MLS Cup Final: ATL v POR

Atlanta United vs. Portland Timbers
Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta
December 8 - 8 pm
FOX

MLSsoccer.com preview here.
Armchair Analyst tactical preview here.
AJC.com AUFC page here.

As with last week I'll be doing my offering in parts. For tonight the basic info that matters:

Neither team had a player suspended coming into the final, and Portland is without recent injuries coming into the match save one, with striker Samuel Armenteros listed as questionable. If he doesn't play their attack will lack a forward with more than 3 goals.

Atlanta is considered at full health save for those players who've rarely played or started. (R. Williams, Ambrose, Vasquez...) McCann isn't at full strength but reports are that he's likely to be at least in the 18 and could go if needed. Most importantly Parkhurst has at least done some practicing with the team and his ankle injury has been treated every day. As of today there's been nothing to indicate he'll miss the match, which not only would be fitting for a man who's been in MLS for so long but also considering his value to the team's defense. The only thing worth monitoring here is whether or not it will be tender enough to handle the work load or the hacks he'll surely suffer.

After 3 losses and 2 draws to start the Savarese era Portland has prospered by understanding his Italian inspired approach built on a frustrating defense and opportunistic offense. Defensively they're not as suffocating as SKC and they don't press in the fashion of RBNY, but they specialize in eliminating channels in their defensive third and employing a rapid counter attack that, if effective, can tire an opposing team that must constantly reset with each attack. Offensively Portland doesn't rely on a pure striker - Valeri and Blanco account for almost half their 63 goals from midfield positions - but instead looks to break in rotation and force opposing teams to react in coverage, often getting match-ups that favor surprising runs from the likes of Chara and Blanco. It's not exactly as effectively done as the AC Milan sides of a generation ago but when Portland can frustrate their opponents' assault well enough the Timbers are fully capable of slipping in quality shot opportunities and nipping a result. They have, after all, just marched through the post-season notching road wins at FC Dallas and SKC, while clinching the series against Seattle in the Emerald City.

Portland isn't afraid and is experienced. Four of their expected starters played when Portland won the 2015 MLS Cup, and others have been around the MLS block. Plus Portland has been a perennial contestant in the MLS playoffs and, as part of the Cascadian trio, is no stranger to crowds and high pressure games. Savarese, while a first time coach in MLS, has a decent coaching pedigree and, most importantly, has engendered himself to the players and found a system in which the players fully believe and they know they can win. They will roll into Atlanta expecting to win.

While their configuration may vary their overall approach won't. Portland will want to concede possession and encourage Atlanta to push forward and risk overconfidence. They'll likely favor a half-field game that sucks LGP and Parkhurst up high and Garza and Escobar(?) even higher, so that they can counter-attack and use their speed from midfield. Chara will be the key player to watch in terms of what spaces he fills and how much of the game he'll have to spend in recovery or defense. If Portland can force Atlanta to pass around the field and slow down the overall pace of play then the Colombian will have plenty of gas and chances to sneak in and force and Atlanta mistake. If he's having to help cover defensively and spends more time as a release valve for any pressure they're under then it means Portland will likely have fewer quality chances.

Portland doesn't get near as physical as the NY teams so Atlanta will find opportunities to rotate players around the offensive third and probe for lanes in the Portland defense. Here look for Ridgewell and Villafana to try to keep the line of their back 4/5 and choke the ability of Martinez to serve as a point forward. In classic bend-but-don't-break style they'll surrender runs and shots from out high in exchange for minimizing the chances for through passes and shots from within the box. If Atlanta is reduced to crosses to just Martinez and frustration among the other attackers then the Timbers will feel the game is going their way.

So, what will Atlanta do? TBC...

 

It's been a pleasure. Hope we can do this for many years.

I can't deny the validity behind your suspicions, but I will say on United's behalf that pretty much everything they've done in managing the franchise has been the opposite of those Atlanta teams which fostered that feeling. It is the first team we've built from the bottom up, and have truly taken on even before it's won anything. And it's not like Portland is chopped liver.

Time to make history.

 

So what will Atlanta do?

Conventional thinking says the team stays the course with their post-season approach, which is to be defensive minded in limiting mistakes in their own half and trusting the offensive talent will eventually break through. Escobar and Remedi have played well enough to support this notion and their speed on defense will be critical in how the Stripes defend against the Portland counter. However, this is a one-off match unlike the two-legged affairs vs the NY teams and Portland comes in as a confident underdog who will be content to sit back and soak up pressure, so while limiting giveaways by the defense is critical the pressures that LGP, Parkhurst and company can expect will take a different shape than the past four games. Ebobisse is, shall we say, a different calibre of striker than BWP or David Villa.

This, and Portland's performances in the SKC series, tells me the keys defensively will be reading the Timbers runs and how Atlanta manages the shifts in man-marking. It might also mean Remedi and Larentowicz will have specific charges to stay thisclose to Valeri and to possibly sacrifice the high line in order to keep Chara and Blanco in front of them. Blanco made an excellent shot from distance last week but let's be honest, that's not happening every game and Atlanta will be happy to let the Timber take their shots from afar rather than concede restart opportunities or shots from close in. So I expect at least 1 deep lying defender and one of the defensive midfielders to sit back more than usual, at least early in the game, and let them focus on the Portland attack while Garza and Franco push forward.

When the teams played in Atlanta about the middle of the season Portland held on for a 1-1 draw. That match featured no Remedi, had Ambrose starting at left back and Barco ahead of him. More importantly Nagbe left the game around the 60' mark as Atlanta was in the ascendancy and Portland keeper Attinella had one of his best games of the year with 9 saves. Portland extended their longest unbeaten run while Atlanta was feeling grump after getting bounced by Chicago from the US Open Cup. Suffice to say a few things have changed since that time. Nagbe has now solidified his role as the midfield general, coordinating the transition and allowing Almiron more chances to focus on attack than on recovery, while Remedi has improved his partnership with Larentowicz that has given Atlanta's defense much better coverage up front. (Just ask the NY teams about this after scoring just 2 goals against the Stripes in 4 games.) Valeri was last year's league MVP but can he and the Timbers continue to defy their expected-goals stats and win a one-off match if the opposing team can still be an offensive threat while 4 (very solid) players guard central defense?

If Atlanta can play their usual wide game AND not concede too many opportunities for Portland to advance then it will reduce the Timbers to a purely counter-attacking scheme that at least becomes predictable, especially should Atlanta secure the first goal. And Atlanta is content to be patient while allowing this to happen based on their recent form. Should Atlanta have sloppy moments in the back and/or concede first then it becomes a chess match to see if Atlanta will shift to get players higher or substitute a player (Escobar?) to add Villalba to the attack.

Should Portland win then it's truly destiny, because they've secured points in the postseason in games that simply broke their way, very much like their last visit to Atlanta. That's what they do. But that's usually not something consistent enough to yield a trophy, especially in a tournament format where each opponent gets tougher. Atlanta has a defensive record to match SKC's AND a more potent offense, and they have just as much a team of destiny belief about themselves. No doubt Tata has reminded them how their laziness cost them the Supporters' Shield, so this is their quest.

The Stripes build a 2-0 lead and forces Portland to chase the match. A third late in the 2nd half seals the deal.

Atlanta 3 -1 Portland

 

Happy MLS Cup Final Day, everyone!

LET'S.
DO.
THIS!