Mexican Elections -- Too Close to Call

Discussion in 'Elections' started by MattR, Jul 3, 2006.

  1. MattR

    MattR Member+

    Jun 14, 2003
    Reston
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    An indication that Mexico is striving to be more like its northern neighbor, Mexicans are split 50/50 in the lefty-moonbat-commie camp, and the rape-and-pillage-to-get-rich camp.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060703/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/mexico_elections_29

    Please note: Mexico's democracy has often involved fixing the vote in favor of those in power, the last election that was fixed was done so blaming a 'computer crash.' There is a thread on the U.S.A's attempts to fix elections with computers over in the elections sub-forum.

     
  2. MattR

    MattR Member+

    Jun 14, 2003
    Reston
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh, here's another interesting thing for people to comment on.

    This election was the first time Mexicans living abroad (mostly the 11 million in the U.S.) were allowed to vote. Only 32,000 of them voted.

    So, out of 11 million potential voters, on 32,000 bothered.

    Looks like those Mexicans are really learning the culture of their adopted homeland.
     
  3. michael greene

    Oct 31, 2002
    That is truly an amazing figure. Consider the $ the ex-pats send back home, you'd think all the parties would be fighting like hell for that slice of the electorate.

    Perhaps they are just so sick of Mexican political corruption they don't want to vote? Or maybe they are worried in the current US political climate that registering to vote in the Mexican election would bring La Migra down on them?

    No matter what AMLO decides to do if he loses, there is a good chance his supporters are gonna go nutty. It's going to be a real tense week down there.
     
  4. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Actually, it is split about 35/35 in the lefty-moonbat-commie camp, and the rape-and-pillage-to-get-rich camp, with the remaining 30 in the corruption is fun camp
     
  5. That was in 1988. One of the main factors on Mexico first bloodless power transition is the creaton of arguably world's safest electoral sistem, also the most expensive one.
     
  6. MattR

    MattR Member+

    Jun 14, 2003
    Reston
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, after 1998, the United States leaned heavily on Mexico for a transparent voting system.

    This has resulted in one of the most transparent and monitored voting system in the world -- far superior to that in the United States. Machines with verified paper trails. Exactly what the U.S. refuses to do.

    Unfortunately, the logical reality of the voting system may be lost on the supporters of the losing party -- and the realities of former voter fraud may be seen as proof that the current election is flawed as well.
     
  7. michael greene

    Oct 31, 2002
    I didn't realize that to vote you had to return to Mexico for paperwork. No wonder the number was so low:


    http://www.wjla.com/news/stories/0706/341292.html

    Their elation faded, however, when they learned that voters would need a current electoral card, and that the application deadline was nearly six months before the election. Furthermore, anyone needing a new card had to apply in Mexico - a risky chore for an illegal immigrant.
     
  8. MattR

    MattR Member+

    Jun 14, 2003
    Reston
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    LEFTY MOONBAT CONSPIRACY THEORY:

    Is it possible that Vicente Fox was worried that the illegal aliens would return home to vote against his protege', and asked President Bush (his good friend) to bring up the whole 'build the wall and monitor with the Guard' theory to discourage Mexicans from going home to vote, since their return to the U.S would now be much more difficult than normal?
     
  9. nicephoras

    nicephoras A very stable genius

    Fucklechester Rangers
    Jul 22, 2001
    Eastern Seaboard of Yo! Semite
    So, who carried California? I'd bet that's at least 30 electoral votes, although I imagine its negotiable.
     
  10. CrewDust

    CrewDust Member

    May 6, 1999
    Columbus, Ohio
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  11. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Has there been any projections on the Congress? I know Mexico has a mixed direct vote - PR system, and it looks like there was some tactical voting going on. However, I have also seen one blog which said that PAN might win control of Congress, though judging from the numbers, I do not see how.

    What worries me is that like the US, Mexico seems to be polarizing on regional lines also. So that people in say the DF or south may not know many people who voted for Calderon, while in the north, the same goes for ALMO. Which means that a significant number of people will believe the election was stolen, regardless of the result.
     
  12. uclacarlos

    uclacarlos Member+

    Aug 10, 2003
    east coast
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    Obrador is trailing by roughly 400K votes.

    It looks like PAN will hold the presidency and that Calderon will squeeze through w/ the victory.

    Damn.

    Chavez is really, really screwing up Latin American politics. :mad:
     
  13. NGV

    NGV Member+

    Sep 14, 1999
    Do you mean 1988? In any case, I think Mexico's electoral reforms have had a lot more to do with domestic pressures than foreign ones.
     
  14. True.
     
  15. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Actually the percentage of US based Mexicans that voted for Calderon was much higher than the percentage of voters that voted for Calderon in Mexico. Calderon won easily among US based Mexicans. Of course, it was a very small sample, since very few US based Mexicans voted.
     
  16. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And in any event, I think the result was just the opposite -- the announcement of the border fence and the deployment of the National Guard probably hurt Calderon more, as one of the selling points of the PAN is that they can work with the US on losening immigration better than the other candidates.

    But ALMO was the only one asking the right question, namely, why do ambitious workers HAVE to move to the US in order to better their situation.
     
  17. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Chavez gets what he wants. Regardless of what really happened in Mexico, and how clean the elections really were, Chavez is likely to cynically use the 'corruption' in Mexican elections for his own purposes, as he will turn it into some sort of class struggle rethoric, and use his demagogery to gain power. He is dangerously building a cult of personality, and his ambitions of power go beyond Venezuela.
     
  18. obie

    obie New Member

    Nov 18, 1998
    NY, NY
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    With 87% of precincts counted, López Obrador leads Calderón by 1.6%. The leftist is probably going to win.

    I know almost nothing about either of these two other than the standard moonbat vs. moneybags meme, but once again the complete lack of interest in this by the American English-language media is both befuddling and totally predictable. There likely isn't a single other presidency in the world right now that has as much an effect on the US as Mexico's.

    If this stands, who did that prelim count that had Calderón winning?
     
  19. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Actually, this was on the front page of the Chicago Tribune for the past few days.

    According to today's Tribune, with respect to the "uncounted" ballots that Obrador was complaining about, it turns out they were provisional ballots and they were counted. They would have made no difference. As for the recount, it depends where the recount is going faster. I would assume in the iniital count, the first results came in from Mexico City and the north, with the later results coming in from the more rural (and more pro-Ob rador) south.
     
  20. AMAPO

    AMAPO Member

    Mar 8, 2006
    Krypton City
    Club:
    Laredo Heat
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I hope Calderon wins

    as of right now:

    91.03 of votes counted

    PRD Lopez Obrador 36.21%
    PAN Felipe Calderon 35.05%
    1% = 400,000 votes

    source: Reforma

    First Count Results:
    PAN 14.027,214 36.38%
    PRD 13,624,506 35.34%
    PRI 8,318,886 21.57%

    Source: UNAM Elecciones 2006
     
  21. AMAPO

    AMAPO Member

    Mar 8, 2006
    Krypton City
    Club:
    Laredo Heat
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    update
    Vote counted: 91.86%
    Lopez Obrador: 36.14%
    Felipe Calderon: 35.10%

    the reason why LO has more % is cause the started counting the southern states + Mexico City first which are pro Obrador.
     
  22. Well, thats why that count is just an aproximation. Such little diference is bettwen the error Margin.

    Update:

    Vote counted: 95.72%
    AMLO 35.81%
    Calderon 35.37%
     
  23. obie

    obie New Member

    Nov 18, 1998
    NY, NY
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    99% reporting, and Calderón now leads by 0.3%. Mexico has its Florida.

    It's a blurb on the front page of CNN and MSNBC now, after nothing last night. It's not on Fox News at all.
     
  24. AMAPO

    AMAPO Member

    Mar 8, 2006
    Krypton City
    Club:
    Laredo Heat
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    99.94% of votes counted (20,000 votes left to count)

    Felipe Calderon 35.87%
    Lopez Obrador 35.32%

    OFFICIAL: Felipe Calderon Wins with +-200,000 votes!!!
     
  25. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    I don't know about the Mexican constitutional matters, but for the good of Democracy, a good solution might be that they do a second round of voting, without the PRI and the minor candidates.
     

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