Let's sign injured players to cover for our injured players - the summer transfer thread

It's several months away, but after a wholly successful winter transfer season (our only signing was an injured player signed to provide cover for our other injury players), it's never too early to begin discussing summer transfers. Besides, the winter transfer thread was >2k posts already.

Let's look at squad depth. I'm assuming that Arsenal will continue to play a 4-2-3-1 featuring one striker, two creative midfielders, two wing slots that Arsene will use for wide forwards/wide midfielders (e.g. Theo, Gnabry) or creative midfielders (e.g. Cazorla), one defensively-minded midfielder (Arteta, Flamini), and a typical back five with two CBs, LB, RB, GK.

(FYI, age given will their age one year from now)

 

Center Forwards / Strikers
Staying: Olivier Giroud (28), Yaya Sanogo (22),
Leaving: Nicklas Bendtner (27)
Coming back from loan: Chuba Akpom (19)
Not considered a CF: Theo Walcott (25)

CF is one of the areas where Arsenal fans have been calling for increase depth at minimum, with many wanting a better player taking most of the minutes with Giroud filling in against lesser sides and lesser competitions. Next year Bendtner will most likely be gone, exacerbating this problem. I'm still not sure Wenger will do much here, as he likely sees one of Sanogo and/or Akpom as our future striker and won't want to jeopardize their development.

I would disagree. Let's look at teams with better forwards than Giroud:

• Bayern Munich (Lewandowski, possibly Mandzukic if he stays)
• Man United (RVP, Rooney although he's better at second striker)
• Man City (Aguero, Negrado, possibly Dzeko)
• Liverpool (Suarez, possibly Sturridge)
• Barca (Messi, Neymar although he usually plays a wide forward spot)
• Atletico Madrid (Diego Costa)
• PSG (Ibrahimovic, Cavani)
• Monaco (Falcao)
• Napoli (Higuain)
• Juventus (Tevez)

That's not even including Real Madrid and Chelsea, whose strikers are approximately the same level as Giroud (Benzema, Lukaku if he returns from loan, Torres if he returns to form) and who can hardly be expected to sit back and not improve their squad during the summer.

If Arsenal want to compete with these teams in the CL, a world-class striker would be a huge boost. The difficult part is that out of the above list, very few players are potential targets. Suarez might be available if Liverpool miss the CL, but his price will be enormous (100M?). Cavani and Falcao might be attainable, but also for enormous fees. Diego Costa might be available due to Atletico's financial issues, but he seems to love Spain and wants to stay there. Dzeko and Mandzukic seem like the most likely possibilities, but we're still looking at large fees for either of them.

One potential alternative approach is to adopt a false-9 system that Messi-less Barca and Bayern have been experimenting with. The Germany NT has also tried this approach, even using Ozil as a false nine on occasion, but I don't think anyone believes this is Ozil's best spot. Part of the problem with this approach IMHO is that the modern 4-2-3-1 already requires strikers to have certain creative abilities usually associated with midfielders. Messi, Suarez, RVP, Aguero, etc. are all extremely creative players with key pass metrics rivaling the Ozil's and Silva's of the world. Although these players are rare, in this case it's clearly best for your CF to both score and create goals. In some ways, Giroud already does both of these, which is why he's a good CF overall. But he's not world-class at either job.

In short, the best case scenario seems to be spending 80-100M on a world-class striker. But unfortunately, this is also the least likely scenario. Hindsight is of course 20/20, but selling RVP for £24M was a huge mistake IMHO as was not signing Higuain for €37M.

The one wild-card here is Draxler, and players like him. Could Wenger convert him to CF? It's certainly an interesting option.

As an aside, I don't really believe in Theo's ability to play CF consistently. His strengths are shooting and dribbling, but not necessarily hold up play, aerial prowess, and passing. IMHO he's much better playing the winger role and should stay there.

 

Wide Forwards / Wide Midfielders
Staying: Theo Walcott (25), Serge Gnabry (19). Ryo Miyaichi (22)
Might be leaving: Lukas Podolski (29), Park Chu-Young (29)
Currently plays wide, future as CM: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (21)

As mentioned above, Arsene is prone to playing creative midfielders in these spots, which allows us to overload the midfield and swap positions a la totaalvoetbal but can also make the team narrow, easy to park the bus against, and reduce counter-attacking chances. I have a strong affinity for players like Robben and Ribery (and Ronaldo and Bale, if you exclude defensive work) who can spread the field, take on defenders, and create scoring opportunities for both themselves and teammates while at the same time providing defensive cover. But these players are rare.

Still, I think using Theo like Real uses Bale, and using Gnabry like Bayern uses Ribery is the ideal approach. Sure the talent disparity is large, but this approach provides Arsenal a different look and we already know Ozil works extremely well with fast wing players.

Right now, Arsenal have very limited depth on the wide positions. With Theo out (and we'll be lucky if he's back in time for the season to start; he might not truly regain form until Nov/Dec) and Ryo still a project, Gnabry has been seeing a significant bump in playing time. Podolski, despite a slew of injuries, hasn't seen much pitch time and I wouldn't be surprised to see him exit this summer. I hope he stays - despite whatever deficiencies Arsene sees, he's a scoring machine and presents us with a different look.

Even if Podolski stays, I hope Arsene brings in a new, natural wide player this summer, and not necessarily another CM who plays wide as part of his development (a la Oxlade-Chamberlain). If we don't, we're down to essentially two players (Theo, Gnabry) standing between the threat of becoming entirely one-dimensional. But this player doesn't need to be a high-value target, just someone to provide us with a bit of depth. This is one of the areas where I hope Arsene can work his magic and find a young player with great potential for cheap. Too bad we missed out on Hazard a few years ago; he's turned into quite the player.

 

Creative Midfielders
Staying: Mesut Ozil (26), Aaron Ramsey (24), Jack Wilshere (23), Santi Cazorla (30), Tomas Rosicky (34), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (21), Gedion Zelalem (18)

Arsene's favored 4-2-3-1 formation and tactics usually feature 3-4 creative midfielders: one playing as #10, one as a box-to-box player, and 1-2 as wide midfielders. As you would expect with Wenger's philosophy, all of these players regularly exchange places when Arsenal have the ball, selectively overloading parts of the midfield and confusing defenders. When it works, there's always someone unmarked; when it doesn't, Arsenal become one-dimensional.

This is one of the areas where I think Arsenal are set for both short- and long-term. Ozil, Ramsey and Wilshere are clearly the future of Arsenal's midfield with AOC providing cover and slotting in as a wide player for a while. Zelalem is also a promising talent and will soon be needing regular first-team minutes. I envision Wenger utilizing him like Gnabry this year - first-team training with then occasional playing time during the first half of the season, followed by more regular playing time in the second half of the season.

Ironically, while this is our area of least need, this is also one of the more likely areas that Wenger will add to. It always seems like 90% of our transfer targets are creative midfielders.

 

Defensive Midfielders
Staying: Mikel Arteta (32), Mathieu Flamini (30)

This seems like a real area of concern moving forward. At present (Feb 1), Arteta is coming off an injury and has had a rash of poor games over the last couple months. Flamini is out for four games after a horrible tackle and fully justified red card.

It's arguable that DM is an area of greater need than striker. Our current league position has much more to do with the DM+CB partnership than anything else. While Mertesacker and Koscielny deserve the lion's share of credit for both our goals allowed statistics as well as our high-quality chances allowed statistics, Arteta and/or Flamini have done a very good job of providing cover. The question is how effective either of these players will be going forward. Arteta has already appeared to age dramatically within this season, and he'll be 32 next year. Flamini will also turn 30.

Names like Paul Pogba (will be 21) and Morgan Schneiderlin (will be 25) have been thrown around, and I like both of those players. Regardless, I fear that if Arsene doesn't shore up this position, then Arsenal's new-found defensive prowess will diminish significantly.

 

Right Back
Staying: Bacary Sagna (31), Carl Jenkinson (22)

I'm assuming that Sagna will be resigned. If he isn't, this is another area where Arsene might be penny-wise, pound-foolish. Sagna is a key part of our squad - I'd go as far as saying he's more important to us than Ozil given the respective depth at both positions - and letting him go would be a terrible decision. We rely very heavily on our RB/LB to constantly move up and down the pitch providing width, and losing Sagna would hurt both offensively and defensively.

I don't rate Jenkinson at all. I know he's still young, so by all means hold onto his contract, but send him out on loan to see his potential. The ideal scenario would be for Wenger to bring in a younger RB with promise and use them to rotate with Sagna. I don't know that he's available, but Seamus Coleman at Everton is a very nice player and I'd love to bring him to Arsenal.

 

Left Back
Staying: Kieran Gibbs (25), Nacho Monreal (28)

Left back is one of the areas with greater depth. I don't rate Monreal that much as a starting left back - I think he can be a bit rash and has worse positional intuition than others - but he's an outstanding backup and keeping him to spell Gibbs is the ideal scenario. I also really like Gibbs and feel like he'll continue to develop into one of the world's better LB players.

 

Center Back
Staying: Per Mertesacker (30), Laurent Koscielny (29)
Possibly leaving: Thomas Vermaelen (29)

What else can be said about how incredible our primary CB combo of Mert/Kos has played this year? Over the last 12 months, they've made Vermaelen completely unnecessary except as depth. And, to be honest, this is the best scenario that could've happened.

The only problem with CB at the moment is depth. If Vermaelen will stay, I'd love to keep him. He's not a first-rate CB, but he's probably one of the better backups out there. Unfortunately, I think he'll be leaving in the summer, as someone will give him a starting job.

I wouldn't mind bringing in two new players at CB, preferably younger players with promise who won't mind serving as depth for a few years. While Mert and Kos are both slightly older, CBs tend to age very well and - if they stay healthy - their partnership might last 3-5 more years.

 

Goalkeeper
Staying: Wojciech Szczesny (24), Lukasz Fabianski (29)
Leaving: Emiliano Viviano (29)

I'm pretty happy with our goalkeeping situation. Szczesny will only get better, and he's already improved significantly over the last year. He's not quite world-class yet, but he's showing signs of getting there. Fabianski is a solid backup, so the only thing Wenger will need to add is another third-string keeper.

 

Summary
Striker: need to sign someone - preferably a world-class player but at minimum, depth players to cover for Giroud
Wide players: it'd be nice to sign someone here, even if just for depth in case Theo/Gnabry go down
Creative midfield: No real needs. Good players, good prospects, good depth.
Defensive midfield: Major area of need along with striker. I'm not convinced Arteta and Flamini will be enough next year.
Right back: We're in good shape if we resign Sagna, but I'd like a replacement for Jenkinson.
Left back: Solid shape here. Gibbs and Monreal are both solid options.
Center backs: May Mertescielny live forever! But we'll need depth here, especially if Vermaelen moves on.
GK: Good shape here IMHO.

 

Deadline day was yesterday. Next chance Arsenal have to sign someone is in July.

 

Nah, last year there were two or three threads about summer transfers between Feb 1 and when the summer transfer window opened. The old transfer thread was >2k posts, which is the mods' preference for closing/starting new threads. The next transfer window is the summer. Ergo, summer transfer window thread.

Or don't you know that transfer mania lasts year round?