Tim Payton is a charlatan. From what I have read, this takes place with every takeover. I like the idea of the AST but they had some real idiots representing them with Payton leading the charge.
While I'm in no way defending the Kroenkes, I'm not sure why this is your initial assumption. Reports I've read indicate that this Milan offer is for much more money than Gazidis is currently being paid and would give him some sort of equity in one of the most storied clubs in Europe. Plus, he supposedly is personal friends with these folks.
You might not like Payton and this may take place in every takeover, but it shows that if there were any doubt, Arsenal will end up paying for Kronke's takeover.
This. I think equity in a modern European club is one of those things that you can't say no to. Especially when it's a name like Milan. Plus, he's been at Arsenal for 7-8 years now: he may just want a new challenge. Still seems weird to me that he leaves after winning an 18 month long power struggle, but I don't know Gazidis or his thinking.
When presented with competing hypotheses, one should, generally, select that which has fewer assumptions. M'eh, but what do Franciscan monks know.
Where is the evidence of that? That is what Payton doesn't understand. Idk much about financials and even Payton makes no sense to me.
Yeah, this is pretty stupid. Every corporation has to get some kind of legal advice when evaluating a merger or acquisition offer. Not doing so is a recipe for the board getting sued.
It's an indicator isn't it? If Kroenke sticks the £625k of legal fees on the club, which is nothing to do with club business, it's his business, then I don't think it's a leap to say it's likely he will make the club pay of the debt he incurs for his takeover a la the Glazers. It wouldn't surprise me if he puts the circa £430m he has paid for shares before this over the years on the club too.
They aren't costs incurred by Kroenke that he's having the club pay. It's costs the club is incurring because of the offer. This is pretty standard stuff (though I'll admit that my knowledge of the topic is limited to law school classes and being a research assistant - albeit I took a class with a judge of Delaware's chancery court). See this thread for more detail (GiantGooner appears to work in Investment Banking, so he's a good source for evaluating numbers/mechanics of the transaction): I think this is not the correct interpretation of the relevant section of the Offer Document. Will explain in a brief thread here: https://t.co/jPea2job5C— Giantgooner (@GiantGooner) August 8, 2018
I suspect the above is right on. And it's quite concerning. But another part of me is wondering (hoping?) that this consolidation/privatization move might somehow make it easier for another more promising owner to buy the club, i.e. if KSE gets tired of this "investment". Not that they've shown any signs of becoming bored yet. p.s. Even if that were to happen, the chances of this club returning to any semblance of public ownership seems now long gone.
Thanks for that, I stand corrected. Still upwards of £1/2m gone out of the club though. Small beer in the great scheme of things I suppose.
You very well may be right, but my assumption is sort of based on a feeling from watching Gazidis for a while. To me, it seems he always bristled against the way that Wenger was running things. Then he got his chance and found out that things weren't going to be the way he wanted. Removing Wenger maybe told him that his real beef was with the Kroenkes and not with Arsene, so he jumped to a very nice opportunity.
The thing I don’t get about the gazidis thing is why let it linger if it’s a legit story? If such good a deal why would gazidis “wait til September”. And if the board (kroenke) knows he is departing then, what is to gain by leaving him in place?
All the damage was done when Kroenke gained full control many years ago. Buying out Usmanov doesn’t really matter to me. There is too much missing information to know anyone’s motives. Since we all are speculating here, I will put mine forward. This sale has more to do with Usmanov finally deciding to move on than Kroenke wanting to own 100%. I would be keeping an eye on Usmanov and what moves he may make.
Doing business in Italy though is a major change of scene I suspect with taking Arsenal private, Stan doesn't want/need Ivan anymore - it is also quite a big shift in terms of who Ivan works for and what independence he had
I think it is certainly true that Usmanov was now more motivated to exit at last but also from Stan's point of view he road a wave where he didn't need to do anything except bank the gains but now what?
IIRC, Stan has tried to buy Usmanov’s shares in the past - even after it was mandatory. The thing that changed is now Usmanov is a seller. I don’t really know what Stan’s motives are. I think it is safe to say that he sees Arsenal as a long term value investment, but the club is in a weird spot. The truth is he has reacted (the new corporate hirings, the club audit, even on the field investments) to his investment going south on the field (although value still is high), but I only expect him and his son to be more reactive and not proactive.
I suspect that a lot of what is happening, especially the Gazidis thing, but maybe also the Usmanov thing, is driven by Josh.
You may be right. It wouldn't be surprising to see him take over as CEO/clubrunner or whatever they call it. From a financial perspective the Kroenkes are in an interesting place. They've realized a lot of growth in the value of their investment but also spent a lot of money to acquire that investment. I'm sure they will take money out of the club to pay off the debts, but they also need to maintain the performance on the field to retain the value of their asset.
This is what I’m not sure about—that kroenke will self finance the purchase with club revenue. He may, but it would be difficult. While he will be free to take profits from the club, there just isn’t that much profit in footy clubs to begin with. He’s spent what 1B£ or so buying the club? The interest on that amount alone would more than eat all of the clubs profits. Currently top prem clubs are spending 40-50% of revenue on wages alone. We are pretty much at 50 and that barely gets us a sniff at 4th. I don’t see how the club can pay huge debt and still compete to preserve his 1B investment. Makes more sense to allow the club to operate as is. I also see nothing about kroenke that makes me think he needs cash from the club. Estimates put him at owning about 30m square feet of commercial/retail real estate. While we don’t know what his income is, there are similar enterprises that are publicly traded. GGP has about 4x the retail space kroenke does and reports an EBITA of over $2.2B/year. So it’s not crazy to think that he has upwards of $500m in annual earnings from this enterprise alone. This dwarfs anything that AFC can produce for him.
This last part is nearly exactly what GiantGooner said (@mebeSajid references him above) on the Arsenalvision podcast the other day. I would really recommend anyone interested in this to listen to it. As mebeSajid noted, the guy works in M&A and specifically stated that he's done numerous deals involving UK companies. He was by no means a Kroenke cheerleader and said that while Kroenke's total control could allow him to more easily take out money or saddle the club with debt, there are many business/financial reasons why he would be unlikely to do so. Basically, GiantGooner's take was that, for better or for worse, not much is likely to change in how the club is currently run.
The podcast was fascinating - a lot of my earlier comments were based on the assumption that corporate law in the US (i.e. Delaware) was more or less identical to corporate law in the UK, and that's not the case. In this instance, the difference in disclosure requirements matters: there's still an element of disclosure that's required after Kroenke takes the club private. Maybe it won't be as timely or as robust as what we're used to, but it's probably enough for the likes of a SwissRamble post. That probably wouldn't be the case in the US.
First, I love Arsenal Vision podcast. It is probably my favorite football podcast. It could be about Spurs, and it would be great. But back to your point, GiantGooner also said that 18 premiership clubs - before Kroenke bought it outright - are privately owned, and Swiss Ramble is still able to do his reports on all of them. The reports will be fine LMAO!