Midseason Reset 2017: You Be the GM (and the coach)

Kreis also started the overhaul of the team before Lagerway came on board, including trading away Klein and Cunningham.

 

Did Kries make the Beckerman for Medhi Ballouchy trade?

Side note: I was in the concourse during halftime vs MNUFC just to get out of my seat for a bit. I saw Craig Waibel walking and reached out to give him a high five. He saw that and gave me one and then he stopped and talked to me and my buddy for probably 7 minutes of halftime.

We told him we'd been STH since year 1 and we weren't going anywhere. We'd been there throughout the bad times and good times and now the bad times again. But we couldn't wait for the good times to begin again. He agreed and then said that help is coming. That there were two deals done, but he couldn't say anything because the window isn't officially open. These weren't "done" deals that were still waiting on visas or league approval. These were already signed, sealed and delivered deals that will be announced on day 1 of the window.

He said they still have to make room on the current roster for these two new players but he wasn't sure who would be moved. And that the players still had time to make an impression to change his mind.

It honestly wasn't anything we haven't heard on First Take or other radio interviews. But I thought it was interesting he would talk to a fan like that. I appreciated it.

My guess is a CB is gone (Schuler?) and a MF is gone as well (Sunny?).

 

Interesting...

 

Good to see we actually have a couple of deals officially done. Now we just have to hope they're in our areas of need and actual upgrades over what we have. It does give me some hope though.

 

TWO NEW WINGERS!!!!

 

Two new 5' 5" wingers!

What if the two signings are Monarchs players?

 

Velasquez and Hoffman to the first team! Defense is fine!

But seriously I hope that Waibel isnt ********ing around. He would gain a lot of credit if his two players are legit.

 

I mean, with how the top two players (Vela and Hoffman, as stated) are playing, they deserve recognition. however, he is on record as saying he wants a full year from them with the Monarchs before promotion.





So I fully expect it to be Vela and Hoffman

 

It'll be hilarious if it is, I'd think that would all but seal Waibel's fate as GM of this club.

If the two signings seriously aren't at least one high quality CB (and one or more of the CB's currently on the roster gone) then this team will continue to be completely mediocre.

 

I'm not above giving those two a shot, but they're not going to magically fix all our woes. We don't even know if Hoffman can hack it at the top, and as good as Vela is, I'm still a bit leery on whether that will translate into high level MLS play. I will say that I'd love to see them signed on in the offseason, since it should hopefully be part of the massive overhaul this team needs.

Depending on how the summer goes, I won't necessarily be upset if we do sign them, but I will be if this is all we get in the summer.

 

So the SJE game made me realize how low my expectations had really gotten for this team--I used to feel we could win every game, but that expectation has faded the last few years.

So I started pondering--what does it take to be successful in MLS? Is it players? Blanco never got Chicago anywhere, Beckham didn't work magic the first few years. So even with DPs, and the "right" DPs, it does not ensure success. Why?

Because MLS is still a salary capped league (and rightly so). But in a salary capped league you need a couple of things: strategic vision and the right managers to execute that vision. When I say "managers", that is everybody on the soccer side.

Take our glory years. While it is easy to say "The Diamond" over and over as if it was one of the crystals on "Land of the Lost"...it did represent part of the strategic vision. We were going to start at the back with solid defense and play possession soccer--the diamond helped execute that the way Kreis saw the game.

But look at what that entailed. Strong at the back. We went out and got Nat (the director) and Olave (the physical specimen). We then found the right guys for possession soccer, guys willing to buy into the plan and hustle and do the dirty work. Could argue that grabbing Grabavoy was just as instrumental to our success as Olave in that regard.

So we need our managers to be on the same page--GM, Coach, Scouts, etc. to rally around the vision and then everyone do their particular job to execute on that vision--scouting and obtaining the right players for that vision, etc.

No signings are going to make us a championship side until we can articulate that vision. In a salary capped league, your managers make a WORLD of difference. Look at LAG, and how they finally figured it out in the Beckham years--they got rid of Lalas as GM, brought in il Bruce. And won a string. We had Jason and Garth. Both lost that management talent, and both are wandering in the wilderness.

Look at Jason...has he found the same success here? No. But Garth? Yes. (Made two dramatic changes mid year and has a trophy to show for it.)

Management matters. We are not going anywhere until that changes. We might get lucky this window and bring in a good player. But for that player to be a difference maker, depends on how he fits into our overall vision. And we don't have that. Maybe Petke is the right coach, maybe not. But Waibel ain't the guy.

#rantover

 

You are absolutely correct. A couple of comments:

1. I think the Kreis/Lagerway vision was about building a strong back line with wide backs who could pass well and move forward, and building a strong spine. IMO Jason more or less "lucked' into the diamond. The team was struggling with the main formation he was using and decided to surprise an opponent with a look they were not prepared to see. The diamond. As that game progressed the there were glimpses of "oooooh, I likes that" play. He started using it more and more after that.

2. I honestly think the current organization does have a vision. They don't talk about it, but their actions spell it out. Create an effective offense first, Then the midfield. Then the back. They want to play with a high line and score goals, with the wings being very important to the attack. As has been noted by posters on this board, Petke could park the bus and probably eke out a few more points....but he hasn't. He's telling the team "This is our formation and our strategy. I want you to learn it and understand it. We will give up some goals now in order to build our future". That effective offense hasn't been created yet, but I think we can see that it has improved.

Of course, I could be dead wrong about this. I probably am.

 

Here's my roster concern: how many RSL players look like they should make more on their next contract? Definitely Lennon. Schmidt will be more; still not the median, but above the minimum. That's about it.

Now, how many should be signed for significantly less? Or somewhat less? Among the team members making more than the median, there's absolutely nobody up for a big increase, and more due for a cut than even remaining the same. It's a bad situation.

There are a bunch of young players on the team who will be due for at least modest increases in pay soon. Nearly all of them are among the lowest paid on the team, but may as well roll them out as often as possible.

The last game was generally good for putting out youth, with only a couple caveats. We know what Wingert can do, and it's good enough for a utility reserve guy. Would rather not have seen Silva in the attacking half, too. I'm all for playing Plata to help move him, and Mulholland isn't ideal, but he does set a tone of hard work in games and practices, and can fill a spot effectively enough. If we're probably going to lose, may as well play as many kids as we can.

 

The offensive talent is there. There is just no collective mind set. Each player is playing a different game. Lennon gets too secluded out wide and instead of trying to beat 1 defender, whips in low percentage crosses. Plata takes on 2-3 guys all the time and loses possession. Or sends a poor pass to the other team. Movsysian doesn't move into dangerous spots. Savarino seems to have given up on his team mates and just shoots from anywhere now. Etc, etc. the offense is a mess because they don't work together.

What annoys me about yesterday is I saw a team of talented individuals against another team with less collective talent but a unified game. San Jose isn't better than RSL. They just play better. The ball moved quicker, they connected dangerous passes quickly. RSL? Slow ball movement and no threatening runs or passes. The best couple of exciting offensive moments we had was having Sava and Bofo at different times dribbling at the defense. Because it took so long to get to that dribble, they quickly find themselves surrounded by defenders with nobody to pass too and attack over.

 

I get that they might be trying to go for offense first, but I feel like that's the wrong way to go about things. Because of how many goals we give up per game, and especially how early a lot of them are, we're putting far too much pressure on the offense to make up for the defense. It's probably why we keep trying to shoot from 30 yards out, whipping in crosses to nobody, or playing the pointless long balls out from the back. On top of all that, the other team has a much easier time defending, because they put in a couple of early goals, so they can sit back and defend a little more, and hit us on the counter as we throw everyone forward.

As boring as it can be, I'd rather get the defense sorted and grind out some 0-0 draws instead of watching the team panic because yet again we've allowed an early goal. Having the defense sorted will also help the offense, since they can actually take the time to build an attack, instead of feeling like they've got to rush and get a goal before we're scored on again.

 

If my math and memory are correct, RSl fired Coach Ellinger after 4 games in 2007. Kreis was hired and RSL earned 25 points over the final 26 matches. That's 0.96 points per game.

RSL has earned 12 points in the first 13 matches of Petke. That's a 0.92 rate. This will get better won't it?

 

Not this year.

Unless the two wingers Waibel brings in during the next window pan out.

So no.

 

I kept track of a few stats to compare Kreis to Ellinger back for the year or so after the change was made. The biggest statistical difference between Kreis and Ellinger was the goals against per game. We very quickly saw the focus on defense. The team gave up fewer goals and began getting draws (Defense buys draws, offense buys wins).

So, we think we see a difference with Petke in an emphasis on offense? Let's look at some stats. I've not looked as I write this, but these are my hypotheses: 1) Our goals-for/game should be higher and 2) We should be earning more wins at the expense of 3) fewer draws. Let's see how many of those predictions have any support.

Now, I go gather the numbers and see what they say.

2017 Petke: GF 15 (1.15GF/G) GA 31 (2.38 GA/G); 2017 pre-Petke: GF 3 (0.60 GF/G) GA 8 (1.60 GA/G); 2016: GF 44 (1.29 GF/G) GA 46 (1.35 GA/G)

Goals for are higher than the start of the season, but not higher than 2016. Goals allowed were worse for 2017, but much worse in the Petke era. This is consistent with a more offensive emphasis compared to early 2017, but less so compared to 2016.

RSL has 5 (38%) wins 0 (0%) draws and 8 (62%) losses in the Petke Era (I had no idea we had zero draws under Petke). That compares to 2017 prior to Petke of 0 (0%) wins, 2 (40%) draws and 3 (60%) losses and 2016 record of 12 (35%) wins, 10 (30%) draws and 12 (35%) losses. Combining 2016 and start of 2017: 12 (31%) wins, 12 (31%) draws, 15 (38%) losses.

So, we are winning slightly more and drawing less, losing somewhat more (though in comparison to start of 2017, maybe not). Considering the personnel are the the same, not tailored to the style he wants, it's consistent with the hypothesis though not evidence I'd take to the bank.

The evidence is not terribly strong, but it leans in the direction of Petke focusing on offense at the expense of defense.

I personally disagree with the philosophy. First to have to stop losing before you can think about winning, otherwise inconsistency will undermine the team's confidence. They will be nervous every time they go out.

But, I'm not being paid to be in the hot seat and he may know how he's going to solve the defensive issues...?

 

Maybe Petke is working on the offense because he believes Waibel when he says he's got a DP-level centerback all ready to sign.





If so, we're doomed.

 

Or he knows there's no defensive help coming and thinks he's the incoming wingers will pan out.

Yup, either way, this looks like the case.

 

Ian Joy hits nail on head. So sad and unnerving.

Watching my former club @RealSaltLake is so frustrating! They are now completely unrecognizable. It'll take years to rebuild that club.

 

Funny enough, I only saw that tweet myself because the RSL team account retweeted it. Kind of different than what the team account normally does.

 

From the very wild speculation realm. Both Shore and Dom Kinnear sacked on the same day. Is this a mere coincidence or could one have happened with knowledge of the other? Waibel played for Kinnear, and this would be the first chance for Petke to bring an assistant on board - his own guy. Could Dom be that guy? Would Dom take an assistant job? Also, RSL was just in San Jose and word on the street before that match was that Dom was going to be yanked. Not unreasonable to guess that Waibel at the very least met up with Kinnear the night before the match as former teammates and colleagues often do.

Again pure speculation and almost certainly not the case, but an interesting thought if you let your mind wander. Impossible to imagine Dom taking an assistant gig, especially so quickly. Would be a huge plus to any bench, though.

 

I know that Kinnear has no experience as a GM, but is that even a possibility? I'll admit I'm grasping at straws here, but there are so few straws left, because, well...you know.