In another thread, it was mentioned that 15 of the first 38 MLS games have ended in a tie (39%). An initial caveat is that that's far too small a sample to draw firm conclusions -- a 95% confidence interval for the true percentage runs from 26.3% to 56.6%. However, my suspicion is that this is a real phenomenon. Teams seem to believe that a tie is a good result. The smoking gun? So far this season, there hasn't been a single tie-breaking goal scored in minutes 76-90. Usually that's the highest-scoring part of the game.
One thing that's important to note, though, is that the same phenomenon happened last year. We had a lot of draws in the first few weeks, and the number decreased as the season went on.
By the end of the season, we would be able to know how much of an effect of eliminating the OT had on ties. Giving that MLS system is parity, it can only increase the amount of ties. I did some calculation and found the following EPL this year: 28.4 % of games ended in ties Series A: 29.4% Last year for MLS it was 27% This year (thus far) 39% How many games in Mexican LEague ended up in ties? i don't have the list of standings so I can't calculate it.
A few draw percentage & goals per game stats from around the world. League....HW...D..AW...G/G...HG...AG. Australia..49..21..29..2.65..1.61..1.04 Bulgaria...55..19..26..2.83..1.79..1.04 Denmark...46..20..34..2.97..1.60..1.37 France1...49..26..25..2.32..1.40..0.92 France2...45..33..22..2.26..1.36..0.90 Germany...52..24..24..2.97..1.80..1.16 Dutch......47..24..29..2.97..1.70..1.27 Italy........43..29..27..2.66..1.52..1.14 Spain1.....45..25..30..2.67..1.48..1.18 Spain2.....39..37..24..2.16..1.23..0.93 EPL.........44..28..28..2.70..1.50..1.20 England1..45..26..29..2.60..1.50..1.10 England2..45..31..24..2.70..1.60..1.10 England3..47..27..26..2.50..1.50..1.10 ScotlandP.45..25..30..2.80..1.60..1.20 Scotland1.44..28..28..2.70..1.50..1.20 Scotland2.43..23..34..3.00..1.60..1.40 Scotland3..41..21..38..3.20..1.80..1.40 US to date.39..39..21..2.60..1.39..1.21 USA2........44..28..28..2.37..1.37..1.00 Where HW=home win percentage,D=draw,AW=away win,G/G=total goals per game,HG=goals scored by the home side per game,AG=goals scored by the away side. Looking at the total goals per game(G/G) & the percentage draws,USA1 is slightly weird at the moment compared to virtually every other league featured.Going by goals per game USA2 should be the one that has the drawsfest. Home field advantage also seems quite low in USA1.(1.39 goals for the home sides compared to 1.21 for the away). Don't really know why USA1 should apparantly differ so much from USA2(although I know next to nothing about either...catching a few MSL recordings about covers it) The closest match comes from The Spanish Secunda.Home wins/draws/away wins are virtually identical,home advantage similar,but Spain2's total goals is way down...just as you'd expect for a draw laden league.MLS1's total goals is closer to the EPL figure. As a footnote the bookies wern't prepared to take Spain2's draw percentages at face value(or they hadn't done their homework).Draw odds of around 33% were still readily avaiable half way thru the season. Just to prove USA isn't the most weird league worldwide,check out the figures for the Tasmaia South premier League from a few years back. TSPL......56..4!!..40..4.84..2.66..2.18 Not sure how many tie breaking goals were scored in the final fourteen minutes in the EPL,but that may be worth checking.I'd guess no more than a couple of games per team per season. I'd guess if any league's going to show some anormal stats it''s going to be the MLS given that the parity rules & draft make it virtually unique worldwide. T
Turns out that the Premiership had almost 3 tie-breaking goals per team (2.95) -- 59 tie-breaking goals and 108 games that ended in a tie; in MLS so far, there have been 0 tie-breaking goals and 15 ties. Late tie-breakers in Premiership: Chelsea @ Liverpool Man City @ Blackburn Leeds @ Middlesbrough Newcastle @ Everton Fulham @ Birmingham Fulham v. Man City Birmingham @ Leeds Arsenal v. Newcastle Charlton v. Liverpool Charlton @ Portsmouth Chelsea @ Middlesbrough Man U @ Leeds Spurs @ Leicester Wolves v. Leicester Liverpool @ Fulham Arsenal v. Spurs Spurs v. Villa Blackburn v. Spurs Fulham v. Bolton So'ton v. Charlton Bolton @ Chelsea Leeds v. Fulham Everton v. Leicester Birmingham v. Man City Liverpool @ Man City Villa v. Portsmouth Bolton @ Blackburn Bolton @ Charlton Chelsea @ Blackburn Man U @ Everton Spurs v. Portsmouth Spurs v. Portsmouth (twice) Middlesbrough @ Man U Charlton v. Blackburn Newcastle v. Middlesbrough Leicester @ Spurs Everton v. Villa Chelsea @ Man City Everton v. Portsmouth Spurs v. Newcastle Liverpool v. Wolves Leeds v. Man City Portsmouth @ Blackburn Chelsea v. Wolves Everton v. Middlesbrough Leeds v. Leicester Man U @ Birmingham Wolves @ Man City Southampton v. Newcastle Bolton @ Wolves Birmingham @ Charlton Blackburn @ Everton Villa @ Middlesbrough Bolton @ Southampton Blackburn v. Man U Charlton v. Leicester Portsmouth v. Fulham Wolves v. Everton Bolton @ Everton
In case you don't believe in a god who likes irony, there have been nine MLS games since this thread began. Not a single one has ended in a tie, and two of them were decided by late gamewinners.
or standard regression to the mean type stuff - have seen starts like that before in leagues (and the reverse)
There's a difference between regression to the mean and having things immediately jump to the opposite extreme. Incidentally, three more MLS tie-breakers in the last 15 minutes this week, with a fourth coming in minute 74.
Before this gets forgotten completely ... 2003 -- 41 ties in 150 games (27.3%) 2004 to date -- 39 ties in 135 games (28.9%) After starting 2004 with an ungodly number of ties, we expect to end up with about two more than we had last year ... does anyone have the numbers for how often a tie was broken in OT?
From another thread, it looks like 53 games went to overtime in the 2003 season (35.3%). So even though there is more parity this season and scoring has gone down a bit, there has been a marked reduction in the number of games that were tied after 90 minutes.
Extending things ... 2000 -- 34 ties in 192 games (17.7%) 2001 -- 28 ties in 158 games (17.7%) 2002 -- 22 ties in 140 games (15.7%) 2003 -- 41 ties in 150 games (27.3%) 2004 to date -- 39 ties in 135 games (28.9%) Have we chewed on this before ... ties went way up in 2003 and have stayed high ... is this because overtime/late-game scoring is way down? Because scoring in general is way down? Because tactics have evolved? A fluke?
Upon closer look, have noticed a pattern here, other than '96-98, the % of Ties have generally increased over seasons, until new scheduling / playoffs formats were introduced, and the cycles continued. It seemed that teams were more aggressive with new schedule / playoffs formats, but became more settled down the road, until another reset. Let's see what's going to happen in this season... (My gut feel? The Ties % should be higher than the last season. )
Noted that SKC have scored 2 Injury Time Goals vs PHI today: 90'+1'Jalil Anibaba; Assisted By: Roger Espinoza 90'+4'Krisztian Németh; Assisted By: Matt Besler, Benny Feilhaber Just wondering: What is the current record for the Most Injury Time Goals by a team in a game (Reg.Season & Playoffs)? What is the corresponding record for 2 teams combined? (i.e. Team A - 2, Team B - 1, Total - 3) What is the list of games with Multiple Injury Time Goals scored, since 1996?