 9.00 1.57 1.29 1.29 4.00 -6.00

MINN 7.00 3.00 1.00 0.43 3.00 5.00 0.00

PORT 6.00 6.00 1.67 1.00 2.00 5.00 -7.00

RSLK 8.00 8.00 0.50 1.00 1.37 3.00 -8.00

SEAT 10.00 10.00 1.50 1.00 2.00 1.00 -9.00

SJEQ 6.00 5.00 1.00 0.83 2.00 5.00 -6.00

SPKC 6.00 8.00 1.00 1.33 0.67 5.00 -8.00

VANC 7.00 10.00 1.14 1.43 1.57 4.00 -3.00

newtex · Jul 29, 2017

Week 21 results:
RSL 2-2 CLB
MIN 4-0 DCU
SKC 3-2 CHI

The West wins the week with 2 wins and a tie. The West is now 26-23-34 overall.

Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned.

EAST
CHI 5-2-1
ATL 5-2-1
TFC 4-3-1
NER 4-3-2
ORL 3-3-2
NYC 3-1-2
CLB 3-1-2
NYR 3-1-4
PHI 2-3-2
DCU 1-2-4
MTL 1-2-5

WEST
HOU 5-0-4
FCD 4-1-1
SKC 2-5-0
VAN 3-1-3
SEA 2-4-4
LAG 2-3-2
RSL 2-3-4
COR 2-1-5
MIN 2-0-6
POR 1-3-2
SJE 1-2-3

Week 22 fixtures:
PHI v. FCD
SJE v. CLB
SKC v. ATL

American Brummie · Jul 31, 2017

The West gets 7/9 home points. That's good. It means they need to win 60.3% of the remaining points in order to win the trophy. It means a net of eight wins. That's doable. But it's hard.

2017 ATL CHI CLB DCU MNT NER NYC NYR ORL PHI TRN COL FCD HOU LAG MIN POR RSL SEA SJQ SPK VAN

ATL 1:0 4:1 4:2

CHI 3:0 2:1 2:0 4:1 4:0

CLB 3:2 3:0

DCU 1:3 0:0 0:0

MNT 1:2 4:1 2:2 1:2

NER 2:0 4:3 5:2 4:0 0:0

NYC 3:1 2:1 2:1

NYR 1:0 1:3 0:0 5:1

ORL 2:0 2:1 2:2

PHI 2:1 2:0 1:3

TRN 1:1 2:0 3:2 0:0

COL 2:1 1:0

FCD 4:2 2:1 1:1 3:1

HOU 3:1 3:1 4:1 4:0

LAG 2:2 2:0 0:0

MIN 1:6 0:1 4:0 0:3 1:0

POR 1:1 2:2 1:1

RSL 1:3 2:2 2:1 0:1 1:0 0:0

SEA 0:0 4:3 3:3 3:1 1:1 0:1

SJQ 1:0 1:1

SPK 3:2 1:1 2:0 1:1

VAN 3:1 0:1 3:2 0:0 0:2

2017 HOME HOME HOME AWAY AWAY AWAY TOTS TOTS TOTS

2017 WINS TIES LOSS WINS TIES LOSS G.S. G.A. G.D.

EAST 26.00 8.00 5.00 8.00 15.00 21.00 137.00 112.00 25.00

WEST 21.00 15.00 8.00 5.00 8.00 26.00 112.00 137.00 -25.00

ATLU 3.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 20.00 9.00 11.00

CHIC 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 1.00 21.00 9.00 12.00

CLBS 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 11.00 9.00 2.00

DCUD 0.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 3.00 7.00 15.00 -8.00

MONT 1.00 1.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 10.00 14.00 -4.00

NERV 4.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00 20.00 12.00 8.00

NYFC 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 4.00 13.00 16.00 -3.00

NYRB 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 10.00 6.00 4.00

ORLD 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 9.00 10.00 -1.00

PHIL 2.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 3.00 1.00 6.00 6.00 0.00

TORN 2.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 10.00 6.00 4.00

COLO 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 5.00 5.00 11.00 -6.00

FCDS 3.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 13.00 8.00 5.00

HOUS 4.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 4.00 18.00 14.00 4.00

LAGA 1.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 11.00 9.00 2.00

MINN 2.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 11.00 21.00 -10.00

PORT 0.00 3.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 10.00 12.00 -2.00

RSLK 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 6.00 13.00 -7.00

SEAT 2.00 3.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 15.00 20.00 -5.00

SJEQ 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 6.00 12.00 -6.00

SPKC 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 9.00 6.00 3.00

VANC 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 8.00 11.00 -3.00

2017 TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS PTSA

2017 TGP. PTS. GPG. PPG. GAPG GLFT 2016

EAST 83.00 125.00 1.65 1.51 1.35 39.00 -1.00

WEST 83.00 101.00 1.35 1.22 1.65 39.00 -43.00

ATLU 8.00 17.00 2.50 2.12 1.12 4.00 0.00

CHIC 8.00 17.00 2.62 2.12 1.12 3.00 6.00

CLBS 6.00 10.00 1.83 1.67 1.50 5.00 -1.00

DCUD 7.00 5.00 1.00 0.71 2.14 4.00 -8.00

MONT 8.00 5.00 1.25 0.62 1.75 3.00 -11.00

NERV 9.00 15.00 2.22 1.67 1.33 2.00 -1.00

NYFC 8.00 10.00 1.62 1.25 2.00 3.00 -10.00

NYRB 6.00 10.00 1.67 1.67 1.00 5.00 -4.00

ORLD 8.00 12.00 1.12 1.50 1.25 3.00 4.00

PHIL 7.00 9.00 0.86 1.29 0.86 4.00 3.00

TORN 8.00 15.00 1.25 1.87 0.75 3.00 4.00

COLO 8.00 7.00 0.62 0.87 1.37 3.00 -7.00

FCDS 6.00 13.00 2.17 2.17 1.33 5.00 -7.00

HOUS 9.00 15.00 2.00 1.67 1.56 2.00 8.00

LAGA 7.00 9.00 1.57 1.29 1.29 4.00 -6.00

MINN 8.00 6.00 1.37 0.75 2.62 4.00 0.00

PORT 6.00 6.00 1.67 1.00 2.00 5.00 -7.00

RSLK 9.00 9.00 0.67 1.00 1.44 2.00 -7.00

SEAT 10.00 10.00 1.50 1.00 2.00 1.00 -9.00

SJEQ 6.00 5.00 1.00 0.83 2.00 5.00 -6.00

SPKC 7.00 11.00 1.29 1.57 0.86 4.00 -5.00

VANC 7.00 10.00 1.14 1.43 1.57 4.00 -3.00

newtex · Aug 8, 2017

Week 22 results:
PHI 3-1 FCD
SJE 2-1 CLB
SKC 1-1 ATL

A split week with a win and a tie each way. The West is now 27-24-35 overall.

Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned.

EAST
ATL 5-3-1
CHI 5-2-1
TFC 4-3-1
NER 4-3-2
ORL 3-3-2
PHI 3-3-2
NYC 3-1-2
CLB 3-1-3
NYR 3-1-4
DCU 1-2-4
MTL 1-2-5

WEST
HOU 5-0-4
FCD 4-1-2
SKC 2-6-0
VAN 3-1-3
SEA 2-4-4
LAG 2-3-2
RSL 2-3-4
SJE 2-2-3
COR 2-1-5
MIN 2-0-6
POR 1-3-2

Week 23 fixtures:
TFC v. POR
DCU v. RSL
NER v. VAN
LAG v. NYC

jeffclimbs · Aug 8, 2017

So is the West toast?

newtex · Aug 13, 2017

Week 23 results:
TFC 4-1 POR
DCU 0-1 RSL
NER 1-0 VAN
LAG 0-2 NYC

The East wins the week with 3 wins out of 4 games. The West is now 28-24-39 overall.

Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned.

EAST
ATL 5-3-1
TFC 5-3-1
NER 5-3-2
CHI 5-2-1
NYC 4-1-2
ORL 3-3-2
PHI 3-3-2
CLB 3-1-3
NYR 3-1-4
DCU 1-2-5
MTL 1-2-5

WEST
HOU 5-0-4
FCD 4-1-2
RSL 3-3-4
SKC 2-6-0
VAN 3-1-4
SEA 2-4-4
LAG 2-3-3
SJE 2-2-3
COR 2-1-5
MIN 2-0-6
POR 1-3-3

Week 24 fixtures:
POR v. NYR
MTL v. RSL
COR v. DCU
SJE v. PHI

American Brummie · Aug 14, 2017

jeffclimbs said: ↑

So is the West toast?
Click to expand...

Yes.

newtex said: ↑

The West is now 28-24-39 overall.
Click to expand...

newtex I have 28-24-38. Am I missing a game?

2017 ATL CHI CLB DCU MNT NER NYC NYR ORL PHI TRN COL FCD HOU LAG MIN POR RSL SEA SJQ SPK VAN

ATL 1:0 4:1 4:2

CHI 3:0 2:1 2:0 4:1 4:0

CLB 3:2 3:0

DCU 1:3 0:0 0:1 0:0

MNT 1:2 4:1 2:2 1:2

NER 2:0 4:3 5:2 4:0 0:0 1:0

NYC 3:1 2:1 2:1

NYR 1:0 1:3 0:0 5:1

ORL 2:0 2:1 2:2

PHI 2:1 3:1 2:0 1:3

TRN 1:1 2:0 3:2 4:1 0:0

COL 2:1 1:0

FCD 4:2 2:1 1:1 3:1

HOU 3:1 3:1 4:1 4:0

LAG 2:2 2:0 0:2 0:0

MIN 1:6 0:1 4:0 0:3 1:0

POR 1:1 2:2 1:1

RSL 1:3 2:2 2:1 0:1 1:0 0:0

SEA 0:0 4:3 3:3 3:1 1:1 0:1

SJQ 2:1 1:0 1:1

SPK 1:1 3:2 1:1 2:0 1:1

VAN 3:1 0:1 3:2 0:0 0:2

There are 32 interconference games left and the West is 30 points behind the East. And 31 goals. That means that over the course of those 30 games, the West has to get 65.6% of the remaining points and score a net 32 goals more. And they have to do this while having to play more games in the East. The East has 43 home games behind them, from which they have received 95 points (2.21 PPG), while the West has 82 points from 47 home games (1.75 PPG). So the West's home bastion isn't safe, while the East has had no trouble getting away points (43 points from 47 away games, 0.91). The West's away record is...well, it's terrible. Just 26 points from 43 games, or 0.61 PPG.

So there is a window for the West, but that window is shrinking very rapidly - who's ever heard of a conference winning virtually two-thirds of the available points this late in a season?

In other news, New England is done for this season in interconference play. The next closest teams are Toronto (2 games left), Houston (2 games left), and Salt Lake City and Seattle (1 game left). Compared to 2016, four Eastern teams (Chicago, New England, Orlando, and Philadelphia) have outdone their interconference performance. Columbus is only one point off with four games remaining. In the West, Houston is the only team to have beaten their 2016 pace, although it is likely that San Jose, Kansas City, and Vancouver outperform theirs. Salt Lake City and Seattle will definitely fall behind that pace.

Tables tables tables time!

2017 HOME HOME HOME AWAY AWAY AWAY TOTS TOTS TOTS

2017 WINS TIES LOSS WINS TIES LOSS G.S. G.A. G.D.

EAST 29.00 8.00 6.00 9.00 16.00 22.00 149.00 118.00 31.00

WEST 22.00 16.00 9.00 6.00 8.00 29.00 118.00 149.00 -31.00

ATLU 3.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 3.00 1.00 21.00 10.00 11.00

CHIC 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 1.00 21.00 9.00 12.00

CLBS 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 12.00 11.00 1.00

DCUD 0.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 3.00 7.00 16.00 -9.00

MONT 1.00 1.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 10.00 14.00 -4.00

NERV 5.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 23.00 12.00 11.00

NYFC 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 4.00 13.00 16.00 -3.00

NYRB 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 10.00 6.00 4.00

ORLD 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 9.00 10.00 -1.00

PHIL 3.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 3.00 1.00 9.00 7.00 2.00

TORN 3.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 14.00 7.00 7.00

COLO 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 5.00 5.00 11.00 -6.00

FCDS 3.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 14.00 11.00 3.00

HOUS 4.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 4.00 18.00 14.00 4.00

LAGA 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 11.00 11.00 0.00

MINN 2.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 11.00 21.00 -10.00

PORT 0.00 3.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 3.00 11.00 16.00 -5.00

RSLK 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 7.00 13.00 -6.00

SEAT 2.00 3.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 15.00 20.00 -5.00

SJEQ 2.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 8.00 13.00 -5.00

SPKC 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 10.00 7.00 3.00

VANC 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 8.00 12.00 -4.00

2017 TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS PTSA

2017 TGP. PTS. GPG. PPG. GAPG GLFT 2016

EAST 90.00 138.00 1.66 1.53 1.31 32.00 12.00

WEST 90.00 108.00 1.31 1.20 1.66 32.00 -36.00

ATLU 9.00 18.00 2.33 2.00 1.11 3.00 0.00

CHIC 8.00 17.00 2.62 2.12 1.12 3.00 6.00

CLBS 7.00 10.00 1.71 1.43 1.57 4.00 -1.00

DCUD 8.00 5.00 0.87 0.62 2.00 3.00 -8.00

MONT 8.00 5.00 1.25 0.62 1.75 3.00 -11.00

NERV 11.00 21.00 2.09 1.91 1.09 0.00 5.00

NYFC 8.00 10.00 1.62 1.25 2.00 3.00 -10.00

NYRB 6.00 10.00 1.67 1.67 1.00 5.00 -4.00

ORLD 8.00 12.00 1.12 1.50 1.25 3.00 4.00

PHIL 8.00 12.00 1.12 1.50 0.87 3.00 6.00

TORN 9.00 18.00 1.56 2.00 0.78 2.00 7.00

COLO 8.00 7.00 0.62 0.87 1.37 3.00 -7.00

FCDS 7.00 13.00 2.00 1.86 1.57 4.00 -7.00

HOUS 9.00 15.00 2.00 1.67 1.56 2.00 8.00

LAGA 8.00 9.00 1.37 1.12 1.37 3.00 -6.00

MINN 8.00 6.00 1.37 0.75 2.62 4.00 0.00

PORT 7.00 6.00 1.57 0.86 2.29 4.00 -7.00

RSLK 10.00 12.00 0.70 1.20 1.30 1.00 -4.00

SEAT 10.00 10.00 1.50 1.00 2.00 1.00 -9.00

SJEQ 7.00 8.00 1.14 1.14 1.86 4.00 -3.00

SPKC 8.00 12.00 1.25 1.50 0.87 3.00 -4.00

VANC 8.00 10.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 3.00 -3.00

newtex · Aug 14, 2017

American Brummie said: ↑

newtex I have 28-24-38. Am I missing a game?
Click to expand...

Nope, I'm wrong. 28-24-38 is the correct number.

American Brummie · Aug 14, 2017

newtex said: ↑

Nope, I'm wrong. 28-24-38 is the correct number.
Click to expand...

I'm making fewer mistakes thanks to the miracles of automation. Instead of calculating things this year, all I have to do is put in the game scores with the H:A format in the top table and the rest spits things out. My goal for next year is to learn enough to set up an API to connect MLSsoccer.com straight to the top table.

newtex · Aug 14, 2017

American Brummie said: ↑

I'm making fewer mistakes thanks to the miracles of automation. Instead of calculating things this year, all I have to do is put in the game scores with the H:A format in the top table and the rest spits things out. My goal for next year is to learn enough to set up an API to connect MLSsoccer.com straight to the top table.
Click to expand...

I do mine in my head. Errors are inevitable. I'm OK with that.

American Brummie · Aug 14, 2017

newtex said: ↑

I do mine in my head. Errors are inevitable. I'm OK with that.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but remember a few seasons ago where I had three or four errors a week? I was a shitshow then.

EvanJ · Aug 16, 2017

newtex said: ↑

I do mine in my head. Errors are inevitable. I'm OK with that.
Click to expand...

You can make a spreadsheet with a row for each week and columns for West wins that week, West total wins, draws that week, total draws, East wins that week, and East total wins. You can make formulas so the total columns equal the number above it (through the previous week) plus the new amount in that row. If you want I can make a sample and e-mail it to you.

newtex · Aug 16, 2017

EvanJ said: ↑

You can make a spreadsheet with a row for each week and columns for West wins that week, West total wins, draws that week, total draws, East wins that week, and East total wins. You can make formulas so the total columns equal the number above it (through the previous week) plus the new amount in that row. If you want I can make a sample and e-mail it to you.
Click to expand...

Oh, I know. I use spreadsheets at work and for some of my other Big Soccer updates. This one is pretty simple so I just quote, copy/paste, and do the addition mentally. I usually double-check by adding the columns in the teams table but this week I didn't. I think my record on mistakes is pretty good but I will make one if I start making more.

Thank you for the offer.

Paul Berry · Aug 18, 2017

On a slightly related subject, does anyone track who has the best record in intra-conference matches? Apologies if this has already been addressed.

jeffclimbs · Aug 18, 2017

Paul Berry said: ↑

On a slightly related subject, does anyone track who has the best record in intra-conference matches? Apologies if this has already been addressed.
Click to expand...

Rather than apologize, just scroll up and read a chart or two.

American Brummie · Aug 18, 2017

Paul Berry said: ↑

On a slightly related subject, does anyone track who has the best record in intra-conference matches? Apologies if this has already been addressed.
Click to expand...

jeffclimbs said: ↑

Rather than apologize, just scroll up and read a chart or two.
Click to expand...

I need to make my charts better. People who come here ought to be able to read my charts and in two seconds pick up on the gist. I'm open to suggestions, but next semester I'm going to break these up into probably six charts.

newtex · Aug 22, 2017

Week 24 results:
POR 2-0 NYR
MTL 3-1 RSL
COR 0-1 DCU
SJE 2-2 PHI

The East wins the week with 2 wins and a draw out of four games. The West is now 29-25-40 overall.

Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned.
Teams in BOLD have completed their inter-conference schedule.

EAST
ATL 5-3-1
TFC 5-3-1
NER 5-3-2
CHI 5-2-1
NYC 4-1-2
PHI 3-4-2
ORL 3-3-2
CLB 3-1-3
NYR 3-1-5
DCU 2-2-5
MTL 2-2-5

WEST
HOU 5-0-4
FCD 4-1-2
RSL 3-3-5
SKC 2-6-0
VAN 3-1-4
SEA 2-4-4
LAG 2-3-3
SJE 2-3-3
POR 2-3-3
COR 2-1-6
MIN 2-0-6

Week 25 fixtures:
CLB v. LAG
CLB v. FCD
ORL v. VAN
CHI v. MIN

American Brummie · Aug 25, 2017

I'm back from the totality of the eclipse to report one thing:

It's over.

Who among us doesn't enjoy a sporting chance between the conferences? I do. But with Columbus' win over LA in the midweek (not included to stay contemporaneous with newtex), there just aren't enough games left for the West to have a reasonable chance.

With 28 games left, the East has a 33-point lead over the West, an 0.34 PPG advantage, and a 32-goal lead. For the West to merely tie - not win, but tie - in these, they would need to score an extra 1.14 goals per game over the East and obtain 70.8% of the remaining points. And they'll have to do that despite having to play six more away games than home games.

Let's be generous and assume they win out at home (they have eleven home games left, correct?), scoring a net three goals per game. That'd close the gap to zero point differential and the West with a one-goal lead. In order to hang on, they would have to obtain 1.5 PPG from their away (at Eastern stadia) games. Currently, the West has obtained a meager 0.59 PPG from the East.

It's over.

In other news, five Eastern teams have outperformed their 2016 position - Chicago, New England, Orlando, Philadelphia, and Toronto. Columbus need a single win, or two draws, in their remaining three games. In the East, only New England has finished playing this year.

In the West, only Houston has bested their performance from last year. Salt Lake is done for the year, having lost 4 points from last year. Seattle has one game left and is 9 points down. Colorado is two games away and is 7 points down, so they will not best last year's performance.

This is the way of things. You add two Eastern expansion teams, they draft from the better parts of the league, and the league evens out. Not to mention Seattle, LA, and Portland were aging out their best players, and you get this season. Next year will be less lopsided, assuming LAFC pillages and plunders from the best the East has to offer.

2017 ATL CHI CLB DCU MNT NER NYC NYR ORL PHI TRN COL FCD HOU LAG MIN POR RSL SEA SJQ SPK VAN

ATL 1:0 4:1 4:2

CHI 3:0 2:1 2:0 4:1 4:0

CLB 3:2 3:0

DCU 1:3 0:0 0:1 0:0

MNT 1:2 4:1 3:1 2:2 1:2

NER 2:0 4:3 5:2 4:0 0:0 1:0

NYC 3:1 2:1 2:1

NYR 1:0 1:3 0:0 5:1

ORL 2:0 2:1 2:2

PHI 2:1 3:1 2:0 1:3

TRN 1:1 2:0 3:2 4:1 0:0

COL 2:1 0:1 1:0

FCD 4:2 2:1 1:1 3:1

HOU 3:1 3:1 4:1 4:0

LAG 2:2 2:0 0:2 0:0

MIN 1:6 0:1 4:0 0:3 1:0

POR 1:1 2:2 1:1 2:0

RSL 1:3 2:2 2:1 0:1 1:0 0:0

SEA 0:0 4:3 3:3 3:1 1:1 0:1

SJQ 2:1 1:0 1:1 2:2

SPK 1:1 3:2 1:1 2:0 1:1

VAN 3:1 0:1 3:2 0:0 0:2

2017 HOME HOME HOME AWAY AWAY AWAY TOTS TOTS TOTS

2017 WINS TIES LOSS WINS TIES LOSS G.S. G.A. G.D.

EAST 30.00 8.00 6.00 10.00 17.00 23.00 155.00 123.00 32.00

WEST 23.00 17.00 10.00 6.00 8.00 30.00 123.00 155.00 -32.00

ATLU 3.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 3.00 1.00 21.00 10.00 11.00

CHIC 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 1.00 21.00 9.00 12.00

CLBS 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 12.00 11.00 1.00

DCUD 0.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 3.00 8.00 16.00 -8.00

MONT 2.00 1.00 2.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 13.00 15.00 -2.00

NERV 5.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 23.00 12.00 11.00

NYFC 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 4.00 13.00 16.00 -3.00

NYRB 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 10.00 8.00 2.00

ORLD 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 9.00 10.00 -1.00

PHIL 3.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 4.00 1.00 11.00 9.00 2.00

TORN 3.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 14.00 7.00 7.00

COLO 2.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 5.00 5.00 12.00 -7.00

FCDS 3.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 14.00 11.00 3.00

HOUS 4.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 4.00 18.00 14.00 4.00

LAGA 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 11.00 11.00 0.00

MINN 2.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 11.00 21.00 -10.00

PORT 1.00 3.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 3.00 13.00 16.00 -3.00

RSLK 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 8.00 16.00 -8.00

SEAT 2.00 3.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 15.00 20.00 -5.00

SJEQ 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 10.00 15.00 -5.00

SPKC 2.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 10.00 7.00 3.00

VANC 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 8.00 12.00 -4.00

2017 TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS TOTS PTSA

2017 TGP. PTS. GPG. PPG. GAPG GLFT 2016

EAST 94.00 145.00 1.65 1.54 1.31 28.00 19.00

WEST 94.00 112.00 1.31 1.19 1.65 28.00 -32.00

ATLU 9.00 18.00 2.33 2.00 1.11 3.00 0.00

CHIC 8.00 17.00 2.62 2.12 1.12 3.00 6.00

CLBS 7.00 10.00 1.71 1.43 1.57 4.00 -1.00

DCUD 9.00 8.00 0.89 0.89 1.78 2.00 -5.00

MONT 9.00 8.00 1.44 0.89 1.67 2.00 -8.00

NERV 11.00 21.00 2.09 1.91 1.09 0.00 5.00

NYFC 8.00 10.00 1.62 1.25 2.00 3.00 -10.00

NYRB 7.00 10.00 1.43 1.43 1.14 4.00 -4.00

ORLD 8.00 12.00 1.12 1.50 1.25 3.00 4.00

PHIL 9.00 13.00 1.22 1.44 1.00 2.00 7.00

TORN 9.00 18.00 1.56 2.00 0.78 2.00 7.00

COLO 9.00 7.00 0.56 0.78 1.33 2.00 -7.00

FCDS 7.00 13.00 2.00 1.86 1.57 4.00 -7.00

HOUS 9.00 15.00 2.00 1.67 1.56 2.00 8.00

LAGA 8.00 9.00 1.37 1.12 1.37 3.00 -6.00

MINN 8.00 6.00 1.37 0.75 2.62 4.00 0.00

PORT 8.00 9.00 1.62 1.12 2.00 3.00 -4.00

RSLK 11.00 12.00 0.73 1.09 1.45 0.00 -4.00

SEAT 10.00 10.00 1.50 1.00 2.00 1.00 -9.00

SJEQ 8.00 9.00 1.25 1.12 1.87 3.00 -2.00

SPKC 8.00 12.00 1.25 1.50 0.87 3.00 -4.00

VANC 8.00 10.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 3.00 -3.00