Matchday 34: TOR v ATL

Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United
BMO Field — Toronto
October 28 — 4:30 pm ET
Fox SportSoutheast

MLSsoccer.com preview here.
AJC.com Atlanta United page here.

We all know the scenarios: Atlanta can win the Supporters' Shield with a win or a RB loss, but seeing as RB are arguably the league's hottest/strongest team right now and they're hosting lowly Orlando, who you know won't fight for our benefit, Atlanta needs to win. They need to win to show they can do it, to keep confidence high, and to keep other teams doubting. Anything less and all the hard work for this season will be put to the test mentally with every playoff game.

I'm sure when the league and broadcast partners placed this match up at the end of the season they envisioned a 1v2 contest that would shape the top of the eastern standings heading into the postseason. The game will have that affect but not quite in the way intended. But let's not assume that means Toronto has nothing left for which to play, or that they'll be easy pickings. Their table position is due in very large part to injuries and early season struggles when TFC chased the CONCACAF Champions League, and they have shown glimpses of the team that set the MLS points record last season.

Oh yeah, and Atlanta has never beaten Toronto. Three games played, three 2-2 draws.

And as if this isn't enough we all know Atlanta will be without their best player in Miguel Almiron. Villalba is considered available, which is a plus, but his form is considered uncertain. But champions find ways to win through tough circumstances, no?

Toronto comes in without Jozy Altidore. US fans among us might offer the snide remark about that improving the Reds' chances, but Jozy is the kind of larger post-up striker that has caused some problems for the Stripes in the past, giving Giovinco and Osorio someone around which they can bounce passes and force gaps in opposing defenses. In his absence Toronto has tried (as best I can tell) to work with paired strikers, but this sometimes forces Bradley to come forward too deep too often and the Reds have a had a LOT of difficulties maintaining the possession and passing that was their trademark last season. That's made all the difference. The Reds have scored about 20 goals less than last season and conceded almost 30 more. Their ability to dominate games has not been there. Not for full matches, and certainly not for most of the season. Among other minor changes they miss Steven Beitashour (now at LAFC) as part of that midfield and keeper Alex Bono has been decidedly shaky, and with a few players enduring long spells on the sidelines they never found a formula that could stick. In this sense they're very much like the Chicago side Atlanta faced last week: Most of the same elements from last year's dangerous team but with enough pieces missing to throw everything off.

Which puts the onus on Atlanta. If the Stripes play to their potential they should have the better of the game, just as they did last week vs Chicago. Especially if Villalba plays at near 100% Atlanta has much more potent attacking potential and should be good enough to keep Toronto's defense on their heels. Most importantly, if Nagbe and the midfield can play smart defensively they should comfortably keep Toronto's attack reduced to a lonely and stifled Giovinco much like Montreal achieved in their win vs the Reds last week. So we need LGP and Parky to minimize giveaways and errors, and to ensure Atlanta can properly build from deep. Would also help if Martinez could not get frustrated too early or play too cute with close in chances. He missed a couple solid opportunities last week due to what looked like a lack of focus and an agitated mental state. If Atlanta can get him on the board early that would go a long way to taking the 3 points.

Toronto has already said they won't lay down or simply play the scrubs. They want to do their part to minimize the chances of a team surpassing their MLS points record, and a win against Atlanta to close the season would serve them well heading into the off season by showing the team, and their fans, they can recover that top rate form.

Atlanta, for their part, now knows the future lies without Martino so it's time to see if the team will be rocked as a result or if they'll rally around this and make the playoff run a grand send off. To his credit Martino has said all the right things, all things considered. If he's as good as we hope and if his rapport with the players is true, hopefully they're all respectful of the move and they see the opportunity that still sits in front of them.

I'm an optimist and that often impairs my prognostic abilities, but I'm thinking Atlanta as a team has probably sat down, grasped the reality before them and said to themselves "We can do this." Like last week this won't be a stellar showing, but Atlanta hasn't reached this point by fluke, either. If they're sharp they win this.

TOR 1-2 ATL. Martinez and Barco find the net and for once Atlanta keeps Toronto at bay.

 

I'm miffed. Not for the loss but the form in which it took. A classic "Atlanta looks like they have no Plan B" moment. Will process the moment and offer comments later.

 

So I've had time to recover and assess the match.

- Full credit to TFC. They had their own injury issues to deal with and had less incentive to turn out for the day, but turn out they did and they were the better team. I'm sure their fans were left wondering "Where was that when we played... everyone else?!" They earned the points on the pitch.

- I'm still confused as to the basis of the flag on Gressel's goal. Best I can tell the asst. ref felt Josef was offside but waited to see how the play evolved in case he didn't need to stop the flow. But Josef made two touches before the flag went up and it's the ref's call whether or not to stop play on an offside, so the flag should've gone up right away if that was the call. If that wasn't the call then I got nothing and the goal should've stood.

Would that have changed the outcome? Maybe, but I'm not blaming the ref at all for Sunday.

- By my count Atlanta had at least 14 unforced errors, mostly on defense, including two that lead to the Reds' first 2 goals. That's really bad for a big game for a team vying for "most points ever!" They really need to adapt better game plans for when Almiron isn't available and improving possession and advancement would go a looong way in this regard. The sloppy give-aways and kickball was not worthy of top flight ball, and certainly not fun to watch. Combo of Remedi, Larentowicz, Escobar, Nagbe and Barco wasn't cutting it. Somewhere within that grouping was a failure to hold the ball, slow the play during panicky moments, and building sustainable attacks. Nagbe has great control but was lost in defensive and offensive duties. Jeff had an off game, I feel, as he and Barco were routinely hounded when they had the ball.

- Barco? He's like Alexis Sanchez to me right now in that his inability to play with a team means he's really skilled but often a detriment in the pitch. He didn't make space for others, his play didn't yield quality shot attempts, and he isn't much of a defender. For the price I'm calling this year a bust, because at the least the team would've faired better at times with a proper left side attacker. You know, like the one they let go to get Barco.

- Gressel is good enough to warrant starting. More importantly he needs to be on the right, so no more experiments with him on the left, please, unless it's a throw away game.