Mac Hermann Trophy Winner

Discussion in 'College & Amateur Soccer' started by theatric7, Sep 24, 2018.

  1. theatric7

    theatric7 Member

    Nov 12, 2011
    It seems as though we can skip the Semifinalist and Finalist versions of this list as we already have a winner and we are still in the month of September.

    Denver's, Andre Shinyashiki already has 18 goals under his belt (more than last year's winner). He has accumulated 4 hat tricks and a stat that I just read, has scored more goals than 193 out of 206 teams by himself.

    Would love to get a history lesson from some of you that have been here longer, but how does this scoring pace compare to players in the past?
     
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  2. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    #2 Sandon Mibut, Sep 25, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2018
    His current pace would be one the highest, if not the highest, of the past 20-25 years.

    No one in D-I has scored more than 30 goals since Wojtek Krakowiak of Clemson had 31 in 1998.

    Shinyashiki has 19 goals through 9 games. He has 9 regular season games left and likely two conference tournament games and at least one NCAA Tournament game.

    Eventually, he's very likely to slow down. Let's say he only averages a goal a game the rest of the way. That's still 12 more goals, which would put him at 31, as well.

    If he exceeds that rate, and/or Denver goes on a long post-season run and gives him 2-3 more games, he could chase the second highest all-time record for goals in a season, which is 36 by Wake Forest's Mark Erwin in 1983.

    The all-time record is likely out of reach. That was 46 goals by Appalachian State's Thompson Usiyan in 1980 (in just 17 games!).

    Basically, Shinyashiki is on an amazing and historic run of scoring.

    The only thing I could see keeping him from the Hermann is if his scoring dries up completely OR Denver's strength of schedule is held against him. Denver's strength of schedule is only 164 and they haven't even played most of their conference games and in the Summit that includes games against Eastern Illinois (currently 135 in the RPI), Western Illinois (139) and Oral Roberts (79).

    Fortunately for them, Purdue-Fort Wayne is, somehow, currently 8th in the RPI so that will help (though it will start dropping soon), and they have an impressive non-con schedule that still includes games against Virginia (6), Saint Louis (36), Maryland (42) and Stanford (43).

    UVa currently has the top defense in the country, statistically, and we know Stanford is always tough on defense and Maryland is no slouch. If Shinyashiki is still scoring against those guys, we'll know he's legit and the Hermann will be a no-brainer.

    If he falls off at all, a few candidates I could see challenging him are:

    *Indiana senior D/M Andrew Gutman, who has 6 goals, 4 assists in 8 games while leading a defense that has allowed just 4 goals while playing one of the nation's top schedules;

    *Wake Forest junior midfielder Bruno Lapa, who has 6 goals and 5 assists in 8 games for the top-ranked team in the country playing in the toughest conference;

    *Portland junior forward Benji Michel, who has 8 goals and one assist in 9 games for an unbeaten team;

    *UCLA junior forward Mohammed Kamara, who has 4 goals in 6 games and is considered one of the top pro prospects in college soccer.

    In a normal year, these guys would be legit Hermann contenders. But the way Shinshaki is scoring, it probably won't matter.

    (BTW, Shinshaki, Michel and Lapa were all teammates together in HS at Montverde Academy. I don't follow HS soccer but I'm gonna assume that was a pretty good team.)
     
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  3. stphnsn

    stphnsn Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
    he's a fullback. what he's done so far this season has been remarkable. when will teams start marking his backside runs? hopefully never.
     
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  4. Vilhelm

    Vilhelm Member

    Sep 9, 2005
    That's a great nugget.
     
  5. theatric7

    theatric7 Member

    Nov 12, 2011
    From Lapa's bio, they went 129-0-7. That record makes a lot of sense knowing who was on that team.

    Watching Gutman in a few games this year, he has been a treat to watch. He's put up incredible numbers offensively as a back, and I have yet to see him get beat 1v1 defensively.
     
  6. collegesoccer

    collegesoccer Member+

    Apr 11, 2005
    MontVerde Academy is a professional storage space for agents to bring international players through the US system...not exactly a couple kids from the neighborhood getting together. They do the same thing for basketball.
     
  7. BigRedFootie

    BigRedFootie Member+

    Jan 31, 2003
    B-town
    I have, but his offensive upside way outweighs that. I'd want him on my team, that's for sure.
     
  8. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    So we may need to rethink anointing Andre Shinyashiki the Hermann. Tonight against Maryland, he was held scoreless, the third time in four games that’s happened. On top of that, it appears he can’t produce against good teams. Denver is 25th in RPI and only 136th in strength of schedule.

    Here’s what Shinyashiki has done against the teams on Denver’s schedule, in reverse order of their RPI: (Italics are ties, bold losses)

    195. Monmouth – 3/1
    170. Eastern Illinois – 0/0
    164. North Florida – 3/0
    119. Harvard – 2/1
    110. Omaha – 4/0
    96. Tulsa – 2/0
    76. Southern Methodist – 1/0
    70. San Francisco – 3/0
    67. Purdue-Fort Wayne – 2/0
    37. Washington – 1/0
    32. Colgate – 0/0
    31. Creighton – 0/0
    17. Maryland – 0/0
    3. Virginia – 0/0 (no shots)


    In 5 games against teams in the top 40, one goal, 0 assists, his team is 1-2-1. In 10 games against teams above 40, 20 goals, 2 assists and his team is 9-0-1.

    He has games remaining against 185. Western Illinois, 42. Saint Louis, 20. Stanford and 152. Oral Roberts. If he puts up any numbers against SLU and Stanford, we can re-evaluate. But right now, he looks like a guy who padded his stats against bad teams.

    Meanwhile…

    *Andrew Gutman, a Sr. left back for Indiana, with 8 goals and 5 assists in 13 games and helping a defense post a 0.60 goals allowed average. Indiana is 1 in the RPI and their strength of schedule is 4. He had an assist against 2. Wake Forest, a goal and an assist vs. 56. Dartmouth, a goal against 12. Connecticut, a goal against 46. VCU, 2 goals against 54. Wisconsin and 2 goals against 17. Maryland, the same Maryland side Shinyashiki failed to score against. Again, he’s a defender.

    *JJ Williams, a Jr. at Kentucky (8/86) has 11 goals and 3 assists in 13 games. More impressively, he has 4 goals and one assist, combined, in wins over No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Louisville.

    *Wake Forest (2/11) has two players putting up gaudy numbers in the ACC. Jr. Bruno Lapa has 9 goals and 8 assists in 14 games and soph. Omir Fernandez has 10/4 in 15 games. Fernandez has scored against Indiana, 2 against 21. NC State, a goal vs. 11. Virginia Tech, 1/1 against 9. Duke, 2/1 vs. 26. High Point. Lapa has assists against Indiana and NC State, goals vs. Va. Tech and Duke. Granted they have each other and a lot of talented teammates, but they play a very hard schedule and have produced against good teams.

    *Cal Jennings, a Jr. F at Central Florida (14/61), is second in D-I in scoring with 17 goals and 4 assists in 12 games. He has an assist against Virginia Tech, a goal against 36. West Virginia, 2 vs. 96 Tulsa (same as Shinyashiki), a goal vs. SMU (also the same) and a hat-trick against 44. Florida Gulf Coast.

    *Saint Mary’s (7/169) has a worse strength of schedule than Denver but they lead D-I in goals scored and defense and are one of two unbeaten teams left and the only one of them to not tie a game. SMC is led by Jr. F Jake Rudel, who has 12 goals and 3 assists in 13 games. He has a goal against 55. Marist, a goal against 18. UC Irvine and 2 against 33. Pacific.

    Shinyashiki has still had a great year and if he scores 3-4 more goals he’ll probably have too many for the Hermann voters to ignore and I doubt few of them will look at closely at the numbers as I have.

    But if who you score against and strength of schedule matters, Shinyashiki shouldn’t be a slam dunk and other guys should get some serious consideration.
     
  9. JoeSoccerFan

    JoeSoccerFan Member+

    Aug 11, 2000
    I think your analysis is on-point. However, I'm going to quibble on a few things.

    "he can’t produce against good teams" - I would counter, he hasn't produced against good teams. While his 2 SOG against MD, were better than his 0 Shots against UVA.

    He doesn't have a wealth of pro caliber teammates, either. So much of his game requires more individual effort to break-down the opposing defense which he can do against lower quality opponents.

    For the Hermann, his goal scoring achievement in 2018 almost dictates his winning. But, your analysis may predict his future professional success.
     
  10. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    So Denver lost to Stanford last night 1-0 so that's yet another game against a top 40 team where Shinyahiski hasn't scored.

    Shinyahiki has 24 goals but only one against a team in the top 40. Updated...
    (Losses in bold, ties in italics)

    198. Monmouth – 3/1
    173. Western Illinois - 1/1
    170. Eastern Illinois – 0/0
    169. North Florida – 3/0
    132. Harvard – 2/1
    92. Omaha – 4/0
    96. Tulsa – 2/0
    77. Southern Methodist – 1/0
    68. Purdue-Fort Wayne – 2/0
    56. San Francisco – 3/0
    49. Saint Louis - 2/0
    38. Colgate – 0/0
    36. Creighton – 0/0
    31. Washington – 1/0
    17. Maryland – 0/0
    7. Stanford - 0/0
    3. Virginia – 0/0 (no shots)


    Vs. top 40: 6 games, 1 goal, 0 assists
    Vs. 49 and below: 11 games, 23 goals, 3 assists

    Kudos to Denver for being willing to travel to UVa, Maryland, Creighton, SMU and Stanford. That's ambitious and should be appreciated.

    But even in doing so, and even with six top 40 games, Denver's SOS is only 112.

    Compare that to Cal Jennings, who is second in scoring - 18 goals and 4 assists in 13 games - and Central Florida. Their SOS is 39. He's also played fewer games because UCF had games postponed/cancelled because of weather.

    And Andrew Gutman continues to score as a left back. Playing the 11th toughest schedule in the country, he has 9 goals and 6 assists in 15 games and is part of a defense averaging 0.55 goals per game, which is 7th in the country.

    So do we give the award for the best season in the country to someone who dominates average and bad teams but has below average numbers against good teams? Or do we give it to a player with stats that aren't quite as good but has played much better teams?
     
  11. stphnsn

    stphnsn Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
    gutman was a monster again yesterday in a nationally televised game. he forced the save that the keeper spilled and was tapped in for the winner.
     
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  12. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    If I were to name the semifinalists for the Hermann this year, they would be:

    Omir Fernandez, So. M, 1. Wake Forest - 16-1-0 (3 Strength Of Schedule)
    17 games, 10 goals, 6 assists

    Andrew Gutman, Sr. D, 2. Indiana - 15-2-0 (10 SOS)
    16 games, 9 goals, 7 assists, leads a defense with a 0.53 GAA

    Cal Jennings, Jr. F, 10. Central Florida - 11-2-2 (37 SOS)
    14 games, 19 goals, 4 assists

    Mauricio Pineda, Jr. M/D, 3. North Carolina - 12-2-1 (22 SOS)
    15 games, 4 goals, 4 assists, part of defense with a 0.38 GAA

    Jake Rudel, Jr. F, 8. St. Mary's - 15-0-1 (180 SOS)
    16 games, 12 goals, 5 assists, only unbeaten team in D-I.

    Andre Shinyashiki, Sr. F, 17. Denver - 12-3-2 (102 SOS)
    17 games, 24 goals, 3 assists

    JJ Williams, Jr. F, 11. Kentucky - 14-1-1 (129 SOS)
    16 games, 14 goals, 5 assists
     
  13. BigRedFootie

    BigRedFootie Member+

    Jan 31, 2003
    B-town
    When was the last time a defender won the Hermann? Chris Wingert in 2003?
     
  14. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    I believe so.

    And he didn't have nearly the numbers that Gutman has. Gutman is more like when Chris Gbandi won it in 2000. (Of course, he also won a national title that year, too.)
     
  15. ThePonchat

    ThePonchat Member+

    #ProRelForUSA
    United States
    Jan 10, 2013
    I've Been Everywhere Man
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Big match-up for JJ Williams on Friday. Conference title on the line as UK hosts ODU (both 6-1-0). Old Dominion forward Max Wilschrey has 11 goals and 6 assists on the season.
     
  16. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Tonight Denver played another bad team so you know what that means, guy: a hattrick - and an assist - for Andre Shinyashiki! (This time against Oral Roberts.)

    This brings Shinyashiki's total to 27 goals with at least two games left for Denver. If he gets to 30, I think it'll be tough to avoid giving him the Hermann, even if he did do almost all his scoring against bad teams.

    Here's the updated RPI for Denver's opponents and what Shinyashiki did against them.


    198. Monmouth – 3/1
    173. North Florida – 3/0
    171. Eastern Illinois – 0/0
    160. Western Illinois - 1/1
    157. Oral Roberts - 3/1
    135. Harvard – 2/1
    95. Purdue-Fort Wayne – 2/0
    90. Tulsa – 2/0
    82. Omaha – 4/0
    75. San Francisco – 3/0
    59. Colgate – 0/0
    55. Southern Methodist – 1/0
    53. Saint Louis - 2/0
    32. Creighton – 0/0
    26. Washington – 1/0
    16. Maryland – 0/0
    7. Stanford - 0/0
    5. Virginia – 0/0 (no shots)


    One goal and no assists in 5 games against the top 50, 10 goals and 3 assists in 5 games against 150 and below and 16 goals and 1 assists in 8 games against the middle of the pack teams.

    It's easy to rag on Shinyashki's production against good teams but 27 goals in 18 games is really impressive.
     
  17. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    So 16. Denver (14-3-2) played a bad team, in this case 170 Eastern Illinois, and won 1-0. Shinyashiki score his 28th.

    Meanwhile, Cal Jennings had a goal and an assist as 12. Central Florida (13-2-2) rallied from two goals down to beat 24. Connecticut 3-2.

    Shinyashiki has 28 goals and 4 assists in 19 games playing the 120th toughest schedule in the country.

    Jennings has 20 goals and 5 assists in 16 games playing the 56th toughest schedule in the country.
     
  18. stphnsn

    stphnsn Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
  19. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Ten goals. For a defender. For the No. 2 team in the country. Playing the 12th toughest schedule.
     
  20. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Meanwhile, JJ Williams had a goal and an assist for No. 8 Kentucky over No. 14 Charlotte in the CUSA semis.

    Williams has 15 goals and 7 assists in 18 games playing the 100th toughest schedule.
     
  21. JoeSoccerFan

    JoeSoccerFan Member+

    Aug 11, 2000
    FYP. JJ should have scored many more goals in this match. Definitely has the athleticism - is he clinical enough?
     
  22. ThePonchat

    ThePonchat Member+

    #ProRelForUSA
    United States
    Jan 10, 2013
    I've Been Everywhere Man
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Gutman is one of the few pro-ready players I’ve seen this season. He’s good. Should be playing pro right now.
     
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  23. #23 willydonc, Nov 11, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2018
    He should have been a pro two years ago, but he's descended from several generations of IU grads so it's likely a degree was a priority. I've been flogging him for two years on the #cf97 tag as able to do anything Brandon Vincent does better, and then some. Even I couldn't foresee how dominant a 2018 season he would have. Since Vincent (a good guy and decent player) announced his retirement, Gutman's #15 shirt should be ready for the Fire, but their historic low ball offers and lack of HG development could lead him to seek a European adventure.
     
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  24. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    So Andre Shinyashiki's season is over after Denver was upended by Air Force 2-1.

    Shinyashiki didn't score for the second straight game and finished the season with 28 goals and 4 assists in 21 games.

    Central Florida also got upset today (by Lipscomb), meaning junior Cal Jennings' season is also is over. The junior from Atlanta finished with 20 goals and 5 assists in 18 games.

    Not all the contenders saw their seasons ends.

    Andrew Gutman had a goal and an assist as Indiana thrashed UConn 4-0. Gutman, who again, is a defender, now has 11 goals and 8 assists and been part of 12 shutouts in 20 games.

    Kentucky's JJ Williams had two goals and an assist as the Wildcats thumped Portland 4-0. The big junior now has 18 goals and 8 assists in 20 games.

    Saint Mary's Jake Rudel didn't score in the unbeaten Gaels 1-0 win over Oregon State, but he'll get a chance to add to his 13 goals and 5 assists against reigning national champ Stanford in the third round.

    And Wake Forest sophomore Omir Fernandez had the winning goal in the Deacs 2-0 win over Colgate, raising his totals to 12 goals and 6 assists.
     
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  25. ThePonchat

    ThePonchat Member+

    #ProRelForUSA
    United States
    Jan 10, 2013
    I've Been Everywhere Man
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Semifinalists have been named:

    [​IMG]
     

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