Japan's Last 3 vs US Youth WNT -- by the numbers

I see absolutely nothing wrong with being out-shot quantity-wise IF the defense forced those shots to be low percentage shots as they did at U20 WWC. I don't even mind the possession being skewed, again, depending on the style of play chosen for that game.

But, to have 0 shots on goal in a game doesn't work. The shots on goal and the final goal tallies are where it's bad. Forcing opponents into low percentage outside shots is good defense, but never getting a shot on goal yourself is obviously a bad offense.

 

Well, I admit I didn't watch the other USA games at U-17 and U-20 WWC games entirely, but I don't think most of Japan's chances in the matches vs USA that we're talking about here can legitimately be labeled as "low-percentenge shots".

This can probably be true if we talk about the USA-Mexico game at U-20 WWC, but, for instance, a lot of Japan's chances vs USA in the third place match at the same tournament were actual "high-percentage" shots from inside the box, that were saved by difficult GK's deflections or woodwork.
In the tri-nations match, then, those chances were so far from "low-percentage" that one third of them (5 out o 15) actually went in. So this argoment sounds quite moot to me, at least if we talk about these particular matches vs Japan that PacmanJr_00 brought out (could be somehow valid for other different US matches, vs Mexico or Korea or other, but I am not sure about that).

 

I remember two very good saves by the US goal keeper in the US third place match. There were some other decent chances that went just wide by Japan. There were quality opportunities but a combination of poor finishing and good GK saves kept the score in check. The problem for the US wasn't their defensive work, which was very good, it was that they couldn't keep the ball and create anything themselves. Eventually that defense will wear down and break.

 

Well, shidt, we're completely Fvuhcht at the the 2023 World Cup.

We'll just have to hope Japan misses the frame on all 30 shots they get, and that Ashley Sanchez scores on USA's only shot of the entire match, since she does know how to score on Japan (or even draw a penalty kick).

But if that scenario doesn't happen, then the USWNT is completely screwed royal against Japan in 2023 (and 2027).

We'll just have to hope Japan's current youth players regress drastically from age 21 - onward.
North Korea always finds a way to do that. Maybe Japan will too (although not likely, as they develop well now).

 

Just commenting on the U20 3rd place match. By far most of Japan's shots were low percentage shots. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25 out of 29. But it's those 5 or so high percentage shots that Japan earned that mattered. If Japan had chosen not to shoot the low percentage shots then the shots statistic would look less alarming, but the final result of the game would've stayed the same due to the few high quality opportunities Japan made and the US did not.

I attribute (right or wrong) Japan being able to earn more high quality opportunities than the US largely on the US not attempting to build out of the back. The US had the ability to play out of the back (shown by first 5-10 minutes of the match) but for one reason or another didn't attempt to do so most of the match. This gave Japan the ball to have an almost constant attack.

Also, want to add, I'm not trying to say in some round-about way that the US was better than Japan. Absolutely not. I'm just looking at what area I think the US needs to work on to improve in the future. Just looking at the stats some might say, "Oh, our defense (US) needs a lot of work!" But I believe that to be misinterpreting the stats.

All that said, I really enjoyed watching this Japan team. They seem to have kept the same short pass possession style Japan is known for while also adding elements that almost seem counter like the occasional direct ball over the top in a way that complements very well.

 

Updated for contrast ...

shots(sog)
WWC-20 Japan 15(8)-(1)2 USA (tri-nations)
WWC-17 Japan 22(9)-(7)10 USA (WWC-17 group)
WWC-20 Japan 29(8)-(0)3 USA (WWC-20 semi)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WWC-17 Japan 24(5)-(3)7 Korea DPR (WWC-17 final)
MLS Toronto FC 19(7)-(0)3 Seattle Sounders (MLS Cup)

goals
WWC-20 Japan 5-0 USA (tri-nations)
WWC-17 Japan 3-2 USA (WWC-17 group)
WWC-20 Japan 1-0 USA (WWC-20 semi)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WWC-17 Japan 0-0 Korea DPR (WWC-17 final)
MLS Toronto FC 0-0 Seattle Sounders (MLS Cup)

kftpm(misses)
WWC-17 Japan 4(1)-(0)5 Korea DPR (WWC-17 final)
MLS Toronto FC 4(2)-(1)5 Seattle Sounders (MLS Cup)

soccer trolls us all

 

Did Venezuela also out-shoot and out-possess Michelle French's U-20 team?
It looks like they didn't.

We can settle to be about the 6th best U-20 team in the world, and feel good about it.

 

Ok, I guess Seattle proved me wrong, haha.

 

And Stanford just proved - two games in a row! - that you don't need to score goals to win a Championship. {They did take shots, of course.}

On the men's side we don't have the talent to compete with the elite teams, but on the women's side we certainly, and obviously, do. What we need is better coaching, better communication of what we're trying to do ourselves (in possession, in attack) and how (on defense) we're planning to frustrate our opponents from doing what they want to do. Hustle and intensity (and good goal-keeping) are important, but not sufficient.

 

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

 

As someone who has had experience with blindness (n0t my own, but someone very close to me), this is a very poor analogy. For a blind squirrel to find a nut is next to miraculous. For one to find a nut more than once, it just doesn't happen.

 

A broken clock stops two Panenkas a day!

 

I think one of our issues with the youth NT is that the kids don't play together enough. It was mentioned that some/many on Japan's u20 squad had been playing together since 2012! Our squad played together, off and on, for a few months. Selection might be another issue--and indeed there were collegiate players who would have been on the U20 team and starting but elected to stay at school--I'm talking about Stanford players in particular. One reason that we're much better at the senior level is that the chemistry is better, IMO--the players have been together a lot longer.

We might have been able to play counter-attacking football against Japan---and Pugh and Sanchez are certainly players who can be very effective in a counter-attacking role--but you have to have SOME midfield play and possession for that to work. We had almost none. You have to win the ball somewhere in front of your box. The U.S. team played way too deep and defensively to be effective once they got the ball. Everybody was sunk back close to our box--Pugh was coming WAY back to help in defense. And with some many Japanese players forward, we struggled to possess out of the box, when we tried to. If you can't challenge and win balls in midfield, you are in trouble. It is one thing to be out-possessed, but it can't be as lopsided as it was in this game. I don't know how much was personnel and how much tactics, probably both--but we looked pretty helpless except for the first 10 minutes and early part of second half.